Stevetarded
13 years ago
This year Aaron Rodgers has a higher completion % on 20+ yard throws than all but 3 other QBs have on all of their throws.
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Zero2Cool
13 years ago
Source 

The top 10 quarterback passer ratings dating back to 1943, only 3 of the top 10 are from more than a 12 seasons ago. The rest are within a decade to dozen years ago. That's pretty crazy.
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Dexter_Sinister
13 years ago

Source 

The top 10 quarterback passer ratings dating back to 1943, only 3 of the top 10 are from more than a 12 seasons ago. The rest are within a decade to dozen years ago. That's pretty crazy.

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 


Favre played in both the 90s and the '00s. If there was a big jump in how easy it is to throw, his performance is where it would have been most noticeable.

His highest rated year was '09 where he had the 107. Taking into account his second best year was a 99 back in '95 when it was about 5 points easier to throw. He would have had a year that was really only about 4 points higher than his best.

Both the Packers and the Vikings went 13-3 those years. In '09 you can see why he had a good year. Besides playing within the scheme, he had a weak schedule, lucky drops by DBs that would have ended games badly and Rice pulling in jump balls in triple coverage.

The changes would be most noticeable for a player who played in both decades.

It has been a steady progression from 1940 to today and the passer rating has increased from 39.6 to its highest last year of 86. There has not been any major jumps, it has been relatively steady. So the highest rating should be most recent. Even with Rodgers having a 129 rating this year, the average is actually down from last year. The average keeps increasing so the high mark keeps increasing.

There are still QBs that are farther above average than anybody today. Even better than Rodgers. Steve Young, Otto Grahm, Sammy Baugh and the best ever Sid Luckman had relativly better career ratings than Rodgers has so far if you account for the increase in average passer rating. Roger Stauback was just passed by Rodgres and it took a 129 season to get him there. Rodgers in the only one active now that is in the top 10. Not even Brady or Manning crack that. They are top 20.

The change in the last 20 years is nothing compared to the change since Sid Luckman played.

Just because people don't like that Favre is so far back, doesn't mean they system is flawed. Maybe it is just Favre was flawed. He had some pretty terrible years. '10, '08, '06, '05, '00 '99 and 93 were all pretty bad. Well below average. Mostly rated in the 70s.

I want to go out like my Grandpa did. Peacefully in his sleep.
Not screaming in terror like his passengers.
Nonstopdrivel
13 years ago
I like this comment I found on PFR :

Aaron Rodgers is the all-time leader in QB rating but is tied with JaMarcus Russell and Tarvaris Jackson in 4th quarter comebacks. He's only 1 ahead of Andy Dalton!

I guess it's hard to have a 4th Quarter comeback when your team has played 12 straight games without once trailing in the 4th quarter.



That comment is a bit outdated, of course; the Packers have now played 14 straight game without trailing in the 4th quarter.

As I have said so many times before, I would far rather have a quarterback (or defense or . . .) whose play was so dominant in the first three quarters that he never had to be bailed out with a 4th quarter comeback than one whose resume is littered with last-minute desperation drives because the team was always playing from behind in the first three quarters.

You can have your John Elway with all his glorious two-minute drills if you want. I'll take Aaron Rodgers any day.

In fairness, I will point out that Rodgers is 3-16 in comeback situations, so it's a good thing he is usually playing from ahead. [grin1]
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Zero2Cool
13 years ago

Favre played in both the 90s and the '00s. If there was a big jump in how easy it is to throw, his performance is where it would have been most noticeable.

Originally Posted by: Dexter_Sinister 



As I said earlier...

I don't think using the average of everyone is a good barometer. No rule is going to make a bad quarterback good. If you can not hit slant, read a defense, go through progressions, hit a wide open target, etc ... there is no rule that is going help you.

I believe the rules of the NFL now make good quarterbacks put up great numbers.

I think taking the top five of each decade would be a better barometer.

'90?
'00?
'10?


Does what I am saying make sense?

