Porforis
7 years ago

If Jordy was Jordy and Aaron was Aaron, I wouldn't like it, but I would dislike it less. But Jordy isn't the same and Aaron's head has been up his ass for two seasons now.

Originally Posted by: nerdmann 



Again, your perceptions simply don't match up with the facts. The only thing we should be concerned about is winning games. If Rodgers is dancing around in the pocket and holding the ball longer than you'd like him to but still executing and winning games, who cares? If Jordy is slower than he used to be but is using route-running and sure hands to compensate for that and performing close to the same, who cares? Winning is more important than playing with style. Yes I realize that statistics don't speak to absolutely everything but there's no other facts to go off of, and they mean more than emotional reactions to people's play styles.

Aaron Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers is on pace for a 64.9 completion percentage, 4321 yards, 37 TDs and 8 INTs for a quarterback rating of 100.3
We can all agree that last year was a relative stinker, but still good-ish by NFL standards at a 60.7 completion %, 3821 yards, 31 TDs and 8 INTs for a QBR of 92.7.

2014, when his head was not up his ass by your standards, a 65.6 yard completion percentage, 4,381 yards, 38TDs and 5 INTs. For a difference of 0.7% on completion percentage, 60 yards, 1 TD and 3 INTs versus what he's on pace for this year, which apparently makes the difference between not having his head up his ass and having his head up his ass.

2010, our superbowl year where I don't recall many people constantly bellyaching about Rodgers, 65.7 completion percentage, 3922 yards, 28 TDs and 11 INTs for a QBR of 101.2. +0.8 completion %, -399 yards, -9 TDs, and +3 INTs. I'll say hey, let's say Aaron's a stat whore this year and that's why there's so many more TDs because he won't hand it off, just for the sake of argument. Erase that big TD differential and the difference between 2010 and 2016 is close to the difference between 2016 and 2014.

Since Rodgers' has his head up his ass this season and last, but the implication is that he didn't in 2014, does that mean his head was doubly up his ass in 2010? I'm pretty sure it was you (apologies if it was not) that said we should trade Aaron away and start Huntley next season. Was that the case in 2010, and were you saying that we should trade Rodgers away and turn Matt Flynn into our franchise QB, who showed a lot more concrete performance in regular season games than Huntley?

Jordy Nelson

I'll disagree but not strongly on Jordy Nelson, personally I think he would have done much better this year if he wasn't still shaking off the rust for weeeeeeks earlier this year but that's a woulda coulda shoulda. Still, some perspective.

Jordy Nelson is on pace for 94 receptions for 1185 yards, 14 TDs.

Obviously he missed last year.

In 2014 (His best year by a wide margin), he had 98 receptions for 1519 yards and 13TDs. +4 receptions, +334 yards, -1 TD.

2011 was his second best year. 68 Receptions, 1263 yards, 15 TDs. -26 receptions, +78 yards, -1 TD. Since his YPC is so much higher than 2014 I'd still say that was a better year than this year.

His next best year was 85 receptions for 1314 yards and 8 TDs. -9 receptions, +129 yards, -6 TDs. A bit more yards but not the red zone threat he's been this year.

So basically this is his third best season. Big dropoff from 2014 but again, it was his best year by a wide margin so by your standards, Jordy wasn't "who he used to be" in every year but 2014 and to a much lesser extent 2011.
wpr
  • wpr
  • Preferred Member
7 years ago

Again, your perceptions simply don't match up with the facts. The only thing we should be concerned about is winning games. If Rodgers is dancing around in the pocket and holding the ball longer than you'd like him to but still executing and winning games, who cares? If Jordy is slower than he used to be but is using route-running and sure hands to compensate for that and performing close to the same, who cares? Winning is more important than playing with style. Yes I realize that statistics don't speak to absolutely everything but there's no other facts to go off of, and they mean more than emotional reactions to people's play styles.

