Barfarn
8 years ago

I can cherrypick statistics too. How about that Tom Brady, consistently in the upper 90s and 100+ in QBR? Not to mention not many picks. There's definitely a correlation between Brady and the Patriot's dynasty.

Also note the usage of the word "correlation" in your post, which should not be confused with causation.



See the thing is, you have this preconceived notion about Aaron Rodgers. That he's cocky and arrogant and isn't a team player. As a result, every single time Rodgers takes a sack or Rodgers makes a deep pass that's incomplete, it's not play design, it's not the defense making a good play, it's not a missed or poorly run route, or just that y'know QBs are human. It's that Rodgers took a brilliant playcall by Mike McCarthy and decided no, I want to change this call because I'm not getting my way enough. Funny thing is, the same people that have this sort of attitude and chastise him when he fucks up are the same people that also whine about him when he throws deep balls that get caught.



I'll agree and have already repeated ad nasuem in this and other threads that statistics are not everything (Gee, sure would be nice for SOME other people to possibly show some sign of attachment to reality instead of just gleefully making absolute statements). What I don't get is this - Scoring a TD on 3 plays is infinitely less valuable then scoring a TD on 17. True, but this statement by itself is about as meaningless as a statistic without context. This operates under the privilege of hindsight - When you're watching a game live (and gee whiz, when players are playing a game live), you can't go out and say hey, let's just aim for 4-8 yards a play to go for a 17 play drive, figuring that at best we'll have a 66% completion percentage. Funny thing is, even if that figure meant you were guaranteed to complete two out of every three passes (which you're not), you're still not going to complete a drive consistently. Guess what matters? Winning football games. How do you win football games? Score more points than the other team. Keeping the other team off the field is definitely a part in that which is where your comment about 17 play drives comes in, but if you're not scoring touchdowns and you don't have an elite defense, you lose. If you have a deep shot, take it. If you never take deep shots, you're not going to move the ball consistently.

It also ignores the fact that this isn't Madden where defenses will continue reacting the exact same way every play if you act the exact same way every play. If you focus on short to medium passes all the time, guess what? They'll bring the safeties up. They'll bring a CB on a blitz because hey, someone blowing coverage or missing a tackle isn't going to give a TD so the risk reward ratio is better. And guess what? With everyone playing so close to the line, that hurts your run game. How do you open up the run game? Pass medium to long, keep the defense honest.



Anybody saying that Rodgers should be MVP is an absolute idiot, even if he tears it up the next two weeks. Seriously, where have you heard this? Who said it? Or is this just a strawman?

I'm sorry, but who is more qualified to comment on what the Packers offense actually is, you or the coaching staff? You, because you watch the games on TV and maybe watch some press conferences? Yeah, coaches and players blow fluff up reporters asses all the time. But assuming that everything positive they say (or doesn't fit your existing viewpoint) is a lie is just as ridiculous and believing everything they say.

Originally Posted by: Porforis 



Correlation was the intended word. Often times selfish stat whoring leads to good stats, but can result in bad play and that causes loses. Dwight Freeney is a great example always going for the sack, and eff the run. Or Ken O'Brien who used to take the sack instead of the throw away to improve his stats.

There is no correlation between Brady and the Pats dynasty; the dynasty is correlated with his solid PLAY. If Brady plays bad, the correlation will cease.

I have no preconceived notions about Rodgers. You have a preconceived notion about what I say about him. I have praised him at least 100 plays he has made since I detected he was not playing as well. I called his throw to Nelson a HOF throw; I spoke of how he keeps the DL on its heels. Every praise or criticism is a scholarly judgment based on evidence, I almost always state the basis for my position.

I dissect the play, figure out the play and then see if he went through his progressions as coached. Adams was the third read on the 1st Seattle TD. The first read was wide open for a first; the second would have been a tighter throw, so can for certain call that an error. But, his skipping the first read was a HUGE mistake and assuredly this was brought to his attention during the game. So some of his long throw are good decisions completed or not; some are bad completed or not. A bad decision are no less bad because the ill advised play worked.

2014 Rodgers would have thrown to the first open read; 2015-16 Rodgers not so much. This is why I say he is playing bad...BECAUSE HE IS! This is why we lost control of our own destiny 4 weeks ago; this why there is no room for error in the next 2 games. Presently Giants are losing, if they lose Dallas will have nothing to play for, maybe they'll let Romo play for 2 or 3Qs. Not sure Dallas is favored Monday if NY loses.

