Wade
  • Wade
  • Veteran Member Topic Starter
10 years ago
Okay, this is my best guess at a possible trade-down scenario, but one that does its best to eliminate the factor of "Wade's wishful thinking".

I used the engine of first-pick.com, but:
1. I only drafted players I think have better than 67% odds of being available at the pick selected. If a player was still available in the game at pick #X but I think him less than a 2/3 chance of actually being there I didn't take him.
1a. But I did not allow myself to "add back" earlier picks by the first-pick.com computerthat I thought were major reaches. A player thus left the board two different ways: the computer took him off the board; or I thought he'd be gone by the pick in question.
2. I did draft BPA throughout, but if it was close (say Deone Bucannon and Ju'Wuan James), I went with the bigger position of need (i.e., safety). Annoyingly, this meant I ended up only getting one OL despite the extra picks.
3. I allowed myself just two trade downs in the entire draft.
4. I only considered the "two worst trade offers" shown by the game at a given pick.
5. I didn't allow myself to trade with Detroit or Chicago (on "never trade within division" theory) or with San Francisco or Seattle (never trade with serious playoff competition). I did, however, allow myself to trade with Minnesota for my first trade on the principle that "the Vikings are always idiots and going to be losers regardless".
6. Drafted players listed by primary position I expect them to play in GB.

Here's what I came up with:

First round.

Trade #21 with Minnesota for 2nd #8, 3rd #8, 3rd #32, and 4th #8.
(Minnesota picked Derek Carr...hehe.)
Still available at #21 were: Dennard, M. Lee, Ealy, Fuller, Ward, and Hageman. PH citizens start calling for my head. I tried to add B J Raji to the deal, but the Vikings balked.

Second round:

Trade #8 to Tennessee for #10 in 2nd and #16 in 3rd. Trading now done for the rest of the draft.
(Tennessee picks Morgan Moses...hehe)
Also available at #8 but not at #10 -- PH citizens continue to simmer about the first trade.
Pick #10: Deone Bucannon, FS
Also available: Ju'Wuan james, Kyle Van Noy, Ryan Shazier, Terrence Brooks, Austin-Seferian-Jenkins.] PH fans turn up the heat of annoyance at me skipping Shazier twice.
Pick #21: Jeremiah Attaochu.
[Also available: DaQuan Jones, Allen Robinson, Jordan Matthews, Lamarcus Joyner, Troy Niklas, Weston Richburg.]
PH still muttering about Dennard and Shazier.

Third round:

Pick #8: Chris Borland, ILB.
Also available: Jackson Jeffcoat, Kareem Martin, Martavis Bryant, Travis Swanson. Demarcus Lawrence, Charles Sims, Bashaud Breeland.
Pick #16: Daniel McCullers, NT
Also available: Keith McGill, Louchiez Purifoy, Travis Swanson, Anthony Johnson
Pick #21: Charles Sims, RB.
Also available: Carlos Hyde, Jaylen Watkins, Purifoy, Cody Latimer.
Pick #32: Rashaad Reynolds, CB.
Also available: Craig Loston, C.J. Fiedorowicz, Jared Abbrederis, Shayne Skov, Keith McGill
Pick #34: Christian Jones, ILB.
Also available: Chris Smith, Fiedorowitz, Bryan Stork, Dion Bailey

Fourth round:

Pick #8: Dri Archer, PR/KR
Also available: Dion Bailey, Skov, Cameron Fleming, Antone Exum, Ryan Grant, Devin Street, Josh Huff.
Pick #21: Nat Berhe, SS.
Also available: Ahmad Dixon, Caraun Reid, Ed Stinson. Anthony Steen, Trai Turner, Preston Brown, Dontae Johnson. Michael Schofield, Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, Marqueston Huff.

Fifth round:
Pick #21: Russell Bodine, OG

Also available: Brent Urban, Charles Leno, James White, David Fales, Kevin Pierre-Louis
Pick #36: Ryan Carrethers, DT.
Also available: Max Bullough, Xavier Grimble, Colt Lyerla, Kevin Norwood, Christian Bryant, Tyler Starr, Brandon Thomas, Ross Cockrell

Sixth round:
Pick #21: Matt Hazel, WR

Also available: Devon Kennard, James White, Rajion Neal, Seantrel Henderson, Jonathan Newsome, Marcel Jensen, Matt Armstrong, Trey Millard.

Seventh round:
Pick #21: Aaron Colvin, CB.

Also available: Marcus Williams, De'Anthony Thomas, John Brown, John Urschel, Justin Britt, Raijon Neal, Tajh Boyd, Derrell Johnson.





And do not be conformed to this world, but be transformed by the renewing of your mind, that you may prove what is that good and acceptable and perfect will of God.
Romans 12:2 (NKJV)
Tezzy
10 years ago
A+ for effort.
On top of every beard grows a man.
"The Bears are shell-shocked... and it's breaking my heart."
play2win
10 years ago

Okay, this is my best guess at a possible trade-down scenario, but one that does its best to eliminate the factor of "Wade's wishful thinking".

