Coming into this season, Aaron Rodgers had started 52 games including the playoffs. In 26 of those games, the Packers had allowed fewer than 20 points; they went 23-3 (.884) in those games. In the remaining 26 games, the Packers had allowed at least 20 points and only gone 8-18 (.308). Their winning percentage when allowing 20+ points was 24th in the league since Rodgers took over. Ironically, they significantly improved that winning percentage this year, going 9-0 in games in which they allowed 20+ points compared to 6-1 when they allowed fewer than 20 points. That means that since Rodgers took over, the Packers are now 30-4 (.882) when allowing fewer than 20 points compared to 35-19 (.648) when allowing more than 20 points.
This team also improved its winning percentage in games decided by 6 points or less. Coming into this season, the Packers were 7-15 (.318) since 2008 in such games. That put them 30th in the league, ahead of only the Lions and Rams. This year they went 3-1 in such games, improving their overall record to 10-16 (.384) since 2008.
Coming into this season, the Packers had lost 6 consecutive overtime games dating back to the 2007 NFC Championship game, making Mike McCarthy the first coach ever to lose 6 OT games with a single team and Aaron Rodgers the only quarterback ever to lose 5 straight OT games with the same team. That streak continued this season, with the Packers falling to the Giants in OT, bringing McCarthy's streak to 7 and Rodgers' to 6. Both streaks are unprecedented.
Incidentally, the Packers have gone to overtime in 5 of their last 11 playoff games. Needless to say, they've lost every single one of those games. I wonder if that has ever happened before.
Coming into this season, the Packers were 3-16 (.157) in 4th-quarter comeback situations with Rodgers at the helm. After losing to the Chiefs, first beating and now losing to the Giants, they are 3-18 (.143) in such situations. (By the way, the average deficit overcome in the 3 comebacks was a mere 1.33 points.) That's not something that inspires either fan or team confidence when the game is on the line and the team is down by a field goal or touchdown. To its credit, the offense under Rodgers has been decent at coming from behind to tie a game in the 4th quarter, but they've been downright lousy at pulling off the win.
Another interesting fact is that in the past 46 games, the Packers have never lost by more than 6 points. In other words, they have been competitive in every game. They have had a chance to win every game they have played.
The point is that with Aaron Rodgers at the helm -- and really, ever since Mike McCarthy took over -- the Packers have been great at getting out to early leads and maintaining those leads. The problem is that this team pretty much
has to get out in front early, because in close games they almost always lose and coming from behind is almost out of the question for them. This makes for a lot of exciting football, and it's sure been a lot of fun to watch, but it also underscores just how vulnerable this team was without a defense.
As Scott Kacsmar
wrote before the season began:
You could say Green Bay is a young team that’s just getting started. A front-runner in training, that may have figured it out beautifully for the playoff run last year.
They jumped out 14-0 on Philadelphia, hung on, then ended it by picking off Vick in the end zone. In Atlanta they put on an offensive performance that Montana and Young would relish, and blew out the Falcons 48-21. They jumped out 14-0 on Chicago, then put a wrap on it with a pick six of Caleb Hanie, and another pick later. They jumped up 14-0 early on Pittsburgh, thanks again to a pick six, and then finally stopped Roethlisberger on the last drive to win the Super Bowl.
Is it a repeatable strategy? Probably not, as that was a heavy reliance on key interceptions. But if they can figure it out and get more team performances like the Atlanta game, then this could be the league’s next dynasty.
You don’t have to win close games if you can consistently blow the opponent out. If Green Bay keeps their core together, finds eventual replacements for Donald Driver and Charles Woodson, then they could keep on dominating teams for the next several years behind the guidance of Rodgers. That’s the kind of team they’ve tried to build. That’s their style.
That’s front-running.
Scott Kacsmar wrote:
That trend continued this year, with the defense having to pull out a number of late interceptions to ice away games that, based on the number of point scored by the offense, should have been decided early. And of course, that strategy failed them when it really counted.
Hopefully, the Packers will be able to rectify some of those problems in the offseason. I enjoy watching the front running, but I also like to know that when the chips are down, my team will have a chance to pull out a
dogfight . I don't like gambling on the odds of a last-second interception to pull out the victory.