Zero2Cool
3 years ago

I was going to suggest a lower round tender than a second as well, but then I looked into it and it seems like only first, second, and original rounder tenders are the options available. Unless I'm missing something here.

Lazard is another guy that might warrant a second round tender. Or not, it will be interesting to see what happens. I haven't really spent much time looking into it but I can't remember these sort of UDFAs getting high tenders from the packers in the past.

I just looked up what they did with Sam Shields in 2013, this was coming off a 10 game, 8 start season for him when it looked like he might be a good option for one of the starting corner positions, they gave him a 2nd round tender before signing him to a 4 year deal the next season. Lazard and Tonyan could be in similar situations.

I would feel better about offering Tonyan a lower tender than a second if Jace Sternberger had shown more promise/didn't have the issues with concusions. I'm not sure if he'll ever work out. As WPR mentioned I don't think Josiah Deguara, who is more of an Hback, really plays the same position. So if they don't get Tonyan, we're looking at replacing his production with Dominique Dafney, a draft pick, another UDFA, or maybe a veteran FA (who won't cost much less than a second round tender, probably).

All that said I tend to agree, this year with the low cap I don't think it's the end of the world if they don't sign him, but I'm guessing they find a way to work it out.

Originally Posted by: earthquake 


I don't know what I was smoking.
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Cheesey
3 years ago

Aaron Jones is proven, but why bring him up? I asked about Tonyan. And Tonyan had one good year. We have at least two draft picks at TE that are on rookie deals yet. The cost of bringing Tonyan back vs the two recently drafted TE's value is where I'm thinking.

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 



I’m pretty sure you are smart enough to figure out why I brought up Jones. But in case you are serious, here goes: the Packers were one game away from the Super Bowl, two years in a row. Last year, the #1 offense. So does dismantling the offense by getting rid of Jones AND the best TE we have had in many years make sense? Instead of making it better, throw out your best guys and HOPE that someone can make up the losses? Jared Cook was the last decent TE we had. And look how the TE production dropped off the cliff after they let him go. Tonyan made many big plays last year. So can they get by without him? Of course. They could “get by” without Aaron Rodgers too. But if you think that wouldn’t amount to a lot more losses, then you must be smoking something.😁
Now you will probably say, “why did you bring up Aaron Rodgers?”
Just making a point that you can get by without any certain player. But if getting by is all you want, you might as well cheer for the Detroit Lions.
(Now I hear “why did you bring up the Lions???”)
Because they suck year after year, and never even sniffed a Super Bowl. Is that what we want back here? Just getting by?
I don’t.

Zero2Cool
3 years ago

I’m pretty sure you are smart enough to figure out why I brought up Jones. But in case you are serious, here goes: the Packers were one game away from the Super Bowl, two years in a row. Last year, the #1 offense. So does dismantling the offense by getting rid of Jones AND the best TE we have had in many years make sense? Instead of making it better, throw out your best guys and HOPE that someone can make up the losses? Jared Cook was the last decent TE we had. And look how the TE production dropped off the cliff after they let him go. Tonyan made many big plays last year. So can they get by without him? Of course. They could “get by” without Aaron Rodgers too. But if you think that wouldn’t amount to a lot more losses, then you must be smoking something.😁
Now you will probably say, “why did you bring up Aaron Rodgers?”
Just making a point that you can get by without any certain player. But if getting by is all you want, you might as well cheer for the Detroit Lions.
(Now I hear “why did you bring up the Lions???”)
Because they suck year after year, and never even sniffed a Super Bowl. Is that what we want back here? Just getting by?
I don’t.

Originally Posted by: Cheesey 


You're pretty sure I'm smart enough to figure out why you brought up Aaron Jones? Quite condescending there, and not necessary.

Robert Tonyan is going to be 27 years old in couple months and had one good season. Does that mean he's worth ~$4 million in 2021? 🤷‍♂️ I don't know. I think the system we employ on offense needs a very good OL and WR who are willing to block (e.g. Allen Lazard). And in any system if you have an amazing QB that helps cover up things and makes some positions (e.g. WR, TE) look better than they are.

