Nonstopdrivel
14 years ago
If history is any indication, the Packers have as good a chance as any to make the Super Bowl this year. Of the 44 Super Bowls that have been played, only 9 (20.5%) have pitted No. 1 seeds against each other. The last time that had happened before the Saints/Colts Super Bowl was Super Bowl XXVIII in 1994.

Oddsmakers have observed that the NFL doesn't like Super Bowls between No. 1 seeds, because interestingly, all but one (XVI) of these Super Bowl have been routs. Last year was no exception, as the Saints defeated the Colts 31-17. Also of note is the fact that the favorites have won all but two of these Super Bowls, the only exceptions being the 2009-10 Saints and the 1983-84 Raiders. The Overall No. 1 seed has won 5 of the 6 times that both teams haven't entered the game with the same record.

If we can learn anything from history, then, it's that the Falcons and Patriots should feel pretty nervous going into this week, since there is a 79.5% chance that at least one of them is going to lose. Frankly, I'm hoping that both of them lose, but I'll settle for a Falcons defeat and a Seahawks victory.

List of all Super Bowls featuring No. 1 vs No. 1

  XLIV   2009-10    New Orleans Saints   (+4.5)   31-17  * Indianapolis Colts
XXVIII   1993-94    Dallas Cowboys      (-10.5)   30-13    Buffalo Bills
  XXVI   1991-92  * Washington Redskins    (-7)   37-24    Buffalo Bills
  XXIV   1989-90  * San Francisco 49ers   (-12)   55-10    Denver Broncos
   XIX   1984-85  * San Francisco 49ers    (-3)   38-16    Miami Dolphins
 XVIII   1983-84    Los Angeles Raiders    (+3)   38-9   * Washington Redskins
   XVI   1981-82  * San Francisco 49ers    (-2)   26-21    Cincinnati Bengals
   XII   1977-78    Dallas Cowboys         (-5)   27-10    Denver Broncos
    XI   1976-77    Oakland Raiders        (-5)   32-14    Minnesota Vikings 14

* denotes overall No. 1 seed

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peteralan71
14 years ago
Not to be the bearer of bad news, buuuuut........ The #1 seeds could lose next week. I'm not good with math, buuuuut........ that should cut down the previously stated 79.5% chance of either the Falcons or Patriots losing this week. Unfortunately.
Green Bay: Home of the Green & Gold. And the hunter orange. And the camouflage.
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warhawk
14 years ago
I'll throw a few numbers in here.

Green Bay is 18th in rushing yards allowed....but, they have only given up six rushing TD's all year which is second best in the NFL to the Steelers and Ravens. Both those teams are still playing football.

Green Bay has given up 16 passing TD's to 24 INTs. Only Pittsburg and the Bears have more INT's than TD's allowed. Both those teams are still playing football. The 16 TD's allowed was 4th best to the Steelers, Bears, and Saints but the Saints only had 9 INT's all year.

Green Bay has the 4th best defense in Passing Percentage at 56.2%. Atlanta has the 4th worst defense in Passing Percentage allowing 65% and only one other team (NE-10th) in the bottom 10 are still playing football.

Rodgers has the highest average YPA at 8.3 and the second highest completion percentage at 65.1%(Brady-65.3%).

Atlanta has the lowest YPA of all teams at 6.5%. They have only have allowed 23 sacks all year. In other words dinky do ball out short and quick.

I don't think we will see Woodson blitz much. They only ask Ryan to make quick short throws. I watched the last game over last night. I think Capers will try to move the safeties up and try to get more bodys on Turner and use Woodson to help take away those five to 10 yard passes and change up who he guards to throw Ryan off.

We can take this #1 seed down. They are certainly not the strongest #1 I have seen over the last several years. Good, solid, and, technically sound, but nothing great in any phase.

We get Rodgers on the field enough and he will take care of the rest.
"The train is leaving the station."
peteralan71
14 years ago

Green Bay is 18th in rushing yards allowed....but, they have only given up six rushing TD's all year which is second best in the NFL to the Steelers and Ravens. Both those teams are still playing football.

"warhawk" wrote:



I wasn't sure if NSD would say this, so I'll do it..... wouldn't that make us 3rd best in the NFL? Sorry, I had to :)

However I like the rest of your post. It points out all the areas that we have excelled at this season. If we can play out football, these things will continue to happen, and we'll earn another game.
Green Bay: Home of the Green & Gold. And the hunter orange. And the camouflage.
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warhawk
14 years ago

Green Bay is 18th in rushing yards allowed....but, they have only given up six rushing TD's all year which is second best in the NFL to the Steelers and Ravens. Both those teams are still playing football.

"peteralan71" wrote:



I wasn't sure if NSD would say this, so I'll do it..... wouldn't that make us 3rd best in the NFL? Sorry, I had to :)

However I like the rest of your post. It points out all the areas that we have excelled at this season. If we can play out football, these things will continue to happen, and we'll earn another game.

"warhawk" wrote:



Those two are tied for 1st at 5 rushing TD's allowed. Got to be on your toes around here don't ya?
"The train is leaving the station."
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