Nonstopdrivel
14 years ago

Packers struggle to close out close victories
 
Associated Press
Published: Dec. 2, 2010 at 12:48 a.m. Updated: Dec. 3, 2010 at 07:55 a.m.

GREEN BAY, Wis. -- At first glance, it seems like a harsh indictment of Aaron Rodgers' ability to win close games: Since he took over as the starting quarterback in 2008, the Green Bay Packers are 2-12 in games decided by four or fewer points.

A closer look shows that Sunday's loss at Atlanta wasn't the first time Rodgers successfully led a late-game Packers comeback, only to watch it turn into a loss. Each of the Packers' four losses this season was by three points, despite some strong fourth-quarter drives by Rodgers and the offense.

Rodgers has heard the criticism that he hasn't yet found his fourth-quarter quarterbacking mojo, but he says it doesn't bother him.

"It really doesn't," Rodgers said. "That's a stat that gets thrown out there. I'm trying to win games. (Twelve) of my 19 losses are by four points or less. Some people look at that as a negative. Well, we've been competitive in every game. How many times have we been blown out?"

Not many, but Rodgers probably has to pull off a few more memorable fourth-quarter wins to make that stat go away.

And more important, the Packers' special teams and defense have to perform better.

In nine of the Packers' 12 close losses since 2008, Rodgers and the offense drove for a touchdown or field goal to either tie the score or take the lead at some point in the fourth quarter -- but the Packers still lost. In the other three, the Packers were in position to kick a decisive field goal, but they missed or it was blocked.

Most of those games came in 2008, leading to the dismissal of most of the Packers' defensive coaching staff. But it has become an issue again this season.

With the Packers trailing by seven Sunday at Atlanta, Rodgers executed a masterful 16-play, 90-yard drive that included a pair of fourth-down conversions -- including a 10-yard touchdown pass to Jordy Nelson on fourth-and-goal to tie the score with 56 seconds remaining.

"I have never seen a quarterback, in my time here, play to that level in the passing game," Packers coach Mike McCarthy said this week. "I'll make that statement clearly here."

But the Packers' special teams promptly gave up a big kick return and committed a personal foul, giving the ball back to the Falcons near midfield. The defense couldn't hold, and Atlanta kicked the game-winning field goal with nine seconds left.

"We've done that a few times this season," Rodgers said. "When we've had to have a drive, we've been able to come up with a big drive, and, unfortunately, we've come up on the short end of a couple of those games. There's an urgency level that is there.

"I think when adversity hits this team, it's the thing I'm most proud of: We meet it head-on, and we've been able to make some plays in those situations. I think the urgency needs to be there a little bit more. Obviously, every play in the game."

Rodgers took the blame for his fumble on an attempted quarterback sneak near the goal line in the second quarter.

"I told the guys before the game last week: I said, 'It's going to be a 60-minute game, and it could be a play that happens in the first, second, third or fourth quarter that wins the game or loses the game,'" Rodgers said. "And, unfortunately, I was foreshadowing a play in the second quarter that possibly could have cost us the game. But, unfortunately, you never know when that play is going to be."

When it comes to winning close games, McCarthy said there isn't one specific thing holding the Packers back.

"You don't line up on Sunday afternoon and you're given one opportunity to win the game," McCarthy said. "There's hundreds of different types of opportunities that go on inside that game, and you can break it down by play. Did you win the play or did you lose the play? And when you're winning 60 percent-plus of your plays, you should be winning those games. There was a lot of offensive production this past week, but the bottom line is we didn't get in the end zone enough."


UserPostedImage
Greg C.
14 years ago
This is a good article, and it did not even mention the ironic fact that if Rodgers had not led that late TD drive in Atlanta, the Packers would've lost by seven points and therefore the game would not have made the list of "close" games that the Packers have lost with Rodgers at the helm.
blank
Stevetarded
14 years ago
I want to know who the fuck decided 4 points or less is the standard for a close game. That is such a remarkably stupid stat. Lets consider a QB who is losing by 1 point throwing a game winning TD NOT winning a close game but a QB throwing a pick 6 when they are up by 10 points winning a close game. Not to mention it's a complete team stat and doesn't even measure the quarterbacks actual performance in the game.

