Wade
  • Wade
  • Veteran Member
9 years ago

Well done nerd. I am amazed anyone would put in this much effort.

I wish someone would convince Teddy that you don't take flyers before the 3rd or 4th round. And the 3rd is kind of pushing it.

Originally Posted by: wpr 



You distinguish between a flyer (e.g. Khyri Thornton) and a reach, Wayne? I have a feeling that he may end up having to reach somewhat only because he can't get a trade partner that allows him to trade up/down for the right value. Especially if he has to stay put at #27 in the first.

To me an acceptable and often unavoidable reach is "up to half a round" for the top 50 picks, "up to 20-30 picks" for the top 100. Reaching more than that would fall into the "flyer" category. So, for example, I considered Mike Neal and Nick Perry reaches for where they were drafted, but'd have put Thornton, Jerel Worthy, Davante Adams all as flyers.

And do not be conformed to this world, but be transformed by the renewing of your mind, that you may prove what is that good and acceptable and perfect will of God.
Romans 12:2 (NKJV)
beast
9 years ago

we don't (apparently) WANT guys who fit our scheme. Dom loves those 4-3 guys.

Originally Posted by: nerdmann 



Maybe that's because they see the Packers defensive scheme as a 4-2 nickel defense, because that's what they run about 70% of the time as the NFL seem to be getting more and more pass happy and most (or maybe all) teams are running mostly a form of the 4-2 nickel package more than any other package.

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nerdmann
9 years ago

You distinguish between a flyer (e.g. Khyri Thornton) and a reach, Wayne? I have a feeling that he may end up having to reach somewhat only because he can't get a trade partner that allows him to trade up/down for the right value. Especially if he has to stay put at #27 in the first.

To me an acceptable and often unavoidable reach is "up to half a round" for the top 50 picks, "up to 20-30 picks" for the top 100. Reaching more than that would fall into the "flyer" category. So, for example, I considered Mike Neal and Nick Perry reaches for where they were drafted, but'd have put Thornton, Jerel Worthy, Davante Adams all as flyers.

Originally Posted by: Wade 



If I'm Ted and I'm in a conundrum like that at #27, BAM! Jaylon, baby!
“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don't do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”
wpr
  • wpr
  • Preferred Member
9 years ago

You distinguish between a flyer (e.g. Khyri Thornton) and a reach, Wayne? I have a feeling that he may end up having to reach somewhat only because he can't get a trade partner that allows him to trade up/down for the right value. Especially if he has to stay put at #27 in the first.

To me an acceptable and often unavoidable reach is "up to half a round" for the top 50 picks, "up to 20-30 picks" for the top 100. Reaching more than that would fall into the "flyer" category. So, for example, I considered Mike Neal and Nick Perry reaches for where they were drafted, but'd have put Thornton, Jerel Worthy, Davante Adams all as flyers.

Originally Posted by: Wade 



No a flyer and a reach are the same thing to me and I don't want to waste the first two rounds for sure and really the 3rd round too. Many of the busts GB has had occurred when Teddy tried to force the issue.

I understand outside the first 3-5 players taken, you will never draft a player exactly at the position value they are listed at. I also understand that the value that is attributed by the so called experts will differ, somethings a lot, from the value a specific team assigns to a player. But I can not see why a team, in the first round, would take a player that is rated 15-16 slots lower unless they are chasing a specific position and we know Teddy doesn't do that. He always takes TBPA. *wink wink*
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beast
9 years ago

You distinguish between a flyer (e.g. Khyri Thornton) and a reach, Wayne?

Originally Posted by: Wade 


No a flyer and a reach are the same thing to me

Originally Posted by: wpr 



I think often times flyer and reach are meant as the same thing, but I've also seen a few people use them differently.

The distinguish those people used was that a flyer is more of a term for a risky boom or bust type player with the player having a possibility of living up to or exceed where they were drafted but also could easily become a bust, and so it was more about taking a chance (or flyer) on their upside potential to possibly give you that return value. While reach was a term for a player you felt more certain about what they were going to deliver, and it might be good, but just not as good as one would normally expect with that level of a draft pick.


