Pack93z
  • Pack93z
  • Select Member Topic Starter
15 years ago
Could this be the reason that the Packers moved on.. very interesting breakdown of his late season fades.. Or that the Jets didn't beg him to continue..

But being a world of stats.. this must have been tracked...

Seifert 

Posted by ESPN.com's Kevin Seifert

Those hoping to wrap up (Brett) Favre Watch '09 didn't get much help Monday from Minnesota president Mark Wilf, who acknowledged the Vikings' interest and refused to rule out the possibility of signing Favre sometime this summer.

The Vikings' intentions seem clear. Favre, on the other hand, is weighing options for his partially torn right biceps. He has no doubt considered the implications of playing for a chief rival of his former team. And as Favre approaches his 40th birthday, I wonder if he might also be pondering the way he has run out of gas in each of the past four seasons. [img_r]http://a.espncdn.com/photo/2009/0512/nfl_u_bfavrets1_480.jpg[/img_r]

There has been significant discussion surrounding the impact of Favre's partially torn biceps tendon on his performance last season, a point Scouts Inc.'s Matt Williamson made last week in analyzing Favre's potential comeback. In the same post, reader Robbiemustgo32 produced a startling statistical compilation that reveals a dramatic end-season drop-off dating back to 2005.

The chart below illustrates Favre's performance before and after the 12th game of the past four seasons. Just for the fun of it, I verified Robbiemustgo32's figures, even though I'm far more likely to botch a chart than most readers. Everything added up.

Breaking Down

Conditioning? Age? Weather? Whatever the cause, retired quarterback Brett Favre has dropped off considerably over the final five weeks in each of the past four seasons. Let's take a look:

Time Period 		Comp. % Yds/Att TD 	INT
'05 Games 1-11 		63.6 	6.77 	19 	19
'05 Games 12-16 	56.8 	5.67    1 	10
'06 Games 1-11 		57.1 	6.54 	14 	10
'06 Games 12-16 	53.8 	5.96 	4 	8
'07 Games 1-11 		68.5 	7.90 	22 	8
'07 Games 12-16 	59.1 	7.26 	6 	7
'08 Games 1-11 		70.6 	7.09 	20 	13
'08 Games 12-16 	56.1 	6.03 	2 	9
Source: User Robbiemustgo32 (and double-checked by ESPN.com)

Robbiemustgo32's work illuminates a trend that began long before the biceps injury surfaced. You'll note Favre's completion percentage dropped nearly nine points on average after Game 11, and he threw nearly three times as many interceptions (34) as touchdowns (13) over the combined final stretches of those seasons.

In truth, some of the NFL's best quarterbacks fall off to a degree at the end of the season. The reasons make sense. Weather conditions worsen. Injuries occur, hampering the passer and/or limiting his weapons. Defenses make adjustments. Playcallers grow more conservative.

So to be fair, I worked up the same analysis for the six quarterbacks originally named to the 2008 Pro Bowl. (Favre was one of them.) Take a look:
Pro Bowl QBs in 2008

For comparison's sake, take a look at the same breakdown for the 2008 performances of the NFL's other five Pro Bowl quarterbacks:*


DREW BREES 	Comp. % Yds/Att TDs 	INT
Games 1-11 	67.4 	8.43 	22 	11
Games 12-16 	60.2 	7.08 	12 	6

JAY CUTLER 	Comp. % Yds/Att TDs 	INT
Games 1-11 	60.1 	7.48 	19 	12
Games 12-16 	65.7 	7.09 	6 	6

ELI MANNING 	Comp. % Yds/Att TDs 	INT
Games 1-11 	62.0 	6.88 	18 	7
Games 12-16 	56.3 	6.47 	3 	3

PEYTON MANNING 	Comp. % Yds/Att TDs 	INT
Games 1-11 	62.7 	6.66 	19 	10
Games 12-16 	80.2 	9.0 	8 	2

KURT WARNER 	Comp. % Yds/Att	TDs 	INT
Games 1-11 	69.7 	8.1 	21 	8
Games 12-16 	60.0 	6.53 	9 	6
*As originally named

Only one of the six, Indianapolis' Peyton Manning, improved in every category over the final five games of last season. Everyone else leveled off in at least some categories, but none dropped as precipitously or as across-the-board as Favre has since 2005.

Arizona's Kurt Warner, for instance, kept his completion percentage at 60 percent and maintained a positive touchdown-interception ratio. Meanwhile, New Orleans' Drew Brees still threw twice as many touchdowns as he did interceptions.

So what do these numbers tell us about Favre? From the outside, at least, they reveal a simple but valuable fact: He hasn't had the stamina to maintain acceptable production over a 16-game season for some time. Favre will turn 40 on Oct. 10, and while he has considerably outplayed younger quarterbacks in recent years, his bionic arm and body have revealed their limitations.