Aaron Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers is on pace for a 64.9 completion percentage, 4321 yards, 37 TDs and 8 INTs for a quarterback rating of 100.3
We can all agree that last year was a relative stinker, but still good-ish by NFL standards at a 60.7 completion %, 3821 yards, 31 TDs and 8 INTs for a QBR of 92.7.

2014, when his head was not up his ass by your standards, a 65.6 yard completion percentage, 4,381 yards, 38TDs and 5 INTs. For a difference of 0.7% on completion percentage, 60 yards, 1 TD and 3 INTs versus what he's on pace for this year, which apparently makes the difference between not having his head up his ass and having his head up his ass.

2010, our superbowl year where I don't recall many people constantly bellyaching about Rodgers, 65.7 completion percentage, 3922 yards, 28 TDs and 11 INTs for a QBR of 101.2. +0.8 completion %, -399 yards, -9 TDs, and +3 INTs. I'll say hey, let's say Aaron's a stat whore this year and that's why there's so many more TDs because he won't hand it off, just for the sake of argument. Erase that big TD differential and the difference between 2010 and 2016 is close to the difference between 2016 and 2014.

Since Rodgers' has his head up his ass this season and last, but the implication is that he didn't in 2014, does that mean his head was doubly up his ass in 2010? I'm pretty sure it was you (apologies if it was not) that said we should trade Aaron away and start Huntley next season. Was that the case in 2010, and were you saying that we should trade Rodgers away and turn Matt Flynn into our franchise QB, who showed a lot more concrete performance in regular season games than Huntley?

Jordy Nelson

I'll disagree but not strongly on Jordy Nelson, personally I think he would have done much better this year if he wasn't still shaking off the rust for weeeeeeks earlier this year but that's a woulda coulda shoulda. Still, some perspective.

Jordy Nelson is on pace for 94 receptions for 1185 yards, 14 TDs.

Obviously he missed last year.

In 2014 (His best year by a wide margin), he had 98 receptions for 1519 yards and 13TDs. +4 receptions, +334 yards, -1 TD.

2011 was his second best year. 68 Receptions, 1263 yards, 15 TDs. -26 receptions, +78 yards, -1 TD. Since his YPC is so much higher than 2014 I'd still say that was a better year than this year.

His next best year was 85 receptions for 1314 yards and 8 TDs. -9 receptions, +129 yards, -6 TDs. A bit more yards but not the red zone threat he's been this year.

So basically this is his third best season. Big dropoff from 2014 but again, it was his best year by a wide margin so by your standards, Jordy wasn't "who he used to be" in every year but 2014 and to a much lesser extent 2011.

Originally Posted by: Porforis 



UserPostedImage

edited for better Yodaness.
UserPostedImage
Barfarn
7 years ago

Again, your perceptions simply don't match up with the facts. The only thing we should be concerned about is winning games. If Rodgers is dancing around in the pocket and holding the ball longer than you'd like him to but still executing and winning games, who cares?

Originally Posted by: Porforis 



You say the key is to win and then you cite stats; often there is an inverse correlation between good stats and winning. Calvin Johnson gone, suddenly the Lions are better, how about that?

Prescott a mediocre 16th with 3418 yards; yet first in wins with 11. Eff the stats.

And you don’t win by random players successfully freelancing; you win by 22 guys playing disciplined TEAM ball!

Stat wise Rodgers was unbelievable to tie game v. AZ; the reality is, it was STUPID. Statistically it wasn’t so pretty; but it was brilliant QB play to have two 17 play drives for scores in AZ game w/ Cobb and others out…BRILLIANT! That’s when I knew we were winning SB, Aaron was back; oops; but in last 1.25 Q of game dickhead Jay showed back up and, guess what, WE LOST.

I joked about Rodgers starting with a 3 and out v. Seattle; but on first down Rodgers passed on a guy open for 4-5 yards, scrambled and hit Jordy for 8. On 3rd and 2 he passed up an easy 4 yard completion for 1st and lasered one to Adams for a TD. Against Bears, Adams was wide open in the middle of the field for 18 or so yards and he probably would have got 10 more; but Rodgers heaved it to Jordy.