I used the engine of first-pick.com, but:
1. I only drafted players I think have better than 67% odds of being available at the pick selected. If a player was still available in the game at pick #X but I think him less than a 2/3 chance of actually being there I didn't take him.
1a. But I did not allow myself to "add back" earlier picks by the first-pick.com computerthat I thought were major reaches. A player thus left the board two different ways: the computer took him off the board; or I thought he'd be gone by the pick in question.
2. I did draft BPA throughout, but if it was close (say Deone Bucannon and Ju'Wuan James), I went with the bigger position of need (i.e., safety). Annoyingly, this meant I ended up only getting one OL despite the extra picks.
3. I allowed myself just two trade downs in the entire draft.
4. I only considered the "two worst trade offers" shown by the game at a given pick.
5. I didn't allow myself to trade with Detroit or Chicago (on "never trade within division" theory) or with San Francisco or Seattle (never trade with serious playoff competition). I did, however, allow myself to trade with Minnesota for my first trade on the principle that "the Vikings are always idiots and going to be losers regardless".
6. Drafted players listed by primary position I expect them to play in GB.

Here's what I came up with:

First round.

Trade #21 with Minnesota for 2nd #8, 3rd #8, 3rd #32, and 4th #8.
(Minnesota picked Derek Carr...hehe.)
Still available at #21 were: Dennard, M. Lee, Ealy, Fuller, Ward, and Hageman. PH citizens start calling for my head. I tried to add B J Raji to the deal, but the Vikings balked.

Second round:

Trade #8 to Tennessee for #10 in 2nd and #16 in 3rd. Trading now done for the rest of the draft.
(Tennessee picks Morgan Moses...hehe)
Also available at #8 but not at #10 -- PH citizens continue to simmer about the first trade.
Pick #10: Deone Bucannon, FS
Also available: Ju'Wuan james, Kyle Van Noy, Ryan Shazier, Terrence Brooks, Austin-Seferian-Jenkins.] PH fans turn up the heat of annoyance at me skipping Shazier twice.
Pick #21: Jeremiah Attaochu.
[Also available: DaQuan Jones, Allen Robinson, Jordan Matthews, Lamarcus Joyner, Troy Niklas, Weston Richburg.]
PH still muttering about Dennard and Shazier.

Third round:

Pick #8: Chris Borland, ILB.
Also available: Jackson Jeffcoat, Kareem Martin, Martavis Bryant, Travis Swanson. Demarcus Lawrence, Charles Sims, Bashaud Breeland.
Pick #16: Daniel McCullers, NT
Also available: Keith McGill, Louchiez Purifoy, Travis Swanson, Anthony Johnson
Pick #21: Charles Sims, RB.
Also available: Carlos Hyde, Jaylen Watkins, Purifoy, Cody Latimer.
Pick #32: Rashaad Reynolds, CB.
Also available: Craig Loston, C.J. Fiedorowicz, Jared Abbrederis, Shayne Skov, Keith McGill
Pick #34: Christian Jones, ILB.
Also available: Chris Smith, Fiedorowitz, Bryan Stork, Dion Bailey

Fourth round:

Pick #8: Dri Archer, PR/KR
Also available: Dion Bailey, Skov, Cameron Fleming, Antone Exum, Ryan Grant, Devin Street, Josh Huff.
Pick #21: Nat Berhe, SS.
Also available: Ahmad Dixon, Caraun Reid, Ed Stinson. Anthony Steen, Trai Turner, Preston Brown, Dontae Johnson. Michael Schofield, Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, Marqueston Huff.

Fifth round:
Pick #21: Russell Bodine, OG

Also available: Brent Urban, Charles Leno, James White, David Fales, Kevin Pierre-Louis
Pick #36: Ryan Carrethers, DT.
Also available: Max Bullough, Xavier Grimble, Colt Lyerla, Kevin Norwood, Christian Bryant, Tyler Starr, Brandon Thomas, Ross Cockrell

Sixth round:
Pick #21: Matt Hazel, WR

Also available: Devon Kennard, James White, Rajion Neal, Seantrel Henderson, Jonathan Newsome, Marcel Jensen, Matt Armstrong, Trey Millard.

Seventh round:
Pick #21: Aaron Colvin, CB.

Also available: Marcus Williams, De'Anthony Thomas, John Brown, John Urschel, Justin Britt, Raijon Neal, Tajh Boyd, Derrell Johnson.




