beast
7 years ago

Thank you Coach Beast. You will of course keep us, the uninformed up to speed on all Packer/League trends/changes. KC has an opening for a GM by the way.

Originally Posted by: Smokey 


You are so welcome! It's always nice to help the uninformed, get up to speed on this great game that we all love! And it's so great that you appreciate the knowledge you have learned from others. [biggrin]

[cheers]

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beast
7 years ago
NFL Networks' NFL Analytics expert Cynthia Frelund just said (when talking about the NFL in general that) she thinks Mike Daniels is underrated, because he was about on the field for about (I believe she said) 16% of 3rd downs, so he didn't get as many chances at high profile stats like sacks.


If correct, that's interesting they they rotated Daniels off the field on 3rd downs so often... though I remember seeing Peppers rushing up the middle on the DL a lot more on 3rd downs than in past years... but that has to be a huge reason they went after DT Montravius Adams, because he should be very good in that role as a 3rd down penetrator.

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Smokey
  • Smokey
  • Veteran Member Topic Starter
7 years ago
With Guion in trouble , again , and hopefully on his way from rejoining the Packer's in 2017 and in spite of the 4-2 Defensive theory , who will join Mike Daniels in the Packer's 4-3 Defensive line ? I've reexamined the positions and can't now settle on the two players that will start beside Mike Daniels .

Who do you see on the DL with Mike Daniels in 2017 ? [cool]

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nerdmann
7 years ago

With Guion in trouble , again , and hopefully on his way from rejoining the Packer's in 2017 and in spite of the 4-2 Defensive theory , who will join Mike Daniels in the Packer's 4-3 Defensive line ? I've reexamined the positions and can't now settle on the two players that will start beside Mike Daniels .

Who do you see on the DL with Mike Daniels in 2017 ? [cool]

Originally Posted by: Smokey 



Kenny Clark and Montravius Adams. Although I like Francois too. I consider this an area of depth.
“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don't do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”
Smokey
  • Smokey
  • Veteran Member Topic Starter
7 years ago
One respected source thinks the Starting DL for the 2017 Packers will be :

DT - Rickey Jean-Francois
NT - Kenny Clark
DT - Mike Daniels


With Guion likely to be hitting the road , the back-up players will be determined at TC .

This starting line-up looks most likely to me . [biggrin]

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beast
7 years ago

in spite of the 4-2 Defensive theory

Originally Posted by: Smokey 



Smokey, what are you looking for? You said you are looking for the "starting line-up"... but are you looking for the 3-4 depth chart? ... or are you looking for who actually starts?

Who actually starts will be a 4-2-5... just like it was last year. There is no theory here, it's fact.

Number of DL starts last year
16 Daniels
15 Guion
2 Clark

Sum of 33, divided by 16 games and that's an
average of 2.0625 DL starts per game.

The only game (including the playoffs) that the Packers started with 3 DL was week 6 game against the Cowboys


Number of DB starts last year
16 Dix
15 Burnett
15 Gunter
11 Hyde
10 Rollins
9 Randall
3 Goodson
1 Shields
1 Brice

Sum of 81, divided by 16 games and that's an
average of 5.0625 DB starts per game.

With the number being above 5, it means that the Packers started more games with 6 DBs on the field than 4 DBs on the field

So CLEARLY the Packers have started with 5 DBs on the field

Nickel/Dime Defense  is the most used defense in the NFL, as teams are running more and more of it each year. Base defense are no longer the most used defense.

In fact, the Packers have now gone an entire game without lining up in the 3-4 defense.

They maintained that astounding streak against the Giants’ offense, despite never lining up in their base 3-4 defense on a single snap throughout the entire game.

acmepackingcompany  wrote:


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Who actually starts will be a 4-2-5... just like it was last year. There is no theory here, it's fact.

Originally Posted by: beast 



As explained in greater detail in the message above, the Packers only started two DT last year in all of their games expect the regular season game against the Cowboys.

