wpr
  • wpr
  • Preferred Member Topic Starter
4 years ago

Going for it on 4th down isn’t just good strategy. It’s good for your mental health. Green Bay Packers head coach Matt LaFleur is pretty great. I think we’re all in agreement at this point, and even if he still makes the occasional mistake, he seems like he learns from those mistakes. And boy, does he like analytics. I mean, he really likes them.


A look at "which teams follow the New York Times recommendations on 4th downs when they aren't trailing big?"The Packers are a *huge* outlier in terms of being willing to go for ithttps://t.co/wWjRiYp4wr  pic.twitter.com/N26tIOMjE7 — Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) December 4, 2020 



I think that we sometime run into an issue in the analytics community of not communicating well about the consequences of risk and good versus bad decisions. When we advocate going for it on 4th down, it’s usually couched as “having gained X WP (winning percentage), and that number often isn’t that big. I recently wrote about a decision LaFleur made against the Jaguars that was called the worst decision of the week by EdjSports. That decision cost the Packers  about 18 points of Win Percentage, but if you don’t deal with numbers all the time that doesn’t really sound that bad.
We may be better served to use real life examples to demonstrate just how much these things matter, and what better way to do so, given that it’s Eagles Week, than bringing back the infamous “4th and 26” game of the 2003 season . You may not want to think about the 4th and 26 game and would prefer to put it out of your mind, but instead of doing that, I urge you to grab and hold onto that hate. Let it burn in you and think about every time over the past 16 years it’s been mentioned on a broadcast or by some insensitive git on twitter , and it caused you physical pain.
I watched the entire game again the other day because I wanted to revisit everything else that led up to and followed that play, and because I enjoy pain, apparently. That play never should have happened, and it never should have happened because of the punt that followed this play .

Brett Favre was so very close. He got kind of a bad spot, and the Packers were faced with a 4th and 1 decision in Eagle territory. If they go for it and pick up the first down, they almost certainly win the game. (Converting would have forced the Eagles to either use their final timeout or taken the clock to the 2-minute warning.) The Packers offensive line was excellent, as per usual, and featured Mark Tauscher and Chad Clifton at tackle, Marco Rivera and Mike Wahle at guard, and Mike Flanagan at center, with Bubba Franks at tighteEnd. Packer running backs were only stuffed for no gain or a loss 3 times in this game, though one of those was a 4th-and-1 carry at the Eagles 1-yard line near the end of the first half.
According to the Pro Football Reference Win Probability calclator , if the Packers go for it and make it, they have a 96% chance to win the game. If they fail, they still have a 73.4% chance to win the game. Punting from the 41 (which became the 45 with an intentional delay of game penalty) is very likely to gain you only 20 yards, and that is what happened here when Josh Bidwell couldn’t keep his punt out of of the end zone. The 20 yards of additional field position moved the Packers’ WP from 73.4% all the way to 80.76%.
We often see punting as the “safe” choice, but in this case it was almost certainly the risky one, and definitely the stupid one. On the very next play from scrimmage Duce Staley scampered 22 yards, getting back all of the yardage lost from the punt in a matter of seconds.
Mike Sherman was a bad coach who made bad decisions. I understand that we all know this and we get that it matters on a high level, but this particular decision mattered a lot. It’s very possible that it cost the Packers a Super Bowl  appearance, as the Eagles would go on to lose to a lackluster Carolina team in the NFC Championship  Game. More importantly, it caused a ton of people immense pain for decades.



The modern Packers have learned their lesson. On 4th and short they go for it more than than any other team. Be glad they do, so we don’t have to go through this again. Smart coaching matters.




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Continue Reading @ [url=https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/by-the-numbers/2020/12/5/22155885/packers-going-for-it-more-than-numbers-tauscher-sherman-lafleur-pain-duce-deuce-ahman-green-fredex]PaulNoonan 

PaulNoonan wrote:




I have liked the idea of going for it on 4th more often. Have to trust the offense will get it. Have to trust the defense if they don't.
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wpr
  • wpr
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4 years ago
The twitter chart that didn't post.