Here is an interesting comparison that rates QBs actual performances in comeback situations compared to how other QBs perform.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ramblings/2010/guest-column-adjusted-comeback-efficiency 
Rodgers rates 5th.
blank
14 years ago

"It really doesn't," Rodgers said. "That's a stat that gets thrown out there. I'm trying to win games. (Twelve) of my 19 losses are by four points or less. Some people look at that as a negative. Well, we've been competitive in every game. How many times have we been blown out?"

This exact thought came to mind when i watched Brees get spanked by the browns, Peyton Manning get destroyed by the Chargers, when i watched Rivers get beat down by the Raiders.

All i kept thinking was thank you Packers for keeping games close, competitive, and exciting.

Sure I want to the Packers to win those close games but i would take getting beat in a nail biter 100 times over seeing my team get killed.

I think many of us fans look way passed this. We are criticizing Rodgers for not being able to win the close games. But on the other side we can also be thanking him for keeping the games close and exciting.
UserPostedImage
Greg C.
14 years ago

I want to know who the fuck decided 4 points or less is the standard for a close game. That is such a remarkably stupid stat. Lets consider a QB who is losing by 1 point throwing a game winning TD NOT winning a close game but a QB throwing a pick 6 when they are up by 10 points winning a close game. Not to mention it's a complete team stat and doesn't even measure the quarterbacks actual performance in the game.

Here is an interesting comparison that rates QBs actual performances in comeback situations compared to how other QBs perform.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ramblings/2010/guest-column-adjusted-comeback-efficiency 
Rodgers rates 5th.

"Stevetarded" wrote:



That is a fascinating article. It looks like we finally have a way to measure clutch performance. I gave up on the traditional "fourth quarter comeback" number back around 2001 when Allen Rossum returned a punt for a game-winning TD and Favre got credit for a fourth quarter comeback. One of the big reasons I soured on Favre was his shaky performance in the clutch. His rating in this article was even lower than I would have expected. And Rodgers' rating is much higher than expected. I thought he would be about average.
blank
Nonstopdrivel
14 years ago
Permit me to thumb my nose once again at all the idiots who mindlessly parrot the mantra: "If I had to have one quarterback in the league with two minutes to go, I'd take Brett Favre." I've known for so many years it wasn't true, but it's nice to finally the numbers to back it up.

After [Jason] Campbell, the players with the largest negative differentials are two superstars with reputations for big mistakes in big moments: Donovan McNabb and Brett Favre. McNabb (0.94, 39th) and Favre (0.93, 40th) both have ACE ratings that confirm their below-average performance in clutch situations. The peak of Favre's career (1995-97) is cut off by the 1998 start date for the our data, but with by far the most comeback opportunities (187) of anyone on the list, there are no issues with data credibility for Favre (his personal credibility is a separate debate).



This was written in February 2010, long before his meltdown of this season. Imagine how bad his numbers must look now.
UserPostedImage
peteralan71
14 years ago
I think a lot of it has to do with the D, the ST, and the playcalling and clock management. There are many times that we get the tie or the go-ahead with 1-3 minutes left. For a lot of teams, that is too much time. Teams these days have become too efficient and talented with the 2-minute drills. They bring in different offensive sets that are not seen throughout the game, they go no-huddle, etc. etc. etc. Teams more often than not are good at the 2-minute drill. That's the case against the Packers anyway. And I wouldn't put that 100% on the defense, as our D has shown to be more than sufficient this season.
Green Bay: Home of the Green & Gold. And the hunter orange. And the camouflage.
UserPostedImage
Nonstopdrivel
14 years ago
This exchange from the comments section made me laugh, so I thought I'd share it here:

I never take the time to comment on anything, but this was one of the most enlightening and interesting articles I've ever read on this site. I thoroughly enjoyed it, excellent work.

