beast
2 years ago

I can't stress this enough, not being a dick, but how the hell do you know this? lol I feel numbers should be so freaking easy, but each time I think 'EUREKA' it turns out I'm a confused as a three dollar bill!

I appreciate your patience and effort on this btw.

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 

That's like asking me how I know NFL rules. I watch the game, and learn the rules and research stuff when it doesn't make sense to me. It probably also helps that I work in accounting. Like how do you know how to set up and develop a website? Oh, you work.in tech.

The cap is simply an accounting system set up by the NFL to spread signing bonuses equally over the first 5 year of contract signed. (Or less if the contract is less than 5 years).

If a players is released or traded, then 100% of the unaccounted for signing bonus (that was spread into future years) must be fully accounted for in the next following year.

With the exception if they use a post June destination when cutting said players (teams get two post June destination per year) or if the team actually waits until post June, then it must be fully accounted for in the next two years.

The NFL accounting is a hell lot simpler than GAAP accounting.


The really hard part is when media and fans start talking about Dead cap and Cap Hits, because it involves money that's already been paid out in years past but has not been accounted for. 

People  understand paid money that's been accounted for and unpaid money that has not been accounted for... as that's basically cash basis which is simply dealing with cash money.

It the accrual basis that confuses the hell out of people, which is simply money that was paid out at a previous time, but they have not yet accounted for it being paid out.


I remember on here, Julius Peppers had a cap hit for like $15 million, and people were demanding he take a reduction. One person said he needed to come down to $12 million for this year.

But here the thing, he's contract call for only $12 millions in new money for that year, with accounting for an additional $3 million in dead money which he was already paid and was basically his first year pay.

So for long term contracts, the first year pay is usually mostly wrapped up in signing bonus, which is the spread equally over the first 5 years of however long the contract is, which is why the deals are backloaded and you don't need as much money for the first year of an extension.
​​​​​​
 
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Zero2Cool
2 years ago

That's like asking me how I know NFL rules. I watch the game, and learn the rules and research stuff when it doesn't make sense to me. It probably also helps that I work in accounting. Like how do you know how to set up and develop a website? Oh, you work.in tech.​ 

Originally Posted by: beast 



The rules are in a book that can be read, so that's how I'd guess you knew the rules. I know a lot of people who watch football and have zero clue about the rules. As for how do I know how to setup a website? I was doing it for fun far before professionally and the how is trial and error and reading. 

So, I really am not sure I understand how you know how the contract is going to work without seeing the contract itself. That is what confuses me most about these websites that have the contract numbers. They have a general principle to them -- I assume. You mentioned dead cap, cap hit, and all that. That's where the confusion is with me as well. I see many outlets saying X and then Y for the same exact thing. It's like they see a car and they call it a Pinto, and then someone else confidently calls it an Escort. And if you don't know the difference, you're just left thinking it's a tiny car. Granted, most probably couldn't give a damn. 

I've been reading things here and there, and I still think it's better to trade Aaron Rodgers post-June 1st.  If it's about paying this year vs next year, I'd rather post June. The numbers just look better for Packers. Couldn't they use that freed up cap space for signing bonus on the guys I mentioned before? Then again, our 2024 roster doesn't have too many players signed so maybe the pay me now approach is better than pay me later.

All in all here, I am glad I don't gotta do this crap for a living. The NFL makes things too complicated.
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beast
2 years ago


I've been reading things here and there, and I still think it's better to trade Aaron Rodgers post-June 1st.  If it's about paying this year vs next year, I'd rather post June. The numbers just look better for Packers. Couldn't they use that freed up cap space for signing bonus on the guys I mentioned before? Then again, our 2024 roster doesn't have too many players signed so maybe the pay me now approach is better than pay me later.

All in all here, I am glad I don't gotta do this crap for a living. The NFL makes things too complicated.

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 

You're confusing cash vs accounting again.

Signing guys to extensions with signing bonus will cost the Packers a lot of cash but it'll actually free up accounting because the signing bonuses get spread over the first 5 years of the contract.

So no, we don't need more cap space for extensions, as the extensions themselves will free up the cap space (but get rid of cash).


Also, have you considered this, if you wait to June to trade Rodgers, that means the Packers don't get a single draft pick for Rodgers in 2023, because the draft happens before June.

The only reasons to wait post June are1) Too piss off the Jets and Rodgers and demand more.
2) Sign FAs in 2023
3) Sign 2023 draft picks (looks like they're going to cost about $11 million)


But considering the Packers don't seem to even be attempting to do #2... and they already have the cap space for #3 .... the question becomes is #1 worth it enough to miss out of additional 2023 draft picks?

And that depends on what the Jets are offering and if you truly believe you can squeeze out more from them.
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Zero2Cool
2 years ago

You're confusing cash vs accounting again.

