uffda udfa
9 years ago

The red zone efficiency [RZE] thing is all about NOTHING! But, Mike McCarthy is on top of this one and to the extent it was deficient it will improve in 2015.

What makes a good/bad RZE team is not the %; but the % of TDs RELATIVE to the league. In 2014, as Z2C pointed out, GB was 11th in the league [63-36, 57%]. Oakland was #1 at 71%, which is an insignificant outlier stat, as they had by far the fewest RZ attempts and probably got a few down by 50 points. GB and NE led the league 2010-2012 at just under 65% and #2 in 2014 was Dallas at 64.91% [33 of 51]. So 65% signifies RZE “stellarness.” If we had the same # of RZ trips as Dallas the difference between 57 and 65% is 4 TDs of which Crosby kicks at least 3 field goals; ergo the difference in GB’s and stellar RZE is 19 points or 1.2 points per game.

Note: excluded from these RZ stats is a Cobb’s 22 yard TD at Chic.; Addams’ 21 yrd TD v. Car.

At Cheesehead TV a nice article by Reuter on August 20, points out*:
The difference between 57 and 64% becomes even more trivial when adjusting for GB taking a knee to end a game in the RZ twice*, boosting their RZE to 59%. Now only 3 TDs or 15 points [If 2 FGs are made] separate GB from being RZ stellar.

And GB had two drives start outside the 20 and stalled inside the 20*, if discounting those drives, our RZE is 61%.

And Reuter points out in 2014 how in the first 7 weeks GB had a 78% RZE and 53% thereafter; which correlated to increase in RZ runs by Lacy. I believe the said correlation is a causal one, which I described in the sky is [not] falling thread last week w/ the solution partly being Rodgers:


“Counter- intuitively, our RZ difficulties have arisen with the emergence of Lacy!

On 1st and 10 at the 8, prior to Lacy Mike McCarthy knew we had to throw to score a TD and took 3 chances throwing to get the TD.

Now with Lacy, our tendency on 1st down, Mike McCarthy calls Lacy's #. And the Ds learned this tendency and expected us to run. If Lacey gets zip, we now have reduced our chances to score by 33%. If Lacy gets 5, we run on second, then run on 3rd and 1 w/ a "power formation" and kick a FG.

The problem is our O-line. As good as they are; they are not road graders. Lacy's yards come from the OL using trap blocks; creating cut back lanes, by pushing DLman in the direction they're already heading; walling off or reach blocking to prevent a DLman from getting to hole; OL , TEs and WR blocking exceptionally on 2nd and 3rd levels; etc. But ask them to move 4 DL back one yard on 3rd and 1 or 2; they simply stink. And last yr our best road grader's toe [Sitton] de-road graded him.

Success in the RZ will return in 2015, because Mike McCarthy has self-scouted the said tendencies and weaknesses. All of us, if rooting for the team GB was playing, and opposing DCs love it when the ball is taken from AR's hands. Also helping is the drafting of a beast-like, TE-like WR [Monty] and the emergence of wide-butt max catch-radiused Rodgers.”

Originally Posted by: Barfarn 



I would argue our OL isn't that good, period, when it comes to run blocking anywhere on the field. Linsley sure helped improve that but we're not a great run blocking unit overall. We needed a guy like Eddie in order to move it on the ground effectively. As you said we're a scheme team when it comes to running. We aren't going to beat many going mano e mano. Conversely, we're a very good pass blocking group. Sitton is tremendous. I think our OL is far overhyped by our fans. We finally have some consistency and we have a nice group...not world beaters but a nice cohesive unit that pass blocks well and Eddie can run over people.

Relative to the rest of the league... shouldn't matter. The reason they show a percentage is to show you what you are vs. 100% or perfection. You should be looking at perfection as your goal not some other team's lack of it.

We can and should do better. Not even sure why we debate such things.
UserPostedImage
Ted Thompson sits on his hands per former GM: "because they’ve had 25 fricking years of great quarterbacks. Of course it works. Try it without a special quarterback."


Barfarn
9 years ago


Relative to the rest of the league... shouldn't matter. The reason they show a percentage is to show you what you are vs. 100% or perfection. You should be looking at perfection as your goal not some other team's lack of it.

We can and should do better. Not even sure why we debate such things.

Originally Posted by: uffda udfa 



This perfection opinion jag is patently vacuous.

Each QB's goal is 100% completion %...DUH! But the QB who strives for pass completion perfection, will never try to attempt a throw through a tight window; he'll take sacks instead of throwing the ball away or risking an INC. He'll always throw to the receiver with the best drop rate or best hands.

Each coach's goal is for 100% RZE...DUH! But the coach who strives for 100% RZE will never kick a FG on 4th and 19; but go for the TD every time.

