Now that its easier to follow..

SAM??

Care to show me where I said anything about a trend?

I can show you I said 2 games were in a dome and that weather had NO BEARING on him sucking in those two games..That is ALL I SAID

Please stop putting words in my mouth..Maybe someone else said it was a trend in shout but it was not me..

Again your claim


I proved that wrong by pointing out Brett had horrible games in DOMES

That is all I SAID..




There rest is the shout history

First of all, thanks for starting a thread. This was too difficult to discuss in the shout box without making walls of text.

Back to the topic at hand: How does that in any way prove what I said wrong? Because Favre had two bad games in domes that means every other QB is unaffected by the weather? How about the other two games where he threw 3 TDs and 1 INT? You're picking and choosing specific games in a specific season and ignoring the larger point. I never said all of Favre's mistake were because of weather.

Favre has played horribly at times the last few years. However, in 05 the whole team was crap. We had so many injuries we were starting practice squad players like Sam Gado for crying out loud. In 08, Favre was clearly playing hurt and should have been benched. I don't know if that speaks poorly of the Jets' coaches or their backup QBs, but I do know they canned the coach and didn't promote any of their backups this season.

To take those two years and try to extrapolate a trend, they have to give us some reason to make us think those are the norm. 05 and 08 are demonstrably not the norm. Unless you think Favre's arm is going to blow out again, 08 is not going to repeat itself. Minnesota is not the 05 Packers. They have a good defense, and a good running game. They're not going to be trailing by 20 points and having Favre fling Hail Marys the entire 4th quarter hoping for a miracle.

That brings us back to 06 and 07. His numbers clearly tail off. My question is, what do other QBs numbers look like the last month of the season? Thus my statement, that I bet every QB in the league's numbers trend down the final month because it's no longer mid 70s and sunny like it was in September. Please show me where anything you said proves that the average QB numbers don't go down in the last month. Please explain how pointing out Favre played two games in domes in one season has anything to do with proving a 4-year trend in Favre's play. Unless Favre played EVERY game in a dome and the weather had zero impact, you haven't addressed the point I was making.

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Your making WAY to complicated, seriously...WAY over analyzing it all... LOL

1st---I am not worried about other q.b, not worried about other seasons..

Weather cant affect dome games........


He played 2 bad games in 06 in domes, so dont use weather as an excuse for the bad play in THOSE 2 games


That is ALL

Now I had a chance to read rest of your post I did little looking

Using yahoo nfl stat section

each q/b has a split section for different scenarios..

Some q.b have a stat for FRIGID and cold so I took those and averaged it out..Some only have a cold stat so just took that stat

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/5228/splits;_ylt=AtSCK3RM0fD1f9IUsBdxFXL.uLYF 


Brady career rating 93.9
<40 degrees 93.4

Manning career rating 95.3
<40 degrees 86.9

Brees career rating 91.5
<40 degrees 119.3

Big Ben career rating 91.2
<40 degrees 97.6

Eli career rating of 78.0
<40 degrees 67.9


Collins career rating 73.4
<40 degrees 84.0

Brett career rating 86.4
<40 dregrees 75.3

Are you saying greater than or less than 40 degrees? Because you wrote greater than.

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We'll have to agree to disagree. I don't think it's enough to simply look at some numbers without examining why those numbers happen. But I will admit I'm biased since my job involves analyzing numbers. Obviously weather doesn't affect dome games, but the question stands: is Favre collapsing at the end of season unique, or is this something every QB shows? I can't find data either way yet, but the anecdotal evidence is that weather does have some bearing on late season games.

By the way, you're wrong about the domed games. In 06 we played Detroit and Minnesota at home in the last four games 2006 schedule . Favre has played one game in a dome games 12-16 from 05-present. That was at St Louis week 15 in 07.

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Yup your right

I used this

http://www.jt-sw.com/football/pro/results.nsf/Teams/2006-gb 

and its a little hard to see the AT or the VS for me on my puter..

So i apologize..

But point is the same weather dont affect dome games LOL


I did a run down of a few prime time q.b in COLD games in previous post..

Shows that weather doesnt really affect them..asmuch as it affects Brett

'


LOL fixed it

but obviously since we are talking about COLD weather is was suppose to be less than

I'm not sure what's going on here, but I'll throw this in.

Favre was at one point, 32 - 0 (or more) when the temperature was 34 degrees or less.

Since he's gotten older, the cold effects him more. He admitted this in '07 before the Bears game and after, as well as before and after the Giants game that same year.

The cold effects older players.

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Ah, but it does show an effect. If you look at the same link you provided (fantastic resource there, by the way), go to the Split Statistics tab and choose career.

Under the section with the weather, there's a section showing 1st half of the season/2nd half of the season splits.

We find:
Brady 96.5/89.9 (-6.6)
P Manning 96.6/94.4 (-2.2)
E Manning 85.3/71.3 (-14)
Roethlisberger 96.1/85.7 (-10.4)
Brees 91.2/91.9 (+0.7)
Rivers 95.5/95.3 (-0.2)
Favre 88.3/87.7 (-0.6)
Romo 98.9/91.7 (-7.2)
Warner 91.0/95.8 (+4.8)

Every one of the top QBs has a lower rating in the second half of the season for their career except Brees and Warner. Where have they played? SD/NO for Brees, and StL/Arz (one year in NYG) for Warner. They haven't had to contend with the weather as often, and the numbers bear this out. Rivers and Peyton Manning also show small drops (again warm weather and a dome). Favre historically compares favorably to current QBs.

Looking a little closer, you can use that same web page and choose 3-year average. For Favre, that average is 95.5/92.0 (-3.5). He's clearly suffering a sharper fall-off from first half to last over the last 3 years running, but he's still in line with other QBs. In fact, we should expect to see less off a drop this year since he is playing home games in a dome for the first time. It doesn't hurt Minnesota also has a good defense and running game to fall back on.

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