Wade
  • Wade
  • Veteran Member Topic Starter
10 years ago
Okay, this is my best guess at a possible trade-down scenario, but one that does its best to eliminate the factor of "Wade's wishful thinking".

I used the engine of first-pick.com, but:
1. I only drafted players I think have better than 67% odds of being available at the pick selected. If a player was still available in the game at pick #X but I think him less than a 2/3 chance of actually being there I didn't take him.
1a. But I did not allow myself to "add back" earlier picks by the first-pick.com computerthat I thought were major reaches. A player thus left the board two different ways: the computer took him off the board; or I thought he'd be gone by the pick in question.
2. I did draft BPA throughout, but if it was close (say Deone Bucannon and Ju'Wuan James), I went with the bigger position of need (i.e., safety). Annoyingly, this meant I ended up only getting one OL despite the extra picks.
3. I allowed myself just two trade downs in the entire draft.
4. I only considered the "two worst trade offers" shown by the game at a given pick.
5. I didn't allow myself to trade with Detroit or Chicago (on "never trade within division" theory) or with San Francisco or Seattle (never trade with serious playoff competition). I did, however, allow myself to trade with Minnesota for my first trade on the principle that "the Vikings are always idiots and going to be losers regardless".
6. Drafted players listed by primary position I expect them to play in GB.

Here's what I came up with:

First round.

Trade #21 with Minnesota for 2nd #8, 3rd #8, 3rd #32, and 4th #8.
(Minnesota picked Derek Carr...hehe.)
Still available at #21 were: Dennard, M. Lee, Ealy, Fuller, Ward, and Hageman. PH citizens start calling for my head. I tried to add B J Raji to the deal, but the Vikings balked.

Second round:

Trade #8 to Tennessee for #10 in 2nd and #16 in 3rd. Trading now done for the rest of the draft.
(Tennessee picks Morgan Moses...hehe)
Also available at #8 but not at #10 -- PH citizens continue to simmer about the first trade.
Pick #10: Deone Bucannon, FS
Also available: Ju'Wuan james, Kyle Van Noy, Ryan Shazier, Terrence Brooks, Austin-Seferian-Jenkins.] PH fans turn up the heat of annoyance at me skipping Shazier twice.
Pick #21: Jeremiah Attaochu.
[Also available: DaQuan Jones, Allen Robinson, Jordan Matthews, Lamarcus Joyner, Troy Niklas, Weston Richburg.]
PH still muttering about Dennard and Shazier.

Third round:

Pick #8: Chris Borland, ILB.
Also available: Jackson Jeffcoat, Kareem Martin, Martavis Bryant, Travis Swanson. Demarcus Lawrence, Charles Sims, Bashaud Breeland.
Pick #16: Daniel McCullers, NT
Also available: Keith McGill, Louchiez Purifoy, Travis Swanson, Anthony Johnson
Pick #21: Charles Sims, RB.
Also available: Carlos Hyde, Jaylen Watkins, Purifoy, Cody Latimer.
Pick #32: Rashaad Reynolds, CB.
Also available: Craig Loston, C.J. Fiedorowicz, Jared Abbrederis, Shayne Skov, Keith McGill
Pick #34: Christian Jones, ILB.
Also available: Chris Smith, Fiedorowitz, Bryan Stork, Dion Bailey

Fourth round:

Pick #8: Dri Archer, PR/KR
Also available: Dion Bailey, Skov, Cameron Fleming, Antone Exum, Ryan Grant, Devin Street, Josh Huff.
Pick #21: Nat Berhe, SS.
Also available: Ahmad Dixon, Caraun Reid, Ed Stinson. Anthony Steen, Trai Turner, Preston Brown, Dontae Johnson. Michael Schofield, Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, Marqueston Huff.

Fifth round:
Pick #21: Russell Bodine, OG

Also available: Brent Urban, Charles Leno, James White, David Fales, Kevin Pierre-Louis
Pick #36: Ryan Carrethers, DT.
Also available: Max Bullough, Xavier Grimble, Colt Lyerla, Kevin Norwood, Christian Bryant, Tyler Starr, Brandon Thomas, Ross Cockrell

Sixth round:
Pick #21: Matt Hazel, WR

Also available: Devon Kennard, James White, Rajion Neal, Seantrel Henderson, Jonathan Newsome, Marcel Jensen, Matt Armstrong, Trey Millard.

Seventh round:
Pick #21: Aaron Colvin, CB.

Also available: Marcus Williams, De'Anthony Thomas, John Brown, John Urschel, Justin Britt, Raijon Neal, Tajh Boyd, Derrell Johnson.





And do not be conformed to this world, but be transformed by the renewing of your mind, that you may prove what is that good and acceptable and perfect will of God.
Romans 12:2 (NKJV)
Tezzy
10 years ago
A+ for effort.
On top of every beard grows a man.
"The Bears are shell-shocked... and it's breaking my heart."
play2win
10 years ago

Okay, this is my best guess at a possible trade-down scenario, but one that does its best to eliminate the factor of "Wade's wishful thinking".

