Wade
  • Wade
  • Veteran Member Topic Starter
10 years ago
Okay, this is my best guess at a possible trade-down scenario, but one that does its best to eliminate the factor of "Wade's wishful thinking".

I used the engine of first-pick.com, but:
1. I only drafted players I think have better than 67% odds of being available at the pick selected. If a player was still available in the game at pick #X but I think him less than a 2/3 chance of actually being there I didn't take him.
1a. But I did not allow myself to "add back" earlier picks by the first-pick.com computerthat I thought were major reaches. A player thus left the board two different ways: the computer took him off the board; or I thought he'd be gone by the pick in question.
2. I did draft BPA throughout, but if it was close (say Deone Bucannon and Ju'Wuan James), I went with the bigger position of need (i.e., safety). Annoyingly, this meant I ended up only getting one OL despite the extra picks.
3. I allowed myself just two trade downs in the entire draft.
4. I only considered the "two worst trade offers" shown by the game at a given pick.
5. I didn't allow myself to trade with Detroit or Chicago (on "never trade within division" theory) or with San Francisco or Seattle (never trade with serious playoff competition). I did, however, allow myself to trade with Minnesota for my first trade on the principle that "the Vikings are always idiots and going to be losers regardless".
6. Drafted players listed by primary position I expect them to play in GB.

Here's what I came up with:

First round.

Trade #21 with Minnesota for 2nd #8, 3rd #8, 3rd #32, and 4th #8.
(Minnesota picked Derek Carr...hehe.)
Still available at #21 were: Dennard, M. Lee, Ealy, Fuller, Ward, and Hageman. PH citizens start calling for my head. I tried to add B J Raji to the deal, but the Vikings balked.

Second round:

Trade #8 to Tennessee for #10 in 2nd and #16 in 3rd. Trading now done for the rest of the draft.
(Tennessee picks Morgan Moses...hehe)
Also available at #8 but not at #10 -- PH citizens continue to simmer about the first trade.
Pick #10: Deone Bucannon, FS
Also available: Ju'Wuan james, Kyle Van Noy, Ryan Shazier, Terrence Brooks, Austin-Seferian-Jenkins.] PH fans turn up the heat of annoyance at me skipping Shazier twice.
Pick #21: Jeremiah Attaochu.
[Also available: DaQuan Jones, Allen Robinson, Jordan Matthews, Lamarcus Joyner, Troy Niklas, Weston Richburg.]
PH still muttering about Dennard and Shazier.

Third round:

Pick #8: Chris Borland, ILB.
Also available: Jackson Jeffcoat, Kareem Martin, Martavis Bryant, Travis Swanson. Demarcus Lawrence, Charles Sims, Bashaud Breeland.
Pick #16: Daniel McCullers, NT
Also available: Keith McGill, Louchiez Purifoy, Travis Swanson, Anthony Johnson
Pick #21: Charles Sims, RB.
Also available: Carlos Hyde, Jaylen Watkins, Purifoy, Cody Latimer.
Pick #32: Rashaad Reynolds, CB.
Also available: Craig Loston, C.J. Fiedorowicz, Jared Abbrederis, Shayne Skov, Keith McGill
Pick #34: Christian Jones, ILB.
Also available: Chris Smith, Fiedorowitz, Bryan Stork, Dion Bailey

Fourth round:

Pick #8: Dri Archer, PR/KR
Also available: Dion Bailey, Skov, Cameron Fleming, Antone Exum, Ryan Grant, Devin Street, Josh Huff.
Pick #21: Nat Berhe, SS.
Also available: Ahmad Dixon, Caraun Reid, Ed Stinson. Anthony Steen, Trai Turner, Preston Brown, Dontae Johnson. Michael Schofield, Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, Marqueston Huff.

Fifth round:
Pick #21: Russell Bodine, OG

Also available: Brent Urban, Charles Leno, James White, David Fales, Kevin Pierre-Louis
Pick #36: Ryan Carrethers, DT.
Also available: Max Bullough, Xavier Grimble, Colt Lyerla, Kevin Norwood, Christian Bryant, Tyler Starr, Brandon Thomas, Ross Cockrell

Sixth round:
Pick #21: Matt Hazel, WR

Also available: Devon Kennard, James White, Rajion Neal, Seantrel Henderson, Jonathan Newsome, Marcel Jensen, Matt Armstrong, Trey Millard.

