Nonstopdrivel
14 years ago

Packers struggle to close out close victories
 
Associated Press
Published: Dec. 2, 2010 at 12:48 a.m. Updated: Dec. 3, 2010 at 07:55 a.m.

GREEN BAY, Wis. -- At first glance, it seems like a harsh indictment of Aaron Rodgers' ability to win close games: Since he took over as the starting quarterback in 2008, the Green Bay Packers are 2-12 in games decided by four or fewer points.

A closer look shows that Sunday's loss at Atlanta wasn't the first time Rodgers successfully led a late-game Packers comeback, only to watch it turn into a loss. Each of the Packers' four losses this season was by three points, despite some strong fourth-quarter drives by Rodgers and the offense.

Rodgers has heard the criticism that he hasn't yet found his fourth-quarter quarterbacking mojo, but he says it doesn't bother him.

"It really doesn't," Rodgers said. "That's a stat that gets thrown out there. I'm trying to win games. (Twelve) of my 19 losses are by four points or less. Some people look at that as a negative. Well, we've been competitive in every game. How many times have we been blown out?"

Not many, but Rodgers probably has to pull off a few more memorable fourth-quarter wins to make that stat go away.

And more important, the Packers' special teams and defense have to perform better.

In nine of the Packers' 12 close losses since 2008, Rodgers and the offense drove for a touchdown or field goal to either tie the score or take the lead at some point in the fourth quarter -- but the Packers still lost. In the other three, the Packers were in position to kick a decisive field goal, but they missed or it was blocked.

Most of those games came in 2008, leading to the dismissal of most of the Packers' defensive coaching staff. But it has become an issue again this season.

With the Packers trailing by seven Sunday at Atlanta, Rodgers executed a masterful 16-play, 90-yard drive that included a pair of fourth-down conversions -- including a 10-yard touchdown pass to Jordy Nelson on fourth-and-goal to tie the score with 56 seconds remaining.

"I have never seen a quarterback, in my time here, play to that level in the passing game," Packers coach Mike McCarthy said this week. "I'll make that statement clearly here."

But the Packers' special teams promptly gave up a big kick return and committed a personal foul, giving the ball back to the Falcons near midfield. The defense couldn't hold, and Atlanta kicked the game-winning field goal with nine seconds left.

"We've done that a few times this season," Rodgers said. "When we've had to have a drive, we've been able to come up with a big drive, and, unfortunately, we've come up on the short end of a couple of those games. There's an urgency level that is there.

"I think when adversity hits this team, it's the thing I'm most proud of: We meet it head-on, and we've been able to make some plays in those situations. I think the urgency needs to be there a little bit more. Obviously, every play in the game."

Rodgers took the blame for his fumble on an attempted quarterback sneak near the goal line in the second quarter.

"I told the guys before the game last week: I said, 'It's going to be a 60-minute game, and it could be a play that happens in the first, second, third or fourth quarter that wins the game or loses the game,'" Rodgers said. "And, unfortunately, I was foreshadowing a play in the second quarter that possibly could have cost us the game. But, unfortunately, you never know when that play is going to be."

When it comes to winning close games, McCarthy said there isn't one specific thing holding the Packers back.

"You don't line up on Sunday afternoon and you're given one opportunity to win the game," McCarthy said. "There's hundreds of different types of opportunities that go on inside that game, and you can break it down by play. Did you win the play or did you lose the play? And when you're winning 60 percent-plus of your plays, you should be winning those games. There was a lot of offensive production this past week, but the bottom line is we didn't get in the end zone enough."


UserPostedImage
Greg C.
14 years ago
This is a good article, and it did not even mention the ironic fact that if Rodgers had not led that late TD drive in Atlanta, the Packers would've lost by seven points and therefore the game would not have made the list of "close" games that the Packers have lost with Rodgers at the helm.
blank
Stevetarded
14 years ago
I want to know who the fuck decided 4 points or less is the standard for a close game. That is such a remarkably stupid stat. Lets consider a QB who is losing by 1 point throwing a game winning TD NOT winning a close game but a QB throwing a pick 6 when they are up by 10 points winning a close game. Not to mention it's a complete team stat and doesn't even measure the quarterbacks actual performance in the game.

