RashaanSalaami
14 years ago
Here's my 3rd down hypothesis. It would go well in the other thread, but this is something I think we as diehard Packers fans should be well aware of.

Well here's where Aaron Rodgers stands this year:
38/73 (52.1%), 28 1st downs, 454 yards, 5 TD, 5 INT, 65.7 QB Rating (Numbers via SI)

Considering we're 33 of 94 on 3rd downs this year according to ESPN, that would mean we're 5/21 while running the ball on 3rd down??????? Holy shit!! I had no idea it was that bad.

Rodgers has the most 3rd down carries (9 for 45 yards), but has converted only 3. Rodgers is 31/82 combined.

Brandon Jackson has 4 carries for 7 yards with 1 1st down. That brings us to 32/86.

John Kuhn has 3 for 9 yards with 1 1st down. Total: 33/89

Grant and Nance have no 3rd down attempts. That leaves 5 more 3rd down failures unaccounted for, which I'm assuming can be pinned on sacks.

Let's quickly look at the breakdown of playcalls on 3rd down: 85 pass-9 run (assumes that Aaron's short yardage runs are called runs, the rest are called pass plays where Aaron takes off himself). If this were true, that means McCarthy is dialing up a pass play on 90.4% of 3rd downs. This shows one of a couple things:
1) We've had an abundant amount of 3rd and longs.
2) McCarthy doesn't trust his running game at all (there's no real reason not to because it's been fairly effective recently)
3) McCarthy is a moron and continues to go to something that's failed again and again.
4) Other teams have scouts charting our tendency and play HEAVY pass knowing we simply won't run. When that happens, your 3rd down rate automatically goes down.

This begs the question a lot of people have asked...what's our breakdown by yardage? Let's look first at Aaron.
0-2: 7/14, 78 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT, 6 1st downs, 1 sack (40% conversion rate)
3-7: 13/30, 164 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT, 12 1st downs, 2 sacks (37.5% conversion rate)
8-10: 7/14, 90 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 5 1st downs, 1 sack (33.3%)
11+: 11/15, 122 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT, 5 1st downs, 1 sack (31.3%)

Of course the other key is looking at short yardage running plays (3rd and 0-2 yards):
Rodgers: 1/2 (1/1 on 4th down)
Jackson: 1/2
Kuhn: 0/2 (1/2 on 4th down)
From this, you can take away 2 things:
1. We're a pathetic 2/6 on 3rd and short and 4/9 altogether on known short yardage situations.
2. Remember that we had 9 runs on 3rd downs (most likely)? That means that 6/9 of those runs were in short yardage situations, which means McCarthy has ran only 3 times on 3rd down and more than 2 yards. When you have that type of playcalling tendency, it's no real surprise that we're so pitiful on 3rd downs. Opposing teams do have scouts charting tendencies and if I found this and presented this in 30 minutes of research, you better believe they have too. Yes Aaron is playing poorly too, but my hypothesis is that McCarthy's playcalling is at the heart of our 3rd down woes.

Anyone have his mailing address? I'm about to send this to him FedEx Express to make sure he knows it. [url=Pro_News/aid=151.html]full article[/url].
blank
Zero2Cool
14 years ago
awesome post
UserPostedImage
yooperfan
14 years ago
1265 Lombardi Avenue
Green Bay, Wisconsin

Great post.
Great work, send it!

Sorry don't know the zip off the top of my head. OK it's 54304
Zero2Cool
14 years ago
I think our play-calling is too tendency filled.
UserPostedImage
nerdmann
14 years ago
I think the throws downfield are too goddamn low percentage.
“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don't do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”
Chutzpah515
14 years ago

I think our play-calling is too tendency filled.

"Zero2Cool" wrote:



I agree. That's a perfect way to explain it.
UserPostedImage
dyeah_gb
14 years ago

I think the throws downfield are too goddamn low percentage.

"nerdmann" wrote:



This is my impression as well. Combine this with miscommunication with all the WRs and it has been tough to move the chains consistently this year.

The game against the Vkings saw some success with run draws from the shotgun and some screen passes and I would like to see some more. The thing that irks me the most is that this was the same conversation that was taking place last year. The second half of the season had much more success due to an effective short game IMO.
The first principle is that you must not fool yourself, and you are the easiest person to fool - R. Feynman
Greg C.
14 years ago
Interesting breakdown, but it doesn't mean anything unless it is compared to the rest of the league and to the Packers' own tendencies in previous years. I wouldn't expect other teams to run the ball very often on third down and more than two yards either, nor do I recall the Packers doing it very often in previous years.