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Zero2Cool (6h) : February 5, 2002 (age 23) ok no. packers.com is wrong
Zero2Cool (6h) : Micah Robinson is only 19??
Zero2Cool (8h) : 6 first rounders on Packers defense now
Zero2Cool (20h) : LB Isaiah Simmons. Signed. Called it!!! Oh yeah!
Martha Careful (20h) : ty bboystyle...fat fingers
bboystyle (20h) : Tom*
Martha Careful (28-Apr) : RIP Packer Safety Tim Brown
beast (27-Apr) : Yeah, but also some of the wording suggestions Jax only pranked called the QB, not the others... and if he had an open spreadsheet & 3 calls
beast (27-Apr) : Thank goodness he's not leaving the Turtle in the Red Tide
Mucky Tundra (27-Apr) : Cowboys 1st round pick Tyler Booker will indeed be bringing his pet turtle to Dallas with him
Mucky Tundra (27-Apr) : that contained all prospects info and contact
Mucky Tundra (27-Apr) : beast, according the Falcons statement Jax came across it on an ipad. If I had to guess, probably an open spread sheet or something
Zero2Cool (27-Apr) : Simmons put up an emoji with cheese.
beast (27-Apr) : Not sure anyone is interested in Isaiah Simmons... Collin Oliver might of taken his potential slot
beast (27-Apr) : I'm going with Jax Ulbrich is not telling the whole truth... he accidentally came across it? Why would a defensive coordinator have a QB #?
Zero2Cool (27-Apr) : He's not that great, but final piece of the script.\
Zero2Cool (27-Apr) : If we add Isaiah Simmons, book your Super Bowl tickets
Mucky Tundra (27-Apr) : Colts 1st round TE Tyler Warren also got prank called, was that Jax Ulbrich as well?
Zero2Cool (27-Apr) : Jax Ulbrich, Jeff Ulbrich’s son, released an apology for his role in the Shedeur Sanders prank call.
Martha Careful (27-Apr) : apparently he did not participate in practice or play on the east west shrine game nor the NFL combine. The kid was a mediocre spoiled brat
Mucky Tundra (27-Apr) : Yeah that one that was a super wounded duck that Sanders supporters are highlighting to prove a point
Zero2Cool (27-Apr) : Shough is the guy who missed guys at combine isn't he?
beast (27-Apr) : It's not official until I'm dead! I have a chance still! (Not really)
Mucky Tundra (27-Apr) : I could feel my body decomposing in real time when I read that
Mucky Tundra (27-Apr) : @MIKEYSAINRISTIL Tyler Shough will officially be the last person drafted to the NFL born in the 1900’s
Mucky Tundra (26-Apr) : saw the tweet, he meant the city
Mucky Tundra (26-Apr) : Was that for the team or the city?
Zero2Cool (26-Apr) : Adam Schefter @AdamSchefter · 3m Draft grade is in: Green Bay gets an A. The people, the city, the venue were all superb. NFL Draft’s next
Zero2Cool (26-Apr) : Matt LaFleur says Jaire Alexander is participating in #Packers offseason program, which has been conducted virtually during this first week
Zero2Cool (26-Apr) : ✅ ...
buckeyepackfan (26-Apr) : Check
Zero2Cool (26-Apr) : Matthew Golden cahanged 81 to 22??
TheKanataThrilla (26-Apr) : Sam Howell to Vikings...guess no Aaron
Martha Careful (26-Apr) : 1 round 7 min, with one extra minute if there is a trade. 2nd round 4 minutes, 3rd -3, 2 thereafter IMO
Martha Careful (26-Apr) : Agree
dfosterf (26-Apr) : Great idea imo
dfosterf (26-Apr) : 1st round to 7 minutes with one extension
dfosterf (26-Apr) : NFL comissioner wants to shorten the 2st
Mucky Tundra (26-Apr) : @jalenreagors They’re discussing if Sheduer can go back to college on NFL Network LMFAOOOOO
beast (26-Apr) : Great point Martha
beast (26-Apr) : Buddy Ryan used to say if a candy bar goes missing, there are two to blame, Rex and Rob 🤪 jk 😁
Martha Careful (26-Apr) : Bum Phillips used to say there are two ways to get better. Get better players or get players to play better. We have a new DL coach
Zero2Cool (26-Apr) : Yes. Look at the losses last year. They can win.
beast (26-Apr) : Can Packers win with their current DL?
bboystyle (26-Apr) : waiting for a pass rusher.
dfosterf (25-Apr) : 5 minutes between picks in the 3rd
dfosterf (25-Apr) : 3rd. Hate this phone
dfosterf (25-Apr) : 4rd
dfosterf (25-Apr) : 5 minutes in the 4
dfosterf (25-Apr) : 7 minutes between picks in the 2nd round
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