Originally Posted by: beast 


My friend, I assure you, there are much more things that I an confusing that just those two! I did however hear someone say the Post June 1 trade means Packers hit $15  million on 2023 and $24 million on 2024 which is what I think you were trying to get through my dumb skull. 

So, with that understood (cross fingers), I would suspect the Packers complete the trade in the month of MAY. Why you ask? My golly gosh I am so tickled you asked! I think the Packers want 2024 draft capital more than they want 2023 draft capital as they presumably know they will not get 13th overall. My reasoning is simple. Salary Cap space. I don't think they're tanking in 2023, however, I do feel they know they're gonna need a year of "meh" and not swing for the fences. And two 1st round draft picks? I mean ... money money money.


I'd like to bounce something else into this thread. Do you think it irks Aaron Rodgers that the Jets felt the likes of Chad Pennington, Mark Sanchez, Sam Darnold and 
Zach Wilson were all worth 1st round pick, but he isn't? I mean, assuming Packers want a first round and assuming Jets are refusing -- of course.  Do you also think Rodgers wants to be traded for a higher pick than Brett Favre was? I know it sounds trivial and stupid, but athletes are competitive as heck. And we all know Rodgers can hold a grudge. 

Something else flew between my ears. What if the trade compensation is completed/agreed but the hang up is the "adjustment" to Aaron Rodgers contract? Rodgers chose his words carefully when he told Pat McAfee that his decision to play was not what was hanging things up. I would have to listen to it again, but I believe he was focusing his words about him not being the issue pertaining to his desire to play/not play. Either way, it makes me curious.
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beast
2 years ago


So, with that understood (cross fingers), I would suspect the Packers complete the trade in the month of MAY. Why you ask? My golly gosh I am so tickled you asked! I think the Packers want 2024 draft capital more than they want 2023 draft capital as they presumably know they will not get 13th overall. My reasoning is simple. Salary Cap space. I don't think they're tanking in 2023, however, I do feel they know they're gonna need a year of "meh" and not swing for the fences. And two 1st round draft picks? I mean ... money money money.


I'd like to bounce something else into this thread. Do you think it irks Aaron Rodgers that the Jets felt the likes of Chad Pennington, Mark Sanchez, Sam Darnold and Zach Wilson were all worth 1st round pick, but he isn't? I mean, assuming Packers want a first round and assuming Jets are refusing -- of course.  

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 


That's assuming they can get better value from the Jets in 2024, which might be correct, but I'm not sure it is, and expect the Jets are refusing to give up a 1st in any year for a player that was 90% going to retire a month ago.

And I think Rodgers understands a team wanting to pay as little as possible. Fun fact: Jets are one of the few teams that did not pass on drafting him in 2005, of course they did draft a Kicker in round 2 ahead of Nick Collins and many others, so yeah.

I think the Packers are rebuilding (at least for a year), or reloading if you prefer, but I think they'd want those picks now as rookies often take at least a year to gel and this way they'll be ready to go next year.


Also, I'm wild guessing here, but I think the Packers are going to be drafting offense because both we need offensive players and to try to make Love look more successful.

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Zero2Cool
2 years ago
Nice nugget on Jets not skipping him in 2005, but I don't think Rodgers would have made it to 26 anyway so doubt that factors into anything. 

I think the Packers are rebuilding (at least for a year), or reloading if you prefer, but I think they'd want those picks now as rookies often take at least a year to gel and this way they'll be ready to go next year.

Also, I'm wild guessing here, but I think the Packers are going to be drafting offense because both we need offensive players and to try to make Love look more successful. ​​​​​

Originally Posted by: beast 

Yes, I've said that a few times that I think the Packers are knowingly taking their medicine in 2023.

As for wanting Jordan Love to be successful, I think this is a BS thing to say. The Packers couldn't care less how Love looks. They want to be successful, period. And the QB is a major part of that. The way that comment comes off is they'll sacrifice the team in favor of how Love looks. It's quite simple here. The Packers had elite QB so they felt they could get Tier 2 offensive talent and their elite QB would elevate that talent. Now they have a Tier 2 (optimistically speaking) so they will likely need to add more Tier 1 talent around him. 
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buckeyepackfan
2 years ago

DID GUTE JUST BLINK?

Packers GM Brian Gutekunst just spoke at the NFL owners meetings in Phoenix…
Here’s a recap of what he had to say (per Tom Pelissero) 
⬇️
-There’s no timeline on trading QB Aaron Rodgers, hoping for soon 
-The Packers don’t necessarily need a first round pick in return from the Jets 
-Any chance Rodgers plays for GB again? It’s not trending that way, but “all options are on the table”
I was addicted to The Hokey Pokey, but I turned myself around!
Zero2Cool
2 years ago

DID GUTE JUST BLINK?

