RashaanSalaami
14 years ago

I think the throws downfield are too goddamn low percentage.

"dyeah_gb" wrote:



This is also a legitimate criticism. The following numbers aren't just 3rd down, but a comparison between this year and last year overall (1st number is 2009, 2nd number is 2010...expressed as a percentage of total pass attempts):

Behind Line: 15.2% VS 16.6%
1-10 Yards: 51.2% VS 43.8%
11-20 Yards: 20.9% VS 26.4%
21-30 Yards: 6.7% VS 7.7%
31-40 Yards: 2.4% VS 2.6%
41+ Yards: 3.3% VS 3.0%

*Note: 2010's numbers do not include the Jets game as ESPN has not updated those split stats yet

"chrisbozzonerocks" wrote:



+1 for the factual analysis. We need at least 30 seasons to get a true picture of the outliers though :)

"nerdmann" wrote:



Maybe that's what Brett Favre's going for? :icon_smile:
blank
djcubez
14 years ago

Interesting breakdown, but it doesn't mean anything unless it is compared to the rest of the league and to the Packers' own tendencies in previous years. I wouldn't expect other teams to run the ball very often on third down and more than two yards either, nor do I recall the Packers doing it very often in previous years.

While it is true that other teams have scouts who study these things, the Packers also have scouts who study these things, which makes me skeptical that it can be figured out so easily.

I'm inclined to suspect that the lack of third down success is more the result of blockers not holding their blocks long enough, receivers not getting open enough, the QB not finding the open receiver or throwing the ball accurately enough, and ball carriers not being quick enough to hit the hole on those occasions when there is room to run.

"Greg C." wrote:



Good post and good response.

One thing I've noticed a lot--and this can be pinned on both McCarthy and Rodgers--we throw a lot routes that are at least 5 yards past the first-down marker on 3rd and 5 or less. This is something that bothers me. I don't mind having one deep or fly route on a third and short and taking the shot if it's open but the rest of the routes should be breaking or finishing near the first down marker. Obviously I can't watch all the receivers on any given play so I can't specifically blame it on play-calling but it seems Rodgers likes that deep ball on third downs.
PackFanWithTwins
14 years ago
Any idea of how many of the 3rd down attempts, that were not runs, were we lined up in shotgun?
The world needs ditch diggers too Danny!!!
Greg C.
14 years ago

Interesting breakdown, but it doesn't mean anything unless it is compared to the rest of the league and to the Packers' own tendencies in previous years. I wouldn't expect other teams to run the ball very often on third down and more than two yards either, nor do I recall the Packers doing it very often in previous years.

While it is true that other teams have scouts who study these things, the Packers also have scouts who study these things, which makes me skeptical that it can be figured out so easily.

I'm inclined to suspect that the lack of third down success is more the result of blockers not holding their blocks long enough, receivers not getting open enough, the QB not finding the open receiver or throwing the ball accurately enough, and ball carriers not being quick enough to hit the hole on those occasions when there is room to run.

"djcubez" wrote:



Good post and good response.

One thing I've noticed a lot--and this can be pinned on both McCarthy and Rodgers--we throw a lot routes that are at least 5 yards past the first-down marker on 3rd and 5 or less. This is something that bothers me. I don't mind having one deep or fly route on a third and short and taking the shot if it's open but the rest of the routes should be breaking or finishing near the first down marker. Obviously I can't watch all the receivers on any given play so I can't specifically blame it on play-calling but it seems Rodgers likes that deep ball on third downs.

"Greg C." wrote:



I agree that they've run more long routes than they should have on third and short. It doesn't account for all of the problems on third down, or even most of them, but I think it is a factor.
blank
Greg C.
14 years ago

Any idea of how many of the 3rd down attempts, that were not runs, were we lined up in shotgun?

"PackFanWithTwins" wrote:



Here's a wild guess: All of them? McCarthy loves the shotgun.
blank
RashaanSalaami
14 years ago

Interesting breakdown, but it doesn't mean anything unless it is compared to the rest of the league and to the Packers' own tendencies in previous years. I wouldn't expect other teams to run the ball very often on third down and more than two yards either, nor do I recall the Packers doing it very often in previous years.