I used the engine of first-pick.com, but:
1. I only drafted players I think have better than 67% odds of being available at the pick selected. If a player was still available in the game at pick #X but I think him less than a 2/3 chance of actually being there I didn't take him.
1a. But I did not allow myself to "add back" earlier picks by the first-pick.com computerthat I thought were major reaches. A player thus left the board two different ways: the computer took him off the board; or I thought he'd be gone by the pick in question.
2. I did draft BPA throughout, but if it was close (say Deone Bucannon and Ju'Wuan James), I went with the bigger position of need (i.e., safety). Annoyingly, this meant I ended up only getting one OL despite the extra picks.
3. I allowed myself just two trade downs in the entire draft.
4. I only considered the "two worst trade offers" shown by the game at a given pick.
5. I didn't allow myself to trade with Detroit or Chicago (on "never trade within division" theory) or with San Francisco or Seattle (never trade with serious playoff competition). I did, however, allow myself to trade with Minnesota for my first trade on the principle that "the Vikings are always idiots and going to be losers regardless".
6. Drafted players listed by primary position I expect them to play in GB.

Here's what I came up with:

First round.

Trade #21 with Minnesota for 2nd #8, 3rd #8, 3rd #32, and 4th #8.
(Minnesota picked Derek Carr...hehe.)
Still available at #21 were: Dennard, M. Lee, Ealy, Fuller, Ward, and Hageman. PH citizens start calling for my head. I tried to add B J Raji to the deal, but the Vikings balked.

Second round:

Trade #8 to Tennessee for #10 in 2nd and #16 in 3rd. Trading now done for the rest of the draft.
(Tennessee picks Morgan Moses...hehe)
Also available at #8 but not at #10 -- PH citizens continue to simmer about the first trade.
Pick #10: Deone Bucannon, FS
Also available: Ju'Wuan james, Kyle Van Noy, Ryan Shazier, Terrence Brooks, Austin-Seferian-Jenkins.] PH fans turn up the heat of annoyance at me skipping Shazier twice.
Pick #21: Jeremiah Attaochu.
[Also available: DaQuan Jones, Allen Robinson, Jordan Matthews, Lamarcus Joyner, Troy Niklas, Weston Richburg.]
PH still muttering about Dennard and Shazier.

Third round:

Pick #8: Chris Borland, ILB.
Also available: Jackson Jeffcoat, Kareem Martin, Martavis Bryant, Travis Swanson. Demarcus Lawrence, Charles Sims, Bashaud Breeland.
Pick #16: Daniel McCullers, NT
Also available: Keith McGill, Louchiez Purifoy, Travis Swanson, Anthony Johnson
Pick #21: Charles Sims, RB.
Also available: Carlos Hyde, Jaylen Watkins, Purifoy, Cody Latimer.
Pick #32: Rashaad Reynolds, CB.
Also available: Craig Loston, C.J. Fiedorowicz, Jared Abbrederis, Shayne Skov, Keith McGill
Pick #34: Christian Jones, ILB.
Also available: Chris Smith, Fiedorowitz, Bryan Stork, Dion Bailey

Fourth round:

Pick #8: Dri Archer, PR/KR
Also available: Dion Bailey, Skov, Cameron Fleming, Antone Exum, Ryan Grant, Devin Street, Josh Huff.
Pick #21: Nat Berhe, SS.
Also available: Ahmad Dixon, Caraun Reid, Ed Stinson. Anthony Steen, Trai Turner, Preston Brown, Dontae Johnson. Michael Schofield, Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, Marqueston Huff.

Fifth round:
Pick #21: Russell Bodine, OG

Also available: Brent Urban, Charles Leno, James White, David Fales, Kevin Pierre-Louis
Pick #36: Ryan Carrethers, DT.
Also available: Max Bullough, Xavier Grimble, Colt Lyerla, Kevin Norwood, Christian Bryant, Tyler Starr, Brandon Thomas, Ross Cockrell

Sixth round:
Pick #21: Matt Hazel, WR

Also available: Devon Kennard, James White, Rajion Neal, Seantrel Henderson, Jonathan Newsome, Marcel Jensen, Matt Armstrong, Trey Millard.

Seventh round:
Pick #21: Aaron Colvin, CB.

Also available: Marcus Williams, De'Anthony Thomas, John Brown, John Urschel, Justin Britt, Raijon Neal, Tajh Boyd, Derrell Johnson.




Originally Posted by: Wade 



Yeah, that's a lot of work. I just think we miss out on a lot of top players. I doubt Bucannon falls that far.
wpr
  • wpr
  • Preferred Member
10 years ago
Hey you peeked. That is mine too.
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packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : the total and percentage are the same as the previous weeks
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beast (18-Nov) : Dennis Green "They are what we thought they were, and we let them off the hook!"
Martha Careful (17-Nov) : comment of the day Z2Cool "Bears better than we want to admit. Packers worse than we think. It's facts."
Mucky Tundra (17-Nov) : my worst case scenario: Bears fix their oline and get a coach like Johnson from the Lions and his scheme
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beast (17-Nov) : How so? (I didn't watch)
Zero2Cool (17-Nov) : Badgers got hosed vs Oregon
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