Your take on the 17 plays is ridiculous. A game plan is put together and there are schock plays built into routes that also have shorter options. If 70% of the routes are 5-6 in variety and 25% are 10-15 and you run 40-50 or 60%, the game plan dictates that an 80 yard drive should last 8-10 plays. McCarthy is doing this on purpose, the shorter throws are built into the game plan to preserve the defense. In AZ McCarthy adjusted the game plan, the routes were shortened, the keys were changed for Rodgers to call pass or run after when Cobb went out. It was freakin brilliant and Rodgers bought in until he lost his patience and his poise. Watch how many times Rodgers called runs with 8 in box during the 17 play drives and in late 3rd and 4th Q. Watch his footwork, watch how long he stayed in pocket. See I'm not praising him because he did good and castigating because he did bad. He was doing everything right and we didn't punt; he started doing things wrong and guess what...that is causation!

Part of the reasons for signing Peppers was to give us waves of pass rushers; so the offense could play faster. If our D was 2 deep like when Reggie or Nitscke were here; you wouldn't believe how much this offense would be opened up, the routes would get deeper and there wouldn't be hardly a huddle.

McCarthy doesn't call more runs when were ahead. EVERY PLAY gives Rodgers the option. It's Rodgers that called those stupid runs in Seattle champ game not McCarthy.

Keeping the other team off the field is a myth. Only lousy basketball teams played the 4 corners; because if you were inferior to the team the more possessions, the less chance to win. In AZ, when Cobb went out McCarthy thought his team inferior, so he went to minimize possessions. But, if you are better, you dont want a game with 5 drives apiece; you want 13 to 14 drives apiece. It increase your chance win. But when your D is banged up, you cant afford to turn the ball back over every 2 minutes to the other team even if you score.

Now of course you take a deep shot when you can; but on 3rd down you don't pass up a sure 1st down to make a much lower % throw. Now if a guy is running wide open like Nelson v. Htn. then you make the throw; but that is almost a sure as throwing to a wide open guy underneath on 3rd down and 7. Many of the shock plays are designed for 3rd down; when Nelson ran his route, that DB anticipated nelson was cutting around 12 yards; but you take the sure thing before making the deep low % throw. That is staying in the game plan.

Yes the D change what they do constantly. It is fascinating. It takes me 16 hours or so the really watch a game; every play a 1-2-3 page narrative. And when I watch Mike adjust ad re-adjust ; it just makes me chuckle when people say he's predictable. Capers is not a brilliant as Mike; but he's pretty good.

😂 LOL, I am serious, google Rodgers MVP. Finally we are in 100% unison!!!!!!!! YIPEE!

The coaching staff never reveals the game plan and every now and then the players will let a morsel slip. And positive statements usually mean nothing at the PCs; but if a coach says something negative about a player, that you can take to bank. But sometimes positive stuff if its out of character can mean the opposite like; we have confidence that Coach x will be coaching next year after this 9-7 season, that's when ya know he's gone 😁.


nerdmann
8 years ago

All that tells us is how infrequently he's been connecting deep. Which is yet another reason I didn't like that last throw to Jordy.

Originally Posted by: nerdmann 



Earlier this season? Absolutely. Rodgers' career as a whole? He's been one of the better if not best deep passers throughout his career in terms of completion percentage. Your observations simply do not match up with the facts. He's been connecting on average just under 50% of the time. I'd love to give you exact stats and rankings, but I don't have PFF's premium stats, so I'll have to rely on a few articles to prove my point.

Sources:
2015: Rodgers at 51.6%, a clear #1 (next most accurate is 43.2%)
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2491902-aaron-rodgers-big-ben-orjay-cutler-ranking-the-nfls-best-deep-passers 

2009-2012: Rodgers at 46.5%, #7 among QBs during that period
https://www.profootballfocus.com/three-years-of-deep-passing/ 

2013: 48.8%, or 5th in the league
http://deadspin.com/charts-who-are-the-best-deep-passers-in-the-nfl-1469917039 


Side note: I legitimately like that half the time we're in complete agreement on topics, and the other half we're in complete disagreement.

Originally Posted by: Porforis 



Not only did I respond to what you previously said, you agreed with me. 🤣
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