While it is true that other teams have scouts who study these things, the Packers also have scouts who study these things, which makes me skeptical that it can be figured out so easily.

I'm inclined to suspect that the lack of third down success is more the result of blockers not holding their blocks long enough, receivers not getting open enough, the QB not finding the open receiver or throwing the ball accurately enough, and ball carriers not being quick enough to hit the hole on those occasions when there is room to run.

"djcubez" wrote:



Good post and good response.

One thing I've noticed a lot--and this can be pinned on both McCarthy and Rodgers--we throw a lot routes that are at least 5 yards past the first-down marker on 3rd and 5 or less. This is something that bothers me. I don't mind having one deep or fly route on a third and short and taking the shot if it's open but the rest of the routes should be breaking or finishing near the first down marker. Obviously I can't watch all the receivers on any given play so I can't specifically blame it on play-calling but it seems Rodgers likes that deep ball on third downs.

"Greg C." wrote:



Yup, a very good response by Greg C. I don't have the time to do even more research on years past, but it's possible that he's absolutely right. Just thought the research I did brought some very interesting points on Mike's philosophy and how defenses read that.
blank
Nonstopdrivel
14 years ago
Assuming my hypothesis that Rodgers is experiencing ankle pain is correct, I'd really like to see him lining up under center and taking fewer deep drops more often. More often than not, he seems to be an unprotected target back there.
UserPostedImage
Similar Topics
Users browsing this topic
    Fan Shout
    dfosterf (9h) : It's my one day deal complaint dept. on shareholder meeting day
    dfosterf (10h) : Probably a homer access credential intimidation kinda thing
    dfosterf (10h) : Meathead "journalists" skip this, concentrating on operational revenue when convenient. They switch when net revenue is more favorable.
    dfosterf (10h) : Resulting in an actual drop of net revenue of 12.5%. She is from Minnesota. Just sayin'
    dfosterf (11h) : Any plans to hold Maureen Smith (CFO) accountable for a 95% drop in investment revenue?
    Mucky Tundra (11h) : In your face, HBO!
    Mucky Tundra (11h) : @ByRyanWood Mark Murphy: “A great source of pride of mine is that we were never on Hard Knocks.”
    Mucky Tundra (11h) : *years
    Mucky Tundra (11h) : @mattschneidman Mark Murphy says he anticipates “many Packers games” being played in Germany, Ireland and/or the U.K. over the next 5-10 yea
    dfosterf (11h) : *cafeteria* I have hit my head also, so I sympathize
    dfosterf (11h) : Possibly hit his head leaning into the glass protecting the food in the cafateria
    dfosterf (11h) : Maybe a low flying drone
    dfosterf (11h) : Did Savion Williams run into a goalpost or something?
    Mucky Tundra (12h) : also, no bueno when a guy starts getting concussions right off the bat in his career
    Zero2Cool (12h) : Concussion is worse. Banks probably vet off day via back booboo claim
    Mucky Tundra (14h) : @AndyHermanNFL Jordy Nelson out at camp today. No word if he’s in play for one of the two open roster spots ; )
    dfosterf (15h) : Is that better or worse than Banks bad back?
    Zero2Cool (15h) : Savion concussion ... not good.
    packerfanoutwest (24-Jul) : Aaron Rodgers’s first pass of first team period was picked off
    Mucky Tundra (24-Jul) : tbh I didn't hear of his passing
    Zero2Cool (24-Jul) : Cosby Show. Malcom Jamal Warner I think is real name
    Mucky Tundra (24-Jul) : I was thinking of Ozzy and Hulk