Packers GM Brian Gutekunst just spoke at the NFL owners meetings in Phoenix…
Here’s a recap of what he had to say (per Tom Pelissero) 
⬇️
-There’s no timeline on trading QB Aaron Rodgers, hoping for soon 
-The Packers don’t necessarily need a first round pick in return from the Jets 
-Any chance Rodgers plays for GB again? It’s not trending that way, but “all options are on the table”

Originally Posted by: buckeyepackfan 


Nicely laid out! I still hate this editor though.

You can only assume someone blinked if you believe the rumors. This is why rumors and hyperbole are stupid as hell. It sets expectations based on false narratives. Be careful what you believe!
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beast
2 years ago
I think some of us already picked up on, unlikely to be a guaranteed 1st round pick. But question still is what's the overall comp amount.


Also, there better be something in there, where if the Jets win a Super Bowl with Rodgers in the next two years, then we do get a 2025 1st round pick, and I would try to also if he wins an MVP in there as well, to lower the bar a bit.


But there still be a bit difference if we're talking about multiple 2nds or just a single 3rd type compensation.

Being biased I'm hoping for multiple 2nds being the base guarantee and conditional picks on top of that.
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Zero2Cool
2 years ago

I think some of us already picked up on, unlikely to be a guaranteed 1st round pick. But question still is what's the overall comp amount.

Also, there better be something in there, where if the Jets win a Super Bowl with Rodgers in the next two years, then we do get a 2025 1st round pick, and I would try to also if he wins an MVP in there as well, to lower the bar a bit.

But there still be a bit difference if we're talking about multiple 2nds or just a single 3rd type compensation.

Being biased I'm hoping for multiple 2nds being the base guarantee and conditional picks on top of that.

Originally Posted by: beast 



I've been hoping for 2023 first round, 2024 first round and 2025 first round. My expectations are much different and they're more around the Favre compensation. If Packers get more than that, yeehaw, if they get less than that, meh, I'll still destroy everyone in Madden either way.
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dfosterf (13-Aug) : The LVN Musgrave collision- Andy Herman said Musgrave seemed to be the one most impacted injury-wise
dfosterf (13-Aug) : a lower back injury
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Mucky Tundra (13-Aug) : With LVN that is; need to see what happens in the next practice
Mucky Tundra (13-Aug) : beast, reading about what happened, it sounded like one of those "two guys collide and are moving slow afterwards" type of deals
beast (12-Aug) : I believe Musgrave has been injured every single season since at least a Sophomore in highschool
packerfanoutwest (12-Aug) : Matt LaFleur: “Highly unlikely” Jordan Love plays more this preseason
dfosterf (12-Aug) : Doubs, Savion Williams, LVN, Musgrave all banged up to one degree or another, missing one here I forget
Zero2Cool (12-Aug) : RB Tyrion Davis-Price is signing with the Green Bay Packers.
Zero2Cool (12-Aug) : zero help, dominated. preseason
beast (12-Aug) : QB Jordan Love has surgery
beast (12-Aug) : Martha said Morgan had a lot of help, I didn't watch the OL so I can't say.
Zero2Cool (10-Aug) : Packers LT Jordan Morgan did not allow a single pressure across 23 pass-blocking snaps vs. Jets last night, per PFF
Mucky Tundra (10-Aug) : With buckeye and the reasonable couple, we're currently sitting at 10
buckeyepackfan (10-Aug) : Just posted to re-up on our FFL.
Zero2Cool (10-Aug) : If healthy after, then thats all I care. Well, no drops would be nice
wpr (10-Aug) : I made it through the 1st Q.
dfosterf (10-Aug) : Just gotta figure out how.
dfosterf (10-Aug) : Could have been a worse start, so there is that.
beast (10-Aug) : Yeah, someone tell the Packers football season has started, seems like they weren't ready for it
Mucky Tundra (10-Aug) : Sooooooo many penalties
Mucky Tundra (10-Aug) : It may only be preseason, but this game is a trip to the dentist
Zero2Cool (10-Aug) : Packers do bad -- FREAK OUT!!!!!!
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dfosterf (10-Aug) : Well that half was fun
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Zero2Cool (9-Aug) : Woo-hoo
TheKanataThrilla (9-Aug) : NFL Network is broadcasting the game tonight, but not in Canada. Not sure why as no local television is showing the game.
beast (8-Aug) : But the Return from IR designations had to be applied by the 53 man cutdown.
beast (8-Aug) : It's a new rule, so it's not clear, but my understanding was that they could be IR'd at any time
Mucky Tundra (8-Aug) : *had to be IRed at 53
Mucky Tundra (8-Aug) : beast, I thought the designate return from IR players had to be IR at cutdowns to 53, not before
beast (8-Aug) : It's a brand new rule, either last season or this season, prior, all pre-season IRs were done for the season
beast (8-Aug) : But the Packers would have to use one for their return from IR spots on him, when they cut down to 53.
beast (8-Aug) : I think the NFL recently changed the IR rules, so maybe the season might not be over for OL Glover.
Zero2Cool (8-Aug) : Packers star Howton, first NFLPA prez, dies at 95 😔
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