Any evaluation in the NFL of what is stellar or good or bad is performed by grading on the curve. If NFL grades are handed out a straight grading scale then Don Hutson, who had only one season catching over 866 yards, must be yanked from the Packers and NFL HOFs, immediately!!!!!
earthquake
9 years ago
Perfection is what I would expect the team to strive for, I don't think anyone would expect or hope that they're aiming for less than perfection. This should go without saying. However, when gauging performance, comparing to perfection rather than reality/peer performance will only lead to false conclusions.

I looked back to 2003 (the furthest back the site I was looking at kept records for). The best team in RZE was the Chiefs in 2003 who both lead in points per game and RZE at about 76%. 76% in this sense is the maximum barometer for performance. A typical year, the best any team in the league does is around 68%, and over 70% is an exceptional feat. The historic likelihood that a team does better than 70% in RZE is about 1.8%. Over 73% is nearly unheard of (0.2%), and anything close to perfection (let's say over 90%) is so statistically unlikely that it is essentially impossible.

I do agree that there is room for improvement. 57% isn't a great number, and I expect they will be better in 2015 than they were in 2015. Personally, if the 2015 Packers end up in the 65-70% range and continue to be in the top 5 or so in points per game, I would count that as an exceptional performance. They'll probably get close to record points in a season if they can hit 65-70% RZE and lead the league in scoring. New England set the record in 2007 with a RZE of 70%.

Essentially, even with a RZE outside the top 10 in 2015, the Packers still managed to lead the league in scoring. If they can lead in scoring and show a significant improvement in RZE, they could be the best ever. They don't need to get anywhere close to perfection to do this, thus, comparing to perfection is a futile, meaningless task.
blank
uffda udfa
9 years ago

This perfection opinion jag is patently vacuous.

Each QB's goal is 100% completion %...DUH! But the QB who strives for pass completion perfection, will never try to attempt a throw through a tight window; he'll take sacks instead of throwing the ball away or risking an INC. He'll always throw to the receiver with the best drop rate or best hands.

Each coach's goal is for 100% RZE...DUH! But the coach who strives for 100% RZE will never kick a FG on 4th and 19; but go for the TD every time.

Any evaluation in the NFL of what is stellar or good or bad is performed by grading on the curve. If NFL grades are handed out a straight grading scale then Don Hutson, who had only one season catching over 866 yards, must be yanked from the Packers and NFL HOFs, immediately!!!!!

Originally Posted by: Barfarn 



As you understand perfection, I understand your curve and peer grades. Nevertheless, perfection is the gauge. The Packers shouldn't be looking at besting the Chiefs percentage from over a decade ago.

If your mindset IS to score EVERY time and failure isn't an option, you're much likelier to hit higher heights than you would if you were aiming lower. The Packers should realistically think that scoring a TD is possible EVERY time they get the ball whether they get it at the 50 or at their own 1. It's about mindset. Of course NOBODY is going to attain perfection but to not strive for it and be satisfied with anything less is how you get as close as you possibly can. I don't think Aaron Rodgers and the boys should be happy if they're leading the league in RZ%...they should be pissed they didn't put it in there every single time. That drive is what makes champions...nothing is ever good enough is how you get better. Self congratulatory mindsets lead to complacency and to quotes by guys like Voltaire.

As it pertains to the topic, I know RR ain't going to get us anywhere near perfection.

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Ted Thompson sits on his hands per former GM: "because they’ve had 25 fricking years of great quarterbacks. Of course it works. Try it without a special quarterback."


nerdmann
9 years ago

Both players have pros/cons. Gun to my head and ignoring everything I know about Bryant? Probably Nelson, but only by the slightest of margins.



Yeah that sounds like a good point, but its 16 vs 15. Not a significant difference. A better argument would be Bryant's TD average per season.



All true, though Jordy dealt with an injury situation in 2012 that skewed his stats for that year. Not an excuse, but worth noting.



It's safe to say that it took Jordy longer to develop than Dez, or that Jordy had better players in front of him. Probably a bit of both but I wouldn't argue with either sentiment.



While I of course agree that Rodgers is a better QB than Romo, Romo isn't terrible by any stretch of the imagination, his career passer rating is 97.6. Romo's worst attribute is his propensity for boneheaded plays at the worse moment, which hurts his team but doesn't affect his WR's performance in a significant way.

Anyway while I think this is a solid point, I don't consider it a huge factor, especially if you look at 2013 where Nelson put up very good numbers catching balls from Flynn and Tolzien.



Same answer as above, but only by the slightest of margins.



Dez Bryant has had arguably the best RB in the league the last few years. The Packers run a system that typically spreads the ball around to more players, while the Cowboys lean more heavily on Dez Bryant, despite this, Dez has never put up Calvin Johnson type numbers, only about on par or slightly better than Jordy Nelson, who typically has more competition for targets (2014 being an exception when Nelson was targeted more than Bryant).

