On this website, packershome? You or nerdmann saying that it happened doesn't count as evidence - Show me some plays where it's obvious what the progression on the play was, and that at the point in the play where he was on the short man, that the short man was open at that time. If it's 3rd and 2 and you have one person on a 2 yard route, one on a 5, and one on a 20 yard route (with progressions in that order), it doesn't count if the 2 yard receiver is open after Rodgers has already moved on to the next man in the progression. He wasn't open at the time, and Rodgers moved on. And with all the hand-wringing over how long Rodgers holds the ball and certain people (not you in this case) getting bent out of shape over the difference between 2.67 seconds and 2.5 seconds, I don't understand how people could then say "Well he should have gone back to the first man in the progression!" or "He should have stayed with the first man in the progression for longer!"

That's what I'm referring to when I'm talking about armchair quarterbacking. This idea that if someone is open, it's Rodgers' fault if he didn't see it, every time without fail. If Rodgers gets sacked, it's because he's holding the ball for too long (even if 0.02 seconds separates him from Tom Brady who everyone seems to have a hardon for). If he's not hitting someone underneath, it's because he's ignoring the gameplan and throwing it deep even if the stats don't seem to back up that he's throwing it deep more than most QBs (especially those on teams with Aaron Rodgers and a great WR corps).

Simply saying "he's ignoring his progressions!" doesn't make it true no matter how right you think you are. If it did, then clearly he's not ignoring his progressions a notable amount more than any other QB in the league because that's my observations and I'm damned sure I'm right too. Which is why I'm asking for something quantifiable and not opinions. Using your own opinions as evidence to back up your own opinions is circular reasoning.



I'd love comment on this once you've been bothered to address the various stats I've posted and parsed.

I don't have time to go through all these games. Everyone knows Rodgers hangs onto the ball. It is widely recognized as "part of his game." Cobb makes his money on those sand lot plays. Gary Ellerson even me tioned it on the post game show, will Cobb be as effective without those sandlot plays? Maybe, we'll see.

Obviously losing Aaron like this has taken an emotional toll on many of us as Packers fans. Hundley is in his 4th hear, it's time for him to get some reps. Let's see what he can do.

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It is easy too look at a video and pretend to know what play was called what the defense tendencies are where the passing window for each route and what the progressions are.

If there are 3 receivers in a pattern there are not just 3 pass options there could be 6-9 or more passing windows depending on which route combinations. Those passes would be thrown in under 2 seconds so it is impossible to progress each option 1by1. That is where pre-snap reads come in. The dlineman shifting one gap can close a window. Press coverage compared to off can change where the ball might be thrown. Lber positions.

Receivers may look open from the cheap seats but that doesn’t mean they were an option at that time.

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Everyone knows this makes Rodgers a better Quarterback, not a worse one. You hear that all the time from people that make their living on football as opposed to random people on the internet. See how these things work? Really wish we could just stay on the subject of measurables instead of "everyone knows..." or "you can see plain as day [thing that conflicts with measurable statistics]".

But he's supposed to always see the open guy and also get the ball out in <2.5 seconds.

If there's one thing I learned in the two or three years I spent analyzing football statistics in excruciating depth, it's that the things "everybody knows" are almost always flat wrong. And that's doubly true for the drivel spewed by the talking heads before, during, and after the game. When it comes to football at least, perception is very often the furthest thing from reality.

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The "ability" to make things happen on the fly when a play breaks down, is different from passing up guys who are open, trying to force it deep on a sandlot play.

I mean yeah, that's a helpful skill for a QB. But it's not a replacement for running the offense.

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Here's one I searched for. You can read the thread and try to get a video of the play and discuss it. A few weeks ago I recognized a play from one of Mike's old playbooks and provided the exact name of it, though I'm certain its called something else this year; but I didn't spend too much time looking. I've been posting these since 2015.

Now if you take the time to do this for 10-15 plays per game over a few years [or get your hands on an old GB playbook], you will see the concepts of which I speak show up with regularity in different combinations. Like looking right at first read to draw safety right away from later progressions on left; a WR running a Go to clear [with an alert in case 2 DBs cover one guy]; OL opening a window, the parallel read 2a/2b read; the hot read on the cross when WSL blitzes; etc. I am 99.9% certain I got this play nailed! There are some plays I watch over and over again and am not nearly as sure.

So like I said, if you want to discuss this or find another play I broke down and discuss it; then let's have at it. Just to say, "it cant be done, because I said so," is meaningless childish caddy cliquey blather 😂; it offers nothing to a mature intellectual discussion and probably designed to sabotage what could be a good thread, some are afraid to contribute because of this. Why some do this: i just dont have a clue. If you have an argument to the contrary, then support it like a man [or a woman] [And you usually do Porforis] you might actually learn something...you might actually be able to impart some of your wisdom.

Remember DC staffs, engage in this exact process to identify the progressions. hen after they see the same play 3-4-5 times they can begin to identify the post snap reads on the routes.