He’s successfully freelancing; but this is not why we won those 2 games; we won in spite of this horsecrap. Scoring a TD on 3 plays is infinitely less valuable then scoring a TD on 17.

Now people are talking about him being MVP, he makes pro bowl, and, guess what, he regressed against the Bears. Sure he can get away with it v. Bears; they suck. But, here’s the thing: if Rodgers continues to regress back to the same ole’ Jay he was for the last 1.5 years instead of progressing to being Aaron Rodgers; it will be IMPOSSIBLE for us to win 4 games in a row in playoffs…IMPOSSIBLE.

If you want wins then you want Rodgers to play within the offense.
mi_keys
7 years ago

Scoring a TD on 3 plays is infinitely less valuable then scoring a TD on 17.

Originally Posted by: Barfarn 



Actually, both are worth the same number of points.
Born and bred a cheesehead
Porforis
7 years ago

You say the key is to win and then you cite stats; often there is an inverse correlation between good stats and winning. Calvin Johnson gone, suddenly the Lions are better, how about that?

Prescott a mediocre 16th with 3418 yards; yet first in wins with 11. Eff the stats.

Originally Posted by: Barfarn 



I can cherrypick statistics too. How about that Tom Brady, consistently in the upper 90s and 100+ in QBR? Not to mention not many picks. There's definitely a correlation between Brady and the Patriot's dynasty.

Also note the usage of the word "correlation" in your post, which should not be confused with causation.

And you don’t win by random players successfully freelancing; you win by 22 guys playing disciplined TEAM ball!

Stat wise Rodgers was unbelievable to tie game v. AZ; the reality is, it was STUPID. Statistically it wasn’t so pretty; but it was brilliant QB play to have two 17 play drives for scores in AZ game w/ Cobb and others out…BRILLIANT! That’s when I knew we were winning SB, Aaron was back; oops; but in last 1.25 Q of game dickhead Jay showed back up and, guess what, WE LOST.

Originally Posted by: Barfarn 



See the thing is, you have this preconceived notion about Aaron Rodgers. That he's cocky and arrogant and isn't a team player. As a result, every single time Rodgers takes a sack or Rodgers makes a deep pass that's incomplete, it's not play design, it's not the defense making a good play, it's not a missed or poorly run route, or just that y'know QBs are human. It's that Rodgers took a brilliant playcall by Mike McCarthy and decided no, I want to change this call because I'm not getting my way enough. Funny thing is, the same people that have this sort of attitude and chastise him when he fucks up are the same people that also whine about him when he throws deep balls that get caught.

I joked about Rodgers starting with a 3 and out v. Seattle; but on first down Rodgers passed on a guy open for 4-5 yards, scrambled and hit Jordy for 8. On 3rd and 2 he passed up an easy 4 yard completion for 1st and lasered one to Adams for a TD. Against Bears, Adams was wide open in the middle of the field for 18 or so yards and he probably would have got 10 more; but Rodgers heaved it to Jordy.

He’s successfully freelancing; but this is not why we won those 2 games; we won in spite of this horsecrap. Scoring a TD on 3 plays is infinitely less valuable then scoring a TD on 17.

Originally Posted by: Barfarn 



I'll agree and have already repeated ad nasuem in this and other threads that statistics are not everything (Gee, sure would be nice for SOME other people to possibly show some sign of attachment to reality instead of just gleefully making absolute statements). What I don't get is this - Scoring a TD on 3 plays is infinitely less valuable then scoring a TD on 17. True, but this statement by itself is about as meaningless as a statistic without context. This operates under the privilege of hindsight - When you're watching a game live (and gee whiz, when players are playing a game live), you can't go out and say hey, let's just aim for 4-8 yards a play to go for a 17 play drive, figuring that at best we'll have a 66% completion percentage. Funny thing is, even if that figure meant you were guaranteed to complete two out of every three passes (which you're not), you're still not going to complete a drive consistently. Guess what matters? Winning football games. How do you win football games? Score more points than the other team. Keeping the other team off the field is definitely a part in that which is where your comment about 17 play drives comes in, but if you're not scoring touchdowns and you don't have an elite defense, you lose. If you have a deep shot, take it. If you never take deep shots, you're not going to move the ball consistently.

