GREEN BAY, Wis. – Nobody is buying a ticket to see the general manager, but that man – Brian Gutekunst in the case of the Green Bay Packers – is the most important part of any NFL organization.
Without a good general manager, an NFL team has no chance for sustained success. Even for teams with a great quarterback, it’s up to the general manager to find the right supporting pieces. To strike the right balance with the salary cap. To pinpoint the good players who they can’t afford to lose and the good players they can’t afford to keep. To navigate the inevitable injuries. To be aggressive but not reckless.
Brad Spielberger ranked the NFL’s 32 general managers for Pro Football Focus. He put them into four groups. Tier 1 general managers have a clear vision and the ability to manage short- and long-term interests, Tier 2 GMs have a clear vision but “sometimes” are too focused on windows and Tier 3 GMs have a “questionable process.” The list is rounded out by the seven who haven’t been on the job long enough to render judgement.
Spielberger placed Gutekunst toward the bottom of the Tier 2 group.
Hired in 2018, Gutekunst has taken a much more aggressive approach than his predecessor and mentor, Ted Thompson.
Gutekunst hasn’t shied away from free agency, though the bulk of that spending was done in 2019, when he signed Preston Smith, Za’Darius Smith, Adrian Amos and Billy Turner.
When there were holes on the roster, Thompson almost always went young by pulling from his practice squad. Gutekunst, on the other hand, signed De’Vondre Campbell, Jarran Reed and Rasul Douglas, among others.
Gutekunst has attacked the draft. During his first draft in 2018, he traded back and then up to net Jaire Alexander and an additional first-round pick. The 2019 draft class was headlined by Rashan Gary and Elgton Jenkins, a pair of second-contract players who rank among the best at their positions.
The 2020 draft was a disappointment – though it can be saved by Jordan Love – and the 2021 draft looks like a series of missed opportunities.
However, the 2022 draft landed a handful of starters (Quay Walker, Devonte Wyatt, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Zach Tom and Rasheed Walker), and the 2023 draft class, headlined by instant-impact starters Luke Musgrave and Jayden Reed, could be just as good.
Gutekunst hasn’t been hesitant to wheel and deal in the draft, especially in the early rounds. In total, he’s traded up six times and traded back on four occasions. PFF’s trade-value chart assigns point values for each pick. The Packers are one of the big “losers” from a points perspective.
But games are won by players and not hypothetical points. The Packers were fleeced, from a points perspective, when they sent No. 27 and No. 76 to the Seattle Seahawks to move up to No. 18 in 2018 to grab Alexander, a two-time second-team All-Pro. They also lost big on points when they dealt No. 53 and No. 59 to the Minnesota Vikings in 2022 to move up to No. 34 for receiver Christian Watson. Watson is having a disappointing season but has game-changing talent. If Watson reaches his potential, the points, again, will be irrelevant.
Blessed to inherit a team led by Aaron Rodgers, Gutekunst helped put the pieces in place to reach the NFC Championship Game in 2019 and 2020. They became the first team in NFL history with three consecutive seasons of 13-plus regular-season wins.
However, the championship team crumbled in 2022, which led to the trade of Rodgers, and there have been a lot of growing pains in 2023 with Love stepping in at quarterback. Heavy investments on defense have not paid off.
Ultimately, Spielberger correctly says, Gutekunst’s tenure will be judged by whether he’s found or can find a quarterback capable of living up to the “impossibly high standard” set by Rodgers. For now, that player is Love, the player Gutekunst traded up to get instead of adding an immediate contributor to a championship contender. For better or worse, that one decision will forever be Gutekunst’s legacy.