wpr
  • wpr
  • Preferred Member Topic Starter
5 years ago

Not everyone understood why the Panthers attempted a two-point conversion when they scored a touchdown to cut the Packers' lead to 24-16 on Sunday. But Panthers coach Ron Rivera understood why it was the right call. Rivera said after the game that he has studied the analytics and knows that a two-point conversion attempt when [more]

Continue Reading @ Michael David Smith 

Michael David Smith wrote:



I loved the call because it was the Panthers doing it. I didn't think it would work and would put them in a deeper hole for the rest of the game.
UserPostedImage
dyeah_gb
5 years ago
Unsurprising that a coach doesn't understand the context of a statistical model and the assumptions that go into it. The psychological impact of being down by basically 2 scores is huge for us fans and probably the players as well.

This quote comes to mind
"All models are wrong, but some are useful" Statistician George Box

Maybe the global warming zealots can learn something from this?
The first principle is that you must not fool yourself, and you are the easiest person to fool - R. Feynman
beast
5 years ago

I thought it was stupid... because if you get the two points, then all you need is two FGS (with two defensive stops) to tie... which with the time left, was less likely, than punching it once with a second TD... and if you then wanted to go for two and the lead, you could.


I get that the analytics say, going for two, on average, leads to more points... but in that participial circumstances, at that time of the game, it just didn't make sense... because the best they could then do is tie... and they'd have to get the extra two points for that.

In those circumstances, the mental toll of missing was too much, to take that chance. Unless maybe you thought there was enough time, to do it three times or something.
UserPostedImage
Zero2Cool
5 years ago

I thought it was stupid... because if you get the two points, then all you need is two FGS (with two defensive stops) to tie... which with the time left, was less likely, than punching it once with a second TD... and if you then wanted to go for two and the lead, you could.


I get that the analytics say, going for two, on average, leads to more points... but in that participial circumstances, at that time of the game, it just didn't make sense... because the best they could then do is tie... and they'd have to get the extra two points for that.

In those circumstances, the mental toll of missing was too much, to take that chance. Unless maybe you thought there was enough time, to do it three times or something.

Originally Posted by: beast 



I didn't get it at the time until I read an article that laid it out. Of the four outcomes, only one was trailing and the other were winning or tying. In hindsight, it was a good move by me.

Us going for it on 4th down at end of half ... I would have liked us to take the 3 points. We just aren't that good within two yards. I know, I know, but I said Mike McCarthy should have gone for the jugular! I feel the 3 points plus opening the half with the ball would have sufficed.
UserPostedImage
Cheesey
5 years ago
I’d say it was “ANALytic”!😂
I saw it as stupid at the time. Which means n the end I’m glad they tried it.
If there had been only a few minutes left and it was their only chance at a tie or win, THEN I’d say it was the right call.
UserPostedImage
beast
5 years ago
If it was purely analytics, then why not do it after every single touchdown? That's where the pure analytics suggest it's best... not just the last two times.

I just think if you're just gonna save it for the end, then you should save it for the last time. That way your team is playing from further behind mentally if you miss... and gives the other team less time to react.
UserPostedImage
Zero2Cool
5 years ago

If it was purely analytics, then why not do it after every single touchdown? That's where the pure analytics suggest it's best... not just the last two times.

I just think if you're just gonna save it for the end, then you should save it for the last time. That way your team is playing from further behind mentally if you miss... and gives the other team less time to react.

Originally Posted by: beast 



Because they were hoping they'd be relying on the extra point to be leading and if missed, a tie.

Why not go for it every time? I think we'll see that grow more and more. Especially at the rate kickers are missing extra points. Analytics say you convert about 48% of 2-point attempts.
UserPostedImage
beast
5 years ago

Because they were hoping they'd be relying on the extra point to be leading and if missed, a tie.

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 


Yes I agree that hoping was a big part of it, but that "hoping" is NOT "purely analytics" as Rivera said... and in my opinion, that hoping slanted the judgement, and got him to ignore (to a certain degree) the analytics and reactions of a potential miss... As he doesn't seem to factor in the analytical possibility of missing it both times.