Originally Posted by: Wade 



Yeah, that's a lot of work. I just think we miss out on a lot of top players. I doubt Bucannon falls that far.
wpr
  • wpr
  • Preferred Member
10 years ago
Hey you peeked. That is mine too.
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Zero2Cool (11h) : QB coach Sean Mannion
Zero2Cool (11h) : DL Coach DeMarcus Covington
dfosterf (13h) : from ft Belvoir, Quantico and points south. Somber reminder of this tragedy at Reagan Nat Airport
dfosterf (13h) : So eerily quiet here in Alexandria. I live in the flight path of commercial craft coming from the south and west, plus the military craft
dfosterf (13h) : So eeri
Mucky Tundra (17h) : Now that's a thought, maybe they're looking at the college ranks? Maybe not head coaches but DC/assistant DCs with league experience?
beast (18h) : College Coaches wouldn't want that publicly, as it would hurt recruiting and they might not get the job.
beast (18h) : I thought they were supposed to publicly announce them, at least the NFL ones. Hafley was from college, so I believe different rules.
Mucky Tundra (18h) : Who knows who they're interviewing? I mean, nobody knew about Hafley and then out of nowhere he was hired
beast (21h) : I wonder what's taking so long with hiring a DL coach, 2 of the 3 known to interview have already been hired elsewhere.
Zero2Cool (27-Jan) : Packers coach Matt LaFleur hires Luke Getsy as senior assistant, extends Rich Bisaccia's deal
Zero2Cool (27-Jan) : Chiefs again huh? I guess another Super Bowl I'll be finding something else to do.
Mucky Tundra (27-Jan) : Chiefs Eagles...again...sigh
dfosterf (27-Jan) : Happy Birthday Dave!
Mucky Tundra (27-Jan) : happy birthday dhazer
TheKanataThrilla (26-Jan) : Exactly buck...Washington came up with the ball. It is just a shitty coincidence one week later
buckeyepackfan (26-Jan) : I forgot, they corrected the call a week later. Lol btw HAPPY BIRTHDAY dhazer!
buckeyepackfan (26-Jan) : That brings up the question, why wasn't Nixon down by contact? I think that was the point Kanata was making.
buckeyepackfan (26-Jan) : Turnovers rule, win the turnover battle, win the game.
packerfanoutwest (26-Jan) : well, he was
TheKanataThrilla (26-Jan) : Eagles down by contact on the fumble....fuck you NFL
Mucky Tundra (26-Jan) : I think this games over
beast (26-Jan) : Eagles sure get a lot of fumbles on kickoffs
Mucky Tundra (26-Jan) : This game looks too big for Washington
packerfanoutwest (26-Jan) : that being said, The Ravens are the Browns
packerfanoutwest (26-Jan) : Browns, Dolphins have longest AFC Championship droughts
packerfanoutwest (26-Jan) : As of today, Cowboys have longest NFC Championship drought,
beast (26-Jan) : Someone pointed out, with Raiders hiring Carroll, the division games between Carroll and Jim Harbaugh are back on (who can whine more games)
beast (26-Jan) : I'm confused, Pete Carroll and Brian Schottenheimer? When Todd Monken, Joe Brady, Kellen Moore, Kliff Kingsbury and Zac Robinson are availab
Zero2Cool (25-Jan) : Any reason I'm catching a shot here about my intelligence?
Martha Careful (25-Jan) : thank you Mucky for sticking up for me
Martha Careful (25-Jan) : some of those people are smarter than you zero. However Pete Carroll is not
Mucky Tundra (24-Jan) : Rude!
beast (24-Jan) : Martha? 😋
Zero2Cool (24-Jan) : Raiders hired someone from the elderly home.
dfosterf (24-Jan) : I'm going with a combination of the two.
beast (24-Jan) : Either the Cowboys have no idea what they're doing, or they're targeting their former OC, currently the Eagles OC
Zero2Cool (23-Jan) : Fake news. Cowboys say no
Zero2Cool (23-Jan) : Mystery candidate in the Cowboys head coaching search believed to be Packers ST Coordinator Rich Bisaccia.
beast (23-Jan) : Also why do both NYC teams have absolutely horrible OL for over a decade?
beast (23-Jan) : I wonder why the Jets always hire defensive coaches to be head coach
Zero2Cool (22-Jan) : Still HC positions available out there. I wonder if Hafley pops up for one
Zero2Cool (22-Jan) : Trent Baalke is out as the Jaguars GM.
dfosterf (22-Jan) : Jeff Hafley would have been a better choice, fortunately they don't know that. Someone will figure that out next off season
Zero2Cool (22-Jan) : Aaron Glenn Planning To Take Jets HC Job
dfosterf (22-Jan) : Martha- C'est mon boulot! 😁
Zero2Cool (22-Jan) : Thank you
wpr (22-Jan) : Z, glad you are feeling better.
wpr (22-Jan) : My son and D-I-L work for UM. It's a way to pick on them.
Zero2Cool (22-Jan) : Thank you. I rarely get sick, and even more rarely sick to the point I can't work.
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