earthquake
3 years ago

I'm not disputing this or saying he's not -- just asking a question. Why do you think TE Tonyan is worth $4 million? You mentioned he improved his stats and had a good 2020 season. I don't know why, but I am really hung up on the OL. I'm also probably too hopeful on Josiah De

Maybe replacing Corey Linsley is going to be easier than I think? When watching that NFC Championship game -- I saw and OL just get manhandled and that was with Linsley, an All-Pro at Center. We'll get David Bakhtiari back, which absolutely helps.

You mentioned Allen Lazard. He's entering his fourth season coming off back to back solid seasons. What we can't see from stats is how crazy good of a blocker he is and how good he is at picking out DB's. This isn't my word, it's the words of the coaches and Aaron Rodgers. Of course, I saw it on replays, but only after it was pointed out, lol.

As of right now, the Packers are $1 million below the salary cap.

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 



Yeah, when it comes to pending FAs, losing Linsley is my biggest concern. I don't think they will have the cap to sign either him or Aaron Jones, but if they did sign one of them I would prefer it to be Linsley. But the Packer's history of letting 30+ year old (Linsley will be 30 by the time the season starts) offensive lineman walk rather than give them big contracts makes me think he's already gone. They tend to make smart moves here, Sitton and Lang being recent examples.

At $1m under, they are about $8m over effectively, since their draft class will cost ~$9m to sign, baring any trades that reduce the number of picks they have. With 10 picks and cap issues, this would be a good year to trade up and go for quality over quantity, and/or make trades that involve receiving picks in 2022.

The Packers still have 3 big moves they could make to gain significant cap space:
1. Restructure or extend Aaron Rodgers to push some of his cap hit into future seasons
2. Extend Davante Adams
3. Restructure or extend Za'Darius Smith

These 3 guys currently account for $77m or 42% of the 2021 cap. So I would expect to see something happen with at least two of them. They'll need to do at least one of these moves to afford their draft class, or cut something like 5+ players.

One thing I don't understand is when they technically need to be under the cap. Will they be able to sign free agents, extend players, etc until the season starts, as long as the cap is sorted out before the start? Or is there some other date, like the start of the league year where they need to be compliant with the cap figure?

Edit: Just figured that out, it's March 17th, the start of the new league year. So they need to free up some more cap space before they can consider signing Linsley, Jones, or even tendering Tonyan. The rookie contracts won't hit until well after the draft, so they will have some time between free agency and the start of the season to get creative in finding ways to afford the draft class, if needed.
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beast
3 years ago

Why do you think TE Tonyan is worth $4 million?

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 

I believe I covered this in my last post. But to summarize, the other young TEs aren't ready/need at least one more year to develop.

And if he becomes an UFA, then we can get a comp pick when he signs a bigger deal with another team next year (which as an RFA this year, I don't think we're eligible to get this year should he sign with a different team).

I don't know why, but I am really hung up on the OL. I'm also probably too hopeful on Josiah De

Maybe replacing Corey Linsley is going to be easier than I think?

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 

In his very short appearance, Dugara looked great for a rookie TE. But remember TE Lewis isn't currently signed, so even if Dugara is ready to go, then he's probably replacing Lewis.

I don't feel it's fair to compare to compare Tonyan to Linsley.

Tonyan isn't even past the rookie first four years yet. And will cost LESS than $4 million per year.

While Linsley is onto his third contract stage (which Packers rarely give a third long contract to linemen) and while I don't know his price, even some national writers have suggested he might become the highest priced Center in the entire NFL and cost MORE than $12 per year.

And we do need to save up some money so we can resign OL Jenkins, the entire WR group and CB Alexander, maybe more as well.

I don't think replacing Linsley, one of the best Centers in football last year is going to be easy to fully, but generally Centers/Guards are easier to find than other positions and Runyan looked pretty good for a rookie. Though I think he had a rookie wall, and started struggling more, but so did Jenkins as a rookie and many others.

I'm worried about the spot they don't put Jenkins in, weather that's OT or Center.

Also, I wouldn't mind they take a swing at minimum contract on Lane Taylor. If he stays healthy he can play. But I'm doubt Gute is giving him three strike chance with money being so tight.


You mentioned Allen Lazard. He's entering his fourth season coming off back to back solid seasons. What we can't see from stats is how crazy good of a blocker he is and how good he is at picking out DB's. This isn't my word, it's the words of the coaches and Aaron Rodgers. Of course, I saw it on replays, but only after it was pointed out, lol.

