Announcement PH Beta → Check it out! Click Me! (you might be see "unsafe", but it is safe)
Nonstopdrivel
6 years ago
As we all know (or should know, anyway), the NFL passer rating is strictly a measure of passing efficiency; it does not take into consideration a quarterback's rushing statistics. The four statistical categories that comprise the NFL passer rating are completion percentage, yards per attempt, touchdowns per attempt, and interceptions per attempt. The formula was designed in the 1970s to rate an average performance for a quarterback of that era as 66.7 and an excellent performance as 100.0.

The nice thing about this formula is it is an "absolute" measure that allows us to compare quarterback passing performances across eras. The disadvantage is that it the scale is artificially flattened at both ends, such that it's impossible to get higher than a 158.3 or lower than a 0.0, and it doesn't take into consideration a quarterback's rushing attempts or his fumbles. It's a passer rating, not a quarterback rating. The other problem is that it fails to account for season-to-season variation in leaguewide performance, so it makes it more difficult to get a feel for how quarterbacks are performing relative to each other on a year-to-date basis. For example, a passer rating of 110.0 looks great on paper, and if the league average is 85.0, it really is impressive; but if the league average is 105.0 this year, a 110.0 rating doesn't stand out nearly so much.

For these reasons, I thought I would try my hand at designing a more open-ended, relative quarterback rating system that would take passing, rushing, and turnovers into consideration while minimizing the effects of changes in the landscape of the league from season to season.

Below is a table comparing three different preliminary versions of the rating system, so you can get a feel for how they vary in the results they return. I want to get your feedback as to which one you think returns the most useful results and/or your suggestions for ways to improve the formulas further.

Rating a weights the following statistical categories equally: yards per passing attempt, yards per rushing attempt, touchdown:turnover ratio, and completion percentage. The weighting of the rushing category hurts quarterbacks who are statues in the pocket, while the inclusion of completion percentage favors dink-and-dunk quarterbacks.

Rating b weights the following statistical categories equally: yards per play, touchdown:turnover ratio, and completion percentage. Lumping rushing and passing together in a single category like this inherently weights rushing and passing yardage by the number of attempts; this favors immobile quarterbacks at the expense of rushing quarterbacks, since not even the most run-happy quarterback rushes nearly as often as he passes.

Rating c weights the following statistical categories equally: yards per play and touchdown:turnover ratio. The advantage of this method is its simplicity; it measures a quarterback's efficiency at moving the ball down the field and avoiding turnovers. The disadvantage is that it could arguably be considered more of an offensive rating than a quarterback rating, although it really isn't, since it ignores rushes by anyone not the quarterback.

It's worth emphasizing that this is a relative quarterback rating. It's not based on a body of statistics from prior seasons -- it rates quarterbacks against each other with respect to their relative performances this year. It gives you the ability to more consistently and objectively define terms like "elite" and "mediocre" from season to season. If you want to define an elite quarterback as one whose performance is in the 95th percentile or above (my personal definition), then it's obvious that there is only one quarterback in the league this year who is playing at an elite level across statistical categories.

Player			  Rating a	  Rating b 	  Rating c

Drew Brees		    81.05		99.43		104.49
Philip Rivers		51.86		65.77		 69.45
Patrick Mahomes		62.02		64.85		 68.53
Jared Goff		    59.16		65.98		 68.06
Ryan Fitzpatrick	61.65		63.52		 66.38
Matt Ryan		    61.16		65.37		 62.97
Mitchell Trubisky	61.32		54.96		 56.01
Aaron Rodgers		52.54		50.39		 55.95
Russell Wilson		58.92		55.25		 55.67
Deshaun Watson		56.45		53.73		 55.09
Ben Roethlisberger	51.60		53.65		 53.12
Jimmy Garoppolo		47.61		46.52		 52.46
Carson Wentz		56.39		58.17		 52.33
Jameis Winston		54.08		50.37		 50.05
Derek Carr		    50.03		55.31		 47.27
Tom Brady		    43.06		48.72		 47.12
Cam Newton	     	54.44		51.94		 46.84
Eli Manning		    44.76		50.94		 46.74
Andy Dalton	     	46.58		46.07		 46.38
Kirk Cousins		50.89		54.15		 45.84
Case Keenum		    45.94		46.04		 45.57
Ryan Tannehill		50.96		48.28		 45.37
Marcus Mariota		53.22		48.98		 44.72
Matthew Stafford	46.90		48.63		 44.51
Blake Bortles		49.71		42.94		 44.47
C.J. Beathard		43.25		41.42		 43.58
Baker Mayfield		46.90		42.44		 42.94
Dak Prescott		49.39		44.72		 42.81
Alex Smith		    45.39		44.02		 41.76
Andrew Luck		    44.55		46.15		 41.56
Brock Osweiler		41.37		43.14		 41.38
Joe Flacco		    37.65		38.57		 38.08
Sam Darnold	    	31.91		30.52		 35.57
Tyrod Taylor		37.20		23.52		 33.72
Josh Rosen		    36.32		29.93		 33.45
Josh Allen		    33.77		25.63		 29.77


