RashaanSalaami
14 years ago

I think the throws downfield are too goddamn low percentage.

"dyeah_gb" wrote:



This is also a legitimate criticism. The following numbers aren't just 3rd down, but a comparison between this year and last year overall (1st number is 2009, 2nd number is 2010...expressed as a percentage of total pass attempts):

Behind Line: 15.2% VS 16.6%
1-10 Yards: 51.2% VS 43.8%
11-20 Yards: 20.9% VS 26.4%
21-30 Yards: 6.7% VS 7.7%
31-40 Yards: 2.4% VS 2.6%
41+ Yards: 3.3% VS 3.0%

*Note: 2010's numbers do not include the Jets game as ESPN has not updated those split stats yet

"chrisbozzonerocks" wrote:



+1 for the factual analysis. We need at least 30 seasons to get a true picture of the outliers though :)

"nerdmann" wrote:



Maybe that's what Brett Favre's going for? :icon_smile:
blank
djcubez
14 years ago

Interesting breakdown, but it doesn't mean anything unless it is compared to the rest of the league and to the Packers' own tendencies in previous years. I wouldn't expect other teams to run the ball very often on third down and more than two yards either, nor do I recall the Packers doing it very often in previous years.

While it is true that other teams have scouts who study these things, the Packers also have scouts who study these things, which makes me skeptical that it can be figured out so easily.

I'm inclined to suspect that the lack of third down success is more the result of blockers not holding their blocks long enough, receivers not getting open enough, the QB not finding the open receiver or throwing the ball accurately enough, and ball carriers not being quick enough to hit the hole on those occasions when there is room to run.

"Greg C." wrote:



Good post and good response.

One thing I've noticed a lot--and this can be pinned on both McCarthy and Rodgers--we throw a lot routes that are at least 5 yards past the first-down marker on 3rd and 5 or less. This is something that bothers me. I don't mind having one deep or fly route on a third and short and taking the shot if it's open but the rest of the routes should be breaking or finishing near the first down marker. Obviously I can't watch all the receivers on any given play so I can't specifically blame it on play-calling but it seems Rodgers likes that deep ball on third downs.
PackFanWithTwins
14 years ago
Any idea of how many of the 3rd down attempts, that were not runs, were we lined up in shotgun?
The world needs ditch diggers too Danny!!!
Greg C.
14 years ago

Interesting breakdown, but it doesn't mean anything unless it is compared to the rest of the league and to the Packers' own tendencies in previous years. I wouldn't expect other teams to run the ball very often on third down and more than two yards either, nor do I recall the Packers doing it very often in previous years.

While it is true that other teams have scouts who study these things, the Packers also have scouts who study these things, which makes me skeptical that it can be figured out so easily.

I'm inclined to suspect that the lack of third down success is more the result of blockers not holding their blocks long enough, receivers not getting open enough, the QB not finding the open receiver or throwing the ball accurately enough, and ball carriers not being quick enough to hit the hole on those occasions when there is room to run.

"djcubez" wrote:



Good post and good response.

One thing I've noticed a lot--and this can be pinned on both McCarthy and Rodgers--we throw a lot routes that are at least 5 yards past the first-down marker on 3rd and 5 or less. This is something that bothers me. I don't mind having one deep or fly route on a third and short and taking the shot if it's open but the rest of the routes should be breaking or finishing near the first down marker. Obviously I can't watch all the receivers on any given play so I can't specifically blame it on play-calling but it seems Rodgers likes that deep ball on third downs.

"Greg C." wrote:



I agree that they've run more long routes than they should have on third and short. It doesn't account for all of the problems on third down, or even most of them, but I think it is a factor.
blank
Greg C.
14 years ago

Any idea of how many of the 3rd down attempts, that were not runs, were we lined up in shotgun?

"PackFanWithTwins" wrote:



Here's a wild guess: All of them? McCarthy loves the shotgun.
blank
RashaanSalaami
14 years ago

Interesting breakdown, but it doesn't mean anything unless it is compared to the rest of the league and to the Packers' own tendencies in previous years. I wouldn't expect other teams to run the ball very often on third down and more than two yards either, nor do I recall the Packers doing it very often in previous years.