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 

What matters is that Lazard is entering his 3rd accrued season, defined as 6 games or more on the 53 man roster/53 man IR. Accrued season is what the NFL counts, so Lazard would be an ERFA this year, and an RFA this coming season.

I completely agree about Lazard's blocking, and that deserves to be recognized and that's honestly how they get him open deep, despite being a slower WR.

They run plays which have him block the DBs, pounding away at them. Then they do the same exact set up, the DB bites down to try to beat the block... only, Lazard ain't blocking on that play, and he runs right past them.
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earthquake
3 years ago
@beast's points regarding players with upcoming contracts in 2022 and beyond is very cogent. The three guys that the Packers really need to sign are Davante Adams, Jaire Alexander, and Elgton Jenkins. If they can extend the latter two before they get a whiff of the open market that would be great. It would be excellent to get Adams locked up sometime this year too. Luckily extending Adams would most likely reduce his cap hit rather than increase it.

In the medium term, signing either Aaron Jones or Corey Linsley will make these signings/extensions difficult, and I'll take Adams or Alexander over Jones every day of the week, and Jenkins over Linsley as well. Some difficult decisions need to be made due to the drop off in cap space, which is -$15M but effectively more like -$25m due to the expectation that the cap goes up ~$10m every year.
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beast
3 years ago

At $1m under, they are about $8m over effectively, since their draft class will cost ~$9m to sign, baring any trades that reduce the number of picks they have. With 10 picks and cap issues, this would be a good year to trade up and go for quality over quantity, and/or make trades that involve receiving picks in 2022.

The Packers still have 3 big moves they could make to gain significant cap space:
1. Restructure or extend Aaron Rodgers to push some of his cap hit into future seasons
2. Extend Davante Adams
3. Restructure or extend Za'Darius Smith

These 3 guys currently account for $77m or 42% of the 2021 cap. So I would expect to see something happen with at least two of them. They'll need to do at least one of these moves to afford their draft class, or cut something like 5+ players.

Originally Posted by: earthquake 

I believe Gute has free up just about as much money as he can, without touching these three and Crosby's contracts, so those will probably be next.

I disagree with you about cash of quality vs quantity. As the prices for draft picks depends on where they were drafted, so less but higher drafted players, does not equal cheaper.

Also, remember, for every rookie that makes the roster, a non-rookie does get cut. Which is why I believe OvertheCap has some formula, that's like

[Rookie signing Cost] - (660,000 x [number of rookies that make the roster])

Where $660,000 is minimum contract the rookies will be replacing or something. Packers have 7 picks in the top 5 rounds. Let's say they all make it. Teams usually like their draft picks making it.

$9 million - ($660,000 x 7)
$9 mil - $4.62 mil
About $4.38 cost to sign the draft picks, plus signing bonuses of the rookies that didn't make it, but those are usually small. So let's say less than $4.4 million.




One thing I don't understand is when they technically need to be under the cap. Will they be able to sign free agents, extend players, etc until the season starts, as long as the cap is sorted out before the start? Or is there some other date, like the start of the league year where they need to be compliant with the cap figure?

Edit: Just figured that out, it's March 17th, the start of the new league year. So they need to free up some more cap space before they can consider signing Linsley, Jones, or even tendering Tonyan. The rookie contracts won't hit until well after the draft, so they will have some time between free agency and the start of the season to get creative in finding ways to afford the draft class, if needed.

Originally Posted by: earthquake 



My understanding is that teams need to be under the cap limit at two points of the year.

The day of the new year, which is normally right before FA opens. And during the season.

So now that Packers are under the Cap by one million, they can wait until the New Year, let that Cap check pass and then they can go over the cap during FA and preseason, but just have to be under it again by the start of the season.

In other words, Gute can sign FAs and go over the cap again, and then restructure those big contracts later.
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earthquake
3 years ago

I believe Gute has free up just about as much money as he can, without touching these three and Crosby's contracts, so those will probably be next.

I disagree with you about cash of quality vs quantity. As the prices for draft picks depends on where they were drafted, so less but higher drafted players, does not equal cheaper.

Also, remember, for every rookie that makes the roster, a non-rookie does get cut. Which is why I believe OvertheCap has some formula, that's like

[Rookie signing Cost] - (660,000 x [number of rookies that make the roster])

Where $660,000 is minimum contract the rookies will be replacing or something. Packers have 7 picks in the top 5 rounds. Let's say they all make it. Teams usually like their draft picks making it.

$9 million - ($660,000 x 7)
$9 mil - $4.62 mil
About $4.38 cost to sign the draft picks, plus signing bonuses of the rookies that didn't make it, but those are usually small. So let's say less than $4.4 million.