More than anything, those issues can be traced to cold weather -- a key factor that both Favre and the Vikings must consider. Although Minnesota could play as many as 11 games indoors this season (depending on retractable roof decisions), it has two outdoor games in December that figure to have significant impact on the playoff race:

1. Dec. 20 at Carolina with an 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff
2. Dec. 28 at Chicago with an 8:30 p.m. ET kickoff

According to STATS Inc., Favre has played 14 games in weather under 40 degrees during the 2005-08 span we've been analyzing. In those games, he's thrown nine touchdown passes and 25 interceptions while compiling a 60.3 passer rating.

In eight indoor games during times when the outdoor temperature was less than 40 degrees, Favre threw 15 touchdown passes and five interceptions while compiling a 99.9 passer rating. (Also based on STATS research.)

There are many reasons why Favre has waffled on whether to retire or continue playing in recent years. Without a doubt, one factor must be the way he has finished those seasons from an individual standpoint. His end-game performance, coupled with the potential for cold-weather games on the Vikings' schedule, adds another layer to a discussion that -- as Williamson originally pointed out -- has no slam-dunk resolution.


edited by Zer2Cool - formatted stats
"The oranges are dry; the apples are mealy; and the papayas... I don't know what's going on with the papayas!"
wils0646
15 years ago
I honestly do believe that's one of the reasons why the Pack moved on. We always play a number of cold games late in the season and Favre really has flipped his record those situations. I remember him being almost invincible when it was 32* or colder. Not so much lately.
The Pack Will Be Back.
Cheesey
15 years ago

I honestly do believe that's one of the reasons why the Pack moved on. We always play a number of cold games late in the season and Favre really has flipped his record those situations. I remember him being almost invincible when it was 32* or colder. Not so much lately.

"wils0646" wrote:


Yup....now it's been reversed. Now he's lousy in cold games.
I think it's old age setting in.
(old for an NFL QB)

longtimefan
15 years ago
I mentioned it a while ago on Bretts forum ( wonder if anyone recalls it )

I thought he was wearing down near end of the seasons..and that is why his playoff games suffered as a whole...

I suggested he get more bench time in regular season if games were out of hand
Nonstopdrivel
15 years ago
Holy shit! We can float images left and right! Why didn't I know this before? This is awesome!
TheOldMan
15 years ago

I honestly do believe that's one of the reasons why the Pack moved on. We always play a number of cold games late in the season and Favre really has flipped his record those situations. I remember him being almost invincible when it was 32* or colder. Not so much lately.

"wils0646" wrote:



Favre's record 2008 = 14-3
Truth be known, I'm TT's baby!
Zero2Cool
15 years ago

I honestly do believe that's one of the reasons why the Pack moved on. We always play a number of cold games late in the season and Favre really has flipped his record those situations. I remember him being almost invincible when it was 32* or colder. Not so much lately.

"TheOldMan" wrote:



Favre's record 2008 = 14-3

"wils0646" wrote:



How's that possible? You add 1 win for him in the playoffs, but don't count the Giants loss?

I think this right here says everything we need to know about you. You are a Favre First'er. Nothing wrong with that, but it will be taken in with your every post from here on.
Pack93z
  • Pack93z
  • Select Member Topic Starter
15 years ago

I honestly do believe that's one of the reasons why the Pack moved on. We always play a number of cold games late in the season and Favre really has flipped his record those situations. I remember him being almost invincible when it was 32* or colder. Not so much lately.

"TheOldMan" wrote:



Favre's record 2008 = 14-3

"wils0646" wrote:



I swear the Jets didn't make the playoffs last year.. hmmm.. checking calendar again. :lol:
"The oranges are dry; the apples are mealy; and the papayas... I don't know what's going on with the papayas!"
TheOldMan
15 years ago
I'm just saying that he was (14-4), ok Slick?

And 8-3 and looking good before his arm started bothering him. You also have to take into account that Brett took alot of hits last year because his O-Line was poor at pass blocking.

Factor that in with the fact that Denver should the league how to play the Jets, by taking away the short passing game because the didn't have an answer (or the WR's) for the long passing game. Also, the coaches should have gone to the run when teams shut down the short passing game by moving up the DB's, but they didn't.

One more factor was that the Jet's defense really took a sh*t at the end of the season, which didn't help.

But yeah, it was Favre's "stamina". ok.
Truth be known, I'm TT's baby!
longtimefan
15 years ago



One more factor was that the Jet's defense really took a sh*t at the end of the season, which didn't help.

But yeah, it was Favre's "stamina". ok.

"TheOldMan" wrote:



Jets D won the buffalo game for them

Jets D only allowed Seattle to score 13 points

Those are 2 games that had nothing to do with Brett.In fact one might say Brett hurt the team more in those 2 losses.
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