Week 15 Power Rankings:

1. New York Giants 8.65
2. Pittsburgh Steelers 8.31
3. Tennessee Titans 8.29
4. Baltimore Ravens 8.00
5. Philadelphia Eagles 7.18
6. Carolina Panthers 5.38
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4.33
8. Atlanta Falcons 4.09
9. Minnesota Vikings 3.88
10. Dallas Cowboys 3.29
11. Indianapolis Colts 3.28
12. Green Bay Packers 3.21
13. New Orleans Saints 2.92
14. New York Jets 2.53
15. San Diego Chargers 2.15
16. Chicago Bears 1.76
17. New England Patriots 1.64
18. Arizona Cardinals 0.71
19. Miami Dolphins -0.47
20. Houston Texans -0.95
21. Washington Redskins -2.31
22. Cleveland Browns -2.33
23. Jacksonville Jaguars -2.51
24. Buffalo Bills -2.86
25. San Francisco 49ers -3.97
26. Denver Broncos -4.66
27. Seattle Seahawks -6.47
28. Kansas City Chiefs -8.53
29. Cincinnati Bengals -8.79
30. Oakland Raiders -9.75
31. Detroit Lions -12.43
32. St. Louis Rams -14.90

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Week 16 Power Rankings:

1. Tennessee Titans 9.18
2. New York Giants 8.87
3. Baltimore Ravens 8.77
4. Pittsburgh Steelers 7.85
5. Philadelphia Eagles 6.25
6. Carolina Panthers 5.16
7. Atlanta Falcons 4.58
8. New England Patriots 4.31
9. New Orleans Saints 3.98
10. San Diego Chargers 3.80
11. Indianapolis Colts 3.50
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3.28
13. Dallas Cowboys 3.00
14. Minnesota Vikings 2.95
15. Green Bay Packers 2.77
16. New York Jets 1.96
17. Chicago Bears 1.85
18. Miami Dolphins -0.10
19. Washington Redskins -1.24
20. Arizona Cardinals -1.70
21. Buffalo Bills -2.02
22. Houston Texans -2.21
23. Jacksonville Jaguars -2.75
24. Cleveland Browns -3.72
25. Denver Broncos -4.12
26. San Francisco 49ers -4.63
27. Seattle Seahawks -5.18
28. Kansas City Chiefs -7.83
29. Cincinnati Bengals -7.99
30. Oakland Raiders -8.06
31. Detroit Lions -13.74
32. St. Louis Rams -14.12

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Week 17 Power Rankings:

1. Baltimore Ravens 9.71
2. Pittsburgh Steelers 9.24
3. New York Giants 8.71
4. Philadelphia Eagles 8.46
5. Tennessee Titans 7.51
6. Indianapolis Colts 5.53
7. San Diego Chargers 5.51
8. New England Patriots 5.22
9. Carolina Panthers 5.12
10. New Orleans Saints 3.71
11. Atlanta Falcons 3.53
12. Minnesota Vikings 3.36
13. Green Bay Packers 1.94
14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1.86
15. New York Jets 1.79
16. Dallas Cowboys 1.18
17. Chicago Bears 1.17
18. Miami Dolphins 0.82
19. Arizona Cardinals -1.08
20. Washington Redskins -1.27
21. Houston Texans -1.35
22. Buffalo Bills -2.34
23. Jacksonville Jaguars -3.17
24. San Francisco 49ers -4.02
25. Cleveland Browns -4.72
26. Seattle Seahawks -5.42
27. Denver Broncos -5.51
28. Oakland Raiders -6.99
29. Cincinnati Bengals -7.26
30. Kansas City Chiefs -8.54
31. St. Louis Rams -13.21
32. Detroit Lions -13.45

Final Offensive Rankings:
1. New Orleans Saints 6.42
2. New York Giants 6.16
3. New England Patriots 5.39
4. Arizona Cardinals 5.05
5. San Diego Chargers 4.39
6. Houston Texans 3.54
7. Philadelphia Eagles 3.40
8. Carolina Panthers 3.40
9. Tennessee Titans 2.89
10. Baltimore Ravens 2.14
11. Green Bay Packers 2.09
12. Pittsburgh Steelers 1.89
13. Atlanta Falcons 1.85
14. Dallas Cowboys 1.73
15. Indianapolis Colts 1.19
16. Denver Broncos 0.86
17. Chicago Bears 0.41
18. Minnesota Vikings 0.04
19. New York Jets -0.40
20. Miami Dolphins -1.34
21. Jacksonville Jaguars -1.91
22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.05
23. San Francisco 49ers -2.05
24. Buffalo Bills -2.36
25. Seattle Seahawks -3.55
26. Washington Redskins -3.64
27. Kansas City Chiefs -4.15
28. Oakland Raiders -4.80
29. Detroit Lions -4.95
30. Cleveland Browns -5.92
31. Cincinnati Bengals -6.43
32. St. Louis Rams -8.25