We have Jace Sternberger and Josiah Deguara on rookie contracts. Josiah Deguara was starting to show why he was drafted before his injury. Can he regain that form? Can he elevate his game? I don't know, but we did draft a TE in the third round back-to-back years. We have to get something for them on the field -- or cut their asses.

I also wonder if they bring Marcedes Lewis back one more year. Based on Matt LaFleur and Aaron Rodgers comments, I think Lewis will be back one more year on a team-friendly contract.

A second round tender is $3,384,000 for a TE. Right now the Packers are something like $4 million over the salary cap. They use top 51 for the deadline. I just don't feel it's a great us of money for 2021 with the positions that I think we need more help.

Zero2Cool
3 years ago

Yeah, I think given the importance of TEs in this scheme, the 2nd round tender could make some sense for Tonyan. He had a good year and it's not a significant price to pay for a starting TE. For context, the 16 highest paid TE has an average contract value of about $5m, while the 2nd round tender is $3.26m, so we're talking about below-average starter money. The original round tender is $2.13m, so a difference of a little over 1.1m. They get no compensation if they give him the original round tender and another team snatches him up, since he was an UDFA.

They could save a bit by using the original round tender but that has some risk to it of course. Though with the cap situation this year, I'm not sure how they would feel about the extra cost for the 2nd round tender. They may not think it's worth it. The flip side is a lot of other teams have cap issues and may not have the cash to throw at an oft-injured UDFA TE who has only had one good season in a TE-friendly offense. It's hard to say and probably depends somewhat on what they do with restructuring and/or releasing other players. But I would expect the Packers' front office has a good bead on this, so if they give him the original round tender, it's likely low risk.

I could see them signing him to something like a 2 or 3 year deal to spread the cap hit over later years too.

Originally Posted by: earthquake 


I do think the offense is TE-friendly and we have drafted a TE back to back years in the third round. That feels like a strong investment in the position.

Something else that concerns with me about players who had their one good season in 2020 is there weren't many fans in the stands -- if any. We hear all the time about players who close down when the lights are on -- or in other words when fans are around. Players often times light it up in practice, but flop in games. We also hear about guys cashing in big and then flopping.

I don't believe Tonyan is one of these guys, but it's just in general something I am curious about. I'm not saying Tonyan is one of these guys because I think he has ascended a bit each year in the league.
go.pack.go.
3 years ago
Just a thought...

If it were so easy to replace Tonyan with a draft pick, why haven’t we had a decent (or even average) tight end since Finley?

Keep him.
Zero2Cool
3 years ago

Just a thought...

If it were so easy to replace Tonyan with a draft pick, why haven’t we had a decent (or even average) tight end since Finley?

Keep him.

Originally Posted by: go.pack.go. 


Good thought. Although I'm not sure anyone said it'd be easy to replace him. It just might be easier to replace TE production with the two third round pick TE currently on the roster than say RB or C. 🤷🏼‍♂️

The salary cap makes it so teams can't keep everyone. 😕
Cheesey
3 years ago

You're pretty sure I'm smart enough to figure out why you brought up Aaron Jones? Quite condescending there, and not necessary.

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 



Wow.....I’m sorry you see it that way, Kevin.
I did say I thought you were smart enough to figure out why I brought up Jones. I didn’t say you were stupid. I sure wasn’t trying to be condescending.

TE and RB, seems a lot of people think you can just plug any body in there, and be just fine. I think the not so distant past proves otherwise. Yes, you can’t keep everyone,
So then, why not cut the TEs that haven’t produced, and pay to keep the guy that has?
To me it’s obvious that this offense is much better with Tonyan then without him.
Again, we haven’t had a productive TE since Cook. And this offense needs one.
Just my humble opinion.
And again, I apologize if you thought I was trying to be condescending , because I wasn’t.
That’s one of the problems with just reading words on a screen.
Had we actually been in the same room and conversing, I seriously don’t think you would have taken my comments that way.

earthquake
3 years ago
Jace Sternberger has a 1.13m cap hit this season, and cutting him would trigger a 503K dead money hit, resulting in a cap savings of 628K. That's about half as much as the difference between the second and original round tender for Tonyan. This doesn't give the Packers much cap space to play with, and they rarely give up on draft picks after only two years - practically never when it comes to the first 3 rounds - so I would say there is little chance of this happening.

