Doesn't analysis of yards fail to account for the same thing? If you get a pick 6, or good field position from ST your yards will be skewed too. I don't mean to delve into this too much, I don't have the time or interest to statistically validating the value of Finley.
Bottom line for me is I'm optimistic about the impact an athletic TE in a "prove it contract" will provide the Packers in 2016.
Originally Posted by: musccy
The concept that a good TE can open things up for the offense is a legitimate concept. Saying that Finley, an incomplete TE, did it is just wrong. This is not supported by any statistical data that I’ve seen. Nor is it confirmed by my independent evaluations [for whatever the hell that’s worth], which I believe is corroborated by the data I’ve seen. I predicted GB would let Finley walk and was SHOCKED when they signed him to 2 yr 15M.
In direct response to your point/yards analysis question...NO! Either superficial analysis needs for things like quality of defense, whether the OL was healthy, etc., to average out; but the point analysis has aspects that are 100% skewed. For example, GB's D and STs can directly ADD points [STs and Ds cannot add offensive yards] and when the opposite occurs, points are not subtracted from GB's total; they are only added to the opposing team's total, which is ignored in the point analysis. When the analysis is yards: yes, Janis returning a KOR for TD or Starks fumbling, limits the offensive opportunities; but when the opposite happens, EG, the other team gets a KOR for TD or our D generates a turnover then the offensive opportunities are increased. It hopefully averages, the yards analysis isn't skewed at all, it is an equal opportunity stat for this analysis.
Do the stats presented prove that Finley did nothing for the offense? No, it’s superficial. The sample size isn't big enough and there a plethora of other variables that are not incorporated. And two years couldn’t be analyzed because Finley played in 16 games. But, again if Finley was such a force AND HE'S REPLACED BY A JAG, the sample should reflect, a noticeable difference if he’s gone...It dont!
If one really wants to do this, in most games Finley played between 50-70% of the snaps; show the difference of yards of each play with Finley in and out.
Exhibit B: From 2009-13; Finley had 311 targets; 217-2711-12.5-19. In that time, all other TEs combined had 237-153-1,568-10.25-17. These TEs include JAGS, Lee at end of career, Havner, Bostic, Crabtree, Taylor, Williams and Quarles. Over this period, Aaron Rodgers missed most or all of 11 games; Finley played in only one of those [where Flynn had the best game of any GB QB in history]. Had Aaron Rodgers played in all the games the scrub TE’s numbers would be slightly better, making them pretty damn close, if not better, than Finley’s.
Exhibit C: in 2012; Finley played 16 games; but only 62% of the snaps. Several games through his career when he was perfectly healthy he played less than 60% of the snaps. Jordy, Gronk, play 90%+ when healthy. Coaches play their receiver difference makers more than 60% of the snaps when healthy.
Exhibit 😨 when Aaron Rodgers went down and replaced by bad QB [Wallace, Rookie Tolzien, broken armed Flynn]; when Jordy was replaced by Jones; when decent Bulaga was replaced by bad Barclay; you saw a noticeable drop in production. That is what happens when a relative stud is replaced by a JAG. When Finley was replaced by a JAG TE, actually guys that proved to be less than JAGs, and not so much of a difference.
Stats be damned, you all KNOW the last one. The conclusion: Fast/athletic TEs, who are incomplete, don’t do shit for a team!