Here is an interesting comparison that rates QBs actual performances in comeback situations compared to how other QBs perform.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ramblings/2010/guest-column-adjusted-comeback-efficiency 
Rodgers rates 5th.
blank
14 years ago

"It really doesn't," Rodgers said. "That's a stat that gets thrown out there. I'm trying to win games. (Twelve) of my 19 losses are by four points or less. Some people look at that as a negative. Well, we've been competitive in every game. How many times have we been blown out?"

This exact thought came to mind when i watched Brees get spanked by the browns, Peyton Manning get destroyed by the Chargers, when i watched Rivers get beat down by the Raiders.

All i kept thinking was thank you Packers for keeping games close, competitive, and exciting.

Sure I want to the Packers to win those close games but i would take getting beat in a nail biter 100 times over seeing my team get killed.

I think many of us fans look way passed this. We are criticizing Rodgers for not being able to win the close games. But on the other side we can also be thanking him for keeping the games close and exciting.
UserPostedImage
Greg C.
14 years ago

I want to know who the fuck decided 4 points or less is the standard for a close game. That is such a remarkably stupid stat. Lets consider a QB who is losing by 1 point throwing a game winning TD NOT winning a close game but a QB throwing a pick 6 when they are up by 10 points winning a close game. Not to mention it's a complete team stat and doesn't even measure the quarterbacks actual performance in the game.

Here is an interesting comparison that rates QBs actual performances in comeback situations compared to how other QBs perform.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ramblings/2010/guest-column-adjusted-comeback-efficiency 
Rodgers rates 5th.

"Stevetarded" wrote:



That is a fascinating article. It looks like we finally have a way to measure clutch performance. I gave up on the traditional "fourth quarter comeback" number back around 2001 when Allen Rossum returned a punt for a game-winning TD and Favre got credit for a fourth quarter comeback. One of the big reasons I soured on Favre was his shaky performance in the clutch. His rating in this article was even lower than I would have expected. And Rodgers' rating is much higher than expected. I thought he would be about average.
blank
Nonstopdrivel
14 years ago
Permit me to thumb my nose once again at all the idiots who mindlessly parrot the mantra: "If I had to have one quarterback in the league with two minutes to go, I'd take Brett Favre." I've known for so many years it wasn't true, but it's nice to finally the numbers to back it up.

After [Jason] Campbell, the players with the largest negative differentials are two superstars with reputations for big mistakes in big moments: Donovan McNabb and Brett Favre. McNabb (0.94, 39th) and Favre (0.93, 40th) both have ACE ratings that confirm their below-average performance in clutch situations. The peak of Favre's career (1995-97) is cut off by the 1998 start date for the our data, but with by far the most comeback opportunities (187) of anyone on the list, there are no issues with data credibility for Favre (his personal credibility is a separate debate).



This was written in February 2010, long before his meltdown of this season. Imagine how bad his numbers must look now.
UserPostedImage
peteralan71
14 years ago
I think a lot of it has to do with the D, the ST, and the playcalling and clock management. There are many times that we get the tie or the go-ahead with 1-3 minutes left. For a lot of teams, that is too much time. Teams these days have become too efficient and talented with the 2-minute drills. They bring in different offensive sets that are not seen throughout the game, they go no-huddle, etc. etc. etc. Teams more often than not are good at the 2-minute drill. That's the case against the Packers anyway. And I wouldn't put that 100% on the defense, as our D has shown to be more than sufficient this season.
Green Bay: Home of the Green & Gold. And the hunter orange. And the camouflage.
UserPostedImage
Nonstopdrivel
14 years ago
This exchange from the comments section made me laugh, so I thought I'd share it here:

I never take the time to comment on anything, but this was one of the most enlightening and interesting articles I've ever read on this site. I thoroughly enjoyed it, excellent work.

