It sounds like Mike Pettine's defense is different than I originally thought it was going to be. So they might not need the LB/SS or penetrating ILB like I thought, especially if they're playing to use Clay Matthews as the penetrating ILB... which might mean they could also like Marcus Davenport more than I thought. But here was my mock draft.
Back GroundSounds like Defensive Coordinator Mike Pettine will be bringing back the aggressive 3-4 defense which ask players to be versatile and physical. Pettine has already said the OLBers will be asked to play in coverage more, which also might imply more blitzing from DBs and ILBers. This change could help some like Clay Matthews (more versatile, more surprises) and Jake Ryan (allow him to attack more, and react less), but might hurt some like Blake Martinez, who’ll be asked to deal with OL and man coverage more (when the old scheme might have been perfect for role for him).
Needs1. Cornerback: Williams and House aren’t young, and the position needs upgrades
2. Outside linebacker: Matthews and Perry aren’t cheap and the position needs to stay healthy (and upgrades)
3. Wide receiver: Losing Jordy Nelson and team needed more/better depth before that. (which is where this mock is weak at filling, but sorta hoping they signed a Vet WR before the draft)
4. Coverage LB: Losing Joe Thomas and Morgan Burnett (as Josh Jones is now going to be playing more SS and less LB) has opened up a big hole for a coverage LB type. Also whenever Mike Pettine has joined a new NFL team, they have always gotten (FA or Draft) a new athletic ILB, and since history repeats, I'm guessing it's going to happen again.
Mock DraftDay 1
1 14 OLB Harold Landry, Boston College, 6-2, 252
Day 2
2 45 CB Isaiah Oliver, Colorado, 6-0, 201
3 76 LB/SS Shaquem Griffin, Central Florida, 6-0, 227
Day 3
4 101 OT Jamarco Jones, Ohio State, 6-4, 299
4 133 TE Christopher Herndon, Miami (FL), 6-4, 253
5 138 ILB Hercules Mataafa, Washington State, 6-2, 254
5 172 CB Parry Nickerson, Tulane, 5-10, 182
5 174 WR/TE Allen Lazard, Iowa State, 6-5, 227
6 186 WR Justin Watson, Pennsylvania, 6-2, 215
6 207 OL Dejon Allen, Hawaii, 6-2, 295
7 232 OT Brett Toth, Army, 6-6, 291
7 239 FS Natrell Jamerson, Wisconsin, 5-11, 201
Draft In-depthOLB Harold Landry, Boston College, 6-2, 252I think the new defensive scheme calls for quick, physical and versatile. While others, such as Marcus Davenport, might have more upside potential, he'll need a team to keep things simple while he develops. Landry is ready to go now and is more developed, and more versatile, meaning he should be ready to help a more complex defense much much sooner. Scots have knock Landry for relying on his quickness too much, but most college players weren't able to stop it, and you can use that to set up other moves, which Landry has shown, he just doesn't use them as often as some would like.
CB Isaiah Oliver, Colorado, 6-0, 201Packers need CBs, and IMO one (or more) of the top 8 in this draft should fall to the 40s draft selections. Currently Oliver seems to be getting the least amount of hype. Oliver is raw and needs more experience and growth, but he’s got all the physical tools, including good long speed and 33.5 inch-arms, which is 7th longest for a CB at the combine since 1999… and should give him an edge in press bump and run coverage which is expected in the new scheme.
ILB/SS Shaquem Griffin, Central Florida, 6-0, 227Griffin is basically a large SS playing LB… and I’m expecting Griffin to be used multiple roles including as a man coverage ILB (like Joe Thomas/Fackrell) locking up one on one against a TE or RB (or spying a mobile QB) as well as a physical slot defender who’s just as likely to blitz off the edge as drop off into coverage (like Josh Jones last year). There are a ton of sub packages that could use a man with Griffin’s talents, especially if Josh Jones earns the starting SS spot.
OT Jamarco Jones, Ohio State, 6-4, 299Jones' style of play simply reminds me of Bakhriari's style. You're not going to see either dominant, or be pushing guys around or to the ground that often... but they just get to the defender and ride them, sticking to their block as long as they can. It's a finesse style, which is boring to watch, but can be very effective... as they simply get and stay in the way of a defender.
TE Christopher Herndon, Miami (FL), 6-4, 253Well built, almost like an oversized RB than the normal TE, which gives him both speed and power (though slow acceleration). For a TE, Herndon is a very good athletic that can make plays but is still very underdeveloped after backing up TE 1st round pick TE David Njoku for most of his career, and then an MCL injury in his one starting year. Of course, if you just look at pure potential Herndon could be taken in day 2 and long gone by this point.
ILB Hercules Mataafa, Washington State, 6-2, 254Mataafa played DT in college (yes, DT) and he was one of the best penetrating DTs in all of college football, with the quickest first step and get off. Everyone seems to agree that there is no way he’s playing DT in the NFL and they’re projecting him to edge rusher 4-3 DE or 3-4 OLB, where most think his lack of elite traits will make him struggle at a position he’s not used to playing at, nor dealing with OTs.
I have a different idea… the guy is used to attacking the interior (and was one of the best at it), so why not keep him in that role as a very aggressive blitzing ILB? Mataafa is one of the best I’ve seen at getting through the “trash” by using his quickness and contorting his body to get around blockers. It’s a project, but Mataafa was one of the best at getting to the ball in the interior, and very well known for his toughness and non-stop motor.
CB Parry Nickerson, Tulane, 5-10, 182Simply put, a more developed Sam Shields project. At Tulane, they left him on an Island all by himself and trust him to win with little to no help, and it doesn’t matter if you beat him deep, he’s going to recover and catch you before the ball gets there. I’m willing to possible draft this guy higher.
TE Allen Lazard, Iowa State, 6-5, 227Lazard was a very large, physical, possession WR in college, with good body control and hands. The problem is that Lazard might not be athletic enough to stay at WR in the NFL. Which is why I’m projecting him to move to TE, where he seems to have a similar body type to Jimmy Graham. Basically, a possible Richard Rodgers replacement.
WR Justin Watson, Pennsylvania, 6-2, 215The Packers have liked WRs that put up big numbers and shown good hands and routes, which is exactly what Watson has done. He’s still very raw, and does not have huge upsides, but he’s a jack of all trades, which at this point in the draft is good to find.
OL Dejon Allen, Hawaii, 6-2, 295Like all of the Packers OL selections (it seems) Allen played at LT in college. In the pros, he’s having to move to the interior, which he has played at some, including Center. Allen sticks to his blocks very well, which seems to be what the Packers prefer over dominating them. Allen is a PS guy for his rookie year.
OT Brett Toth, Army, 6-6, 291Toth has to serve two years with the Army before looking into the NFL, but still, he’s shown enough that I’d like to have the exclusive rights to him in two years. While Army is basically a run only offense, Toth has the physical traits to possible be very good in pass blocking (maybe even enough to stay at OT) while doing extremely well run blocking.
FS Natrell Jamerson, Wisconsin, 5-11, 201Playing in a similar defense in college should hopefully help Jamerson pick up the defense faster, while he has some very nice physical skill sets. He hasn’t put them all together yet, but maybe with a year on the practice squad he’ll be able to, or sooner if someone gets injured and he gets called up.