musccy
14 years ago
Zero, though it didn't appear to be the case w/ the bears, westbrook did stop at the 1 yard line vs. the giants that one year...you could have been right.

Also, I was wrong on the gould stats. According to ESPN, including PATs, he's 219/220 from within 30 yards. So there was a 0.45% chance that Gould misses that kick last night!
dfosterf
14 years ago
I knew right away who would "tackle" this problem with some specific numbers, and sure enough... AdvancedNFLstats---Subject at hand 


I already gave my opinions on the matter, but thought some might be interested in the probabilities.
Zero2Cool
14 years ago

Zero, though it didn't appear to be the case w/ the bears, westbrook did stop at the 1 yard line vs. the giants that one year...you could have been right.

Also, I was wrong on the gould stats. According to ESPN, including PATs, he's 219/220 from within 30 yards. So there was a 0.45% chance that Gould misses that kick last night!

"musccy" wrote:



lol there was no way in my mind he was going to miss the kick within 30 yards. I was looking for a strip or hoping the Bears got silly cocky an threw one up that we picked. I think we had two strips from them already in the game, but failed to fall on it.
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musccy
14 years ago
although I still think your odds are better going 80 with some time than a strip, I think that's a much more plausible justification. Woody had stripped twice I think to that point
Wade
  • Wade
  • Veteran Member
14 years ago

Both Wade and Zero are deliberately missing the point for philosophical reasons. It's irritating.

So what if you "shouldn't" let the opposing team score? If it materially increases your chances of winning the game, that is the correct move. It's analogous to a strategic retreat in warfare -- or perhaps even closer to a "demasking procedure" following a gas attack, in which you force one of your soldiers to take off his mask to determine whether or not chemical agents are still in the area. It's very possible you will kill one of your own men to ensure the safety of the rest, but if your unit is thereby able to continue the mission, you consider it a justifiable loss.

Yes, letting the Bears score would have put the Packers down by 7 instead of by 3, but it would have dramatically increased their probability of tying the game. This is indisputable. I can't believe we're still arguing about this.

"Nonstopdrivel" wrote:



Sigh. I'm not missing the point.

But I suppose I am making a philosophical point. All good points have a philosophical basis, after all. :)

The analogy to war is not on point. War is a different game. In war you die. In football you just go home with fewer points.

If I were in charge of a war -- and let us all thank God that *that* will never happen -- playing probabilities actually makes a lot of sense to me. Losing in war is too damn expensive to not play every card you can. And, in fact, apart from some bits about "crimes against humanity" and such, I wouldn't much care what people said were the rules for conduct. Because war is a nasty thing that should be pursued only if the enemy needs to be destroyed. (For situations short of this, we have nonfatal methods of scumsucking politics, to paraphrase Clausewitz.)

But when it comes to football, the objectives aren't destruction of the enemy. The objectives are striving to show you are the better team at beating up on the other side.

Football is not a "war" game. Chess is a war game.

Both are fun. I enjoy playing both. But IMO they are games different in kind.

Football is both more civilized and more barbaric. It is more civilized in that it keeps the exertion of violence limited via various rules of "fair play". But in a way it is also more barbaric, because it remains a game that is not just about "winning" but about "beating the other guy."

War can be played probabilistically (so long as you understand the rest of it better than, say, McNamara's band of idiots or your average Obamoid). War, being even more barbaric than football, can be played whatever way works to destroy the enemy and take ownership over the board.
And do not be conformed to this world, but be transformed by the renewing of your mind, that you may prove what is that good and acceptable and perfect will of God.
Romans 12:2 (NKJV)
Zero2Cool
14 years ago

Both Wade and Zero are deliberately missing the point for philosophical reasons. It's irritating.

"Nonstopdrivel" wrote:



You need to get over yourself.

I (and Wade probably as well) have stated respects on both letting them score and fighting to the end.

My standing was tainted by my complete frustration and annoyance of us keeping the same players who commit the same penalties every year. This is one aspect about mm that I absolutely can not stand.

If we had tied the game, we'd have a 50/50 chance of winning the kickoff. And if you watched, we weren't getting much our way there. Both offenses were moving the ball with ease, albeit our defense was aiding their offense, lol.

It would have been more exciting to let them score and see what our offense can do, but if you're gonna use 'math' as reasoning that we should have let them score, that's short sighted in my irritable opinion.

As they say with rival games like this, you can throw the records out.
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Nonstopdrivel
14 years ago

You need to get over yourself.

"Zero2Cool" wrote:



I tried -- I really tried -- but just as I was about to succeed in this unnatural feat, I fell flat on my face. Now my nose is bleeding.

Damn you and your colorful metaphors. 😛
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Zero2Cool
14 years ago

You need to get over yourself.

"Nonstopdrivel" wrote:



I tried, but I fell flat on my face. Now my nose is bleeding. :D

"Zero2Cool" wrote:



Son of a ... that happened to me too!!!

I just stick my index fingers up each nostril and voila!
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Timmons
14 years ago

I want James Campen and Jerry Fontenot on the street no later than midnight tonight. I don't care if they have to hire a bunch of movers to toss their shit on the street. If someone happens to shoot Tauscher and Clifton in the face, I won't grieve too deeply either.

As for Mike McCarthy's decision to challenge that play . . . he deserves a one-game suspension for that stroke of brilliance alone.

"Nonstopdrivel" wrote:



Nonstop,
This is my favorite post of the month.
blank
Zero2Cool
14 years ago

McCarthy further explains his decision to not let the Bears score 

Packers coach Mike McCarthy has faced intense scrutiny for his decision not to allow the Bears to score a touchdown late in Monday night's loss at Soldier Field.

McCarthy didn't help himself by initially explaining that he didn't let the Bears score because he thought Bears kicker Robbie Gould would miss a 19-yard field goal.

McCarthy elaborated on the situation during a Thursday afternoon interview with Adam Schein and Rich Gannon of The Sirius Blitz on Sirius NFL Radio.

"It was definitely an option," McCarthy said. "You have two options there and we chose to play defense. And I understand when you make decisions in key situations in games and it doesn't work out in your favor you are judged accordingly. But you have two options in that particular situation and we chose to play defense."

Gannon then offered up what would have been a much better explanation from McCarthy. "Just for your information," Gannon said, "Coach Madden was on your side. He talked about it. He said everything in your fabric, in your DNA as a coach, tells you to go out and stop them, not let them score."

"Well, no question," McCarthy said, "but I do understand the percentages of your other option, in particular with Aaron Rodgers and our offense. It's definitely something that you have to consider. . . . If you go back and look at the whole time frame it really falls right in that area. Two timeouts, after the pass interference, and then they take the ball down to the I guess it was the one or two yard line, you make a decision there I think you'd have been close to almost between 50 seconds to a minute left. We were definitely in the time range as far as making that decision."

So why wasn't the decision made? Part of the problem is that, when the events are unfolding in real time, coaches don't always think as clearly as they otherwise could or should. Fear of criticism also can be a significant factor.

And we keep coming back to Madden's rationale for not allowing the other team to score. It cuts against the grain of everything every player or coach ever learns. Even when it's the right thing to do, there's still something about it that seems wrong.

But not nearly as wrong as suggesting with a straight face a coach believes a reliable kicker would miss a 19-yard field goal.


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