macbob
  • macbob
  • Veteran Member Topic Starter
13 years ago
Interesting position-by-position analysis. In Silva's opinion, Packers have an edge in QB, WR/TE (he combines them), OL, DL, DB, K, P, and PR.

While the Steelers have the edge in RB, LB, KR, and coaching.

Some of the areas surprised me (OL, PR), but reading Silva's analysis I can understand how he came up with his assessment. Overall, the Packers came out very well in the analysis.

There's a slide show at the link, if you want pictures (they show a player from each team as they are talking the position), but I will post the text below.

http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/41374987/ns/sports-super_bowl_xlv/displaymode/1247/beginSlide/1/ 

Quarterback
Packers: Aaron Rodgers
Steelers: Ben Roethlisberger
Green Bay: The QB with the top all-around skill set regardless of conference, Rodgers has compiled a 23:5 touchdown-to-turnover ratio in his last 11 games. His 13:3 career postseason ratio is similarly dominant. In this year's playoffs, Rodgers has engineered three straight road wins by a combined score of 90 to 51. If we're strictly talking quarterback play -- not Super Bowl wins and "intangibles" -- Rodgers gets the edge.

Pittsburgh: Big Ben enters his third Super Bowl with one loss since mid-November and a 10-2 lifetime playoff record. He has three INTs compared to 13 all-purpose TDs in the last 10 weeks. What he lacks in flashy stats he makes up for in toughness, aggressiveness, and wins. He has a difficult matchup, though. The Packers' defense ranked No. 5 against the pass during the regular season and has a league-high 30 interceptions through 19 games.
Edge: Packers

Running back
Green Bay:James Starks
Pittsburgh: Rashard Mendenhall
Green Bay: A sixth-round rookie and regular season non-factor, Starks has emerged as the NFL's playoff rushing leader. But he's a middling talent. Starks lacks big-play ability (just one run of 20-plus yards on 70 attempts), and is averaging 3.76 yards per postseason carry. While Starks is capable of killing the clock and picking up oncoming rushers, he isn't a difference maker. Starks is also pulled in favor of Brandon Jackson on all passing downs.

Pittsburgh: Here's is an area in which Pittsburgh has a clear advantage. An every-down back unlike Starks, Mendenhall exploded for 121 yards on 27 carries (4.48 average) against the Jets' third-ranked run defense in the divisional round. Whereas the Packers' ground game won't have room to run against Pittsburgh's impenetrable front seven, Mendenhall has the potential to be a deciding factor.
Edge: Steelers

Receiver/tight end
Pittsburgh: Mike Wallace
Green Bay: Greg Jennings
Green Bay: No NFL team boasts a more formidable pass catching corps than the Pack, which has produced four wideouts with at least 565 yards. The group is headlined by deep threat Jennings, who ranked fourth in the league in regular-season receiving yardage and averaged eight catches for 115.5 yards in playoff wins over Atlanta and Chicago. "Backups" James Jones and Jordy Nelson have come up big lately. Trusty slot receiver Donald Driver rounds out the unit.

Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh's wideout corps has received a major late-season boost from explosive rookies Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders. Their emergence has been timely with Hines Ward, 34, slowing down. Ward is still is a devastating downfield run blocker, but hasn't topped 45 receiving yards in seven weeks. Wallace is arguably the most dangerous receiver in the Super Bowl and is the Steelers' deep ball specialist. Tight end Heath Miller is a reliable third-down target.
Edge: Packers

Offensive line
Green Bay: Chad Clifton
Pittsburgh: Jonathan Scott
Green Bay: The Packers are potent in the front five, executing a zone-blocking running scheme and holding top pass rushers Julius Peppers and Trent Cole sack-less in the playoffs. John Abraham did get to Aaron Rodgers once, but that was Abraham's lone tackle of the divisional round. Left tackle Chad Clifton, 34, still gets it done and rookie right tackle Bryan Bulaga is capable of battling LaMarr Woodley to a draw. Right guard Josh Sitton is Green Bay's finest run blocker.

Pittsburgh: This is Pittsburgh's glaring weakness, particularly if rookie Pro Bowler Maurkice Pouncey doesn't play. The center's status appears doubtful due to a high sprain and broken bone in his left ankle. If Pouncey is inactive, the Steelers will start four projected backups against defensive player of the year candidate Clay Matthews and company. It's a good thing Roethlisberger is powerful enough to shake off hits, because he's going to take plenty of them.
Edge: Packers

Defensive line
Green Bay: B.J. Raji
Pittsburgh:Casey Hampton
Green Bay: The Packers and Steelers run 3-4 defenses with three down linemen on first and second down, and four to five rushers in three-point stances during passing situations. The front three is a strength on both sides. Nose tackle B.J. Raji is on an epic tear with 16 tackles, five sacks, five pass breakups, and an interception return for a touchdown in his last eight games. Left end Ryan Pickett is a space eater, while right end Cullen Jenkins is an underrated pass rusher.