I looked at their stats on a 3 year average, taking each players best three years, which should present a better picture of what each player is capable and ignores outside factors like entrenched veterans playing ahead of them.

Nelson:
83 REC, 1365 YARDS, 15.4 AVG, 9.33 TD

Bryant
91 REC, 1312 YARDS, 14.4 AVG, 13.66 TD

Nelson typically does more with less in terms of yards, but Bryant scores significantly more TDs.

Anyway, it's fun to discuss something quantifiable rather than rhetoric for a change. I stand by my original position that Jordy Nelson is a legit #1 WR, probably top 5 in the league. Bryant may be slightly better than Nelson, but that doesn't negate my point.

Originally Posted by: earthquake 



One major difference between Jordy and Dez is that, Dez is "the guy," whereas Jordy is splitting receptions with other very good players.

Nelson and Cobb combined make a comparable salary to Dez and they also get more production between the two. This is from a previous thread. So for those of you who want someone who's "great," there you have it.

“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don't do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”
uffda udfa
9 years ago

One major difference between Jordy and Dez is that, Dez is "the guy," whereas Jordy is splitting receptions with other very good players.

Nelson and Cobb combined make a comparable salary to Dez and they also get more production between the two. This is from a previous thread. So for those of you who want someone who's "great," there you have it.

Originally Posted by: nerdmann 



Who are these playerS? I know RC18 is very good but who else is very good and stealing numbers from Jordy? It ain't RR, it ain't Quarless, it ain't Davante. Who? Lacy the RB? Oh, when I say it about Davante I'm talking about what happened last year, I know he's the team MVP for the season but just hasn't been crowned officially.

Dez had Witten and if you want to count Lacy for Jordy as one of the very goods then Dez had DeMarco. Terrance Williams was only in his 2nd year last year as a 3rd rounder from Baylor.


UserPostedImage
Ted Thompson sits on his hands per former GM: "because they’ve had 25 fricking years of great quarterbacks. Of course it works. Try it without a special quarterback."


buckeyepackfan
9 years ago
I really don't understand all the argument.

Des Bryant is a wr.
Dez Bryant plays for the boys.

Here it is GAMEDAY and all that is being talked about is some head case diva wr who would Have lasted about 1 year in Green Bay because Thompson and McCarthy wouldn't have put up with his crap.

Probably why they passed on him.

Went back and watched last weeks game.

RR wasn't even in on goal line situations as far as I could tell.

Being the 1st preseason game could be They were experimenting with different formations or trying to create certain matchups.

I know Montgomery was one target.

Preseason let's see If he can make a play on the goal line.

RR is going to be a piece of the puzzle.

Very talented piece!




I was addicted to The Hokey Pokey, but I turned myself around!
musccy
9 years ago



If your mindset IS to score EVERY time and failure isn't an option, you're much likelier to hit higher heights.

uffda wrote:



Aside from Julius Peppers telling dbs to take knees in the NFCCG what evidence is there that the Packers don't aspire to score TDS when they have the ball?
uffda udfa
9 years ago

Aside from Julius Peppers telling dbs to take knees in the NFCCG what evidence is there that the Packers don't aspire to score TDS when they have the ball?

Originally Posted by: musccy 



Thanks for the wonderful memory of Hands Peppers. 😁

There is a difference between wanting to score every time and making it completely unacceptable not to.

When you go to work you want to have a great day...something may happen and you may make an excuse to yourself for why it can't be. You could push through that and drive yourself to not lose your focus and make it the great day you want it to be. Sometimes, things don't go your way in football and you get discouraged or get "out of sync" or "lose momentum". I'm saying if you're absolutely driven and focused that doesn't happen. We've all seen Rodgers with that laser focus in his eyes and we've also seen him not have that look. I'm saying perfection is having that look every single time.

Sell out with all you have every single time. Not this we're only human...it's good enough. The drive of Michael Jordan along with his talent made him the icon he is. Without his drive his psychotic drive to be the very very very best he wouldn't have been. That drive is available to every single human being.


UserPostedImage
Ted Thompson sits on his hands per former GM: "because they’ve had 25 fricking years of great quarterbacks. Of course it works. Try it without a special quarterback."


musccy
9 years ago
Why?

For our viewing pleasure [whead] . I'd like to thank Julius for contributing to my receding hairline that day.

Anyway, aside from JP/Morgan B, I don't see evidence that the Packers do/don't have the AR laser like focus you speak of. Players like TDs, it pads their stats. Agents like TDs. Coaches like TDs. Fans like TDs. People not named Mason Crosby or Adam Vinatieri LOVE TDs!
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