Seventh round:
Pick #21: Aaron Colvin, CB.

Also available: Marcus Williams, De'Anthony Thomas, John Brown, John Urschel, Justin Britt, Raijon Neal, Tajh Boyd, Derrell Johnson.





And do not be conformed to this world, but be transformed by the renewing of your mind, that you may prove what is that good and acceptable and perfect will of God.
Romans 12:2 (NKJV)
Tezzy
10 years ago
A+ for effort.
On top of every beard grows a man.
"The Bears are shell-shocked... and it's breaking my heart."
play2win
10 years ago

Okay, this is my best guess at a possible trade-down scenario, but one that does its best to eliminate the factor of "Wade's wishful thinking".

I used the engine of first-pick.com, but:
1. I only drafted players I think have better than 67% odds of being available at the pick selected. If a player was still available in the game at pick #X but I think him less than a 2/3 chance of actually being there I didn't take him.
1a. But I did not allow myself to "add back" earlier picks by the first-pick.com computerthat I thought were major reaches. A player thus left the board two different ways: the computer took him off the board; or I thought he'd be gone by the pick in question.
2. I did draft BPA throughout, but if it was close (say Deone Bucannon and Ju'Wuan James), I went with the bigger position of need (i.e., safety). Annoyingly, this meant I ended up only getting one OL despite the extra picks.
3. I allowed myself just two trade downs in the entire draft.
4. I only considered the "two worst trade offers" shown by the game at a given pick.
5. I didn't allow myself to trade with Detroit or Chicago (on "never trade within division" theory) or with San Francisco or Seattle (never trade with serious playoff competition). I did, however, allow myself to trade with Minnesota for my first trade on the principle that "the Vikings are always idiots and going to be losers regardless".
6. Drafted players listed by primary position I expect them to play in GB.

Here's what I came up with:

First round.

Trade #21 with Minnesota for 2nd #8, 3rd #8, 3rd #32, and 4th #8.
(Minnesota picked Derek Carr...hehe.)
Still available at #21 were: Dennard, M. Lee, Ealy, Fuller, Ward, and Hageman. PH citizens start calling for my head. I tried to add B J Raji to the deal, but the Vikings balked.

Second round:

Trade #8 to Tennessee for #10 in 2nd and #16 in 3rd. Trading now done for the rest of the draft.
(Tennessee picks Morgan Moses...hehe)
Also available at #8 but not at #10 -- PH citizens continue to simmer about the first trade.
Pick #10: Deone Bucannon, FS
Also available: Ju'Wuan james, Kyle Van Noy, Ryan Shazier, Terrence Brooks, Austin-Seferian-Jenkins.] PH fans turn up the heat of annoyance at me skipping Shazier twice.
Pick #21: Jeremiah Attaochu.
[Also available: DaQuan Jones, Allen Robinson, Jordan Matthews, Lamarcus Joyner, Troy Niklas, Weston Richburg.]
PH still muttering about Dennard and Shazier.

Third round:

Pick #8: Chris Borland, ILB.
Also available: Jackson Jeffcoat, Kareem Martin, Martavis Bryant, Travis Swanson. Demarcus Lawrence, Charles Sims, Bashaud Breeland.
Pick #16: Daniel McCullers, NT
Also available: Keith McGill, Louchiez Purifoy, Travis Swanson, Anthony Johnson
Pick #21: Charles Sims, RB.
Also available: Carlos Hyde, Jaylen Watkins, Purifoy, Cody Latimer.
Pick #32: Rashaad Reynolds, CB.
Also available: Craig Loston, C.J. Fiedorowicz, Jared Abbrederis, Shayne Skov, Keith McGill
Pick #34: Christian Jones, ILB.
Also available: Chris Smith, Fiedorowitz, Bryan Stork, Dion Bailey

Fourth round:

Pick #8: Dri Archer, PR/KR
Also available: Dion Bailey, Skov, Cameron Fleming, Antone Exum, Ryan Grant, Devin Street, Josh Huff.
Pick #21: Nat Berhe, SS.
Also available: Ahmad Dixon, Caraun Reid, Ed Stinson. Anthony Steen, Trai Turner, Preston Brown, Dontae Johnson. Michael Schofield, Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, Marqueston Huff.

