That’s exactly my point. 0% chance of us drafting Tua in the 3rd round at our pick.
Originally Posted by: go.pack.go.
Yeah. I mean let's be honest here. If the 1st rated QB is sitting there in the late first, you take him. If the 3rd rated QB is sitting there in the late 3rd you take him. But we can say the same thing for WR, DE, DT, TE, S, CB, ILB, OT, G, pretty much any position other than punter or kicker, this sort of logic is pretty sound. Now, is it realistic that the top rated QB will make to the end of the 1st round? Or the 3rd to the end of the 3rd round? Recent history tells us: hell no, some qb needy team will trade up to the first half of the first round to grab these guys.
Now, I don't know enough about the college players to say who is the #1/2/3 QB in the draft, so I'll go with
Walter Football's ranking which has Tua at #3.. Let's look at what position the 3rd QB was selected over the last decade:
2019: 15
2018: 7
2017: 12
2016: 26
2015: 75
2014: 32
2013: 73
2012: 8
2011: 10
2010: 48
That's an average position of #31 for the 3rd QB taken, in other words, they don't generally make it out of the first round. So, if Tua is sitting there at the end of the 3rd, absolutely take him. But he likely won't be, unless the argument is that he's maybe the 5th or 6th best QB in the draft - or if his injury problems are a big concern or something like that (in which case even in the 3rd it may not be a slam dunk).
With the way rookie contracts are structured now, I think the days of grabbing the #2 or #3 QB in the draft (rated going in, not with hindsight) in the back end of the 1st round are over, let alone in the late 2nd/3rd. There's usually plenty of teams willing to drop a 1st (or more, see: Bears) on a guy they think is going to be pretty good. There's enough teams that don't want to make an Aaron Rodgers / Russell Wilson type mistake, one of them will in all likelihood grab Tua well before the third.