UserPostedImage
dyeah_gb
5 years ago

Because they were hoping they'd be relying on the extra point to be leading and if missed, a tie.

Why not go for it every time? I think we'll see that grow more and more. Especially at the rate kickers are missing extra points. Analytics say you convert about 48% of 2-point attempts.

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 



I like the idea of going for two if you know you are winning the battle in the trenches. If you are team that easily converts on third and short with a beastly O-line, it makes more sense. If you are more of a scheming team, looking for mismatches, then it probably is better to just take the kick.

Interesting thinking back to the Eagles and Cowboys game where Rodgers threw a very quick pass right after the snap before even seeing what was going on. The one against the Eagles led to the int. The one against the cowboys was odd as it bounced off someones helmet. Would be great to see if MLF cooks up something new and reliable in the red zone based on a quick pass, like exploiting the AI in Madden. Maybe they gave up on it after those two failures.
The first principle is that you must not fool yourself, and you are the easiest person to fool - R. Feynman
KRK
  • KRK
  • Veteran Member
5 years ago
ZTC said:

Us going for it on 4th down at end of half ... I would have liked us to take the 3 points. We just aren't that good within two yards. I know, I know, but I said Mike McCarthy should have gone for the jugular! I feel the 3 points plus opening the half with the ball would have sufficed.