While it is true that other teams have scouts who study these things, the Packers also have scouts who study these things, which makes me skeptical that it can be figured out so easily.

I'm inclined to suspect that the lack of third down success is more the result of blockers not holding their blocks long enough, receivers not getting open enough, the QB not finding the open receiver or throwing the ball accurately enough, and ball carriers not being quick enough to hit the hole on those occasions when there is room to run.
blank
RashaanSalaami
14 years ago

I think the throws downfield are too goddamn low percentage.

"nerdmann" wrote:



This is also a legitimate criticism. The following numbers aren't just 3rd down, but a comparison between this year and last year overall (1st number is 2009, 2nd number is 2010...expressed as a percentage of total pass attempts):

Behind Line: 15.2% VS 16.6%
1-10 Yards: 51.2% VS 43.8%
11-20 Yards: 20.9% VS 26.4%
21-30 Yards: 6.7% VS 7.7%
31-40 Yards: 2.4% VS 2.6%
41+ Yards: 3.3% VS 3.0%

*Note: 2010's numbers do not include the Jets game as ESPN has not updated those split stats yet
blank
dyeah_gb
14 years ago

I think the throws downfield are too goddamn low percentage.

"chrisbozzonerocks" wrote:



This is also a legitimate criticism. The following numbers aren't just 3rd down, but a comparison between this year and last year overall (1st number is 2009, 2nd number is 2010...expressed as a percentage of total pass attempts):

Behind Line: 15.2% VS 16.6%
1-10 Yards: 51.2% VS 43.8%
11-20 Yards: 20.9% VS 26.4%
21-30 Yards: 6.7% VS 7.7%
31-40 Yards: 2.4% VS 2.6%
41+ Yards: 3.3% VS 3.0%

*Note: 2010's numbers do not include the Jets game as ESPN has not updated those split stats yet

"nerdmann" wrote:



+1 for the factual analysis. We need at least 30 seasons to get a true picture of the outliers though 🙂
The first principle is that you must not fool yourself, and you are the easiest person to fool - R. Feynman
Fan Shout
Zero2Cool (7h) : Jaire played in just 34 of a possible 68 games since the start of the 2021 season
Zero2Cool (7h) : reported, but not expected to practice
Zero2Cool (7h) : Jenkins has REPORTED for mandatory camp
Zero2Cool (8h) : I really thought he'd play for Packers.
buckeyepackfan (8h) : Packers releasing Jaire Alexander.
Mucky Tundra (8-Jun) : (Context: he wants his defense to create turnovers)
Mucky Tundra (8-Jun) : Giants DC Shane Bowen tells players to “be a damn pirate."
dfosterf (6-Jun) : Semper fi !
Cheesey (6-Jun) : This is why I have so much respect for those that have gone through battles
Cheesey (6-Jun) : I can't even imagine what that would have been like
wpr (6-Jun) : "Come on, you sons of bitches. Do you want to live forever?"
wpr (6-Jun) : Facing a line of machine guns 2 time medal of Honor recipient, First Sergeant Dan Daly told his men,
wpr (6-Jun) : Another detachment went into the Belleau Wood.
wpr (6-Jun) : On the 6th the Marines took Hill 142 but suffered terrible losses.
wpr (6-Jun) : It’s time to remember dfoster’s Marine brothers in Belleau Wood. The battle went on from June 1-26. Nearly 10,000 casualties.
packerfanoutwest (6-Jun) : Nick Collins and Morgan Burnett have signed with the PACK
packerfanoutwest (6-Jun) : he won't be wearing #12, maybe he will wear number two
packerfanoutwest (6-Jun) : He will fail this season, should have retired
Mucky Tundra (5-Jun) : Thus the cycle of Hall of Fame Packer QBs going to the Jets and then the Vikings is broken
bboystyle (5-Jun) : Rodgers to steelers on 1 year contract
Zero2Cool (5-Jun) : It's the cycle of civilizations. Get lazier, lazier, softer, softer and vanish.
Martha Careful (5-Jun) : great point. every aspect of society, including art, culture and sports has degraded.
dfosterf (4-Jun) : Green Bay sweep meant something to society about stopping pure excellence. We have the tush push now
dfosterf (4-Jun) : We old Martha.
Martha Careful (4-Jun) : *front four
Martha Careful (4-Jun) : Re frout four, I wish we had some Green "People Eaters" or a fearsome foursome
dfosterf (4-Jun) : *directions*
dfosterf (4-Jun) : Just don't ask him for driving direct
dfosterf (4-Jun) : Jim Marshall was an all-time great DE for the Purple People Eaters. Didn't like him. That's a compliment. RIP
Zero2Cool (3-Jun) : ooppppss
Zero2Cool (3-Jun) : “Kenny Clark played all of last season hurt by the way and got surgery to fix it in January”
Mucky Tundra (3-Jun) : @ByRyanWood How much did the injury affect him last fall? “A lot.”
Mucky Tundra (3-Jun) : @ByRyanWood Kenny Clark said he had foot surgery in January. Injured his foot in opener against Eagles and played through it all year.
Zero2Cool (3-Jun) : Golden is wearing guardian cap again. I bet he plays with it on too.
Mucky Tundra (3-Jun) : All the stuff I'm reading from Lions fans are pointing at his toe; he more or less has permanent turf toe in one of his big toes
dfosterf (3-Jun) : Kenny played through it, and a shame he gets little credit for that, imo
dfosterf (3-Jun) : Big men. I hope it's not the undoing of Kenny Clark
dfosterf (3-Jun) : Probably his toe. Pretty much a great center. Toe injuries are brutal to bigen
Mucky Tundra (2-Jun) : Lions All-Pro C Frank Ragnow retires
wpr (30-May) : It's all good.
beast (30-May) : Yeah, and I enjoyed your comments and just attempted to add to it. Sorry if I did it incorrectly.
wpr (30-May) : Beast I never said Henderson was the salt of the earth. Nor even that he was correct. Just quoting the guy.
Zero2Cool (29-May) : What did you do??
Zero2Cool (29-May) : Whoa
beast (29-May) : OMG the website is now all white, even some white on white text
beast (29-May) : Henderson, who admits to taking cocaine during the Super Bowl against the Steelers, might dislike Bradshaw as he lost two Superbowls to him
wpr (28-May) : Hollywood Henderson said Bradshaw “is so dumb, he couldn't spell 'cat' if you spotted him the C and an A.”
Mucky Tundra (28-May) : Cooper stock=BUY BUY BUY
Mucky Tundra (28-May) : Also notes he’s playing with more confidence.
Mucky Tundra (28-May) : @AndyHermanNFL MLF says there was a time last year where Cooper was at 220 pounds. Now he’s at 240 and still flying around.
Please sign in to use Fan Shout
2025 Packers Schedule
Sunday, Sep 7 @ 3:25 PM
LIONS
Thursday, Sep 11 @ 7:15 PM
COMMANDERS
Sunday, Sep 21 @ 12:00 PM
Browns
Sunday, Sep 28 @ 7:20 PM
Cowboys
Sunday, Oct 12 @ 3:25 PM
BENGALS
Sunday, Oct 19 @ 3:25 PM
Cardinals
Sunday, Oct 26 @ 7:20 PM
Steelers
Sunday, Nov 2 @ 12:00 PM
PANTHERS
Monday, Nov 10 @ 7:15 PM
EAGLES
Sunday, Nov 16 @ 12:00 PM
Giants
Sunday, Nov 23 @ 12:00 PM
VIKINGS
Thursday, Nov 27 @ 12:00 PM
Lions
Sunday, Dec 7 @ 12:00 PM
BEARS
Sunday, Dec 14 @ 3:25 PM
Broncos
Friday, Dec 19 @ 11:00 PM
Bears
Friday, Dec 26 @ 11:00 PM
RAVENS
Saturday, Jan 3 @ 11:00 PM
Vikings
Recent Topics
52m / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

2h / Green Bay Packers Talk / Martha Careful

7-Jun / Green Bay Packers Talk / Mucky Tundra

6-Jun / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

5-Jun / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

5-Jun / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

1-Jun / Green Bay Packers Talk / wpr

29-May / Green Bay Packers Talk / Martha Careful

27-May / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

27-May / Random Babble / Martha Careful

24-May / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

23-May / Green Bay Packers Talk / greengold

23-May / Green Bay Packers Talk / earthquake

22-May / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

22-May / Green Bay Packers Talk / bboystyle

Headlines
Copyright © 2006 - 2025 PackersHome.com™. All Rights Reserved.