Final Defensive Rankings:
1. Baltimore Ravens 7.56
2. Pittsburgh Steelers 7.35
3. Philadelphia Eagles 5.06
4. Tennessee Titans 4.62
5. Indianapolis Colts 4.35
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3.90
7. Minnesota Vikings 3.32
8. New York Giants 2.54
9. Washington Redskins 2.37
10. New York Jets 2.19
11. Miami Dolphins 2.16
12. Carolina Panthers 1.73
13. Atlanta Falcons 1.68
14. Cleveland Browns 1.21
15. San Diego Chargers 1.12
16. Chicago Bears 0.76
17. Buffalo Bills 0.02
18. Green Bay Packers -0.15
19. New England Patriots -0.17
20. Dallas Cowboys -0.55
21. Cincinnati Bengals -0.83
22. Jacksonville Jaguars -1.26
23. Seattle Seahawks -1.87
24. San Francisco 49ers -1.97
25. Oakland Raiders -2.19
26. New Orleans Saints -2.71
27. Kansas City Chiefs -4.39
28. Houston Texans -4.89
29. St. Louis Rams -4.96
30. Arizona Cardinals -6.14
31. Denver Broncos -6.36
32. Detroit Lions -8.51

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Wow. With those rankings, it's hard to believe the Packers had a 6-10 season. Just goes to show you the value of little edges.

"Defense wins championships"? According to this power ranking, the Cardinals were ranked 30th in defense (and I know they were dead last in running back production)!

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Now, the modified final Week 17 results after capping the effect one game can have to 15 points (this should take care of the outliers). In parentheses are their final O/D rankings based on points alone from nfl.com - so you can see how much it differs.

Week 17 Power Rankings:
1. Baltimore Ravens 8.98
2. Pittsburgh Steelers 8.64
3. New York Giants 8.18
4. Tennessee Titans 7.45
5. Philadelphia Eagles 6.83
6. Carolina Panthers 4.91
7. Indianapolis Colts 4.87
8. San Diego Chargers 4.71
9. Minnesota Vikings 3.32
10. New England Patriots 3.31
11. Atlanta Falcons 2.81
12. New Orleans Saints 2.53
13. Green Bay Packers 1.63
14. New York Jets 1.56
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1.54
16. Dallas Cowboys 1.42
17. Chicago Bears 1.09
18. Miami Dolphins 0.92
19. Arizona Cardinals 0.44
20. Houston Texans -0.79
21. Washington Redskins -1.56
22. Buffalo Bills -2.05
23. Jacksonville Jaguars -3.17
24. Cleveland Browns -3.67
25. San Francisco 49ers -4.11
26. Denver Broncos -4.72
27. Oakland Raiders -5.37
28. Seattle Seahawks -5.43
29. Cincinnati Bengals -6.92
30. Kansas City Chiefs -7.28
31. St. Louis Rams -11.90
32. Detroit Lions -12.73

Final Offensive Rankings:
1. New York Giants 5.75 (T3rd)
2. New Orleans Saints 5.24 (1st)
3. Arizona Cardinals 4.62 (T3rd)
4. New England Patriots 3.78 (8th)
5. Houston Texans 3.54 (17th)
6. San Diego Chargers 3.49 (2nd)
7. Carolina Panthers 3.03 (7th)
8. Tennessee Titans 2.89 (T14th)
9. Philadelphia Eagles 2.87 (6th)
10. Baltimore Ravens 2.09 (11th)
11. Green Bay Packers 2.09 (5th)
12. Dallas Cowboys 1.89 (18th)
13. Pittsburgh Steelers 1.71 (20th)
14. Indianapolis Colts 1.19 (13th)
15. Atlanta Falcons 1.18 (10th)
16. Denver Broncos 0.35 (16th)
T17. Minnesota Vikings 0.33 (12th)
T17. Chicago Bears 0.33 (T14th)
19. New Yorks Jets -0.39 (9th)
20. Miami Dolphins -1.57 (21st)
21. Jacksonville Jaguars -1.91 (24th)
22. San Francisco 49ers -1.94 (22nd)
23. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.05 (19th)
24. Buffalo Bills -2.27 (23rd)
25. Seattle Seahawks -3.55 (25th)
26. Washington Redskins -3.60 (28th)
27. Kansas City Chiefs -3.79 (26th)
28. Oakland Raiders -4.00 (29th)
29. Cleveland Browns -4.54 (T30th)
30. Detroit Lions -4.64 (27th)
31. Cincinatti Bengals -6.04 (32nd)
32. St. Louis Rams -7.34 (T30th)