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wpr
  • wpr
  • Preferred Member
9 years ago

I think often times flyer and reach are meant as the same thing, but I've also seen a few people use them differently.

The distinguish those people used was that a flyer is more of a term for a risky boom or bust type player with the player having a possibility of living up to or exceed where they were drafted but also could easily become a bust, and so it was more about taking a chance (or flyer) on their upside potential to possibly give you that return value. While reach was a term for a player you felt more certain about what they were going to deliver, and it might be good, but just not as good as one would normally expect with that level of a draft pick.

Originally Posted by: beast 



I understand what you are saying but why would anyone "reach" for a player unless they thought they could exceed their anticipated slot? Thus a "flyer" too. At least for me. I don't mind it if people want to distinguish between the two. They have that right.
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beast
9 years ago

I understand what you are saying but why would anyone "reach" for a player unless they thought they could exceed their anticipated slot? Thus a "flyer" too. At least for me. I don't mind it if people want to distinguish between the two. They have that right.

Originally Posted by: wpr 



Normally it's a 3rd party who thinks the pick was a reach, such as some fans thought selecting Randall at 30 overall least year was a reach, while the Packers might disagree.

Personally I think drafting kickers/punters before the 4th round have been some of the biggest reaches in NFL history, but those that made the decisions might disagree.


But some of the reasons teams have reach for a pick

[list]
  • Because the team don't think it's a reach

  • Because the team has a very large need at that position
  • (happens a lot with the QB position)

  • Because the team really wants a certain player and doesn't think they'll make it to their next pick
  • (especially if you don't have a pick in the next round)

  • Because the GM might not know how to evaluate players
  • (often the case when Owners or Money Market GMs are running the show)

  • Can't find a decent trade back, and don't think any player is worth the selection
  • (Seahawks GM John Schneider, said they only rated 16 players in the 2015 draft as worthy of a first round pick and therefore their were going to be 16 reaches in the 2015 first round and that's why they traded their first round pick before the draft).
    [/list]
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    DarkaneRules
    9 years ago
    I'm always excited when we pick because I like being surprised about new players I've never heard of hopefully making a name for themselves in the NFL. Randall was amazing last year for a rookie. I was just in awe. He made mistakes here and there but you wouldn't see him make the same mistake twice.
    Circular Arguments: They are a heck of an annoyance
    Yerko
    9 years ago

    I'm always excited when we pick because I like being surprised about new players I've never heard of hopefully making a name for themselves in the NFL. Randall was amazing last year for a rookie. I was just in awe. He made mistakes here and there but you wouldn't see him make the same mistake twice.

    Originally Posted by: DarkaneRules 



    I remember being both shocked and disturbed by last years draft when Ted went back to back with the cornerback picks AND selected two guys that I either didn't know much about (Randall) or who I thought was more like a 3rd round pick (Rollins).

    Now I sit back and enjoy both these players wearing the Packers uniform and the Rollins pick is much better to me because my brother (a Bears fan) wanted Chicago to take him badly. Anytime Rollins makes a play, I let him know.

    Nerd- thanks for the big board. A lot of good players coming out of this draft. I wouldn't be upset at all if the Packers went with Jaylon at #27. Unless there is a player who magically dropped to 27, why not?

    Exciting to think about him playing for the Packers.
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    steveishere
    9 years ago

    I remember being both shocked and disturbed by last years draft when Ted went back to back with the cornerback picks AND selected two guys that I either didn't know much about (Randall) or who I thought was more like a 3rd round pick (Rollins).

    Now I sit back and enjoy both these players wearing the Packers uniform and the Rollins pick is much better to me because my brother (a Bears fan) wanted Chicago to take him badly. Anytime Rollins makes a play, I let him know.

    Nerd- thanks for the big board. A lot of good players coming out of this draft. I wouldn't be upset at all if the Packers went with Jaylon at #27. Unless there is a player who magically dropped to 27, why not?

    Exciting to think about him playing for the Packers.

    Originally Posted by: Yerko 



    The draft threads from last year for those to specifically are some fun reading lol.
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