Perhaps though, for the sake of catching on with a network you should look into incorporating how much fun a quarterback is having during those comeback drives into your formula. Announcers will continue to spout off about how clutch Favre is no matter what, you might as well give them what they're looking for.

"Random (not verified)" wrote:



Coming soon to stat lines near you, Defense-Adjusted F-HOT - Fun Had Out There.

"Mystyc" wrote:



And I don't think that drives that fail because of "gunslinging" should count as failed drives.

"ChrisZ" wrote:


UserPostedImage
Fan Shout
Zero2Cool (12h) : Patriots / Panthers feeling is what I got. didn't watch that one either
Zero2Cool (12h) : Easier to get a camera on her in the suite where she can't impact the game by being distraction???
TheKanataThrilla (12h) : This is the least excited I have been in a long time for a Super Bowl. Unfortunately they both can't lose.
wpr (12h) : So why don;'t they have her on the sidelines and doing the halftime fandango instead of sitting on her but in a $1,000,000 suite?
Zero2Cool (13h) : Think more eyes on Super Bowl with Swift fans pulling for her TE boyfriend?
Zero2Cool (13h) : She dating the TE of the Chiefs.
Zero2Cool (13h) : Taylor Swift has millions of fans, yeah?
Zero2Cool (14h) : They did. They are going to show the post production Sunday with plethora of ads.
wpr (5-Feb) : I thought KC already won
Zero2Cool (4-Feb) : If you wanna post about the Super Bowl, please, by all means, open a topic. They are free this month! 😁
Zero2Cool (4-Feb) : There doesn't need to be a topic. There's a playoff prediction thread.
packerfanoutwest (4-Feb) : and there no SB contest over in the other Packer forum, either
buckeyepackfan (4-Feb) : #2Officially Retires!
beast (4-Feb) : Probably no SB topic as people are wore out talking about the Chiefs, Refs and Eagles
Zero2Cool (4-Feb) : Packers reportedly have their new LB coach, promoting Sean Duggan to that role
Zero2Cool (4-Feb) : WR Cooper Kupp is being traded.
packerfanoutwest (4-Feb) : why is there no SB Prediction topic?
Zero2Cool (3-Feb) : Anthony Perkins spent 2024 as a defensive quality-control coach with the Packers.
Zero2Cool (3-Feb) : Packers lose another assistant.
Zero2Cool (3-Feb) : Defensive Player of the Year and Browns star Myles Garrett has requested a trade.
Zero2Cool (3-Feb) : deleted all my browser history and autofill and passwords. gonna be fun!
packerfanoutwest (3-Feb) : too funny
packerfanoutwest (3-Feb) : Lions QB Jared Goff was the offensive MVP
packerfanoutwest (3-Feb) : for the Pro Bowl, which is flag football
Zero2Cool (2-Feb) : Rather, the murder WAS covered up to prevent ...
Zero2Cool (2-Feb) : JFK murder was a cover-up to prevent war with Cuba/Russia.
Martha Careful (1-Feb) : I have always admired the pluck of the man
Zero2Cool (1-Feb) : I remember thinking he was going to be something good.
Mucky Tundra (1-Feb) : The Dualing Banjo!
Zero2Cool (31-Jan) : Jets have named Chris Banjo as their special teams coordinator, Former Packers player
Zero2Cool (31-Jan) : Jaguars have hired Anthony Campanile as their DC. We lose coach
Zero2Cool (30-Jan) : QB coach Sean Mannion
Zero2Cool (30-Jan) : DL Coach DeMarcus Covington
