Dulak
  • Dulak
  • Veteran Member Topic Starter
15 years ago
Hey flep - sounds like me and you got to discuss come picks; hopefully we can get some other involved even if they dont want to throw money on the line.

To answer some of your questions - there are no bookies in the states; only places I know its legal to sports bet is vegas (or maybe just nevada (never been there)) maybe atlantic city new jersey (but again never been there).
There are casinos in various places in the states - but again these are regulated and of course taxed; which also the winnings are.

I used to play the riverboats (casinos) and if I remember right if you won over a certain amount they took the tax out automatically.
Dulak
  • Dulak
  • Veteran Member Topic Starter
15 years ago
I got some $ also on the pack winning the big one; actually threw it on a few different times. I'm almost debating about throwing some more on but really dont want my money tied up for the whole regular season.

btw which sites do you like the best in the UK?

and I totally agree with you on putting money on a game and it gives you a reason to root for that team and watch it. More entertaining.

So who do you like this coming week?
I like the moneylines the best; since when the teams really play - they play to win; they dont play to meet some certain handicap. IMO handicap is risky but if your team is the favorite you often get crap for odds if playing the moneyline.

-I was going to say the main problem is just being able to watch the games here in the UK-
I'm debating about signing up for the NFL gamepass its 150pounds thou for the regular season games. They black out the ones that show in the UK which sucks but least I hope you can watch the games after the fact (maybe?)
Dulak
  • Dulak
  • Veteran Member Topic Starter
15 years ago
Ok for this week this is what I got going on ...

I took the titans over the steelers; nice odds. Ended up staying up till 5am to watch that freaking OT show. Man close game but ya the steelers really pulled it off in the end so grats to them.

Sunday I got these:

Min over clevland - min should crush them; even if farve is a little rusty.
Philly over carolina - I really like philly this year; really nice D
GB over chicago (of course) - dont have much to say except this should be quite entertaining watching us crush chicago and too see how many turnovers cutler has.

I'm a bit undecided on the jets over houston. Nice odds with the jets; just not sure if sanchez will need some more practice.
(Ill probably put a smaller bet on this game)
Dulak
  • Dulak
  • Veteran Member Topic Starter
15 years ago
Actually did quite well this week with my plays - but I got overboard betting on the packers game; I was 'convinced' by all the big names saying how the pack for sure would win this game.

2 problems with this; #1 Its just an opinion and #2 there is the spread to deal with.

I'm going to have to watch some of these games; I put a bet on the jets/texans and actually won it(didnt even remember I bet - I had to pick how much the jets would win by and picked the right amount lol (originally I thought the texans might win this).

I decided I am going to have more control over my bets and how much I do and where I place them. I think its best to spread things out a bit incase I lose a key game.

Its sort of funny 2 weeks ago the pack was at 1-34 odds at winning the superbowl; today they are 1-17 (this is just what the bookies have ie how many people bet on teams and the worst ones get put in last etc ...)

As far as the monday nights games; I dont like any of the straight bets here (the spread sucks on the teams that I like). I may bet on how much they win by thou.

Then after they play I can go through some of next weeks games and figure out whom I like most and try to narrow it down.

Pack plays the bengels but the spread will probably be crappy since its at home and its the bengels.
Dulak
  • Dulak
  • Veteran Member Topic Starter
15 years ago
Not alot of great games to bet on this week:

Minn plays the lions with a crappy spread -9.5 against Min and its on lions territory - of course I like Minn over the lions but that spread blows.

Redskins over rams but again there is a crappy spread -9.5

Seahawks over the 9ers - I havnt watched any seahawk games but from the replays I like what I see of their team. They have a +1.5 against the 9ers. Might watch their last game here and make a decision on this.

Bears over steelers - Im almost tempted to go with this one; bears got a +3 with homefeild advantage; problem is they got alot of injuries now after our game.

Of course we go against the bengals - but its a freakin -9 spread for us. Thats crap.

NY giants vs the cowboys - I like the giants here and they get a +3 spread.