I think Brady, Brees, Rodgers, and Manning still put up good numbers if they played in the '90s, but not gaudy numbers like they are now. Definitely still good enough to have strong consideration for the hall of fame.

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 



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Dexter_Sinister
13 years ago

I like this comment I found on PFR :



That comment is a bit outdated, of course; the Packers have now played 14 straight game without trailing in the 4th quarter.

As I have said so many times before, I would far rather have a quarterback (or defense or . . .) whose play was so dominant in the first three quarters that he never had to be bailed out with a 4th quarter comeback than one whose resume is littered with last-minute desperation drives because the team was always playing from behind in the first three quarters.

You can have your John Elway with all his glorious two-minute drills if you want. I'll take Aaron Rodgers any day.

In fairness, I will point out that Rodgers is 3-16 in comeback situations, so it's a good thing he is usually playing from ahead. [grin1]

Originally Posted by: Nonstopdrivel 


The 5 comebacks he had in '08 where the D and ST blew his lead or missed the FG would shift that up to .500 which is not best ever but fairly respectable. Roethlisberger is somewhere around .500 too. Hanging those losses on Rodgers is wrong.

Fave had a lot of comebacks, but his success rate is fairly low. At a little over .300.
I want to go out like my Grandpa did. Peacefully in his sleep.
Not screaming in terror like his passengers.
Dexter_Sinister
13 years ago

As I said earlier...

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 


I am on a tablet right now so I can't build a spread sheet easily.

Sid Luckman and Otto Graham had single season ratings that rank in the top 15 all time. Without adjustment for average. Joe Montana, Steve Young, Roger Staubach and several others have had very highly rated years.

If you adjust for average of when they played, Rodgers, Brady, Brees and Manning have not put up such gaudy numbers.

Rodgers year, if he finished at the pace he is on, wouldn't be the best year ever once you made the adjustment.

I will have to put that together sometime. But I doubt that Favre fans will like it.


I want to go out like my Grandpa did. Peacefully in his sleep.
Not screaming in terror like his passengers.
buckeyepackfan
13 years ago
🤔 ................[aiee]
I was addicted to The Hokey Pokey, but I turned myself around!
Dexter_Sinister
13 years ago
There is also a difference between putting up lots of numbers and having a high rating. It is more about efficiency than about lots of yards. Probably because when the first developed the rating they found that lots of yard do not equal wins. Completion %, Yards per attempt, TD% and INT % mean a lot more. That is why Sid Luckman can have a single season rating over 100 back in the 40s. It is also why Marino's 5000 isn't the highest rated single season ever.

Yes, they are putting up more yards passing now. But they still have to be efficient passing the ball. That is why the average rating isn't 4 times higher even though they are putting up 4 times as many yards.
I want to go out like my Grandpa did. Peacefully in his sleep.
Not screaming in terror like his passengers.
mi_keys
13 years ago

If you adjust for average of when they played, Rodgers, Brady, Brees and Manning have not put up such gaudy numbers.

Originally Posted by: Dexter_Sinister 



It depends on how you do your adjustments. If you adjust it based on standard deviations away from the median, Rodgers this year is ahead of Sid Luckman's by a wide margin. Rodgers' QB rating is 3.6 standard deviations above the median this year. I've gone back over the last 10 years as well as looking at '43 and '45 and this is by far the highest.

In 1943 there were only 6 players that had more than 100 attempts so it's hard to get a good idea of what a distribution of quarterbacks would be. The third best qb rating that year was from Tony Canadeo (51.0), who was more of a running back than a quarterback. Anyway, most cutoff points for attempts would put Sid Luckman at only 2.1 standard deviations above the median (best would be 2.3 if you cut it off at I think 75 attempts). By the way, Lou Brock of the Packers had a qb rating of 108.7 in 1943 (albeit on only 22 attempts).

Sid Luckman and Sammy Baugh were great because they essentially didn't have any peers. It does make it hard to compare them to modern day quarterbacks though because there really isn't much from their era to compare them to.
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