Well my picks didnt turn out too bad this past week - main problem was that I was 'heavily invested' in the pack and they dropped the ball (literally).
And then carolina lost - if carolina would of won. I would of been sitting pretty. Had 2 3 team bets that would of worked out ...

but thats done and dusted.

Some adjustments to my betting - I'm going to use less $ on my triple bets and play some more double bets. Perhaps do some low money bets with 4 and up for kicks.

We got some interesting match ups this week - and some interesting spreads.

All the spreads and money lines are not in yet but here is a preview:
(I tend to like underdogs; ie better moneyline or spread if I decide to take it)
but I only like underdogs if I think they will win (makes sense)

titans(+2.5) @ jets - jets have been doing real well here; Im going to have to watch the titans game. I have a feeling the titans may pull this one off.

jaguars(+3.5) @ texans - I definately like the texans with this one; ie they beat the titans and have a amazing offense. Might watch the game here also.

chiefs(no spread listed yet) @ eagles - have a feeling the spread will blow. And considering mcnabb will probably be out again; I'm not so sure. If its under 7 spread against the eagles I may go for it.

ravens play the browns and the giants play the buccs; problem is the spread blows -13 against the ravens and -7 vs giants. Easy wins but lousey spreads; and the giants play in tampa.

redskins(-6) @ lions - I like the lions here; but want to watch the game vs min to get a better idea how they can handle a high powered D.

Pack(-6.5) @ rams - least the spread isnt past 1 td. We should win easily (thats what peeps said last week thou); and with our safety issues it could be a little more challenging. I will still take the pack this week thou. 6.5 isnt bad.

niners(+7) @ min - now this is a interesting match up. niners have been cruising under the radar all offseason and now into the season. I'm pretty tempted to take the niners on this one. But again this could go either way IMO.

bears(-1.5) @ seattle - seattle may have to sit hasselback; want to watch their game vs the niners anyways ... Id go with the bears here but I want to see how their backupqb is in seattle.

NO(-5.5) @ bills - saints should own the bills.

Denver (+1.5) @ raiders - like denver here

Ind(no spread yet) @ cards - like the cards depending on spread


have to see how some of these other spread work out; and Id like to watch some of these games.

My favorite matches so far would be the texans, packers (if we cant beat the rams we might as well pack it up), and NO

close seconds would be the broncos, bears(depending on what I see on the tape for seattle and if they got hasselback or not), detroit(Im tempted to put them on a upper team bet but well see), giants, Ten

Dulak, where do you place your bets? I just got an account at bodog today because I finally feel confident enough to start wagering small sums of cash on my picks. I had a friend that did this a few years ago when I first started college and it's how he made money on the side. Just a few smart picks a week.

living in england so betting places are everywhere - but I am doing them online via a few english sites.

ya start out small and see how you do; if you can combine teams that you think will win they stack up but then they all have to win.

I got my picks in this week ...

I ended up doing a Ton of multi bets - hmmm not sure if I should of done that many. If one of the 'forsure' teams loses then its all for naught.

Oh well live and learn. I planned to only wager 30% of my balance this week but ended up going to 38% ...

What I did was rank the teams in regards to whom they were playing; ie so did 1-5
5 being the best till 1 ... 1 was for ranks in which I thought they may win but I really wasnt sure ie same with 2; 3 was good chance but could flop it. 4 was almost as good as 5.

anyways ...

like I said I did a ton of muti bets all the way up to 14 teams in a bet (ya crazy) ... but wagered for fewer pounds.

if I can make double of what I invested Ill be happy ie thats my goal - so if I invest 500 and make 500 - its all good.

Obviously with all the crazy bets I made who knows.

My top 6 picks this week are:(in this order)(these picks are in relation to the teams they are playing and their spread)(ie I normally really like MN but since they are playing SF I rank them a 3).

Packers
Houston
Baltimore
Giants
NO
SD

(these are my top 6) - when it comes to the spread ... thats where it get tricky. You can take the spread or go with the moneyline or some places let you make up your own spread.

ie I never took the spread with baltimore -13 was just too big; so I just took the moneyline and I figured a almost guarentee win but the odds blew 1.13
IMO the pack and houston should have no probs making their spread - the others could be tricky.

I also liked dallas and MN ...
but those I ranked at 3 ... and the rest of my picks I rated 1-2 were up in the air which I used for my big muti bets.

I did get way carried away on some multibets; I think I did like 20 of them but for low amounts so at least its not a big loss if I was wrong on em ... but Im going to have to re-evalaute how I want to do this.

first day I did some mutibets and I bet too much; am looking at one and the odds are really nice but again too much dough ...