Texans over the titans - I like the texans thought they were good in the preseason ; if I can watch the recent game vs the jets it will give me an idea how they are.

So far my top picks are seattle, giants and texans (mainly for the nice spread or good ideas at the money line). Debating about the bears over the steelers but thats iffy.
Mn and pack whom were nice picks last week are not great this week due to the spreads.
dfosterf
15 years ago
Gotta know the moon-phase.

Laugh if you want.

Real smart friend. Mathematician. Noticed a trend in the early 70's. Has tracked it and bet it since.

He has a way with words as well.

"Full-moon road dog theory"

You get the moon phase. It works best percentage-wise if the game falls on the exact full-moon, diminishing to the point of non-relevance 72 hours out.

It also works in hockey and baseball, but works best in non-domed stadiums in the NFL.

On a full moon, you bet the entire slate of away teams that are also under-dogs. Most profoundly accurate is above criteria, plus Monday Night Football. MNF almost invariably smashes the spread under these conditions.

"Full moon road dogs"

Believe it or not. At least you were told. :thumbleft:

No, I am not putting this post in the Noah's ark thread. :pottytrain2:
Dulak
  • Dulak
  • Veteran Member Topic Starter
15 years ago
Games of interest in week 2 and where I stand at now (may change in the next couple days).

Texans(+7) @ Ten - Texans got a 7 spread; thats not bad. Or if you go with the money line you get some nice odds of 2.3 I like the texans but a bit risky

Cinci(+9) @ Packers - ... I'm feeling better about the crap spread we got -9 I may even throw some dough on it. Obviously I feel we'll beat the bengals; just unsure about the 9 spread.

NO @ Philly - Without mcnabb I like the saints; even with mcnab I'm leaning toward the saints. They got a killer offense this year.

Panthers(+6) @ Atlanta - I like the panters; they are a better team then the score they showed vs the eagles. I dont think atlantas D is as good as phillys. Besides panthers got a +6 spread

Cards(+3) @ Jacksonville - I like the cards; IMO jackson sucks this year. I think the cards got downgraded too quickly to think they need a +3 spread to beat jacksonville.

Seahawks(+1.5) @ 49ers - I like the seahawks; Hill had some nice passing in last weeks game; but I consider the seahawks D to be much better. (not sure if I will go for this bet thou - I'm iffy on this outcome)

Ravens(+3) @ chargers - Ravens sure has some nice O last week. And their D is top notch. Be a good match up. I'd go with the ravens. But the chargers are a real good team; good QB and running backs. So I consider this a risky one.

Steelers @ Bears(+3) - The bears are itching for a win after getting beat by us. And they will be at home. Cutler and the crew wont want to look like tards(too late) at home. Id put my money on the bears but it could be dicey.

Giants(+3) @ Dallas - Both teams are real good IMO. But I got to go with the giants on this one. If the giants can shut down and get to romo their passing game is gone.
Dulak
  • Dulak
  • Veteran Member Topic Starter
15 years ago
Well I made a bunch of picks here:

I did a bunch of bets where you can do multiples ie select 2 or more bets to win and they cumulate on each other (but all have to win).

I did a few 3 team wins; the odds are so good if I get one of them Ill be sitting pretty. But then again all the teams have to win etc ...

I did a NFC north tri bet.
Pack-9/Min-10/Chicago (ya I think Min takes down detroit; spread is high but it was only a small bet)

My top picks for this week are NO, Carolina, Cards (did various bets with these teams).

Also picked the giants over the niners

I also took GB with the spread.

-note- I took too many bets with NO, next time I wont focus that much on one team.
Nonstopdrivel
15 years ago
I'm still marveling that the spread on the Tennessee/Florida game is -29 (-30 with some bookies)!
UserPostedImage
Dulak
  • Dulak
  • Veteran Member Topic Starter
15 years ago

I'm still marveling that the spread on the Tennessee/Florida game is -29 (-30 with some bookies)!

"Nonstopdrivel" wrote:



thanks for that - won me 22pounds with that one; figured the odds were with me if I took the team with the 30points
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