Nonstopdrivel
13 years ago
If history is any indication, the Packers have as good a chance as any to make the Super Bowl this year. Of the 44 Super Bowls that have been played, only 9 (20.5%) have pitted No. 1 seeds against each other. The last time that had happened before the Saints/Colts Super Bowl was Super Bowl XXVIII in 1994.

Oddsmakers have observed that the NFL doesn't like Super Bowls between No. 1 seeds, because interestingly, all but one (XVI) of these Super Bowl have been routs. Last year was no exception, as the Saints defeated the Colts 31-17. Also of note is the fact that the favorites have won all but two of these Super Bowls, the only exceptions being the 2009-10 Saints and the 1983-84 Raiders. The Overall No. 1 seed has won 5 of the 6 times that both teams haven't entered the game with the same record.

If we can learn anything from history, then, it's that the Falcons and Patriots should feel pretty nervous going into this week, since there is a 79.5% chance that at least one of them is going to lose. Frankly, I'm hoping that both of them lose, but I'll settle for a Falcons defeat and a Seahawks victory.

List of all Super Bowls featuring No. 1 vs No. 1

  XLIV   2009-10    New Orleans Saints   (+4.5)   31-17  * Indianapolis Colts
XXVIII   1993-94    Dallas Cowboys      (-10.5)   30-13    Buffalo Bills
  XXVI   1991-92  * Washington Redskins    (-7)   37-24    Buffalo Bills
  XXIV   1989-90  * San Francisco 49ers   (-12)   55-10    Denver Broncos
   XIX   1984-85  * San Francisco 49ers    (-3)   38-16    Miami Dolphins
 XVIII   1983-84    Los Angeles Raiders    (+3)   38-9   * Washington Redskins
   XVI   1981-82  * San Francisco 49ers    (-2)   26-21    Cincinnati Bengals
   XII   1977-78    Dallas Cowboys         (-5)   27-10    Denver Broncos
    XI   1976-77    Oakland Raiders        (-5)   32-14    Minnesota Vikings 14

* denotes overall No. 1 seed

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peteralan71
13 years ago
Not to be the bearer of bad news, buuuuut........ The #1 seeds could lose next week. I'm not good with math, buuuuut........ that should cut down the previously stated 79.5% chance of either the Falcons or Patriots losing this week. Unfortunately.
Green Bay: Home of the Green & Gold. And the hunter orange. And the camouflage.
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warhawk
13 years ago
I'll throw a few numbers in here.

Green Bay is 18th in rushing yards allowed....but, they have only given up six rushing TD's all year which is second best in the NFL to the Steelers and Ravens. Both those teams are still playing football.

Green Bay has given up 16 passing TD's to 24 INTs. Only Pittsburg and the Bears have more INT's than TD's allowed. Both those teams are still playing football. The 16 TD's allowed was 4th best to the Steelers, Bears, and Saints but the Saints only had 9 INT's all year.

Green Bay has the 4th best defense in Passing Percentage at 56.2%. Atlanta has the 4th worst defense in Passing Percentage allowing 65% and only one other team (NE-10th) in the bottom 10 are still playing football.

Rodgers has the highest average YPA at 8.3 and the second highest completion percentage at 65.1%(Brady-65.3%).

Atlanta has the lowest YPA of all teams at 6.5%. They have only have allowed 23 sacks all year. In other words dinky do ball out short and quick.

I don't think we will see Woodson blitz much. They only ask Ryan to make quick short throws. I watched the last game over last night. I think Capers will try to move the safeties up and try to get more bodys on Turner and use Woodson to help take away those five to 10 yard passes and change up who he guards to throw Ryan off.

We can take this #1 seed down. They are certainly not the strongest #1 I have seen over the last several years. Good, solid, and, technically sound, but nothing great in any phase.

We get Rodgers on the field enough and he will take care of the rest.
"The train is leaving the station."
peteralan71
13 years ago

Green Bay is 18th in rushing yards allowed....but, they have only given up six rushing TD's all year which is second best in the NFL to the Steelers and Ravens. Both those teams are still playing football.

"warhawk" wrote:



I wasn't sure if NSD would say this, so I'll do it..... wouldn't that make us 3rd best in the NFL? Sorry, I had to :)

However I like the rest of your post. It points out all the areas that we have excelled at this season. If we can play out football, these things will continue to happen, and we'll earn another game.
Green Bay: Home of the Green & Gold. And the hunter orange. And the camouflage.
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warhawk
13 years ago

Green Bay is 18th in rushing yards allowed....but, they have only given up six rushing TD's all year which is second best in the NFL to the Steelers and Ravens. Both those teams are still playing football.

