A lot of factors go into a play call, but percentages play a big role IMO.
I would be willing to say the percentage of getting a first down on 3rd and one is greater if you run the ball than if you play action out of shot gun....
Even play action out of a regular formation a full house set or i-formation.
That play was a very strange call. I get what he was doing, but sometimes you need to respect your opponents 'intelligence too. Not sure he did that. Against bad teams who are usually over aggressive and undisciplined, that play probably works, but against a very very good team, that play mostly doesn't.