Pittsburgh: The Steelers won't have Pro Bowler Aaron Smith, but Ziggy Hood has solidified the left end position. Pittsburgh has allowed a league-low 62.1 rushing yards per game since Hood took over, and the 2009 first-round pick has supplemented the pass rush with four sacks in his last six games. Still going strong at age 33, five-time Pro Bowl nose tackle Casey Hampton is a true clogger on run downs. Right end Brett Keisel can collapse the pocket.
Edge: Packers

Linebacker
Green Bay: Clay Matthews
Pittsburgh: James Harrison
Green Bay: The Packers' linebackers aren't as good as Pittsburgh's -- no one's are -- but theyre awfully close. Headlined by relentless edge rusher Clay Matthews (17 sacks), the second level of Green Bay's defense is effective both at bringing heat and defending the run. Desmond Bishop is a thumper inside. One mismatch that could prove advantageous to Pittsburgh is if fellow middle 'backer A.J. Hawk gets caught in man coverage against Heath Miller or Hines Ward. Hawk doesn't move well in space.

Pittsburgh: Harrison has 14 tackles and three sacks in the postseason, which is pretty impressive when you consider the No. 2-seed Steelers have only played two playoff games. Inside linebackers Lawrence Timmons and James Farrior have chipped in 32 more stops, and bookend pass rusher LaMarr Woodley has two quarterback takedowns. Ask any NFL talent evaluator which team's linebacker corps is the best, and it's a safe bet that over 25 would say Pittsburgh.
Edge: Steelers

Secondary
Pittsburgh: Troy Polamalu
Green Bay: Tramon Williams
Green Bay: The Packers have held No. 1 receivers DeSean Jackson, Roddy White, and Johnny Knox to an unremarkable average of 53.3 yards in three playoff games. They've combined for one touchdown -- by White in divisional-round garbage time. A big reason for that is shutdown corner Tramon Williams. Putting it all together, Green Bay DBs have picked off five postseason passes. There's no liability in this secondary with Sam Shields developing into a ball-hawking complement to Williams, slot corner Charles Woodson, and sticky-fingered safety Nick Collins.

Pittsburgh: Polamalu is an All-Pro, but Pittsburgh's secondary is vulnerable otherwise. The cornerbacks rely heavily on front-seven pressure to make their jobs easier, because most of them can't cover. Nos. 2 and 3 corners Bryant McFadden and William Gay are particular liabilities. The Super Bowl will be played indoors, where Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is historically deadly. In 10 career dome games, he averages 265 passing yards with an 18:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio and 106.4 passer rating. Gay and McFadden must come up with the games of their lives.
Edge: Packers

Kicker
Packers: Mason Crosby
Pittsburgh: Shaun Suisham
Green Bay: Including the playoffs, Crosby is 24-of-31 on field goal tries with five touchbacks. The strong-legged kicker was perfect indoors during the regular season. Though it's probably slight, Green Bay has the edge here because the Steelers trot out a midseason street free agent at kicker.

Pittsburgh: Suisham went 14-for-15 on regular season field goals after replacing Jeff Reed in Week 11, but is 5-of-9 lifetime in the playoffs. He missed a 43-yard try at the end of the first half of Pittsburgh's divisional-round win over Baltimore. The Steelers hope the Super Bowl isn't decided by kicks.
Edge: Packers

Kick returner
Green Bay: James Starks
Pittsburgh: Antonio Brown
Green Bay: It's safe to say the Packers won't win Super Bowl XLV on kickoff returns. Green Bay has eight returns through three playoff games, and not one has exceeded 20 yards. Doubling as the feature running back, Starks leads the Pack with five postseason returns and is averaging 14 yards per attempt. DBs Charles Woodson and Sam Shields can bring back kickoffs in a pinch.

Pittsburgh: Statistics say Pittsburgh has a clear head-to-head advantage in kickoff returners. After averaging 23.4 yards per attempt with an 89-yard touchdown in the regular season, Brown has topped 20 yards on 5-of-7 playoff kick returns. Brown is quicker than Starks with much better long speed.
Edge: Steelers

Punter
Green Bay: Tim Masthay
Pittsburgh: Jeremy Kapinos
Green Bay: Masthay's statistical averages aren't overwhelming, but he's gaining steam as one of the NFLs top punters after consistently pinning the Bears deep in the NFC Championship. Devin Hester averaged just five yards on three punt returns, and Masthay complemented a 65-yard moonshot with five punts inside the Chicago 20-yard line. During the regular season, over 60 percent of Masthay's punts were either fair caught or landed inside the opposing 20.