Legend:
		  Standard deviations 
Scale	            from mean      Percentile      Evaluation
 100                    +3.0            99.9         Stellar
  50                     0.0            50.0         Average
   0                    -3.0             0.1         Shitty

If anyone wants an in-depth description of the mathematics behind the three rating systems, I'll be happy to provide it.

What do you people think? What did I get right? What did I get wrong? What did I miss that I should have included, or what did I include that I should have left out?
UserPostedImage
Zero2Cool
6 years ago
Somehow, plays per turn over at the fault of QB.
Passes that hit receivers hands and should have been caught, count as completion.
Passes that were tipped and picked off, do not count as even a pass attempt.
Passes thrown away due to coverage.
Sack ownership.
UserPostedImage
Nonstopdrivel
6 years ago
A few things that stand out to me:

1) When it comes to efficiency, Drew Brees is absolutely the class of the NFL this year. There is no one remotely on his level. These ratings look favorably on quarterbacks who protect the football, and no one is protecting the ball as well as Brees this season. His 24.0 TD:TO ratio is probably unprecedented in league history. (By way of comparison, Philip Rivers has the next best ratio at 5.3.) Not to mention Brees' 77.3 completion percentage is 6 points higher than Derek Carr's (71.5) and Kirk Cousins' (71.3). That is simply unearthly. Brees is probably going to run away with the MVP vote his year, if Mahomes doesn't steal it from under his nose.

2) Aaron Rodgers' pedestrian yardage averages are dragging down his ratings; in both passing and rushing, he has been thoroughly middle-of-the-road this year. More importantly, his three lost fumbles loom large. If it weren't for the lost fumbles, he'd be a top-three quarterback this season in all three systems. It's just hard to compete with a quarterback who's only lost the football once this season despite passing over 33 times a game. Remember, these are relative systems. If Brees suddenly starts losing the football , Rodgers' rating will shoot back up.

3) Rookies will be rookies. Three of the bottom five and four of the bottom ten quarterbacks so far this season are rookies. On the other hand, given the right coaching, quarterbacks can develop quickly: two of the top five quarterbacks have been in the league less than three full seasons.
UserPostedImage
Nonstopdrivel
6 years ago

Somehow, plays per turn over at the fault of QB.

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 


What?

Passes that hit receivers hands and should have been caught, count as completion.
Passes that were tipped and picked off, do not count as even a pass attempt.

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 


Ha! You have the money to hire an army of nerds to watch tape?

Passes thrown away due to coverage.

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 


This would be feasible if I had a parser to collect that kind of data from the play-by-plays posted on the NFL website. I worked on one with a buddy a few years ago and even got it working reasonably well, but I eventually had to abandon the project.

Sack ownership.

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 


Sacks aren't included in this rating system yet. I was thinking of putting them in there, but again, without someone to watch tape, it would be hard to decide which sacks were the fault of the line and which were the fault of the quarterback. In the end, I suppose, all quarterback rating systems end up being offensive rating systems.

UserPostedImage
Zero2Cool
6 years ago
Plays the QB is responsible for the turnover. Fumble because QB is dumb. Interception because he threw it into coverage. Exclude tip at line passes caught and picked. Let's get serious with this! Let's go!