It also ignores the fact that this isn't Madden where defenses will continue reacting the exact same way every play if you act the exact same way every play. If you focus on short to medium passes all the time, guess what? They'll bring the safeties up. They'll bring a CB on a blitz because hey, someone blowing coverage or missing a tackle isn't going to give a TD so the risk reward ratio is better. And guess what? With everyone playing so close to the line, that hurts your run game. How do you open up the run game? Pass medium to long, keep the defense honest.

Scoring a TD on 3 plays is infinitely less valuable then scoring a TD on 17.Now people are talking about him being MVP, he makes pro bowl, and, guess what, he regressed against the Bears. Sure he can get away with it v. Bears; they suck. But, here’s the thing: if Rodgers continues to regress back to the same ole’ Jay he was for the last 1.5 years instead of progressing to being Aaron Rodgers; it will be IMPOSSIBLE for us to win 4 games in a row in playoffs…IMPOSSIBLE.

If you want wins then you want Rodgers to play within the offense.

Originally Posted by: Barfarn 



Anybody saying that Rodgers should be MVP is an absolute idiot, even if he tears it up the next two weeks. Seriously, where have you heard this? Who said it? Or is this just a strawman?

I'm sorry, but who is more qualified to comment on what the Packers offense actually is, you or the coaching staff? You, because you watch the games on TV and maybe watch some press conferences? Yeah, coaches and players blow fluff up reporters asses all the time. But assuming that everything positive they say (or doesn't fit your existing viewpoint) is a lie is just as ridiculous and believing everything they say.
Porforis
7 years ago

Actually, both are worth the same number of points.

Originally Posted by: mi_keys 



Hey now, statistics don't matter unless the statistic is about plays per drive.
nerdmann
7 years ago
Fact is, it's a low percentage play. Further fact is, that low percentage is lower than normal right now because 1: Jordy isn't right and 2: Aaron hasn't been accurate deep the last two seasons.

Let's also factor in the wind as a variable. It's no coincidence that we dominated the third and the Bears dominated the 4th. Whichever team had that end, seemed to do way better. We didn't have that end.

Don't get me wrong, I'm glad it worked. But Aaron doesn't need more encouragement to pass up the guy open for a first down to hold the ball a few more seconds and chuck it deep. He needs more encouragement to get with fundamentals.
“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don't do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”
Porforis
7 years ago

Fact is, it's a low percentage play. Further fact is, that low percentage is lower than normal right now because 1: Jordy isn't right and 2: Aaron hasn't been accurate deep the last two seasons.

Originally Posted by: nerdmann 



Alright, this is where I check out. Now you're talking statistics which completely fly in the face of statistics I already put a lot of time and effort into compiling and contextualizing. Your perceptions don't match reality. Scroll up and read my post about this exact subject. It's clear you don't care even a tiny bit about being reasonable. Have fun.
Barfarn
7 years ago

Actually, both are worth the same number of points.

Originally Posted by: mi_keys 



True, until you get to the 4th Q and the pass rush takes an extra tick to get home and the CBs are 6 more inches behind their receiver than they'd otherwise be if they had played 14 less snaps that day.
nerdmann
7 years ago

Alright, this is where I check out. Now you're talking statistics which completely fly in the face of statistics I already put a lot of time and effort into compiling and contextualizing. Your perceptions don't match reality. Scroll up and read my post about this exact subject. It's clear you don't care even a tiny bit about being reasonable. Have fun.

Originally Posted by: Porforis 



I responded to those pposts when you posted them earlier. They do not address the facts.
“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don't do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”
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packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : the total and percentage are the same as the previous weeks
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Martha Careful (17-Nov) : chop block
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beast (17-Nov) : How so? (I didn't watch)
Zero2Cool (17-Nov) : Badgers got hosed vs Oregon
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