RashaanSalaami
14 years ago

I think the throws downfield are too goddamn low percentage.

"dyeah_gb" wrote:



This is also a legitimate criticism. The following numbers aren't just 3rd down, but a comparison between this year and last year overall (1st number is 2009, 2nd number is 2010...expressed as a percentage of total pass attempts):

Behind Line: 15.2% VS 16.6%
1-10 Yards: 51.2% VS 43.8%
11-20 Yards: 20.9% VS 26.4%
21-30 Yards: 6.7% VS 7.7%
31-40 Yards: 2.4% VS 2.6%
41+ Yards: 3.3% VS 3.0%

*Note: 2010's numbers do not include the Jets game as ESPN has not updated those split stats yet

"chrisbozzonerocks" wrote:



+1 for the factual analysis. We need at least 30 seasons to get a true picture of the outliers though :)

"nerdmann" wrote:



Maybe that's what Brett Favre's going for? :icon_smile:
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djcubez
14 years ago

Interesting breakdown, but it doesn't mean anything unless it is compared to the rest of the league and to the Packers' own tendencies in previous years. I wouldn't expect other teams to run the ball very often on third down and more than two yards either, nor do I recall the Packers doing it very often in previous years.

While it is true that other teams have scouts who study these things, the Packers also have scouts who study these things, which makes me skeptical that it can be figured out so easily.

I'm inclined to suspect that the lack of third down success is more the result of blockers not holding their blocks long enough, receivers not getting open enough, the QB not finding the open receiver or throwing the ball accurately enough, and ball carriers not being quick enough to hit the hole on those occasions when there is room to run.

"Greg C." wrote:



Good post and good response.

One thing I've noticed a lot--and this can be pinned on both McCarthy and Rodgers--we throw a lot routes that are at least 5 yards past the first-down marker on 3rd and 5 or less. This is something that bothers me. I don't mind having one deep or fly route on a third and short and taking the shot if it's open but the rest of the routes should be breaking or finishing near the first down marker. Obviously I can't watch all the receivers on any given play so I can't specifically blame it on play-calling but it seems Rodgers likes that deep ball on third downs.
PackFanWithTwins
14 years ago
Any idea of how many of the 3rd down attempts, that were not runs, were we lined up in shotgun?
The world needs ditch diggers too Danny!!!
Greg C.
14 years ago

Interesting breakdown, but it doesn't mean anything unless it is compared to the rest of the league and to the Packers' own tendencies in previous years. I wouldn't expect other teams to run the ball very often on third down and more than two yards either, nor do I recall the Packers doing it very often in previous years.

While it is true that other teams have scouts who study these things, the Packers also have scouts who study these things, which makes me skeptical that it can be figured out so easily.

I'm inclined to suspect that the lack of third down success is more the result of blockers not holding their blocks long enough, receivers not getting open enough, the QB not finding the open receiver or throwing the ball accurately enough, and ball carriers not being quick enough to hit the hole on those occasions when there is room to run.

"djcubez" wrote:



Good post and good response.

One thing I've noticed a lot--and this can be pinned on both McCarthy and Rodgers--we throw a lot routes that are at least 5 yards past the first-down marker on 3rd and 5 or less. This is something that bothers me. I don't mind having one deep or fly route on a third and short and taking the shot if it's open but the rest of the routes should be breaking or finishing near the first down marker. Obviously I can't watch all the receivers on any given play so I can't specifically blame it on play-calling but it seems Rodgers likes that deep ball on third downs.

"Greg C." wrote:



I agree that they've run more long routes than they should have on third and short. It doesn't account for all of the problems on third down, or even most of them, but I think it is a factor.
blank
Greg C.
14 years ago

Any idea of how many of the 3rd down attempts, that were not runs, were we lined up in shotgun?

"PackFanWithTwins" wrote:



Here's a wild guess: All of them? McCarthy loves the shotgun.
blank
RashaanSalaami
14 years ago

Interesting breakdown, but it doesn't mean anything unless it is compared to the rest of the league and to the Packers' own tendencies in previous years. I wouldn't expect other teams to run the ball very often on third down and more than two yards either, nor do I recall the Packers doing it very often in previous years.

While it is true that other teams have scouts who study these things, the Packers also have scouts who study these things, which makes me skeptical that it can be figured out so easily.

I'm inclined to suspect that the lack of third down success is more the result of blockers not holding their blocks long enough, receivers not getting open enough, the QB not finding the open receiver or throwing the ball accurately enough, and ball carriers not being quick enough to hit the hole on those occasions when there is room to run.

"djcubez" wrote:



Good post and good response.