Originally Posted by: Beast 



Ah yes, good catch. Trading up to save cost would only make sense if the Packers gave up too much value to trade up. The vet cut math is interesting too.


My understanding is that teams need to be under the cap limit at two points of the year.

The day of the new year, which is normally right before FA opens. And during the season.

So now that Packers are under the Cap by one million, they can wait until the New Year, let that Cap check pass and then they can go over the cap during FA and preseason, but just have to be under it again by the start of the season.

In other words, Gute can sign FAs and go over the cap again, and then restructure those big contracts later.



Thanks, that makes sense, and looks like a much less dire situation.
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beast
3 years ago

Conclusion
For once, I hope I’m mistaken – either about how the RFA provisions work, or in thinking that some other team will value Tonyan as highly as I do. The Packers have a tough choice coming up. If they exercise the first-round tender, it will cost them about 4.8 million (all against the salary cap), but given the compensation aspect, it is highly unlikely that any other team will pursue him. However, if Green Bay opts for the second-round tender, the cost will be about $3.8 million. I hope the Packers can scrape up the extra million to all but assure that Tonyan remains in Green Bay – even if it’s only for the upcoming season.

Total Packers  wrote:



Now this dude is CRAZY! He sights that he's afraid the Packers will only out the 2nd round tender on Tonyan and that one of the teams highest in the draft order will get Tonyan to sign a contract that the Packers can match and we'll lose Tonyan.

If a team high in the draft order is stupid enough to give up a 2nd and a big contract to Tonyan, you take it and RUN!

Hell, I'm not sure they'd even get a low 4th Comp pick for him... losing him one year early, going up two rounds, and savings money, I'd do it!

I get it, Tonyan is efficient, rarely dropping passes that go his way, but he also has a system that's very good at helping the TE get open, and Tonyan still doesn't get high volume of passes because he's solid role player, not a huge play maker that consistently beats quality single coverage one on one without scheme.

I think Tonyan is worth the price of a tender to give the other TEs another year of experience, and maybe get a Comp pick out of him. But you offer me a 3rd (even a low 3rd) for him, and nice working for you Tonyan. I don't know why this guy wouldn't let him go for a high 2nd, just crazy to me.


Then again, his quote at the bottom

Smart drafters don’t select the best available players, they fill a team’s positions of greatest need.

I guess we shouldn't of selected Aaron Rodgers then... G Logan Mankins or one of the busts at a needed position would of been so much better.
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wpr
  • wpr
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3 years ago

Now this dude is CRAZY! He sights that he's afraid the Packers will only out the 2nd round tender on Tonyan and that one of the teams highest in the draft order will get Tonyan to sign a contract that the Packers can match and we'll lose Tonyan.

If a team high in the draft order is stupid enough to give up a 2nd and a big contract to Tonyan, you take it and RUN!

Hell, I'm not sure they'd even get a low 4th Comp pick for him... losing him one year early, going up two rounds, and savings money, I'd do it!

I get it, Tonyan is efficient, rarely dropping passes that go his way, but he also has a system that's very good at helping the TE get open, and Tonyan still doesn't get high volume of passes because he's solid role player, not a huge play maker that consistently beats quality single coverage one on one without scheme.

I think Tonyan is worth the price of a tender to give the other TEs another year of experience, and maybe get a Comp pick out of him. But you offer me a 3rd (even a low 3rd) for him, and nice working for you Tonyan. I don't know why this guy wouldn't let him go for a high 2nd, just crazy to me.


Then again, his quote at the bottom
I guess we shouldn't of selected Aaron Rodgers then... G Logan Mankins or one of the busts at a needed position would of been so much better.

Originally Posted by: Beast 



he is always wrong. always looking for shock value and web clicks.
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earthquake
3 years ago
Occasionally I make the mistake of clicking on a TotalPackers article on the side bar. Usually two sentences in I realize what I've done and close the tab. Their writers have less football IQ than the Vikings trolls in the PFT comments section.
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Mucky Tundra
3 years ago

Is he even needed?

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 



Well, I don't think he a drop all year long. So he's pretty reliable when you throw it to him.
“Nah. I like having the island. It’s pretty cool...not too many visitors”
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Zero2Cool
3 years ago

Well, I don't think he a drop all year long. So he's pretty reliable when you throw it to him.

Originally Posted by: Mucky Tundra 



Thanks for reading the thread. As for your comment, I would just like to say I didn't have a single drop all year long either.
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