wpr
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5 years ago

Not everyone understood why the Panthers attempted a two-point conversion when they scored a touchdown to cut the Packers' lead to 24-16 on Sunday. But Panthers coach Ron Rivera understood why it was the right call. Rivera said after the game that he has studied the analytics and knows that a two-point conversion attempt when [more]

Continue Reading @ Michael David Smith 

Michael David Smith wrote:



I loved the call because it was the Panthers doing it. I didn't think it would work and would put them in a deeper hole for the rest of the game.
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dyeah_gb
5 years ago
Unsurprising that a coach doesn't understand the context of a statistical model and the assumptions that go into it. The psychological impact of being down by basically 2 scores is huge for us fans and probably the players as well.

This quote comes to mind
"All models are wrong, but some are useful" Statistician George Box

Maybe the global warming zealots can learn something from this?
The first principle is that you must not fool yourself, and you are the easiest person to fool - R. Feynman
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beast
5 years ago

I thought it was stupid... because if you get the two points, then all you need is two FGS (with two defensive stops) to tie... which with the time left, was less likely, than punching it once with a second TD... and if you then wanted to go for two and the lead, you could.


I get that the analytics say, going for two, on average, leads to more points... but in that participial circumstances, at that time of the game, it just didn't make sense... because the best they could then do is tie... and they'd have to get the extra two points for that.

In those circumstances, the mental toll of missing was too much, to take that chance. Unless maybe you thought there was enough time, to do it three times or something.
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Zero2Cool
5 years ago

I thought it was stupid... because if you get the two points, then all you need is two FGS (with two defensive stops) to tie... which with the time left, was less likely, than punching it once with a second TD... and if you then wanted to go for two and the lead, you could.


I get that the analytics say, going for two, on average, leads to more points... but in that participial circumstances, at that time of the game, it just didn't make sense... because the best they could then do is tie... and they'd have to get the extra two points for that.

In those circumstances, the mental toll of missing was too much, to take that chance. Unless maybe you thought there was enough time, to do it three times or something.

Originally Posted by: beast 



I didn't get it at the time until I read an article that laid it out. Of the four outcomes, only one was trailing and the other were winning or tying. In hindsight, it was a good move by me.

Us going for it on 4th down at end of half ... I would have liked us to take the 3 points. We just aren't that good within two yards. I know, I know, but I said Mike McCarthy should have gone for the jugular! I feel the 3 points plus opening the half with the ball would have sufficed.
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Cheesey
5 years ago
I’d say it was “ANALytic”!😂
I saw it as stupid at the time. Which means n the end I’m glad they tried it.
If there had been only a few minutes left and it was their only chance at a tie or win, THEN I’d say it was the right call.
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beast
5 years ago
If it was purely analytics, then why not do it after every single touchdown? That's where the pure analytics suggest it's best... not just the last two times.

I just think if you're just gonna save it for the end, then you should save it for the last time. That way your team is playing from further behind mentally if you miss... and gives the other team less time to react.
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Zero2Cool
5 years ago

If it was purely analytics, then why not do it after every single touchdown? That's where the pure analytics suggest it's best... not just the last two times.

I just think if you're just gonna save it for the end, then you should save it for the last time. That way your team is playing from further behind mentally if you miss... and gives the other team less time to react.

Originally Posted by: beast 



Because they were hoping they'd be relying on the extra point to be leading and if missed, a tie.

Why not go for it every time? I think we'll see that grow more and more. Especially at the rate kickers are missing extra points. Analytics say you convert about 48% of 2-point attempts.
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beast
5 years ago

Because they were hoping they'd be relying on the extra point to be leading and if missed, a tie.

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 


Yes I agree that hoping was a big part of it, but that "hoping" is NOT "purely analytics" as Rivera said... and in my opinion, that hoping slanted the judgement, and got him to ignore (to a certain degree) the analytics and reactions of a potential miss... As he doesn't seem to factor in the analytical possibility of missing it both times.

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dyeah_gb
5 years ago

Because they were hoping they'd be relying on the extra point to be leading and if missed, a tie.

Why not go for it every time? I think we'll see that grow more and more. Especially at the rate kickers are missing extra points. Analytics say you convert about 48% of 2-point attempts.

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 



I like the idea of going for two if you know you are winning the battle in the trenches. If you are team that easily converts on third and short with a beastly O-line, it makes more sense. If you are more of a scheming team, looking for mismatches, then it probably is better to just take the kick.

Interesting thinking back to the Eagles and Cowboys game where Rodgers threw a very quick pass right after the snap before even seeing what was going on. The one against the Eagles led to the int. The one against the cowboys was odd as it bounced off someones helmet. Would be great to see if MLF cooks up something new and reliable in the red zone based on a quick pass, like exploiting the AI in Madden. Maybe they gave up on it after those two failures.
The first principle is that you must not fool yourself, and you are the easiest person to fool - R. Feynman
KRK
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5 years ago
ZTC said:

Us going for it on 4th down at end of half ... I would have liked us to take the 3 points. We just aren't that good within two yards. I know, I know, but I said Mike McCarthy should have gone for the jugular! I feel the 3 points plus opening the half with the ball would have sufficed.

I think it was dumb not to have kicked the FG.
In Luce tua Videmus Lucem KRK
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