dfosterf (30-Jan) : from ft Belvoir, Quantico and points south. Somber reminder of this tragedy at Reagan Nat Airport
dfosterf (30-Jan) : So eerily quiet here in Alexandria. I live in the flight path of commercial craft coming from the south and west, plus the military craft
dfosterf (30-Jan) : So eeri
Mucky Tundra (30-Jan) : Now that's a thought, maybe they're looking at the college ranks? Maybe not head coaches but DC/assistant DCs with league experience?
beast (30-Jan) : College Coaches wouldn't want that publicly, as it would hurt recruiting and they might not get the job.
beast (30-Jan) : I thought they were supposed to publicly announce them, at least the NFL ones. Hafley was from college, so I believe different rules.
Mucky Tundra (30-Jan) : Who knows who they're interviewing? I mean, nobody knew about Hafley and then out of nowhere he was hired
beast (30-Jan) : I wonder what's taking so long with hiring a DL coach, 2 of the 3 known to interview have already been hired elsewhere.
Zero2Cool (27-Jan) : Packers coach Matt LaFleur hires Luke Getsy as senior assistant, extends Rich Bisaccia's deal
Zero2Cool (27-Jan) : Chiefs again huh? I guess another Super Bowl I'll be finding something else to do.
Mucky Tundra (27-Jan) : Chiefs Eagles...again...sigh
dfosterf (27-Jan) : Happy Birthday Dave!
Mucky Tundra (27-Jan) : happy birthday dhazer
TheKanataThrilla (26-Jan) : Exactly buck...Washington came up with the ball. It is just a shitty coincidence one week later
buckeyepackfan (26-Jan) : I forgot, they corrected the call a week later. Lol btw HAPPY BIRTHDAY dhazer!
buckeyepackfan (26-Jan) : That brings up the question, why wasn't Nixon down by contact? I think that was the point Kanata was making.
buckeyepackfan (26-Jan) : Turnovers rule, win the turnover battle, win the game.
Please sign in to use Fan Shout
2024 Packers Schedule
Friday, Sep 6 @ 7:15 PM
Eagles
Sunday, Sep 15 @ 12:00 PM
COLTS
Sunday, Sep 22 @ 12:00 PM
Titans
Sunday, Sep 29 @ 12:00 PM
VIKINGS
Sunday, Oct 6 @ 3:25 PM
Rams
Sunday, Oct 13 @ 12:00 PM
CARDINALS
Sunday, Oct 20 @ 12:00 PM
TEXANS
Sunday, Oct 27 @ 12:00 PM
Jaguars
Sunday, Nov 3 @ 3:25 PM
LIONS
Sunday, Nov 17 @ 12:00 PM
Bears
Sunday, Nov 24 @ 3:25 PM
49ERS
Thursday, Nov 28 @ 7:20 PM
DOLPHINS
Thursday, Dec 5 @ 7:15 PM
Lions
Sunday, Dec 15 @ 7:20 PM
Seahawks
Monday, Dec 23 @ 7:15 PM
SAINTS
Sunday, Dec 29 @ 3:25 PM
Vikings
Sunday, Jan 5 @ 12:00 PM
BEARS
Sunday, Jan 12 @ 3:30 PM
Eagles
Recent Topics
3h / Green Bay Packers Talk / buckeyepackfan

4-Feb / Green Bay Packers Talk / Martha Careful

4-Feb / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

4-Feb / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

4-Feb / Green Bay Packers Talk / earthquake

4-Feb / Green Bay Packers Talk / earthquake

1-Feb / Green Bay Packers Talk / Martha Careful

1-Feb / Green Bay Packers Talk / wpr

29-Jan / Green Bay Packers Talk / Mucky Tundra

27-Jan / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

25-Jan / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

25-Jan / Green Bay Packers Talk / Martha Careful

25-Jan / Random Babble / Martha Careful

20-Jan / Green Bay Packers Talk / Martha Careful

20-Jan / Green Bay Packers Talk / bboystyle

Headlines
Copyright © 2006 - 2025 PackersHome.com™. All Rights Reserved.