Martha Careful
a month ago
The misses (and foul balls) on 1st and 2nd Picks is starting to take its toll

RCon14 wrote

It looks like Lukas Van Ness isn’t close
The second-year defensive end looks firmly placed as DE4 to start the season.

By rcon14 Sep 10, 2024, 9:39am CDT 18 Comments / 1 New

A few weeks back after his nice pre-season outing against the Cleveland Browns, I broke down the pass-rushing snaps from that game for Green Bay Packers second-round defensive end Lukas Van Ness and came away much less impressed with his overall performance than I did on first watch. The same strengths were apparent. Van Ness is very strong and has the prototypical defensive end build, and you can see it on tape when his bull rush connects. Unfortunately, the same problems were still glaring. Van Ness looks very stiff as a pass rusher, frequently getting washed out when trying to run the loop, and looking uncomfortable with his hand usage, leading him to regularly rely on his bull rush, which while good, is not a recipe for consistent success at the NFL level.

At this point in time, it looks like the Packers agree with a more bearish assessment of where Van Ness is. Van Ness was a distant fourth in the defensive snap counts for Packers defensive ends. Preston Smith led the unit with 54, then Rashan Gary at 49. JJ Enagbare was the clear third defensive end at 30, and then Van Ness pulled up the rear at 19. And this was not a game where the starters were providing a ton of production or Enagbare had a breakout game. Gary collected one sack, but he had a disappointing 12.5% pressure rate, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Preston Smith had a pressure rate of just 7.1%, and Enagbare of just 6.3%. The Packers' defensive end group was almost non-existent in the game, as the Eagles admittedly good offensive tackles completely shut them down. What was Van Ness’ pressure rate? 0%. Now, Van Ness only had 11 pass-rushing snaps in the game, so it isn’t a meaningful sample, but Van Ness did not register a single pressure (though he did register a stop in the run game, he’s still useful there!).

I do want to give Van Ness some credit, as depending on the system being used, this one could be considered a pressure.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1833506563744494065 

Then there’s this one, where Hurts slips past LVN and then ices the game by truck sticking Stokes back to the States.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1833507240436756691 

Van Ness still has some usefulness as a run defender, but with Green Bay playing mostly single-high shells, that skillset is just far less useful under Jeff Hafley than it was in the two-high quarters/post-snap spin world that Joe Barry lived in.

The rest of the pass rush snaps from Friday are a combination of some quick-game snaps where pressure isn’t really able to be generated or Van Ness bull-rushing into Jordan Mailata and getting swallowed up. No one in the Packers EDGE room had much success this week, and so that is less the issue for me, but that the Packers coaching staff clearly favors Enagbare over Van Ness is not a great sign for his future. Enagbare has been a nice surprise, as most Day 3 defensive ends produce little-to-nothing, but his pressure rates have been more fine than actually good (12-15%).

The idea for Van Ness as a project behind two veteran players was more akin to Rashan Gary, but Gary produced pressure rates of 16% after a semi-redshirt rookie season (where his pressure rate was about 13%). Van Ness would need to literally double his pressure rate from his rookie to get to Gary’s rate. Van Ness' rookie season pressure rate compares to mostly off-ball linebackers and nose tackles, and while it was only just one game against a very good tackle duo, it hasn’t been a pretty start to 2024, and it looks like the coaching staff doesn’t see a breakout coming soon either.


Go Packers!!!!
bboystyle
a month ago
ill wait for judgement by week 6
beast
a month ago
It's one game into his second year...

Favre, Rodgers, Love, Adams, Nelson, Gary and so many others looked like bums at this point into their careers as well...

Like it or not, Gute drafts for most upside potential, which often means they're not as ready to go, as they would of been drafted sooner, and they need some time to develop.

Wyatt is a year further into his career, also a 1st rounder and probably going to remain a backup, as he's not going to beat out Clark and he's not a NT so he has to be backup penetrator at this point. But we don't hear about him.
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Zero2Cool
a month ago
It's like folks didn't learn from Rashan Gary. And in Lukas Van Ness situation he went from OLB as rookie to DE in 2nd year and we lose our collective minds.

Anyhow, it's kind of fascinating how I read Gutekunst draft doing good, and then he's awful.

Three years people, it takes three years to evaluate a draft and drafted individual.
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Martha Careful
a month ago

Like it or not, Gute drafts for most upside potential, which often means they're not as ready to go, as they would of been drafted sooner, and they need some time to develop.