And stats wont help us with this. Remember what Mike says, "stats are for losers." He's saying plays and players are not graded on the result and stats measure results. Opinions backed by stats can often be wrong!

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This is a perfect example of the difference between MVP Rodgers and today Rodgers. Today Rodgers made several errors that MVP would not have made. See, this is not just an MVP guy that made a bad play; it is the play of a guy who has substantially forgotten how to play QB in the system. And Smokey, it is sabotage, according to this long-winded SOB LOL [BTW, that was funny as hell and kinda true]; that is why I’m so pissed at the guy.

Yes, there is a tiny bit of speculation; but it entirely based on the belief that Jordy ran a correct route.

Cobb is in backfield, he goes to sticks and curls in.

Davis is wide left, [he is the “crosser” open after clearing Kendricks].

Cook inside left, he runs a deep In mirroring Cobb route just 1 line deeper.

Abby was slot right, he ran a deep fade.

Nelson Wide left, ran an in-stop at sticks [Warhawk your Nelson cutting of his route theory is innovative thinking and possible. I dont think this is the case because: Jordy made his move for separation, so the ball was coming right then and there; if Jordy sees DAvis, he dont know if Rodgers is throwing his way and cutting off the route is risky as the ball might be on its way. Plus typically when McCarthy has WRs crossing toward each other, they are not running at the same level, because it means, for example if Jordy catches the ball, he'd be running right into the Will trailing Davis, guaranteeing Jordy's decapitation].

Read #1: was to Nelson. He was WIDE freakin’ open, there was a throwing lane and Rodgers didn’t even look his way. This a shame because with the single deep and only one other defender on that side of field if Nelson breaks a tackle he could go a long way. When Nelson was not targeted he is supposed to go to SL maybe 10 yards so as to interfere w/ 3rd read or deep fade.

Read #2a-2b: was to Cobb or Cook who ran parallel routes 1 line apart. There should only be one guy, the Mike, to cover the inside move of both of these guys and he cant.

Read #3: was to Davis after he clears Will [This was Barr who wasn’t there because he blitzed].

Rodgers was supposed to look right, and throw to Nelson. The secondary objective of looking right was to draw the safety right to cover Abby running the deep route, the safety at this point should have to guard against the post, he does not know Abby’s running a fade. A third objective was to gather intel to see how the Safety reacts and adjust the play in the second half.

Rodgers’ failure to look at Jordy and stare down his 2nd read caused the safety to crash down and double Cook who was not open; but Cobb was open! On TV this play was 2nd Q at 8:49, the replay shows Cobb had a step on his man, but Rodgers couldn’t throw because he didn’t have a lane. Also, if he had thrown it, because he was starring Cobb down, the Mike [Kendricks] was drifting toward Cobb and would have popped him.

Then Rodgers needed to man-up, stand in the pocket and deliver the ball to the 3rd read, who was open. And if he had delivered the ball to Davis, Rodgers would not have gotten hit. His fear was unjustified.

3rd and 4, all three reads were open, and 2 WIDE open, and we have to punt. Ridiculous!

Here’s Rodgers' mistakes:
1. Like a stupid rookie he starred down his target.

2. Like a stupid rookie he skipped his progressions.

3. Like a stupid rookie he sabotaged the gathering of intel; that might lead to a big play in 2nd half.

4. Like a good college QB w/o the stomach for the NFL, he too frightened of the rush to make next read.

5. He dealt with the blitz like a stupid rookie.

If this was pre-2015, Rodgers would have seen Barr blitz and instantly processed which WR would be open because of it. MVP Rodgers would have realized that Davis was gona be WIDE open after clearing Mike and he'd be off to the races. Can hear Collensworth now, “that’s why ya don’t blitz Aaron Rodgers, he’ll make ya pay... Rodgers looked the safety left and look at those blocks by Jordy and Abberderis, this is one well coached team, every one doing their job.”

Yes, WRs and OL will occasionally screw-up, but that only kills one play; ya got 2 more shots at the first down in that drive and 8 more drives to score. This offense is not simple; the receivers get open as well as any team’s receivers and there is ONLY ONE GUY on this O that is routinely screwing up and often to the extreme. Anyone who thinks the sputtering offense is due to anything but Rodgers is simply in denial.

I’d also love to know if this play was one of the “scripted” 3rd and 5ish plays, a play that during the week was worked on over and over. If so Rodgers is even a bigger dung head. The only screw-up other than multiple Rodgers’ ones was Taylor not clearing a lane for throw to Cobb; but that’s a tall order against DT Johnson. This play was executed very well, look how perfectly Nelson, Cook and Cobb choreographed their routes. First Jordy comes open and a split second later, the time for a progression to occur, Cook and Cobb look like a couple of Olympic synchronized swimmers. It was poetry. This is a well coached team!

I think we need a shorter character count for posts. ...

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500. 😁

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