Hey guys! It’s been a minute.
I have no clue what the compensation will be. There are too many variables and a lot of wishful thinking coming from media and fans. Nevertheless, here's some random thoughts on a trade package.
The Packers are sitting on a terrible contract with Rodgers. The Jets can help bail them out of this contract, assuming they convince Rodgers to restructure. On Pat McAfee earlier in the year, Rodgers indicated he's open to doing that under the right circumstances. I have to think that factors into any compensation. I know some have reported that executives are torn on whether that matters, but the salary cap is a big deal for the Packers as they begin to build a younger team around Jordan Love. In other words, the Jets have leverages in that regard.
Woody Johnson has made it clear they want Rodgers and the Jets need a veteran QB. I can’t imagine the owner of the team being satisfied with Jimmy Garropolo as the starting QB because the Packers insisted on a first and the Jets wouldn’t move off an offer of a second. The Jets have been too open about their interest. Anything less than Rodgers in New York is disappointing, especially if the Jets finish outside the playoffs next year. Furthermore, pressure is on Joe Douglas and Robert Saleh to produce a winner. If they fail to make the playoffs in 2023, they could be without a job. To me, the Packers have leverage in that aspect of a potential trade.
The value of quarterbacks is just astronomical. Matt Ryan netted a 3rd round pick a year ago. Rodgers is a more valuable commodity than Ryan was. Matt Stafford and Russell Wilson have all netted major packages with first round picks included. I think the deal that could serve as a framework is the Carson Wentz from Eagles to Colts trade. The Eagles received a first-round pick for Wentz because he played 75% of the snaps in 2021.
A lot of people considering other players being thrown into the deal. Adding David Bakhtiari and/or Darnell Savage complicates matters. Why would the Packers trade an all-pro left tackle? Remember how important Chad Clifton was in those early Rodgers years? That’s exactly what Bakhtiari can be to Jordan Love.
A lot of insiders are stating this year’s draft is not as strong as year’s past. If the Jets feel that way, then they may be even more aggressive about parting with a first.
I would ask for two firsts if I were the Packers. They have nothing to lose by asking. The Jets will rightfully bulk at that due to Rodgers’ age. I would then try to settle on the 2023 1st and a conditional pick in 2024. I would set the conditions as:
- 1st round pick – Rodgers plays in the Super Bowl
- 2nd round pick – Rodgers play 75% of the snaps
- 3rd round pick – Rodgers plays between 0% and 75% of the snaps
- No pick – Rodgers does not play for the Jets in 2024
Jets net Rodgers and a 2023 pick back in return. I suspect a 3rd or 4th.