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RashaanSalaami
14 years ago

I think the throws downfield are too goddamn low percentage.

"dyeah_gb" wrote:



This is also a legitimate criticism. The following numbers aren't just 3rd down, but a comparison between this year and last year overall (1st number is 2009, 2nd number is 2010...expressed as a percentage of total pass attempts):

Behind Line: 15.2% VS 16.6%
1-10 Yards: 51.2% VS 43.8%
11-20 Yards: 20.9% VS 26.4%
21-30 Yards: 6.7% VS 7.7%
31-40 Yards: 2.4% VS 2.6%
41+ Yards: 3.3% VS 3.0%

*Note: 2010's numbers do not include the Jets game as ESPN has not updated those split stats yet

"chrisbozzonerocks" wrote:



+1 for the factual analysis. We need at least 30 seasons to get a true picture of the outliers though :)

"nerdmann" wrote:



Maybe that's what Brett Favre's going for? :icon_smile:
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djcubez
14 years ago

Interesting breakdown, but it doesn't mean anything unless it is compared to the rest of the league and to the Packers' own tendencies in previous years. I wouldn't expect other teams to run the ball very often on third down and more than two yards either, nor do I recall the Packers doing it very often in previous years.

While it is true that other teams have scouts who study these things, the Packers also have scouts who study these things, which makes me skeptical that it can be figured out so easily.

I'm inclined to suspect that the lack of third down success is more the result of blockers not holding their blocks long enough, receivers not getting open enough, the QB not finding the open receiver or throwing the ball accurately enough, and ball carriers not being quick enough to hit the hole on those occasions when there is room to run.

"Greg C." wrote:



Good post and good response.

One thing I've noticed a lot--and this can be pinned on both McCarthy and Rodgers--we throw a lot routes that are at least 5 yards past the first-down marker on 3rd and 5 or less. This is something that bothers me. I don't mind having one deep or fly route on a third and short and taking the shot if it's open but the rest of the routes should be breaking or finishing near the first down marker. Obviously I can't watch all the receivers on any given play so I can't specifically blame it on play-calling but it seems Rodgers likes that deep ball on third downs.
PackFanWithTwins
14 years ago
Any idea of how many of the 3rd down attempts, that were not runs, were we lined up in shotgun?
The world needs ditch diggers too Danny!!!
Greg C.
14 years ago

Interesting breakdown, but it doesn't mean anything unless it is compared to the rest of the league and to the Packers' own tendencies in previous years. I wouldn't expect other teams to run the ball very often on third down and more than two yards either, nor do I recall the Packers doing it very often in previous years.

While it is true that other teams have scouts who study these things, the Packers also have scouts who study these things, which makes me skeptical that it can be figured out so easily.

I'm inclined to suspect that the lack of third down success is more the result of blockers not holding their blocks long enough, receivers not getting open enough, the QB not finding the open receiver or throwing the ball accurately enough, and ball carriers not being quick enough to hit the hole on those occasions when there is room to run.

"djcubez" wrote:



Good post and good response.

One thing I've noticed a lot--and this can be pinned on both McCarthy and Rodgers--we throw a lot routes that are at least 5 yards past the first-down marker on 3rd and 5 or less. This is something that bothers me. I don't mind having one deep or fly route on a third and short and taking the shot if it's open but the rest of the routes should be breaking or finishing near the first down marker. Obviously I can't watch all the receivers on any given play so I can't specifically blame it on play-calling but it seems Rodgers likes that deep ball on third downs.

"Greg C." wrote:



I agree that they've run more long routes than they should have on third and short. It doesn't account for all of the problems on third down, or even most of them, but I think it is a factor.
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Greg C.
14 years ago

Any idea of how many of the 3rd down attempts, that were not runs, were we lined up in shotgun?

"PackFanWithTwins" wrote:



Here's a wild guess: All of them? McCarthy loves the shotgun.
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RashaanSalaami
14 years ago

Interesting breakdown, but it doesn't mean anything unless it is compared to the rest of the league and to the Packers' own tendencies in previous years. I wouldn't expect other teams to run the ball very often on third down and more than two yards either, nor do I recall the Packers doing it very often in previous years.

While it is true that other teams have scouts who study these things, the Packers also have scouts who study these things, which makes me skeptical that it can be figured out so easily.

I'm inclined to suspect that the lack of third down success is more the result of blockers not holding their blocks long enough, receivers not getting open enough, the QB not finding the open receiver or throwing the ball accurately enough, and ball carriers not being quick enough to hit the hole on those occasions when there is room to run.

"djcubez" wrote:



Good post and good response.

One thing I've noticed a lot--and this can be pinned on both McCarthy and Rodgers--we throw a lot routes that are at least 5 yards past the first-down marker on 3rd and 5 or less. This is something that bothers me. I don't mind having one deep or fly route on a third and short and taking the shot if it's open but the rest of the routes should be breaking or finishing near the first down marker. Obviously I can't watch all the receivers on any given play so I can't specifically blame it on play-calling but it seems Rodgers likes that deep ball on third downs.

"Greg C." wrote:



Yup, a very good response by Greg C. I don't have the time to do even more research on years past, but it's possible that he's absolutely right. Just thought the research I did brought some very interesting points on Mike's philosophy and how defenses read that.
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Nonstopdrivel
14 years ago
Assuming my hypothesis that Rodgers is experiencing ankle pain is correct, I'd really like to see him lining up under center and taking fewer deep drops more often. More often than not, he seems to be an unprotected target back there.
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    bboystyle (23-Dec) : yes its possible but unlikely. If we do get the 5th, we face the NFCS winner
    Zero2Cool (23-Dec) : Ahh, ok.
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    Zero2Cool (23-Dec) : I mean, unlikely, yes, but mathematically, 5th is possible by what I'm reading.
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    Mucky Tundra (23-Dec) : beast, I would guess ad revenue from more eyes watching tv
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