Fifth round:
Pick #21: Russell Bodine, OG

Also available: Brent Urban, Charles Leno, James White, David Fales, Kevin Pierre-Louis
Pick #36: Ryan Carrethers, DT.
Also available: Max Bullough, Xavier Grimble, Colt Lyerla, Kevin Norwood, Christian Bryant, Tyler Starr, Brandon Thomas, Ross Cockrell

Sixth round:
Pick #21: Matt Hazel, WR

Also available: Devon Kennard, James White, Rajion Neal, Seantrel Henderson, Jonathan Newsome, Marcel Jensen, Matt Armstrong, Trey Millard.

Seventh round:
Pick #21: Aaron Colvin, CB.

Also available: Marcus Williams, De'Anthony Thomas, John Brown, John Urschel, Justin Britt, Raijon Neal, Tajh Boyd, Derrell Johnson.




Originally Posted by: Wade 



Yeah, that's a lot of work. I just think we miss out on a lot of top players. I doubt Bucannon falls that far.
wpr
  • wpr
  • Preferred Member
10 years ago
Hey you peeked. That is mine too.
UserPostedImage
Fan Shout
Zero2Cool (7h) : February 5, 2002 (age 23) ok no. packers.com is wrong
Zero2Cool (7h) : Micah Robinson is only 19??
Zero2Cool (8h) : 6 first rounders on Packers defense now
Zero2Cool (20h) : LB Isaiah Simmons. Signed. Called it!!! Oh yeah!
Martha Careful (20h) : ty bboystyle...fat fingers
bboystyle (20h) : Tom*
Martha Careful (28-Apr) : RIP Packer Safety Tim Brown
beast (27-Apr) : Yeah, but also some of the wording suggestions Jax only pranked called the QB, not the others... and if he had an open spreadsheet & 3 calls
beast (27-Apr) : Thank goodness he's not leaving the Turtle in the Red Tide
Mucky Tundra (27-Apr) : Cowboys 1st round pick Tyler Booker will indeed be bringing his pet turtle to Dallas with him
Mucky Tundra (27-Apr) : that contained all prospects info and contact
Mucky Tundra (27-Apr) : beast, according the Falcons statement Jax came across it on an ipad. If I had to guess, probably an open spread sheet or something
Zero2Cool (27-Apr) : Simmons put up an emoji with cheese.
beast (27-Apr) : Not sure anyone is interested in Isaiah Simmons... Collin Oliver might of taken his potential slot
beast (27-Apr) : I'm going with Jax Ulbrich is not telling the whole truth... he accidentally came across it? Why would a defensive coordinator have a QB #?
Zero2Cool (27-Apr) : He's not that great, but final piece of the script.\
Zero2Cool (27-Apr) : If we add Isaiah Simmons, book your Super Bowl tickets
Mucky Tundra (27-Apr) : Colts 1st round TE Tyler Warren also got prank called, was that Jax Ulbrich as well?
Zero2Cool (27-Apr) : Jax Ulbrich, Jeff Ulbrich’s son, released an apology for his role in the Shedeur Sanders prank call.
Martha Careful (27-Apr) : apparently he did not participate in practice or play on the east west shrine game nor the NFL combine. The kid was a mediocre spoiled brat
Mucky Tundra (27-Apr) : Yeah that one that was a super wounded duck that Sanders supporters are highlighting to prove a point
Zero2Cool (27-Apr) : Shough is the guy who missed guys at combine isn't he?
beast (27-Apr) : It's not official until I'm dead! I have a chance still! (Not really)
Mucky Tundra (27-Apr) : I could feel my body decomposing in real time when I read that
Mucky Tundra (27-Apr) : @MIKEYSAINRISTIL Tyler Shough will officially be the last person drafted to the NFL born in the 1900’s