    Mucky Tundra (24-Jul) : Who's Theo?
    Zero2Cool (24-Jul) : How is Theo alliteration?
    Mucky Tundra (24-Jul) : Bad week for people whose names are alliterations
    Zero2Cool (24-Jul) : Hulk Hogan gone too.
    Zero2Cool (24-Jul) : Oh, it's toe injury
    Zero2Cool (24-Jul) : Hope it's not serious. that would stink
    dfosterf (24-Jul) : Sounds like an ankle not a knee for Fields
    dfosterf (24-Jul) : Ya Flaccp on Browns
    Zero2Cool (24-Jul) : Maybe Tyrod Taylor instead
    Zero2Cool (24-Jul) : He's on Browns, right?
    dfosterf (24-Jul) : They would probably go with Flacco is my guess if Fields out
    dfosterf (24-Jul) : Fleece 'em again!
    Zero2Cool (24-Jul) : Malik Willis might be someone Jets come after
    packerfanoutwest (24-Jul) : Packers introduce 1923-inspired classic uniform, leather-look helmet
    Zero2Cool (23-Jul) : Both LB Quay Walker and Rookie DB Micah Robinson have passed their physicals
    Zero2Cool (23-Jul) : Happy to see site feels more snappy snappy
    Zero2Cool (23-Jul) : No sir. I did not.
    dfosterf (23-Jul) : You didn't get free childcare when you were at work?
    wpr (23-Jul) : These guys make hundreds of thousands of dollars a year. Pay for their own childcare.
    dfosterf (23-Jul) : 2nd issue. Number 1 issue was no gameday childcare. 1 of 3 teams not providing it
    Zero2Cool (23-Jul) : Suppose if locker room is main issue, we sitting pretty
    wpr (23-Jul) : I thought so Mucky. In those useless player polls GB always rates high overall. Locker is a part of it.
    Mucky Tundra (23-Jul) : Wasn't the locker room just updated like 6 or 7 years ago?
    Zero2Cool (23-Jul) : I have forum updated on different site. We'll see how this one goes before going to that
    Zero2Cool (23-Jul) : Elgton Jenkins has a back injury, is expect to end contract dispute
    wpr (23-Jul) : It's funny the PA complained about the locker room. It wasn't that long ago it was top shelf. Things change in a hurry.
    wpr (23-Jul) : The site is much more better.
    Zero2Cool (23-Jul) : NFLPA report said Packers lockerroom needed upgrade. Whining bout where you change?
    Please sign in to use Fan Shout
    2025 Packers Schedule
    Sunday, Sep 7 @ 3:25 PM
    LIONS
    Thursday, Sep 11 @ 7:15 PM
    COMMANDERS
    Sunday, Sep 21 @ 12:00 PM
    Browns
    Sunday, Sep 28 @ 7:20 PM
    Cowboys
    Sunday, Oct 12 @ 3:25 PM
    BENGALS
    Sunday, Oct 19 @ 3:25 PM
    Cardinals
    Sunday, Oct 26 @ 7:20 PM
    Steelers
    Sunday, Nov 2 @ 12:00 PM
    PANTHERS
    Monday, Nov 10 @ 7:15 PM
    EAGLES
    Sunday, Nov 16 @ 12:00 PM
    Giants
    Sunday, Nov 23 @ 12:00 PM
    VIKINGS
    Thursday, Nov 27 @ 12:00 PM
    Lions
    Sunday, Dec 7 @ 12:00 PM
    BEARS
    Sunday, Dec 14 @ 3:25 PM
    Broncos
    Friday, Dec 19 @ 11:00 PM
    Bears
    Friday, Dec 26 @ 11:00 PM
    RAVENS
    Saturday, Jan 3 @ 11:00 PM
    Vikings
    Recent Topics
    11h / Around The NFL / Mucky Tundra

    11h / Green Bay Packers Talk / Mucky Tundra

    18h / Green Bay Packers Talk / TheKanataThrilla

    21h / Green Bay Packers Talk / dfosterf

    25-Jul / Around The NFL / beast

    24-Jul / Green Bay Packers Talk / Martha Careful

    24-Jul / Around The NFL / beast

    24-Jul / Green Bay Packers Talk / Mucky Tundra

    23-Jul / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

    23-Jul / Green Bay Packers Talk / wpr

    22-Jul / Random Babble / Zero2Cool

    22-Jul / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

    22-Jul / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

    20-Jul / Green Bay Packers Talk / Mucky Tundra

    20-Jul / Green Bay Packers Talk / Mucky Tundra

    Headlines
    Copyright © 2006 - 2025 PackersHome.com™. All Rights Reserved.