Pittsburgh: Kapinos was signed off the street in early December after starter Daniel Sepulveda tore his ACL. Ironically the Packers' punter in 2009, the 26-year-old journeyman averaged just 41.1 yards per regular season punt to rank 32nd in the league. His miserable net average of 32.3 ranked 35th.
Edge: Packers

Punt returner
Pittsburgh: Antwaan Randle El
Green Bay: Tramon Williams
Green Bay: Also a shutdown cornerback, Williams has provided some postseason sparks with three punt returns of eight or more yards. During the regular season, he averaged 8.0 yards per return with three of 20 yards or longer. Williams also ranked fifth in the league in fair catches, however, and fumbled two punts. Ball security in the return game will be crucial for Green Bay.

Pittsburgh: Randle El used to be one of the NFL's most dangerous returners, but he's lost several steps. The 31-year-old managed an average of 4.0 yards per punt return in the regular season and was more likely to call for a fair catch. Pittsburgh would be better off using Antonio Brown on punts, but Randle El has been special teams coach Al Everest's choice through two playoff games.
Edge: Packers

Coach
Pittsburgh: Mike Tomlin
Green Bay: Mike McCarthy
Green Bay: The offensive-minded McCarthy improved his career playoff record to 4-2 in Green Bay's NFC title game win over Chicago, and his all-time win percentage stands at 60.5. McCarthy lacks his opposing coach's Super Bowl experience, of course, and entering this year's postseason was 1-for-3 in playoff games.

Pittsburgh: A defensive mind, Tomlin is 5-1 lifetime in the playoffs with a Super Bowl win on his resume (XLIII). All time, Tomlin has won 64 percent of his games. The 38-year-old Tomlin is the youngest head coach in NFL history to guide his team to two Super Bowl appearances in three years.
Edge: Steelers

NBCSports wrote:


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Since69
13 years ago
Not a lot to disagree with there. Man... if Starks can make them respect our ground game we could actually run away with this...
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macbob
  • macbob
  • Veteran Member Topic Starter
13 years ago
Most things simulations, etc are showing it to be an extremely evenly matched game. I suspect it may come down to a lucky bounce, etc.
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peteralan71
13 years ago
Truly is a good article. Any time that I read something that mostly sells a Packers win, I seem to think it's good. Weird... BUT, the guy does make a lot of very good points and you can tell that he took his time putting this together. The problem is that great teams have the ability to make their opponents play completely different football from what they usually do. Fortunately, we are also a great team, so if everything plays out right, it will b a tough game, but we will win by two scores. 35-24, Packers.
Green Bay: Home of the Green & Gold. And the hunter orange. And the camouflage.
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Greg C.
13 years ago
Interesting article, but the author oversells our O-line in a big way. He also oversells Tramon Williams' punt return abilities: "three punt returns of eight or more yards" in the playoffs is not as impressive as this guy seems to think it is.

No arguments with the rest of his analysis, though. A good read.
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wpr
  • wpr
  • Preferred Member
13 years ago
It all will come down to the GB OL and DL.
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Dulak
13 years ago
I chuckled at the punters stats - kapinos was err 32nd or 35th ...

IMO this is one of the reasons we beat the bears; we had em pinned near their endzone much of the game.

I do agree thou; not sure why they have starks running KR; I cant think of one return he has run that I felt he has really done well in. Shields did ok; jordy did decently also but not sure wed want him to do that again after that knee shot last year ...

I do give our Oline the advantage -
peteralan71
13 years ago
Our OL is as strong as Bulaga makes it. If he has a good game, it will help us a ton.

I don't think that he was saying Tramon is so great at PR, just that he has the edge on Randle El. That is simply taken from the stats.
Green Bay: Home of the Green & Gold. And the hunter orange. And the camouflage.
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zombieslayer
13 years ago

Polamalu is an All-Pro, but Pittsburgh's secondary is vulnerable otherwise. The cornerbacks rely heavily on front-seven pressure to make their jobs easier, because most of them can't cover. Nos. 2 and 3 corners Bryant McFadden and William Gay are particular liabilities. The Super Bowl will be played indoors, where Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is historically deadly. In 10 career dome games, he averages 265 passing yards with an 18:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio and 106.4 passer rating. Gay and McFadden must come up with the games of their lives.



Finny was bringing this up in another thread. I'd love to see the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th CBs attacked a lot in this game.
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Dulak
13 years ago

Polamalu is an All-Pro, but Pittsburgh's secondary is vulnerable otherwise. The cornerbacks rely heavily on front-seven pressure to make their jobs easier, because most of them can't cover. Nos. 2 and 3 corners Bryant McFadden and William Gay are particular liabilities. The Super Bowl will be played indoors, where Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is historically deadly. In 10 career dome games, he averages 265 passing yards with an 18:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio and 106.4 passer rating. Gay and McFadden must come up with the games of their lives.

"zombieslayer" wrote:



Finny was bringing this up in another thread. I'd love to see the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th CBs attacked a lot in this game.



Im hoping we go with 4 wideouts alot this game and keep a RB in the backfield for a short screen or to block if need be. Should be a nice match up for those steelers
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