Power Rankings - Through Week 11

1. New England 13.14
2. New Orleans 13.04
3. Indianapolis 11.26
4. Minnesota 8.38
5. Baltimore 8.29
6. Cincinatti 5.77
7. San Diego 5.71
8. Atlanta 5.07
9. Philadelphia 5.00
10. Dallas 4.20
11. NY Jets 3.85
12. Arizona 3.75
13. NY Giants 3.50
14. Green Bay 3.36
15. Miami 3.26
16. Pittsburgh 3.21
17. Houston 0.93
18. Denver 0.62
19. San Francisco 0.47
20. Carolina -1.05
21. Chicago -1.72
22. Seattle -3.43
23. Tennessee -3.67
24. Jacksonville -6.38
25. Washington -6.59
26. Kansas City -6.72
27. Tampa Bay -9.51
28. Buffalo -9.63
29. Oakland -10.65
30. Detroit -11.12
31. Cleveland -12.54
32. St. Louis -13.19

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Power Rankings Through Week 12:

1. New Orleans 14.48
2. New England 11.83
3. Indianapolis 10.75
4. Minnesota 10.04
5. Baltimore 8.48
6. San Diego 6.78
7. Cincinnati 4.69
8. Green Bay 4.61
9. Dallas 4.07
10. Philadelphia 4.04
11. Pittsburgh 3.85
12. NY Jets 3.24
13. Atlanta 3.04
14. Denver 2.30
15. Arizona 2.14
16. San Francisco 1.65
17. NY Giants 1.45
18. Houston 1.25
19. Miami 0.52
20. Carolina -1.45
21. Chicago -2.64
22. Tennessee -3.33
23. Seattle -3.71
24. Washington -5.79
25. Jacksonville -7.16
26. Buffalo -7.60
27. Kansas City -8.67
28. Tampa Bay -9.17
29. Oakland -10.72
30. Detroit -11.22
31. Cleveland -11.47
32. St. Louis -12.94

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Interestingly, the difference between 1 and 32 is slowly but surely compressing. After week 7, 35.67 points separated top from bottom. Now only 27.42 points separate them. That's a drop of 23% in 5 weeks. I'll be curious to see what the differential is after the season is complete.

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I think it will continue to compress, simply because of the system I use. Teams' performances are judged based on the history of their opponents. It's easier to climb farther against good teams or fall farther against bad teams... if that makes any sense.

For example, if the Saints beat the Rams 31-10... their power ratings will probably stay about the same, because it's "what's expected". Any closer of a finish, like the last time those two teams played, and there will be a decrease in the range between #1 and #32.

Green Bay dropped to 18 or 19 or something after losing to TB, and it's taken 3 wins (and some losses by some decent teams) to climb back up.

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Ok I tweaked my system with a very simple fix. W/L differential was added to the calculated scores.

Week 13 Power Rankings

1. New Orleans 25.28
2. Indianapolis 21.97
3. Minnesota 16.55
4. New England 12.50
5. San Diego 12.16
6. Cincinnati 10.35
7. Philadelphia 10.08
8. Green Bay 9.70
9. Arizona 8.05
10. Denver 7.82
11. Dallas 7.65
12. Baltimore 7.25
13. NY Giants 4.52
14. NY Jets 2.75
15. Pittsburgh 2.15
16. Atlanta 1.25
17. Miami 1.15
18. San Francisco -1.09
19. Houston -1.44
20. Carolina -3.76
21. Jacksonville -4.12
22. Seattle -4.99
23. Tennessee -5.02
24. Chicago -5.11
25. Washington -9.96
26. Buffalo -10.93
27. Oakland -13.15
28. Kansas City -15.89
29. Detroit -18.75
30. Tampa Bay -19.65
31. Cleveland -20.72
32. St. Louis -22.89

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I think, in the interest of fairness, you should publish a comparison of this week and perhaps the last two weeks' power rankings, so we can see how much the tweak affected the results.

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Fairness? For who? :lol: That's just more work for the guy doing this. Ok here are the untweaked results for this week (I don't have the ones for weeks prior) with tweaked results in parentheses:

1. New Orleans 13.28 (1)
2. New England 10.50 (4)
3. Indianapolis 9.97 (2)
4. Minnesota 8.55 (3)
5. Baltimore 7.25 (12)
6. San Diego 6.16 (5)
7. Philadelphia 6.08 (7)
8. Green Bay 5.70 (8)
9. Cincinnati 4.35 (6)
10. Arizona 4.05 (9)
11. Denver 3.82 (10)
12. Dallas 3.65 (11)
13. NY Jets 2.75 (14)
14. NY Giants 2.52 (13)
15. Pittsburgh 2.15 (15)
16. Atlanta 1.25 (16)
17. Miami 1.15 (17)
18. San Francisco 0.91 (18)
19. Houston 0.56 (19)
20. Carolina -1.76 (20)
21. Seattle -2.99 (22)
22. Tennessee -3.02 (23)
23. Chicago -3.11 (24)
24. Washington -3.96 (25)
25. Jacksonville -6.12 (21)
26. Buffalo -6.93 (26)
27. Oakland -9.15 (27)
28. Tampa Bay -9.65 (30)
29. Kansas City -9.89 (28)
30. Cleveland -10.72 (31)
31. Detroit -10.75 (29)
32. St. Louis -12.89 (32)

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Thanks. It appears most of the significant differences are near either end of the spectrum.

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Yeah, I consider Baltimore and New England to be the two largest shifts. I think the old system didn't factor in wins in close games enough, and credited too many points for blowout victories. New England's 59-0 win moved them up substantially, and really, how important was it?
This addition to the calculation seems to work. I didn't want to see Indy under NE, and I didn't like Baltimore so damn high.

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I still have the feeling that NE is too high, but that's more of a gut feeling than anything else.

Overall, your rankings do look a lot more accurate now. At least, in my perspective, of course.