Parsing the data isn't the hard part. It's storing in a manner that's retrievable that caused me headaches.
UserPostedImage
Nonstopdrivel
6 years ago
It's not hard designing a parser that will get the data 90% or 95% right. The hard part is that last 5% or 10%. There are so many subtle outliers. A few NFL statisticians seem to have a fondness for writing up plays in their own idiosyncratic ways; some of them use slightly nonstandard phrasing, others include details most other statisticians don't, and a few include less information than others. Those are the cases on which the parser tends to gag, and although it's only a few plays a week, it adds up over the course of the season. Some of the errors are subtle, so you have to be on the lookout and do a lot manual crosschecking while you're designing the parser rules. But it's definitely something I'd love to get operational one of these days. NFLGSIS makes it very easy to download the data.

Here's a fun example:

(5:04) (Shotgun) D.Brees pass short right to M.Thomas for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 
Brees throws 501st career touchdown pass.

UserPostedImage
Nonstopdrivel
6 years ago
Here are some examples (two consecutive plays, actually) where the statistician judges the receiver to be at fault for an incompletion:

(11:36) (Shotgun) D.Anderson pass incomplete short middle to C.Ivory. 
Dropped at NE 41, crossing from right.
(11:31) (Shotgun) D.Anderson pass incomplete short right to K.Benjamin. 
Through receiver's hands, along sideline at NE 30. Penalty on BUF-K.Benjamin, 
Offensive Pass Interference, declined.

So it's certainly doable.