Perhaps though, for the sake of catching on with a network you should look into incorporating how much fun a quarterback is having during those comeback drives into your formula. Announcers will continue to spout off about how clutch Favre is no matter what, you might as well give them what they're looking for.

"Random (not verified)" wrote:



Coming soon to stat lines near you, Defense-Adjusted F-HOT - Fun Had Out There.

"Mystyc" wrote:



And I don't think that drives that fail because of "gunslinging" should count as failed drives.

"ChrisZ" wrote:


UserPostedImage
Fan Shout
Mucky Tundra (4h) : CLIFFORD WITH THE TD WITH UNDER 2 TO GO!!!!!
Zero2Cool (9h) : 90 MINUTES UNTIL FAKE KICKOFF!!
Martha Careful (13h) : I think Ruven is a bot, but regardless should be stricken from the site.
Zero2Cool (14-Aug) : Packers RB Josh Jacobs ranked No. 33 in NFL 'Top 100'
dfosterf (13-Aug) : The LVN Musgrave collision- Andy Herman said Musgrave seemed to be the one most impacted injury-wise
dfosterf (13-Aug) : a lower back injury
dfosterf (13-Aug) : Doubs says he's "fine" after injury scare. Some reported it as z
Mucky Tundra (13-Aug) : With LVN that is; need to see what happens in the next practice
Mucky Tundra (13-Aug) : beast, reading about what happened, it sounded like one of those "two guys collide and are moving slow afterwards" type of deals
beast (12-Aug) : I believe Musgrave has been injured every single season since at least a Sophomore in highschool
packerfanoutwest (12-Aug) : Matt LaFleur: “Highly unlikely” Jordan Love plays more this preseason
dfosterf (12-Aug) : Doubs, Savion Williams, LVN, Musgrave all banged up to one degree or another, missing one here I forget
Zero2Cool (12-Aug) : RB Tyrion Davis-Price is signing with the Green Bay Packers.
Zero2Cool (12-Aug) : zero help, dominated. preseason
beast (12-Aug) : QB Jordan Love has surgery
beast (12-Aug) : Martha said Morgan had a lot of help, I didn't watch the OL so I can't say.
Zero2Cool (10-Aug) : Packers LT Jordan Morgan did not allow a single pressure across 23 pass-blocking snaps vs. Jets last night, per PFF
Mucky Tundra (10-Aug) : With buckeye and the reasonable couple, we're currently sitting at 10
buckeyepackfan (10-Aug) : Just posted to re-up on our FFL.
Zero2Cool (10-Aug) : If healthy after, then thats all I care. Well, no drops would be nice
wpr (10-Aug) : I made it through the 1st Q.
dfosterf (10-Aug) : Just gotta figure out how.
dfosterf (10-Aug) : Could have been a worse start, so there is that.
beast (10-Aug) : Yeah, someone tell the Packers football season has started, seems like they weren't ready for it
Mucky Tundra (10-Aug) : Sooooooo many penalties
Mucky Tundra (10-Aug) : It may only be preseason, but this game is a trip to the dentist
Zero2Cool (10-Aug) : Packers do bad -- FREAK OUT!!!!!!
Zero2Cool (10-Aug) : Packers do good -- eh only preseason
dfosterf (10-Aug) : Well that half was fun
Zero2Cool (10-Aug) : Great, zayne is down
Zero2Cool (9-Aug) : 13 minutes away from kickkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkoffff
Zero2Cool (9-Aug) : Had Celebration of Life for my uncle up north. wicked rain hope it dont come south
Mucky Tundra (9-Aug) : THE GREEN BAY PACKERS ARE PLAYING FOOTBALL TONIGHT!!!!!! THIS IS NOT A DRILL!!!!
Zero2Cool (9-Aug) : Woo-hoo