One respected source thinks the Starting DL for the 2017 Packers will be :

DT - Rickey Jean-Francois
NT - Kenny Clark
DT - Mike Daniels

Originally Posted by: Smokey 



For the 3-4 depth chart, I think that's correct. Like I've been saying, Clark is in at NT.

And it will be Jean-Francois or Lowry joining Daniels on the outside in the 3-4 depth chart. But the Packers like all 32 teams play over 50% of the time with 5 or more DBs on the field... as it has been increasing each year.

Here's the thing, though: no matter which set your favorite team plays out of, you're picturing the wrong thing. That's because the nickel defense has taken over the NFL. Here, via Peter King at The MMQB, is the evidence.

The 2015 season was the seventh straight year for an increase in the number of defensive snaps in the NFL with five defensive back or more on the field. Per Pro Football Focus here is the percentage of plays in NFL games with five DBs or more on the field in every season since 2008:

2008: 43.4%
2009: 45.1%
2010: 48.8%
2011: 52.5%
2012: 54.4%
2013: 58.3%
2014: 60.3%
2015: 63.4%

cbssports  wrote:


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Teams that line up in the same defense all the time are subject to getting burned for it . However teams that disguise their Defenses are not as predictable . Lining up in the 4-2 Defense is an invitation to opposing teams to RUN the ball . Yes Offenses do throw the ball more than in the past , but Coaches still look at getting 1st Downs and moving the sticks another 10 yards down the field . Therefor gaining the 3 or 4 yds. needed for a 1st Down will still be a RB priority play. Also , Goal Line stands do still take place , and the 4-2 Defense is not the best Beefy D-Line that is sometimes called for.

Yes , the 4-2 is one of the Defenses that GB will use , but it will not be the only one utilized . For this reason it is proper to name three (3) D-Line Starters .

IMO , the most closely watched positions in GB's 2017 Training Camp will be the CB's , and should be as that part of GB's 2016 Defense was so poor .

[twocents]


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beast
7 years ago

Yes , the 4-2 is one of the Defenses that GB will use , but it will not be the only one utilized . For this reason it is proper to name three (3) D-Line Starters .

Originally Posted by: Smokey 



Then wouldn't it be proper to both name base DL starter and a Nickel DB starter as well?

DE: Lowry (or Jean Francois)
CB: Randall (or Burnett)

It seems like the reason the teams are still showing the base set-ups as starters, is because the NFL to fans is very slow and very reactive. Just like they had FB in the All-Pro voting for years or decades after FB because a less important positions and just recently got to changing it.

Also the NFL loves to put labels on things and over simplify them, to the point that it becomes confusing and easy to get screwed up... such as the position "DE". A 4-3 DE (edge rusher) and a 3-4 DE (interior linemen) are two very different things. But they're calling both DEs.

