Passing = winning in the NFL
By Gregg Easterbrook
Page 2
Kerry Collins goes out, Vince Young comes in, and immediately the Titans snap to life, winning four straight games. JaMarcus Russell goes out, Bruce Gradkowski comes in, and immediately the Raiders snap to life, with a major win. In Russell's case, he has 17 career touchdown passes versus 35 interceptions and fumbles lost; he does not command the huddle, and shows no leadership skills. It's time to ask -- is Russell the new Ryan Leaf? (In saying this, I don't mean to insult Leaf.)
In Young's case, he does have a good sense of the field and leadership skills -- it's no coincidence Young is 22-11 as an NFL starter. Football is a team game, and there's always a lot more going on than who lines up at quarterback. But the dramatic examples in Oakland and Tennessee of success based on quarterback changes remind us that quarterback remains the key position in the sport.
The relationship between quarterback effectiveness and victory underscores the pre-eminence of the pass in the NFL. None of the top four rushing teams in the NFL this season (Tennessee, N.Y. Jets, Carolina and Miami) has a winning record. By contrast, 11 of the top 12 passing teams have winning records. Right now there are 14 NFL teams with winning records, and only three of those clubs are in the lower half of the league in terms of passing yards.
Considering the centrality of passing effectiveness to NFL success, you'd think everything there is to figure out about game planning for the pass has been figured out, right? Surprisingly, in an era of stats obsession and assistant coaches with laptops, this is not the case. NFL teams should pass more often on first down than they do. The indicators are strong. Yet, week in and week out, many NFL teams predictably rush on first down.
Last season, the teams that passed most on first down were New Orleans (58 percent), Denver, (58), Arizona (58) and Houston (54). And the top offensive teams of 2008 were New Orleans, Denver, Houston and Arizona. This outcome was not ironclad -- Atlanta finished sixth on offense last season, and passed a league-low 31 percent of the time on first down. But in general last season, throwing frequency on first down directly correlated with offensive success.
This season, the case for throwing on first down remains. Here are the 10 teams that pass most often on first down: Chicago (60 percent), Seattle (60), Philadelphia (59), Tampa (55), Arizona (54), New England (54), San Francisco (53), Indianapolis (52), Green Bay (51) and Houston (51). Five of those teams have winning records, and five of the teams (New England, Indianapolis, Green Bay, Arizona and Houston) that pass most often on first down are in the top 10 for total offense. On the opposite side of the coin, here are the 10 teams that run most often on first down: N.Y. Jets (72 percent), St. Louis (61), Tennessee (59), Cincinnati (59), Minnesota (58), Cleveland (57), Carolina (57), Buffalo (56) and San Diego (56). Only three of the teams most likely to run on first down have winning records, and only one (Minnesota) is in the top 10 in total offense. Tuesday Morning Quarterback thanks Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders, hands-down the best independent Web site about football, for compiling these stats.
Passing success on first down shouldn't come as a surprise. Most of the time, NFL defensive coordinators put out a rush defense on first down. You'd rather throw against a rush defense than against a pass defense. First down is also a good down for the play-fake; nobody buys the play-fake on third-and-long. Yet, at least for the past decade, NFL teams as a group have rushed more often on first down than they've passed. The mindset seems to be, "First down is when you run."
Since pass attempts average more yards gained than rushes (7.1 yards per pass attempt versus 4.1 yards per rush leaguewide in 2008), people sometimes ask why football teams don't simply always pass. The answer is, this would allow the defense to always be in a pass-defense package -- forcing the defense to be ready for either a run or a pass makes the pass more effective. Considering first down is when defenses are most likely to assume run, why not feature the pass then? Why wait until third down, when -- unless it's a short-yardage situation -- defenses assume a pass is coming? (And rightly so, since NFL teams passed the ball 76 percent of the time on third down last season.)
In Christmas-is-coming news, man of the worldly mind, do you believe in the Crabtree Curse? San Francisco was 3-1 before signing Michael Crabtree and is 1-5 since. Do you believe in the Kern Kurse? As noted by reader Diego Arias of Delray Beach, Fla., the Broncos were 6-0 with Brett Kern as their punter, and have gone 0-4 since waiving him. The Titans were 0-6 without Kern, and are 4-0 since claiming him off waivers from Denver.
In college football news, even TMQ would have punted! Leading Harvard 10-7 with 3:24 remaining in the fourth quarter, Yale faced fourth-and-22 on its own 25-yard line -- and went for it! The call was a fake punt. Fake kicks are most attractive when only a few yards are needed for the first down. The fake gained 15 yards, but that still handed Harvard the ball on the Yale 40-yard line; Harvard scored the game-winning touchdown four snaps later. Courage on fourth down is one thing; going for it on fourth-and-22 in your own territory when holding the lead is what, exactly? Somehow, Bill Belichick must be behind this.
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