TheKanataThrilla (9-Aug) : NFL Network is broadcasting the game tonight, but not in Canada. Not sure why as no local television is showing the game.
beast (8-Aug) : But the Return from IR designations had to be applied by the 53 man cutdown.
beast (8-Aug) : It's a new rule, so it's not clear, but my understanding was that they could be IR'd at any time
Mucky Tundra (8-Aug) : *had to be IRed at 53
Mucky Tundra (8-Aug) : beast, I thought the designate return from IR players had to be IR at cutdowns to 53, not before
beast (8-Aug) : It's a brand new rule, either last season or this season, prior, all pre-season IRs were done for the season
beast (8-Aug) : But the Packers would have to use one for their return from IR spots on him, when they cut down to 53.
beast (8-Aug) : I think the NFL recently changed the IR rules, so maybe the season might not be over for OL Glover.
Zero2Cool (8-Aug) : Packers star Howton, first NFLPA prez, dies at 95 😔
dfosterf (8-Aug) : Apparently it is too complicated for several to follow your simple instructions, but I digress
dfosterf (8-Aug) : Zero- Did you see what I posted about Voice of Reason and his wife? She posted over at fleaflicker that they are both "In"
Zero2Cool (7-Aug) : Well, not crazy, it makes sense. Crazy I didn't notice/find it earlier
Zero2Cool (7-Aug) : it's crazy how one stored procedure to get data bogged everything down for speed here
dfosterf (7-Aug) : to herd cats or goldfish without a bowl. They reminded me of the annual assembly of our fantasy league
dfosterf (7-Aug) : out on a field trip, outfitting them with little yellow smocks. Most of the little folk were well behaved, but several were like trying
dfosterf (7-Aug) : Yesterday my wife and I spent the afternoon on the waterfront here in Alexandria, Va. A daycare company took about 15 three/four year olds
Please sign in to use Fan Shout
2025 Packers Schedule
Sunday, Sep 7 @ 3:25 PM
LIONS
Thursday, Sep 11 @ 7:15 PM
COMMANDERS
Sunday, Sep 21 @ 12:00 PM
Browns
Sunday, Sep 28 @ 7:20 PM
Cowboys
Sunday, Oct 12 @ 3:25 PM
BENGALS
Sunday, Oct 19 @ 3:25 PM
Cardinals
Sunday, Oct 26 @ 7:20 PM
Steelers
Sunday, Nov 2 @ 12:00 PM
PANTHERS
Monday, Nov 10 @ 7:15 PM
EAGLES
Sunday, Nov 16 @ 12:00 PM
Giants
Sunday, Nov 23 @ 12:00 PM
VIKINGS
Thursday, Nov 27 @ 12:00 PM
Lions
Sunday, Dec 7 @ 12:00 PM
BEARS
Sunday, Dec 14 @ 3:25 PM
Broncos
Friday, Dec 19 @ 11:00 PM
Bears
Friday, Dec 26 @ 11:00 PM
RAVENS
Saturday, Jan 3 @ 11:00 PM
Vikings
Recent Topics
8h / Feedback, Suggestions and Issues / beast

8h / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

15-Aug / Around The NFL / Mucky Tundra

13-Aug / Green Bay Packers Talk / dfosterf

12-Aug / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

12-Aug / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

12-Aug / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

12-Aug / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

12-Aug / Random Babble / Zero2Cool

11-Aug / Green Bay Packers Talk / bboystyle

11-Aug / Around The NFL / Martha Careful

11-Aug / Around The NFL / packerfanoutwest

10-Aug / Fantasy Sports Talk / buckeyepackfan

10-Aug / Green Bay Packers Talk / dfosterf

10-Aug / Around The NFL / Mucky Tundra

Headlines
Copyright © 2006 - 2025 PackersHome.com™. All Rights Reserved.