"peteralan71" wrote:



I wasn't sure if NSD would say this, so I'll do it..... wouldn't that make us 3rd best in the NFL? Sorry, I had to :)

However I like the rest of your post. It points out all the areas that we have excelled at this season. If we can play out football, these things will continue to happen, and we'll earn another game.

"warhawk" wrote:



Those two are tied for 1st at 5 rushing TD's allowed. Got to be on your toes around here don't ya?
"The train is leaving the station."
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Zero2Cool (24-Nov) : Bears. Vikings. OT
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Mucky Tundra (24-Nov) : Two players out and Williams had an injury designation this week but Oladapo is a healthy scratch
Zero2Cool (24-Nov) : Packers inactives vs 49ers: • CB Jaire Alexander • S Kitan Oladapo • LB Edgerrin Cooper • OL Jacob Monk
TheKanataThrilla (24-Nov) : Aaron Jones with a costly red zone fumble
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packerfanoutwest (23-Nov) : Report: Aaron Rodgers wants to play in 2025, but not for the Jets
beast (23-Nov) : That's what I told the Police officer about my speed when he pulled me over
packerfanoutwest (23-Nov) : NFL told Bears that Packers’ blocked field goal was legal
packerfanoutwest (22-Nov) : 49ers are underdogs at Packers, ending streak of 36 straight games as favorites
Zero2Cool (22-Nov) : 49ers might be down their QB, DL, TE and LT?
packerfanoutwest (22-Nov) : Jaire Alexander says he has a torn PCL
Zero2Cool (20-Nov) : Even with the context it's ... what?
Mucky Tundra (20-Nov) : Matt LaFleur without context: “I don’t wanna pat you on the butt and you poop in my hand.”
beast (20-Nov) : We brought in a former Packers OL coach to help evaluate OL as a scout
beast (20-Nov) : Jets have been pretty good at picking DL
Zero2Cool (20-Nov) : He landed good players thanks to high draft slot. He isn't good.
Zero2Cool (20-Nov) : He can shove his knowledge up his ass. He knows nothing.
beast (20-Nov) : More knowledge, just like bring in the Jets head coach
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : What? Why? Huh?
beast (19-Nov) : I wonder if the Packers might to try to bring Douglas in through Milt Hendrickson/Ravens connections
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : The Jets fired Joe Douglas, per sources
packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : Jets are a mess......
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : Pretty sure Jets fired their scouting staff and just pluck former Packers.
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : Jets sign Anders Carlson to their 53.
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : When you cycle the weeks, the total over remains for season. But you get your W/L for that selected week. Confusing.
packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : the total and percentage are the same as the previous weeks
packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : the total and percentage are the same as the previous weeks
packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : the totals are accurate..nrvrtmind
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : I don't follow what you are saying. The totals are not the same as last week.
packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : ok so then wht are the totals the same as last week?
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : NFL Pick'em is auto updated when NFL Scores tab is clicked
Martha Careful (19-Nov) : The offense was OK. Let's not forget the Bear defense is very very good.
packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : Who updates the leaderboard on NFLPickem?
beast (19-Nov) : Has the Packers offense been worse since the former Jets coach joined the Packers?
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : Offense gets his ass in gear, this could be good.
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : Backup QB helped with three wins. Special Teams contributed to three wins.
bboystyle (18-Nov) : Lions played outside thats why. They scored 16 and 17 in the only 2 outside games this year
Zero2Cool (18-Nov) : The rest of the NFL is catching up to Packers ... kicking is an issue throughout league
packerfanoutwest (18-Nov) : Packers DL Kenny Clark: We knew 'we were going to block' Bears' game-winning field goal attempt
Zero2Cool (18-Nov) : Lions seem to be throttling everyone, but only (only) got 24 lol maybe the rain is why
Zero2Cool (18-Nov) : Packers vs Lions game doesn't seem so bad.
beast (18-Nov) : Dennis Green "They are what we thought they were, and we let them off the hook!"
Martha Careful (17-Nov) : comment of the day Z2Cool "Bears better than we want to admit. Packers worse than we think. It's facts."
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