Originally Posted by: beast 

High ceiling are great, I also want a higher floor, and right now he should be doing alot better than the number 4 guy at his position

It's like folks didn't learn from Rashan Gary.
...
Three years people, it takes three years to evaluate a draft and drafted individual.

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 

I am still not sold on Gary, especially given the $$$$. He did very little Sunday albeit against an All-Pro. But if you are supposed to be a stud, i expect more than just one sack after the OT had stopped because he thought the whistle had blown.

I expect more/sooner. If we have to wait 3 years for guys, we will never have a champion ship caliber roster.

Go Packers!!!!
Zero2Cool
a month ago

High ceiling are great, I also want a higher floor, and right now he should be doing alot better than the number 4 guy at his position
I am still not sold on Gary, especially given the $$$$. He did very little Sunday albeit against an All-Pro. But if you are supposed to be a stud, i expect more than just one sack after the OT had stopped because he thought the whistle had blown.

Originally Posted by: Martha Careful 


I thought he had a decent first at DE from being OLB last several years. He got some pressure and even got that sack that I think forced a punt.

I expect more/sooner. If we have to wait 3 years for guys, we will never have a champion ship caliber roster.

Originally Posted by: Martha Careful 


Those picks in the top half of round one, absolutely need more from then sooner than later. Guys in the 20's or so I can see being projects, but you can't load up your team with projects. Which is what it seems Gutekunst does with 1st round picks.

Bottom line though, bottom or top of the round, other teams are finding guys who can contribute in year one or year two. I don't know if teams are doing it consistently or if it's just where scouting is at and it's a miss. I just don't feel the Packers are missing more than other teams.

I'm with you though that you can't keep burning (harsh word) 1st round picks on projects. That OL we drafted, I expect him to be starting by mid point of the season. I don't care where, but you can't use 1st round on an OL just for him to sit a year. Lukas Van Ness showed good things in year one as a rookie OLB. Now he's DE and has to get his crap together. Others have done it, so he needs to as well.
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wpr
  • wpr
  • Preferred Member
a month ago
That's it. Get him off the team. Have him clean his locker out right now.

Oh wait. He's 23 years old. The Packers are still going to pay him. His cap hit this year is less than $4 million. The dead cap hit is more than $14 million. Next year he will only cost $4.7 million and have a dead cap hit of $10 million. His pay ranks him as the 42nd DE.

I guess that means we as fans can complain about him but he is not going anywhere for at least two season. Perhaps by then he will get the hang of what he has to do in order to succeed in the NFL.

Like it or not most players need a few years time before they meet their full potential.
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bboystyle
29 days ago
Lets just relax. Gary is a top player in his position. Week one on a crappy field in a new system doesnt tell how his year will come. Same with Van Ness.

Week 1 always brings out the worse in us fans. Look at all the QBs in week one. 99% of them looked rusty and out of tune. No one is clamoring for them to step it up or they are a waste of money. Give it time. Our players will gel. No team comes out of week 1 firing on all cylinders all the way to the super bowl.
go.pack.go.
29 days ago


Wyatt is a year further into his career, also a 1st rounder and probably going to remain a backup, as he's not going to beat out Clark and he's not a NT so he has to be backup penetrator at this point. But we don't hear about him.

Originally Posted by: beast 



You are correct, but Wyatt was at least showing fairly consistent flashes in pass rush opportunities.

As previously stated, it’s only 1 game into his second year, but we need to start seeing some more flashes.
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beast
29 days ago

High ceiling are great, I also want a higher floor

Originally Posted by: Martha Careful 


And I want to eat whatever I like without having to worry about gaining weight or it being negative for me in some way...

But sadly that's not the reality that we live in.

I thought he had a decent first at DE from being OLB last several years. He got some pressure and even got that sack that I think forced a punt.

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 


Meh, 3-4 OLB and 4-3 DE are mostly the exact same positions other than maybe the starting stance and when you have to drop your hips. I'm not going to give him that excuse, especially with his DT background, it should be more in his comfort zone, not less.

If we're going to give Van Ness a switching position excuse, I think it should be from being a college DT, to now playing the edge rusher, as even his last year, when he supposedly switched to Edge Rushers, still about half of his snaps come from the interior DT spots.

So Van Ness basically only has 1.5 years (plus one game) at the edge rusher role.



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