Here's my 3rd down hypothesis. It would go well in the other thread, but this is something I think we as diehard Packers fans should be well aware of.

Well here's where Aaron Rodgers stands this year:
38/73 (52.1%), 28 1st downs, 454 yards, 5 TD, 5 INT, 65.7 QB Rating (Numbers via SI)

Considering we're 33 of 94 on 3rd downs this year according to ESPN, that would mean we're 5/21 while running the ball on 3rd down??????? Holy shit!! I had no idea it was that bad.

Rodgers has the most 3rd down carries (9 for 45 yards), but has converted only 3. Rodgers is 31/82 combined.

Brandon Jackson has 4 carries for 7 yards with 1 1st down. That brings us to 32/86.

John Kuhn has 3 for 9 yards with 1 1st down. Total: 33/89

Grant and Nance have no 3rd down attempts. That leaves 5 more 3rd down failures unaccounted for, which I'm assuming can be pinned on sacks.

Let's quickly look at the breakdown of playcalls on 3rd down: 85 pass-9 run (assumes that Aaron's short yardage runs are called runs, the rest are called pass plays where Aaron takes off himself). If this were true, that means McCarthy is dialing up a pass play on 90.4% of 3rd downs. This shows one of a couple things:
1) We've had an abundant amount of 3rd and longs.
2) McCarthy doesn't trust his running game at all (there's no real reason not to because it's been fairly effective recently)
3) McCarthy is a moron and continues to go to something that's failed again and again.
4) Other teams have scouts charting our tendency and play HEAVY pass knowing we simply won't run. When that happens, your 3rd down rate automatically goes down.

This begs the question a lot of people have asked...what's our breakdown by yardage? Let's look first at Aaron.
0-2: 7/14, 78 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT, 6 1st downs, 1 sack (40% conversion rate)
3-7: 13/30, 164 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT, 12 1st downs, 2 sacks (37.5% conversion rate)
8-10: 7/14, 90 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 5 1st downs, 1 sack (33.3%)
11+: 11/15, 122 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT, 5 1st downs, 1 sack (31.3%)

Of course the other key is looking at short yardage running plays (3rd and 0-2 yards):
Rodgers: 1/2 (1/1 on 4th down)
Jackson: 1/2
Kuhn: 0/2 (1/2 on 4th down)
From this, you can take away 2 things:
1. We're a pathetic 2/6 on 3rd and short and 4/9 altogether on known short yardage situations.
2. Remember that we had 9 runs on 3rd downs (most likely)? That means that 6/9 of those runs were in short yardage situations, which means McCarthy has ran only 3 times on 3rd down and more than 2 yards. When you have that type of playcalling tendency, it's no real surprise that we're so pitiful on 3rd downs. Opposing teams do have scouts charting tendencies and if I found this and presented this in 30 minutes of research, you better believe they have too. Yes Aaron is playing poorly too, but my hypothesis is that McCarthy's playcalling is at the heart of our 3rd down woes.

Anyone have his mailing address? I'm about to send this to him FedEx Express to make sure he knows it. [url=Pro_News/aid=151.html]full article[/url].

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awesome post

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1265 Lombardi Avenue
Green Bay, Wisconsin

Great post.
Great work, send it!

Sorry don't know the zip off the top of my head. OK it's 54304

I think our play-calling is too tendency filled.

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I think the throws downfield are too goddamn low percentage.

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I agree. That's a perfect way to explain it.

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This is my impression as well. Combine this with miscommunication with all the WRs and it has been tough to move the chains consistently this year.

The game against the Vkings saw some success with run draws from the shotgun and some screen passes and I would like to see some more. The thing that irks me the most is that this was the same conversation that was taking place last year. The second half of the season had much more success due to an effective short game IMO.

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Interesting breakdown, but it doesn't mean anything unless it is compared to the rest of the league and to the Packers' own tendencies in previous years. I wouldn't expect other teams to run the ball very often on third down and more than two yards either, nor do I recall the Packers doing it very often in previous years.

While it is true that other teams have scouts who study these things, the Packers also have scouts who study these things, which makes me skeptical that it can be figured out so easily.

I'm inclined to suspect that the lack of third down success is more the result of blockers not holding their blocks long enough, receivers not getting open enough, the QB not finding the open receiver or throwing the ball accurately enough, and ball carriers not being quick enough to hit the hole on those occasions when there is room to run.

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This is also a legitimate criticism. The following numbers aren't just 3rd down, but a comparison between this year and last year overall (1st number is 2009, 2nd number is 2010...expressed as a percentage of total pass attempts):

Behind Line: 15.2% VS 16.6%
1-10 Yards: 51.2% VS 43.8%
11-20 Yards: 20.9% VS 26.4%
21-30 Yards: 6.7% VS 7.7%
31-40 Yards: 2.4% VS 2.6%
41+ Yards: 3.3% VS 3.0%

*Note: 2010's numbers do not include the Jets game as ESPN has not updated those split stats yet

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+1 for the factual analysis. We need at least 30 seasons to get a true picture of the outliers though 🙂

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