Additionally, Sternberger has a cap hit of 1.25m in 2022, so the next two years are very affordable if he gets it together this year. There's too much upside to keeping him at this point.

Pretty much all of the negative things we can say about Sternberger, we could have said about Tonyan last year. A guy that appears to have all the physical abilities, but injuries and an inability to get on the field have hampered his development. Sternberger has had particularly bad luck, getting that concussion in training camp in his rookie year on a dirty hit. Then his second year he didn't get a proper offseason/training camp/etc due to covid. If 2021 has any semblance of a normal year, it could be very positive for Sternberger's development. Most people who know about the position say TEs generally take a couple years to develop at the pro level. I wouldn't bet on him becoming a significant contributor this year (just like I wouldn't have bet on Tonyan last offseason), but again, the upside is there so I think him being cut before camp is unlikely. If he stinks it up in camp, I could see him failing to make the team, and this would give them more cap savings too (less dead money for a post June 1st cut), but that's likely too late to factor into Tonyan's situation.

Now, if they need to make a move (or not make a move) to afford Tonyan, I think it's more likely that they don't bring back Marcades Lewis. Lewis has had a cap hit of about 2.2m each of the last 3 seasons. But Lewis, like Deguara, practically plays a different position than Tonyan and Sternberger. Lewis being more of a 6th offensive lineman at this point in his career.

Thinking about this more I will make a prediction: Tonyan gets the original round tender, the Packers manage to hold onto him, and they go into the season with both Tonyan and Sternberger on the roster. Not exactly a bold prediction, but that's how I see it playing out.
blank
beast
3 years ago
Yes, it's worth paying Tonyan $4 million to have him another year, so he improve on his stats, have a good year for the Packers and hopefully get us a 4th or 5th round comp pick the following year.

All while giving Dugara, Daffney and maybe Sternberger another year to develop, so that hopefully they have one full year of development (Sternberger still hasn't had one fully healthy year)... but let one of them develop and hopefully start breaking out the second half of the season.


As for Lazard, he's not a TE... and he doesn't have three years experience yet, but I'm sure he'll be a 2nd round tender too if he becomes an RFA next year.
Zero2Cool
3 years ago

Yes, it's worth paying Tonyan $4 million to have him another year, so he improve on his stats, have a good year for the Packers and hopefully get us a 4th or 5th round comp pick the following year.

All while giving Dugara, Daffney and maybe Sternberger another year to develop, so that hopefully they have one full year of development (Sternberger still hasn't had one fully healthy year)... but let one of them develop and hopefully start breaking out the second half of the season.


As for Lazard, he's not a TE... and he doesn't have three years experience yet, but I'm sure he'll be a 2nd round tender too if he becomes an RFA next year.

Originally Posted by: beast 



I'm not disputing this or saying he's not -- just asking a question. Why do you think TE Tonyan is worth $4 million? You mentioned he improved his stats and had a good 2020 season. I don't know why, but I am really hung up on the OL. I'm also probably too hopeful on Josiah De

Maybe replacing Corey Linsley is going to be easier than I think? When watching that NFC Championship game -- I saw and OL just get manhandled and that was with Linsley, an All-Pro at Center. We'll get David Bakhtiari back, which absolutely helps.

You mentioned Allen Lazard. He's entering his fourth season coming off back to back solid seasons. What we can't see from stats is how crazy good of a blocker he is and how good he is at picking out DB's. This isn't my word, it's the words of the coaches and Aaron Rodgers. Of course, I saw it on replays, but only after it was pointed out, lol.

As of right now, the Packers are $1 million below the salary cap.
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