Final Defensive Rankings:
1. Pittsburgh Steelers 6.93 (1st)
2. Baltimore Ravens 6.89 (3rd)
3. Tennessee Titans 4.56 (2nd)
4. Philadelphia Eagles 3.96 (4th)
5. Indianapolis Colts 3.68 (7th)
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3.59 (10th)
7. Minnesota Vikings 3.00 (13th)
8. San Diego Chargers 1.22 (15th)
9. New York Giants 2.43 (5th)
10. Washington Redskins 2.04 (6th)
11. New York Jets 1.95 (18th)
12. Carolina Panthers 1.88 (12th)
13. Atlanta Falcons 1.63 (11th)
14. San Diego Chargers 1.22 (15th)
15. Cleveland Browns 0.87 (T16th)
16. Chicago Bears 0.76 (T16th)
17. Buffalo Bills 0.22 (14th)
18. Green Bay Packers -0.46 (22nd)
19. Dallas Cowboys -0.47 (20th)
20. New England Patriots -0.48 (8th)
21. Cincinnati Bengals -0.88 (19th)
22. Jacksonville Jaguars -1.26 (21st)
23. Oakland Raiders -1.38 (24th)
24. Seattle Seahawks -1.88 (25th)
25. San Francisco 49ers -2.17 (23rd)
26. New Orleans Saints -2.71 (26th)
27. Kansas City Chiefs -3.50 (29th)
28. Arizona Cardinals -4.18 (28th)
29. Houston Texans -4.33 (27th)
30. St. Louis Rams -4.55 (31st)
31. Denver Broncos -5.07 (30th)
32. Detroit Lions -8.08 (32nd)

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They snuck in to the playoffs and then their defense came alive. They are definitely an anomaly. I could carry this forward into the playoffs but don't want to because that would mean increasing the size of my excel table by 150%, or making it ugly. Either way... don't want to do it.

Some interesting things. Look at Chicago's defense - definitely not the powerhouse it used to be (as we all know). Look at NE's offense - shows how good they are to finish 3rd/4th without Brady.

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I'd be curious to see your formula. Or is it proprietary?

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Well I'm not gonna send you the table. :lol: But I'll explain it as best I can.

I started off with a 32x32 grid where I entered points for games played between the teams in the appropriate cells. Later on I had to add to this to adjust for the two divisional games per season (that was a pain in the ass). I adjust the scores by subtracting 7 points from each team's score if there was a defensive TD scored (I figure that's worth -7 points for the O giving it up, and -7 points allowed for the D scoring it). Same goes for safeties and -2 points.

At the end of each column I have average points for, and at the end of each row I have average points against.

Then I have another smaller table with columns for each week and 32 rows (1 per team) for offense and 32 rows (1 per team) for defense.

For each cell in this second table, I take, for example, the points scored by Green Bay in Week 10, and subtract from those points the average points given up by their opponent. For defense, I take the points Green Bay gave up, and subtract from that the average points scored by their opponent. So every week I fill up a column with the adjusted points scored and points allowed by each team.

I simply take the average of these for their offensive and defensive scores, and combine the two for their overall ranking score.

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I think if you could account for individual team strengths the accuracy of the computation would be a little more effective.

Take our friends to the West in purple.. they can neutralize a decent running offense.. but can defend or pass the ball a lick.. straight scoring formula's don't account for when they face a team with a strong running defense and effective passing attack..

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So like, a "good" passing and "good" rushing game would trump a less balanced team with a "very good" passing game and "ok" running game? Hmm... sounds interesting. I think you should devise something to measure it!

I just went on the assumption that scoring is the ultimate measurable of a team's strength, or alternatively, their ability to shut down scoring. I figure the details will work themselves out over a 17 week season.

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