While it is true that other teams have scouts who study these things, the Packers also have scouts who study these things, which makes me skeptical that it can be figured out so easily.

I'm inclined to suspect that the lack of third down success is more the result of blockers not holding their blocks long enough, receivers not getting open enough, the QB not finding the open receiver or throwing the ball accurately enough, and ball carriers not being quick enough to hit the hole on those occasions when there is room to run.

"djcubez" wrote:



Good post and good response.

One thing I've noticed a lot--and this can be pinned on both McCarthy and Rodgers--we throw a lot routes that are at least 5 yards past the first-down marker on 3rd and 5 or less. This is something that bothers me. I don't mind having one deep or fly route on a third and short and taking the shot if it's open but the rest of the routes should be breaking or finishing near the first down marker. Obviously I can't watch all the receivers on any given play so I can't specifically blame it on play-calling but it seems Rodgers likes that deep ball on third downs.

"Greg C." wrote:



Yup, a very good response by Greg C. I don't have the time to do even more research on years past, but it's possible that he's absolutely right. Just thought the research I did brought some very interesting points on Mike's philosophy and how defenses read that.
blank
Nonstopdrivel
14 years ago
Assuming my hypothesis that Rodgers is experiencing ankle pain is correct, I'd really like to see him lining up under center and taking fewer deep drops more often. More often than not, he seems to be an unprotected target back there.
UserPostedImage
Similar Topics
Users browsing this topic
    Fan Shout
    Mucky Tundra (3h) : I could feel my body decomposing in real time when I read that
    Mucky Tundra (3h) : @MIKEYSAINRISTIL Tyler Shough will officially be the last person drafted to the NFL born in the 1900’s
    Mucky Tundra (13h) : saw the tweet, he meant the city
    Mucky Tundra (13h) : Was that for the team or the city?
    Zero2Cool (13h) : Adam Schefter @AdamSchefter · 3m Draft grade is in: Green Bay gets an A. The people, the city, the venue were all superb. NFL Draft’s next
    Zero2Cool (14h) : Matt LaFleur says Jaire Alexander is participating in #Packers offseason program, which has been conducted virtually during this first week
    Zero2Cool (14h) : ✅ ...
    buckeyepackfan (14h) : Check
    Zero2Cool (17h) : Matthew Golden cahanged 81 to 22??
    TheKanataThrilla (19h) : Sam Howell to Vikings...guess no Aaron
    Martha Careful (26-Apr) : 1 round 7 min, with one extra minute if there is a trade. 2nd round 4 minutes, 3rd -3, 2 thereafter IMO
    Martha Careful (26-Apr) : Agree
    dfosterf (26-Apr) : Great idea imo
    dfosterf (26-Apr) : 1st round to 7 minutes with one extension
    dfosterf (26-Apr) : NFL comissioner wants to shorten the 2st
    Mucky Tundra (26-Apr) : @jalenreagors They’re discussing if Sheduer can go back to college on NFL Network LMFAOOOOO
    beast (26-Apr) : Great point Martha
    beast (26-Apr) : Buddy Ryan used to say if a candy bar goes missing, there are two to blame, Rex and Rob 🤪 jk 😁
    Martha Careful (26-Apr) : Bum Phillips used to say there are two ways to get better. Get better players or get players to play better. We have a new DL coach
    Zero2Cool (26-Apr) : Yes. Look at the losses last year. They can win.
    beast (26-Apr) : Can Packers win with their current DL?
    bboystyle (26-Apr) : waiting for a pass rusher.
    dfosterf (25-Apr) : 5 minutes between picks in the 3rd
    dfosterf (25-Apr) : 3rd. Hate this phone
    dfosterf (25-Apr) : 4rd
    dfosterf (25-Apr) : 5 minutes in the 4
    dfosterf (25-Apr) : 7 minutes between picks in the 2nd round
