This whole discussion started around the comment that Favre falls off at the end of the year as if this was unique to Favre. My point was that most QBs tend to fall off in the 2nd half of the season, and the ones who don't tend to be warm weather or dome QBs. The numbers bear that out. I absolutely want to include the late season dome/warm games because the whole point of the discussion was about late season collapses. That's why I'm looking at late season statistics.

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Ahh, so you're saying LATE SEASON collapses, NOT INCLUDING the weather. I gotcha now.


Now take this from someone who analyzes QB play and is a huge Favre fan. The cold weather, and wear and tear is what caused Favre to decline in the later games of the season.

Favre said as much himself. So, you can dismiss my observations all you want, but he himself also acknowledged it.


Here's why I said Favre going to the Vikings made sense. He doesn't have to face the cold nearly as much. He doesn't have to carry the team. He'll be fresher down the stretch.

Those are reasons why I have said, repeatedly, Favre will not collapse this year. He's not playing in cold and he's not being asked to shoulder the team in and out every week. Some blind folks will say Favre has carried them, which is not true. If you take Adrian out of the mix and the top five ranked defense, then Favre has loads of pressure to carry the team.


Dinking and dunking all day while theres eight in the box to stop the run and you have a lead cuz your defense is stout... is not carrying a team.




Favre will not collapse this year.

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I have never said every bad performance by Favre was due to cold weather games. What I have been trying to show is that since Favre played the majority of his home games in an outdoor cold-weather stadium, we should expect his numbers to go down every year in general. We see this with QBs who play for outdoor teams in general. We can also see that warm weather teams or dome teams don't have the same drop in QB play, with some even improving in general.

Why would I want all cold weather games? Some cold weather games happen before the second half of the year (Ten-NE this year, for example). We're specifically talking about late season drops in performance. Those <40 stats do not filter out early season performance. You can't ignore some late season data, and you certainly can't include early season data, to have a discussion about late season collapses. If we want to discuss cold weather performance, let's have a separate thread for that.

The comment is being tossed out there that Favre has horrible drop-offs, as if this is unique to him. I'm still waiting for someone to provide some data showing that other QBs do not also drop as the season progresses. The first question that everyone keeps dancing around is whether Favre is unique in dropping off. I've provided data that shows most top QBs drop in the 2nd half. The question then becomes is Favre's drop so far beyond the norm as to make it notable? The only data we have for all QBs so far is stats showing the first half/second half split. We don't have data yet that shows all of those QBs' last 5 games of the season for the last 4 seasons like we do Favre.

So why do QB performances fall in the second half in general? The data would suggest it has to do with where they are playing the majority of their games since warm/dome QBs do not suffer the same drop as others. There are other factors like teams being able to view film of them from the current year as the season progresses. Age and the effects of playing a full season (injuries, fatigue) are also a factor. However, we have no way to quantify the effect of tape being available, and in the data provided so far, there is no obvious correlation between age and performance. In general we would expect older players to fall off more, however, some of the largest drops have been younger players. What we do see is QBs whose home stadium is outdoors in cold climates tend to fall off more than dome/warm QBs at the end of the season in general.

All of that said, Favre has a rebuilt shoulder that is not giving him problems any more. He is playing more games in a dome late in a season than any time in the last five years. In fact, he's only played in one dome game in the last five weeks of a season since Dec 1 2005. He is on a good team with balance on both sides of the ball. All of these should be taken into consideration before arbitrarily tossing out Farve is going to drop off the face of the earth. His numbers will fall probably fall off, as most QBs' do, but he's going to be playing for the home team in a dome 2 of those 4. He will most likely have a home playoff game. Those factors are favorable to him finishing the year better than the previous four.

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Okay, we actually completely agree on this. That is exactly what I believe. I'm saying part of Favre's late season drop-offs are weather related, and every other QB who plays for a cold/outdoor home team shows the same declines. Favre also has shown age in that the cold affects him more, and he was injured and should have been benched last year.

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No, I'm just trying to respond to three people at a time. :shock:

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No the whole point was when the weather TURNS




And the numbers DONT bear that out...As far as upper tier and big time VET q/b that is all I looked at since would make no sense to look at a q/b with only one or 2 years of cold weather games...And make no sense to look at q/b that can not be considered upper tier ones either


Warner and Brett were only ones that were far worse then everyone else in games under 40..In fact some were BETTER in the cold

Last time; try to keep up. When does the weather turn? At the end of the year. You can't pull all stats for <40 temp games because not all of those are at the end of the year. You clearly don't read more than two lines of my posts without running off at the mouth and completely ignoring what I said. Thank you for again taking one snippet of what I said out of context, misrepresenting it, and arguing against a straw man argument that I wasn't making. I've tried to be nice, but frankly, I can't take you seriously when you couldn't even read the home/away column on a schedule correctly. Keep arguing with yourself, though.

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lol got ya,

My point was the weather cuz YOU said duhhhhhh the WEATHER

Try to keep up SPARKY!!!

I hope Favre plays like crap.
Why?
Cause he's the QB of the Vikings.
Thats all I need to know.

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I hope Favre plays like crap.
Why?
Cause he's the QB of the Vikings.
Thats all I need to know.

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