One thing I've noticed a lot--and this can be pinned on both McCarthy and Rodgers--we throw a lot routes that are at least 5 yards past the first-down marker on 3rd and 5 or less. This is something that bothers me. I don't mind having one deep or fly route on a third and short and taking the shot if it's open but the rest of the routes should be breaking or finishing near the first down marker. Obviously I can't watch all the receivers on any given play so I can't specifically blame it on play-calling but it seems Rodgers likes that deep ball on third downs.

"Greg C." wrote:



Yup, a very good response by Greg C. I don't have the time to do even more research on years past, but it's possible that he's absolutely right. Just thought the research I did brought some very interesting points on Mike's philosophy and how defenses read that.
blank
Nonstopdrivel
14 years ago
Assuming my hypothesis that Rodgers is experiencing ankle pain is correct, I'd really like to see him lining up under center and taking fewer deep drops more often. More often than not, he seems to be an unprotected target back there.
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Mucky Tundra (19h) : Cowboys 1st round pick Tyler Booker will indeed be bringing his pet turtle to Dallas with him
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Zero2Cool (19h) : Simmons put up an emoji with cheese.
beast (20h) : Not sure anyone is interested in Isaiah Simmons... Collin Oliver might of taken his potential slot
beast (20h) : I'm going with Jax Ulbrich is not telling the whole truth... he accidentally came across it? Why would a defensive coordinator have a QB #?
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Mucky Tundra (21h) : Colts 1st round TE Tyler Warren also got prank called, was that Jax Ulbrich as well?
Zero2Cool (21h) : Jax Ulbrich, Jeff Ulbrich’s son, released an apology for his role in the Shedeur Sanders prank call.
Martha Careful (21h) : apparently he did not participate in practice or play on the east west shrine game nor the NFL combine. The kid was a mediocre spoiled brat
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Zero2Cool (22h) : Shough is the guy who missed guys at combine isn't he?
beast (22h) : It's not official until I'm dead! I have a chance still! (Not really)
Mucky Tundra (27-Apr) : I could feel my body decomposing in real time when I read that
Mucky Tundra (27-Apr) : @MIKEYSAINRISTIL Tyler Shough will officially be the last person drafted to the NFL born in the 1900’s
Mucky Tundra (26-Apr) : saw the tweet, he meant the city
Mucky Tundra (26-Apr) : Was that for the team or the city?
Zero2Cool (26-Apr) : Adam Schefter @AdamSchefter · 3m Draft grade is in: Green Bay gets an A. The people, the city, the venue were all superb. NFL Draft’s next
Zero2Cool (26-Apr) : Matt LaFleur says Jaire Alexander is participating in #Packers offseason program, which has been conducted virtually during this first week
Zero2Cool (26-Apr) : ✅ ...
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Zero2Cool (26-Apr) : Matthew Golden cahanged 81 to 22??
TheKanataThrilla (26-Apr) : Sam Howell to Vikings...guess no Aaron
Martha Careful (26-Apr) : 1 round 7 min, with one extra minute if there is a trade. 2nd round 4 minutes, 3rd -3, 2 thereafter IMO
Martha Careful (26-Apr) : Agree
dfosterf (26-Apr) : Great idea imo
dfosterf (26-Apr) : 1st round to 7 minutes with one extension
dfosterf (26-Apr) : NFL comissioner wants to shorten the 2st
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beast (26-Apr) : Great point Martha
beast (26-Apr) : Buddy Ryan used to say if a candy bar goes missing, there are two to blame, Rex and Rob 🤪 jk 😁
Martha Careful (26-Apr) : Bum Phillips used to say there are two ways to get better. Get better players or get players to play better. We have a new DL coach
Zero2Cool (26-Apr) : Yes. Look at the losses last year. They can win.
beast (26-Apr) : Can Packers win with their current DL?
bboystyle (26-Apr) : waiting for a pass rusher.
dfosterf (25-Apr) : 5 minutes between picks in the 3rd
dfosterf (25-Apr) : 3rd. Hate this phone
dfosterf (25-Apr) : 4rd
dfosterf (25-Apr) : 5 minutes in the 4
dfosterf (25-Apr) : 7 minutes between picks in the 2nd round
Martha Careful (25-Apr) : Sorry to bitch, but the headline writers in that section absolutely mislead, or don't know how to read. It is maddening
Martha Careful (25-Apr) : No thanks. Not a dependable guy to be in the right place and run the right route. Dumb as a box of rocks.
Zero2Cool (25-Apr) : Losing 2nd round pick for a one year rental, not ideal. Especially a headcase.
TheKanataThrilla (25-Apr) : Pickens for Jaire may be interesting. Definitely not sure we want Pickens long term.
dfosterf (25-Apr) : No.Absolutely not
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