    Martha Careful (25-Apr) : Sorry to bitch, but the headline writers in that section absolutely mislead, or don't know how to read. It is maddening
    Martha Careful (25-Apr) : No thanks. Not a dependable guy to be in the right place and run the right route. Dumb as a box of rocks.
    Zero2Cool (25-Apr) : Losing 2nd round pick for a one year rental, not ideal. Especially a headcase.
    TheKanataThrilla (25-Apr) : Pickens for Jaire may be interesting. Definitely not sure we want Pickens long term.
    dfosterf (25-Apr) : No.Absolutely not
    Zero2Cool (25-Apr) : NO NO NO NO NO NO!!1 🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬
    dhazer (25-Apr) : scenario: Our main prospects are off the board when our pick comes around, do we just throw a 2nd round pick at Pittsburgh for Pickens
    TheKanataThrilla (25-Apr) : Hopefully she had some comfort that her son will be live his dream when she passed away. Sad news.
    Mucky Tundra (25-Apr) : Damn that sucks
    Zero2Cool (25-Apr) : News about Derrick Harmon mom, saddening.
    Zero2Cool (25-Apr) : Mark Murphy: "I predict we will trade up once and down twice."
    beast (25-Apr) : Rip the Packers and getting the fans yelling and booing him
    beast (25-Apr) : Super competitive Bears fan and WWE "superstar" wrestler, Seth Rollins is supposed to announce a Bears pick and absolutely rip Packers
    packerfanoutwest (25-Apr) : Golden
    beast (25-Apr) : I want DT Derrick Harmon, Oregon
    Mucky Tundra (25-Apr) : And I can't be looking at my phone
    Mucky Tundra (25-Apr) : Hey I'm at work lol
    Zero2Cool (24-Apr) : btw, new site chat won't delete auto like
    Zero2Cool (24-Apr) : because everyone left like wimps
    TheKanataThrilla (24-Apr) : I am wondering if there is some type of autoclear when there isn't activity after a certain amount of time.
    Mucky Tundra (24-Apr) : What happened in the chat? Me and Zero posted a few things earlier and they're all gone
    dfosterf (24-Apr) : 10-15 min bs plus flyover
    dfosterf (24-Apr) : Yes
    Please sign in to use Fan Shout
    2024 Packers Schedule
    Friday, Sep 6 @ 7:15 PM
    Eagles
    29 - 34
    Sunday, Sep 15 @ 12:00 PM
    COLTS
    16 - 10
    Sunday, Sep 22 @ 12:00 PM
    Titans
    30 - 14
    Sunday, Sep 29 @ 12:00 PM
    VIKINGS
    29 - 31
    Sunday, Oct 6 @ 3:25 PM
    Rams
    24 - 19
    Sunday, Oct 13 @ 12:00 PM
    CARDINALS
    34 - 13
    Sunday, Oct 20 @ 12:00 PM
    TEXANS
    24 - 22
    Sunday, Oct 27 @ 12:00 PM
    Jaguars
    30 - 27
    Sunday, Nov 3 @ 3:25 PM
    LIONS
    14 - 24
    Sunday, Nov 17 @ 12:00 PM
    Bears
    20 - 19
    Sunday, Nov 24 @ 3:25 PM
    49ERS
    38 - 10
    Thursday, Nov 28 @ 7:20 PM
    DOLPHINS
    30 - 17
    Thursday, Dec 5 @ 7:15 PM
    Lions
    31 - 34
    Sunday, Dec 15 @ 7:20 PM
    Seahawks
    30 - 13
    Monday, Dec 23 @ 7:15 PM
    SAINTS
    34 - 0
    Sunday, Dec 29 @ 3:25 PM
    Vikings
    25 - 27
    Sunday, Jan 5 @ 12:00 PM
    BEARS
    22 - 24
    Recent Topics
    1h / Around The NFL / Martha Careful

    1h / Green Bay Packers Talk / Martha Careful

    11h / Packers Draft Threads / wpr

    11h / Packers Draft Threads / wpr

    11h / Packers Draft Threads / wpr

    11h / Packers Draft Threads / wpr

    11h / Packers Draft Threads / wpr

    11h / Packers Draft Threads / wpr

    12h / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

    14h / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

    19h / Packers Draft Threads / Zero2Cool

    21h / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

    22h / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

    22h / Packers Draft Threads / earthquake

    22h / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

    Headlines
    Copyright © 2006 - 2025 PackersHome.com™. All Rights Reserved.