Mucky Tundra (26-Apr) : saw the tweet, he meant the city
Mucky Tundra (26-Apr) : Was that for the team or the city?
Zero2Cool (26-Apr) : Adam Schefter @AdamSchefter · 3m Draft grade is in: Green Bay gets an A. The people, the city, the venue were all superb. NFL Draft’s next
Zero2Cool (26-Apr) : Matt LaFleur says Jaire Alexander is participating in #Packers offseason program, which has been conducted virtually during this first week
Zero2Cool (26-Apr) : ✅ ...
buckeyepackfan (26-Apr) : Check
Zero2Cool (26-Apr) : Matthew Golden cahanged 81 to 22??
TheKanataThrilla (26-Apr) : Sam Howell to Vikings...guess no Aaron
Martha Careful (26-Apr) : 1 round 7 min, with one extra minute if there is a trade. 2nd round 4 minutes, 3rd -3, 2 thereafter IMO
Martha Careful (26-Apr) : Agree
dfosterf (26-Apr) : Great idea imo
dfosterf (26-Apr) : 1st round to 7 minutes with one extension
dfosterf (26-Apr) : NFL comissioner wants to shorten the 2st
Mucky Tundra (26-Apr) : @jalenreagors They’re discussing if Sheduer can go back to college on NFL Network LMFAOOOOO
beast (26-Apr) : Great point Martha
beast (26-Apr) : Buddy Ryan used to say if a candy bar goes missing, there are two to blame, Rex and Rob 🤪 jk 😁
Martha Careful (26-Apr) : Bum Phillips used to say there are two ways to get better. Get better players or get players to play better. We have a new DL coach
Zero2Cool (26-Apr) : Yes. Look at the losses last year. They can win.
beast (26-Apr) : Can Packers win with their current DL?
bboystyle (26-Apr) : waiting for a pass rusher.
dfosterf (25-Apr) : 5 minutes between picks in the 3rd
dfosterf (25-Apr) : 3rd. Hate this phone
dfosterf (25-Apr) : 4rd
dfosterf (25-Apr) : 5 minutes in the 4
dfosterf (25-Apr) : 7 minutes between picks in the 2nd round
Please sign in to use Fan Shout
2024 Packers Schedule
Friday, Sep 6 @ 7:15 PM
Eagles
Sunday, Sep 15 @ 12:00 PM
COLTS
Sunday, Sep 22 @ 12:00 PM
Titans
Sunday, Sep 29 @ 12:00 PM
VIKINGS
Sunday, Oct 6 @ 3:25 PM
Rams
Sunday, Oct 13 @ 12:00 PM
CARDINALS
Sunday, Oct 20 @ 12:00 PM
TEXANS
Sunday, Oct 27 @ 12:00 PM
Jaguars
Sunday, Nov 3 @ 3:25 PM
LIONS
Sunday, Nov 17 @ 12:00 PM
Bears
Sunday, Nov 24 @ 3:25 PM
49ERS
Thursday, Nov 28 @ 7:20 PM
DOLPHINS
Thursday, Dec 5 @ 7:15 PM
Lions
Sunday, Dec 15 @ 7:20 PM
Seahawks
Monday, Dec 23 @ 7:15 PM
SAINTS
Sunday, Dec 29 @ 3:25 PM
Vikings
Sunday, Jan 5 @ 12:00 PM
BEARS
Recent Topics
53m / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

55m / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

1h / Packers Draft Threads / Mucky Tundra

1h / Green Bay Packers Talk / wpr

1h / Green Bay Packers Talk / wpr

18h / Green Bay Packers Talk / wpr

27-Apr / Packers Draft Threads / Mucky Tundra

27-Apr / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

27-Apr / Green Bay Packers Talk / Mucky Tundra

27-Apr / Around The NFL / bboystyle

27-Apr / Green Bay Packers Talk / Mucky Tundra

27-Apr / Green Bay Packers Talk / Martha Careful

27-Apr / Packers Draft Threads / wpr

27-Apr / Packers Draft Threads / wpr

27-Apr / Packers Draft Threads / wpr

Headlines
Copyright © 2006 - 2025 PackersHome.com™. All Rights Reserved.