I think it was dumb not to have kicked the FG.
In Luce tua Videmus Lucem KRK
Fan Shout
dfosterf (21h) : Looking for guidance. Not feeling the thumb.
Mucky Tundra (10-Apr) : If they knew about it or not
Mucky Tundra (10-Apr) : I don't recall that he did which is why I asked.
Zero2Cool (10-Apr) : Guessing they probably knew. Did he have cast or something on?
Mucky Tundra (10-Apr) : Did they know that at the time or was that something the realized afterwards?
Zero2Cool (9-Apr) : Van Ness played most of season with broken thumb
wpr (9-Apr) : yay
Zero2Cool (9-Apr) : Mark Murphy says Steelers likely to protect Packers game. Meaning, no Ireland
Zero2Cool (8-Apr) : Struggling to figure out what text editor options are needed and which are 'nice to have'
Mucky Tundra (8-Apr) : *CHOMP CHOMP CHOMP*
Zero2Cool (2-Apr) : WR who said he'd break Xavier Worthy 40 time...and ran slower than you
Mucky Tundra (2-Apr) : Who?
Zero2Cool (2-Apr) : Texas’ WR Isaiah Bond is scheduled to visit the Bills, Browns, Chiefs, Falcons, Packers and Titans starting next week.
Zero2Cool (2-Apr) : Spotting ball isn't changing, only measuring distance is, Which wasn't the issue.
Zero2Cool (2-Apr) : The spotting of the ball IS the issue. Not the chain gang.
Mucky Tundra (2-Apr) : Will there be a tracker on the ball or something?
Zero2Cool (1-Apr) : uh oh
Martha Careful (1-Apr) : Too bad camera's can't spot the ball as well.
Mucky Tundra (1-Apr) : So will the chain gang be gone completely or will they still be around as a backup or whatever?
Zero2Cool (1-Apr) : The method for measuring first downs in the NFL will switch from chain gangs to camera-based technology in 2025, the league announced.
Martha Careful (1-Apr) : A big step in the right direction. Just put in the college system is very very good.
Zero2Cool (1-Apr) : NFL has passed a rule that allows both teams to possess the ball in OT during the regular season
Zero2Cool (1-Apr) : Touchbacks on kickoffs will now bring the ball to the 35-yard line.
beast (31-Mar) : It might of gotten more popular recently, but braiding hair (even men) in certain cultures goes back for centuries.
Martha Careful (30-Mar) : Is men braiding their hair a new style thing? Watching the NCAA men's tournament many players have done
Zero2Cool (29-Mar) : Ha. Well, it'd be nice for folks to reset their own password. Via validated email 😏
beast (29-Mar) : Monopoly was supposed to be an educational game, that show how evil capitalism was and how we should avoid it
beast (29-Mar) : Lol, I was thinking username would be better, as then I wouldn't have to keep an email up to date lol 😂
beast (29-Mar) : Zero2Cool (25-Mar) : I was thinking email because I think it'll make folks keep it up todate lol
wpr (29-Mar) : sure is
Zero2Cool (29-Mar) : Monopoly is a rip off of The Landlord's Game
wpr (27-Mar) : 28 days until the draft
earthquake (27-Mar) : Which seemed strange to my 9 year old self, that you could be a fan for a team other than the one you play for
earthquake (27-Mar) : Nothing eventful happened, other than it being clear that he was a bengals fan
earthquake (27-Mar) : And we went and hung out with him one afternoon, I must have been 9 or so
earthquake (27-Mar) : That’s wild, when I was a kid my friend lived in the same apartment complex in De Pere
Mucky Tundra (27-Mar) : Only career highspot was a 200 yard rushing game while playing for the Cardinals
Mucky Tundra (27-Mar) : He is a former Packer. Drafted out of Northern Illinois. Didn't do much in GB.
dfosterf (26-Mar) : Despicable
Zero2Cool (26-Mar) : Former NFL. I think Packers too
Zero2Cool (26-Mar) : NFL RB Leshon Johnson has been charged in a massive dog fighting operation, with the FBI seizing over 190 Pit Bulls
Mucky Tundra (26-Mar) : Some real irony of a QB as short as Wilson playing for the Giants
Mucky Tundra (26-Mar) : Giants country, let's be the tall beings of lore!
Mucky Tundra (26-Mar) : Russell Wilson signs with the Giants.
Zero2Cool (25-Mar) : I was thinking email because I think it'll make folks keep it up todate lol
wpr (25-Mar) : I don't think there is a significant difference. I use a user name for many. Others email.
Martha Careful (25-Mar) : email
Zero2Cool (25-Mar) : would it be better to use EMAIL or USERNAME to log into a site?
wpr (25-Mar) : Thanks Zero
Zero2Cool (24-Mar) : New forum has the ability to Thank a post now.
Please sign in to use Fan Shout
2024 Packers Schedule
Friday, Sep 6 @ 7:15 PM
Eagles
Sunday, Sep 15 @ 12:00 PM
COLTS
Sunday, Sep 22 @ 12:00 PM
Titans
Sunday, Sep 29 @ 12:00 PM
VIKINGS
Sunday, Oct 6 @ 3:25 PM
Rams
Sunday, Oct 13 @ 12:00 PM
CARDINALS
Sunday, Oct 20 @ 12:00 PM
TEXANS
Sunday, Oct 27 @ 12:00 PM
Jaguars
Sunday, Nov 3 @ 3:25 PM
LIONS
Sunday, Nov 17 @ 12:00 PM
Bears
Sunday, Nov 24 @ 3:25 PM
49ERS
Thursday, Nov 28 @ 7:20 PM
DOLPHINS
Thursday, Dec 5 @ 7:15 PM
Lions
Sunday, Dec 15 @ 7:20 PM
Seahawks
Monday, Dec 23 @ 7:15 PM
SAINTS
Sunday, Dec 29 @ 3:25 PM
Vikings
Sunday, Jan 5 @ 12:00 PM
BEARS
Sunday, Jan 12 @ 3:30 PM
Eagles
Recent Topics
13h / Feedback, Suggestions and Issues / Rockmolder

9-Apr / Feedback, Suggestions and Issues / Zero2Cool

8-Apr / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

2-Apr / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

2-Apr / Green Bay Packers Talk / bboystyle

1-Apr / Green Bay Packers Talk / Mucky Tundra

1-Apr / Green Bay Packers Talk / wpr

31-Mar / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

30-Mar / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

29-Mar / Random Babble / wpr

28-Mar / Random Babble / Martha Careful

26-Mar / Random Babble / Mucky Tundra

25-Mar / Random Babble / Martha Careful

24-Mar / Random Babble / packerfanoutwest

24-Mar / Random Babble / Zero2Cool

Headlines
Copyright © 2006 - 2025 PackersHome.com™. All Rights Reserved.