Another one, is PUP... there is the preseason/offseason PUP, which mainly just means you haven't yet passed a physical yet... and the inseason PUP, which means you have to miss the first 6 games of the season, and then have a window when you move be moved off the PUP.
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Zero2Cool (14-Feb) : Packers are hiring Luke Getsy as senior offensive assistant.
Martha Careful (12-Feb) : I would love to have them both, esp. Crosby, but either might be too expensive.
Zero2Cool (12-Feb) : Keisean Nixon is trying to get Maxx Crosby and Davante Adams lol
Mucky Tundra (11-Feb) : Yeah where did it go?
packerfanoutwest (11-Feb) : or did you resctrict access to that topic?
packerfanoutwest (11-Feb) : why did you remove the Playoff topic?
Zero2Cool (10-Feb) : Tua’s old DC won a Super Bowl Year 1 with Tua’s former backup
Mucky Tundra (10-Feb) : *winning MVP
Mucky Tundra (10-Feb) : Funny observation I've heard: Carson Wentz was on the sideline for both Eagles Super Bowl wins w/guys supposed to be his back up winning
Zero2Cool (10-Feb) : NFL thought it would get more attention week preceding Super Bowl.
Zero2Cool (10-Feb) : Yes, the Pro Bowl. It was played Sunday before Super Bowl from 2010-2022
packerfanoutwest (10-Feb) : pro bowl
Zero2Cool (10-Feb) : From 2010 to 2022, it was played on the Sunday before the Super Bowl
Zero2Cool (10-Feb) : They moved it to the BYE week before Super Bowl several years ago.
packerfanoutwest (10-Feb) : it was always after the SB.....
beast (10-Feb) : Though I stop following pro bowl years ago
beast (10-Feb) : I thought the pro game was before the Super Bowl?
packerfanoutwest (10-Feb) : ok now for the Pro Bowl Game in Hawaii
TheKanataThrilla (10-Feb) : If I was Philly I would try to end it instead of punting it
Mucky Tundra (10-Feb) : VICTORY! We have (moral) victory!
TheKanataThrilla (10-Feb) : Hey they mentioned that we 3-peted
Mucky Tundra (10-Feb) : seems to me the 49ers should have traded Aiyuk when they had the chance
Mucky Tundra (10-Feb) : if the Eagles get it down to the 1, do they Tush Push or give it to Barkley?
TheKanataThrilla (10-Feb) : 49ers have a money problem if they want to sign their QB
Mucky Tundra (10-Feb) : Wait for real? Didn't he just get an extension two years ago?
Zero2Cool (10-Feb) : 49ers gonna trade Deebo. Interesting
TheKanataThrilla (10-Feb) : Replays always never seem to show the holdings
TheKanataThrilla (10-Feb) : Great throw by Hurts
Mucky Tundra (10-Feb) : Where Carter falls prey to bad off the field influences (to be clear, not saying he'd clip someone though)
Mucky Tundra (10-Feb) : Had Carter not gone to Philly were they already had a lot of old college friends, he ends up in a similar spot to Aaron Hernandez
Mucky Tundra (10-Feb) : I think some of his coaches told scouts to stay away
Mucky Tundra (10-Feb) : the street racing incident+conditioning and motivation problems
beast (10-Feb) : Then Carter was street racing, where the other car crashed and people died... and other teams were scared to pick Carter for some reason
beast (10-Feb) : I think the Saints traded up, giving their next year 1st to the Eagles, and then they sucked and Eagles got the 10th overall pick
packerfanoutwest (10-Feb) : wtf Barkley?
TheKanataThrilla (10-Feb) : Getting Carter and Nolan Smith in the first round in 2023 was pretty darn good
Mucky Tundra (10-Feb) : for some reason i'm thinking of a draft where the Eagles where in the mid 20s and a top player fell all the way to them
TheKanataThrilla (10-Feb) : I think so. I would need to look it up. Think it may have been Carolina's pick.
Mucky Tundra (10-Feb) : i'm not sure who i'm thinking of now
Mucky Tundra (10-Feb) : oh fuck me i messed that up
Zero2Cool (10-Feb) : Jordan Davis was 13th overall
Zero2Cool (10-Feb) : Carter was 9th overall
Zero2Cool (10-Feb) : Eagles had 15th and 10th selections, moved to 13 and 9 to get Davis and Carter back to back
Zero2Cool (10-Feb) : Eagles traded up for Carter, didn't they?
Mucky Tundra (10-Feb) : Obviously he was a huge risk but getting a top 5 talent on the dline in the mid 20s is fortuitous
Mucky Tundra (10-Feb) : Jalen Carter falling into their lap certainly helps
TheKanataThrilla (10-Feb) : And we could only wish to have this type of D
TheKanataThrilla (10-Feb) : It's not like Philly has had low draft picks, but has managed to get themselves a top notch pass rush. We spend so much draft capital of D
packerfanoutwest (10-Feb) : another crap halftime show
TheKanataThrilla (10-Feb) : I think it is over, but then I think of Atlanta and want Philly to go in with the same intensity in the second half
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