To me when doing these bets; its not just what teams I like - its what teams they are facing. And I dont think you can compare necessarily from all the past games. IMO the most recent games including the preseason are most relevant.

ie last week I liked the panthers over atlanta (nice odds and I thought they could pull it off) but panthers vs dallas; nah ... too risky IMO.

you would think I would be happy that I made a tiny bit of dough this week ... but no ... I think its the fact I was one game from making many many times my total stake this week (houston).

I had so many picks off my top 6 but my 2 that I stuck with the whole time was GB and houston; I did a few bets with just these and others.

And then I took my top 6 and bet on Numerous others; up to 14 teams at once. And ya I took detroit on many of these along with min phil chicago jets denver ... I took pit on a few so scratch them. But also went with arz dallas.

all because little old houston couldnt show their stuff to the jags ...

Only reason I am ahead (just barely) this week is because I took a NFC north bet (lol). Detroit, chicago, GB and min (no I didnt take the spread here).

And then did something called a heinz 57 on my 6 teams with moderate spreads. Basically it uses every combo of double, triple, quad and 5 and 6.
I probably wont use that bet again. Got 5 out of 6 correct and only made 2x my original wager. If 2 teams would of lost or missed the spread I probably would of lost some money.

I think it would be better to keep the number of teams smaller say 2-4 at the most. And the more teams I use ... the lower the amount of money I use.

And ya perhaps do some crazy bets but use very little dough and not so many.

Once monday nights game is over Ill go through exactly how much I could of done if houston would of made it (I took them at a spread thou also I think many at -5.5 and some at -2.5). Mainly to see how I can avoid this pitfal in the future but still leave it open for the possability for winning big.

Well I made my picks

I did a similar process as last week; coming up with my top picks - turned out to be 6 again but in reality only felt really good about 4 of them (spreads were a bit crappy on them so I took low spreads or moneylines on them).

This time I did a bunch of branched out bets involving various combinations of certain picks - ie if I had 7 teams I did pick 5s so where if I got 1 wrong I came out ahead 2 wrong even.

I did a few large multiple picks but not as good as odds as last week (ie teams are defining themselves more so hard to get good odds for slight underdogs)

I did end up betting more then my original plan - I would say about 50%
still too much. I want to keep it at 30%.

I am attempting to develope a few different betting schemes to employ 'forsure' wins and the more 'up-in the air chances' (but high reward).

I also like the idea of the multiples since it stacks the odds and if I get them wrong as long as I can get a couple of them right it will keep me in the game.

ie - if I get 1 of my top 6 picks wrong I should still make out pretty good; 2 wrong I should be close to even. 3 wrong then I will be down and possibly lose my steak. So way to combat this would be to only invest 30% of my total steak at one time and vary the bets even when it comes to my top 6 choices. I consider the bets involved with my other choices the gravy on top.

I'm going to list some of my more 'waky picks' - these are ones that I didnt invest heavily into but that I choose to use alot of in various multiple combos.

Detroit 10.5+ took the spread with detroit at 10 1/2 points. I dont know if its just I hate the bears (although I did take them last week over seattle). Or if its because I feel the lions have a 'decent' team and 10 1/2 points is a nice spread (they were giving the viks a run for the money there the 1st 1/2).

SD - they got their RB back and then add rivers passing game; only way I see pit beating them is if the home field advantage stacks up too much against the chargers.

GB - ok not that wild of a pick; unless the refs are in-love with farve like they were last week (all those poor penalties on the niners for even breathing in farves direction). I see us beating the viks and intercepting at least 2x.

Denver - I consider denvers D better then dallas's and they have a nice running back. Could be a close game.

Ravens - I like them much better then the pats.


-oh ya I did end up putting a bit on the packers (was kind of pissed they changed the odds for the pack after I got all my bets in lol).


btw is anyone interested in talking picks here or am I just talking to the wind?

I DON'T BELIEVE IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The bookies where I placed my 10.00 bet on the packers to win the Superbowl at 25/1 burnt down in a fire last night and has had to be demolished.

I've heard of welshing on a bet but this is ridiculous

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/merseyside/8289329.stm 

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You are cognizant of the moon phase?

Full-moon road dog theory in full effect!

Excepting the dome thing, but this is what we have a football team for.

:thumbleft:

Need help on some picks for week 7

chi(+1) @ cinci
I'm leaning toward chicago because odom is out. And the bears arnt doing too bad. And I think chicago has been playing a bit better then cinci of late. But then again its a tough call for me. So whats your take and why.

SF (+3) @ Houston
No idea whom to go for here; is gore back yet? crabtree will be in but I dont expect too much until he learns the system. Houston's offense is on fire ... schaub is the best QB this season did ya know? (well stats wise).
I cant pick this one yet ... whats your take?

Bills (+7) @ panthers Bills are starting to get it together. Ya I'm leaning toward the panthers but the bills could pull it off. Whats your take?

these are my main ones that I am undecided with