wpr
  • wpr
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14 years ago

But opportunities for interceptions have actually declined a bit even though teams pass more, because for the most part the passes are less risky. Also, the rules are not nearly as favorable for DB's as they used to be. They are often penalized for even the slightest contact.

Take a look at the career leaders in interceptions. There are lots of older players here, even though they had shorter seasons back then:

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/def_int_career.htm 

This suggests that Charles Woodson's high interception total is not a byproduct of his era.

Originally Posted by: Greg C. 




I will give you partial credit. I thought there would be more on the list than there is. However there is a significant number of the top players on the list who has played recently. 9 of the top 24 37.5% played into the year 2000 or later.

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Greg C.
14 years ago

I will give you partial credit. I thought there would be more on the list than there is. However there is a significant number of the top players on the list who has played recently. 9 of the top 24 37.5% played into the year 2000 or later.

Originally Posted by: wpr 



By selecting the top 24, you've obtained the highest percentage you possibly could for the more recent players. Looking at it more objectively, there are 2 of the top 10 (20%), 5 of the top 20 (25%), 9 of the top 30 (30%), and 14 of the top 50 (28%).

Another factor to keep in mind is that there are way more teams now than there were back then, which means more players, which tends to result in more statistical extremes. Yet this list is not heavily weighted toward the more recent players.

The bottom line is that Woodson's career interception total stands out just as much among his contemporaries as it does among all DB's who have ever played in the league, and he's not done yet.
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wpr
  • wpr
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14 years ago

By selecting the top 24, you've obtained the highest percentage you possibly could for the more recent players. Looking at it more objectively, there are 2 of the top 10 (20%), 5 of the top 20 (25%), 9 of the top 30 (30%), and 14 of the top 50 (28%).

Another factor to keep in mind is that there are way more teams now than there were back then, which means more players, which tends to result in more statistical extremes. Yet this list is not heavily weighted toward the more recent players.

The bottom line is that Woodson's career interception total stands out just as much among his contemporaries as it does among all DB's who have ever played in the league, and he's not done yet.

Originally Posted by: Greg C. 



Greg I am not trying to skew the stats (too much). I cut off at the top 24 for 2 reasons. First there was a large group right behind it and top 25 makes more sense than top 30. Second to illustrate that there is some bias towards the pass over the run these days. It may not be large but it is certainly there.

In addition when you consider that the NFL has been around for as long as it has it is significant when you see 20% of the players coming from one decade. But that is hard to quantify. As many of the players played in parts of 2 or even 3 decades. I forget who it is but one of the players in my "2000 and beyond list" only played one year of his career in the 21st Century.
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Greg C.
14 years ago
You've mentioned a couple of times now that teams pass more now than they used to. Everybody knows that. But as I've already explained, more passes do not necessarily lead to more interception opportunities. That's because a much higher percentage of passes nowadays are short and safe, and the rules favor the offensive players.

Here are some more stats for you. These are the NFL interception leaders every year since 1940. If there is an upward trend here anytime after 1947, I sure don't see it, and that's in spite of the fact that the length of the season has increased from 12 to 14 to 16 games:

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/def_int_year_by_year.htm 
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wpr
  • wpr
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14 years ago

You've mentioned a couple of times now that teams pass more now than they used to. Everybody knows that. But as I've already explained, more passes do not necessarily lead to more interception opportunities. That's because a much higher percentage of passes nowadays are short and safe, and the rules favor the offensive players.

Originally Posted by: Greg C. 




agreed. no argument here. Without looking at the numbers I thought it would be closer to 40%.

The only point I was trying to make at this time is that with 20% or 30% of the players on the list have played since 2000 that it is higher than the .11% would generate with the 90 years that the NFL has been around. If you don't feel it is a significant difference I am fine with that. If you don't think we should count the passes from the 20's and 30's even the 40's I don't mind that either.
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Greg C.
14 years ago

agreed. no argument here. Without looking at the numbers I thought it would be closer to 40%.

The only point I was trying to make at this time is that with 20% or 30% of the players on the list have played since 2000 that it is higher than the .11% would generate with the 90 years that the NFL has been around. If you don't feel it is a significant difference I am fine with that. If you don't think we should count the passes from the 20's and 30's even the 40's I don't mind that either.

Originally Posted by: wpr 



Well, I would think it goes without saying that we throw out the 20s, 30s, and 40s, since they were basically playing rugby until after World War II. How about we just tally up the number of players on the list from each decade? In order to avoid shortchanging the 2000's, we'll just include players whose careers ENDED in a particular decade. We'll go with the top 49, so we can include Woodson yet avoid that messy five-way tie at #50:

1950s--2
1960s--5
1970s--15
1980s--8
1990s--4
2000s--10

Note: I've thrown out the four guys who are still playing, as their careers are going to end in the 2010s.

Since these are the end dates of careers, it looks like the late 60s and early 70s were the golden age of interceptions, tailing off in the late 70s and 80s, but with a smaller spike in the late 90s and 2000s. That strengthens your point, although not to a huge extent.

A better gauge would be interception totals rather than just interception leaders, but I don't know how to dig that up, and I only have so much time.
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zombieslayer
14 years ago
Woodson's in. Too many stats to overlook:
7 Pro Bowls, 2 All Pros
47 INTs, 10 TDs from INTs, 833 INT return yards
27 Forced Fumbles, 10 Fumbles Recovered, 1 TD from a fumble recovery
13.5 sacks

So 11 total defensive TDs.

Let's not forget that he led the Packers in solo tackles in a year we won the SB. Plus, a DPOY the year before.

There's almost no way he doesn't go in now. Would love to see back-to-back SB wins to seal the deal though. Plus, didn't he record an INT in the SB (not ours, but with the Raiders)?

(Just confirmed - yes he did. He got the Raiders' only INT in that game).
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