UserPostedImage
Zero2Cool
6 years ago
You can do it! I got faith in you.
UserPostedImage
Fan Shout
beast (1h) : I was rooting for the Bears to win and hurt their draft pick status
Zero2Cool (2h) : Forgot there was even a game last night haha
TheKanataThrilla (2h) : That was terrible.
TheKanataThrilla (2h) : Watching that game in its entirety yesterday is proof positive that I am a football addict.
beast (2h) : And horrible time management multiple times... and not being able to score more than 3 points on a team with talent
beast (2h) : Realizing the Bears didn't fix it from the previous week and do the same thing, getting the game to overtime
beast (2h) : They probably are not tanking, but they've absolutely mismanagement some things, such as Vikings seeing the Packers blocked FG and realizing
Zero2Cool (3h) : Crazy of Bears to have that mindset that is
Zero2Cool (3h) : Hail Mary stop away from 5 - 2. Not sure how that flips to tanking. Crazy mindset if true
beast (4h) : I've quietly questioned if Bears are tanking on purpose... they suddenly got a lot worse with some simple concepts like 101 clock management
wpr (6h) : Watching bares fans melt down over how putrid their team is, so enjoyable. It's the gift that keeps on giving.
Mucky Tundra (13h) : The Seattle Seahawks defeat the Chicago Bears 6-3. Jason Myers had 6 RBIs for Seattle while Cairo Santos had 3 RBI for Chicago
beast (14h) : Not nessarily, he might of been injured either way. He's playing about 50% of the games the last 4 years
Zero2Cool (21h) : If they'd been more patient with him, he'd be back already. Putting him out there vs Bears caused him to tweak it and here we are.
packerfanoutwest (21h) : well this is his last season with the PAck, book it
beast (22h) : Sounds like no Alexander (again), I'm wondering if his time with the Packers is done
Zero2Cool (26-Dec) : Could ban beast and I still don't think anyone catches him.
Mucky Tundra (26-Dec) : Houston getting dog walked by Baltimore
packerfanoutwest (25-Dec) : Feliz Navidad!
Zero2Cool (25-Dec) : Merry Christmas!
beast (25-Dec) : Merry Christmas 🎄🎁
beast (24-Dec) : Sounds like no serious injuries from the Saints game and Jacobs and Watson should play in the Vikings game
packerfanoutwest (24-Dec) : both games Watson missed, Packers won
Martha Careful (24-Dec) : I hope all of you have a Merry Christmas!
Mucky Tundra (24-Dec) : Oh I know about Jacobs, I just couldn't pass up an opportunity to mimic Zero lol
buckeyepackfan (24-Dec) : Jacobs was just sat down, Watson re-injured that knee that kept him out 1 game earlier
buckeyepackfan (24-Dec) : I needed .14 that's. .14 points for the whole 4th quarter to win and go to the SB. Lol
Mucky Tundra (24-Dec) : Jacobs gonna be OK???
Zero2Cool (24-Dec) : Watson gonna be OK???
packerfanoutwest (24-Dec) : Inactives tonight for the Pack: Alexander- knee Bullard - ankle Williams - quad Walker -ankle Monk Heath
packerfanoutwest (24-Dec) : No Jaire, but hopefully the front 7 destroys the line of scrimmage & forces Rattler into a few passes to McKinney.
packerfanoutwest (24-Dec) : minny could be #1 seed and the Lions #5 seed
Zero2Cool (23-Dec) : We'd have same Division and Conference records. Strength of schedule we edge them
Zero2Cool (23-Dec) : I just checked. What tie breaker?
bboystyle (23-Dec) : yes its possible but unlikely. If we do get the 5th, we face the NFCS winner
Zero2Cool (23-Dec) : Ahh, ok.
bboystyle (23-Dec) : yes due to tie breaker
Zero2Cool (23-Dec) : I mean, unlikely, yes, but mathematically, 5th is possible by what I'm reading.
Zero2Cool (23-Dec) : If Vikings lose out, Packers win out, Packers get 5th, right?
bboystyle (23-Dec) : Minny isnt going to lose out so 5th seed is out of the equation. We are playing for the 6th or 7th seed which makes no difference
Mucky Tundra (23-Dec) : beast, the ad revenue goes to the broadcast company but they gotta pay to air the game on their channel/network
beast (23-Dec) : If we win tonight the game is still relative in terms of 5th, 6th or 7th seed... win and it's 5th or 6th, lose and it's 6th or 7th
beast (23-Dec) : Mucky, I thought the ad revenue went to the broadcasting companies or the NFL, at least not directly
Zero2Cool (23-Dec) : I think the revenue share is moot, isn't it? That's the CBA an Salary Cap handling that.
bboystyle (23-Dec) : i mean game becomes irrelevant if we win tonight. Just a game where we are trying to play spoilers to Vikings chance at the #1 seed
Mucky Tundra (23-Dec) : beast, I would guess ad revenue from more eyes watching tv
Zero2Cool (23-Dec) : I would think it would hurt the home team because people would have to cancel last minute maybe? i dunno
beast (23-Dec) : I agree that it's BS for fans planning on going to the game. But how does it bring in more money? I'm guessing indirectly?
packerfanoutwest (23-Dec) : bs on flexing the game....they do it for the $$league$$, not the hometown fans
Zero2Cool (23-Dec) : I see what you did there Mucky
Please sign in to use Fan Shout
2024 Packers Schedule
Friday, Sep 6 @ 7:15 PM
Eagles
Sunday, Sep 15 @ 12:00 PM
COLTS
Sunday, Sep 22 @ 12:00 PM
Titans
Sunday, Sep 29 @ 12:00 PM
VIKINGS
Sunday, Oct 6 @ 3:25 PM
Rams
Sunday, Oct 13 @ 12:00 PM
CARDINALS
Sunday, Oct 20 @ 12:00 PM
TEXANS
Sunday, Oct 27 @ 12:00 PM
Jaguars
Sunday, Nov 3 @ 3:25 PM
LIONS
Sunday, Nov 17 @ 12:00 PM
Bears
Sunday, Nov 24 @ 3:25 PM
49ERS
Thursday, Nov 28 @ 7:20 PM
DOLPHINS
Thursday, Dec 5 @ 7:15 PM
Lions
Sunday, Dec 15 @ 7:20 PM
Seahawks
Monday, Dec 23 @ 7:15 PM
SAINTS
Sunday, Dec 29 @ 3:25 PM
Vikings
Saturday, Jan 4 @ 11:00 PM
BEARS
Recent Topics
3m / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

5m / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

1h / Random Babble / Martha Careful

1h / Around The NFL / Martha Careful

3h / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

10h / Green Bay Packers Talk / Mucky Tundra

10h / Random Babble / Mucky Tundra

16h / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

25-Dec / Featured Content / Zero2Cool

25-Dec / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

25-Dec / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

25-Dec / GameDay Threads / bboystyle

24-Dec / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

24-Dec / Random Babble / beast

24-Dec / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

Headlines
Copyright © 2006 - 2024 PackersHome.com™. All Rights Reserved.