Wade
  • Wade
  • Veteran Member
8 years ago

Well done nerd. I am amazed anyone would put in this much effort.

I wish someone would convince Teddy that you don't take flyers before the 3rd or 4th round. And the 3rd is kind of pushing it.

Originally Posted by: wpr 



You distinguish between a flyer (e.g. Khyri Thornton) and a reach, Wayne? I have a feeling that he may end up having to reach somewhat only because he can't get a trade partner that allows him to trade up/down for the right value. Especially if he has to stay put at #27 in the first.

To me an acceptable and often unavoidable reach is "up to half a round" for the top 50 picks, "up to 20-30 picks" for the top 100. Reaching more than that would fall into the "flyer" category. So, for example, I considered Mike Neal and Nick Perry reaches for where they were drafted, but'd have put Thornton, Jerel Worthy, Davante Adams all as flyers.

And do not be conformed to this world, but be transformed by the renewing of your mind, that you may prove what is that good and acceptable and perfect will of God.
Romans 12:2 (NKJV)
beast
8 years ago

we don't (apparently) WANT guys who fit our scheme. Dom loves those 4-3 guys.

Originally Posted by: nerdmann 



Maybe that's because they see the Packers defensive scheme as a 4-2 nickel defense, because that's what they run about 70% of the time as the NFL seem to be getting more and more pass happy and most (or maybe all) teams are running mostly a form of the 4-2 nickel package more than any other package.

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nerdmann
8 years ago

You distinguish between a flyer (e.g. Khyri Thornton) and a reach, Wayne? I have a feeling that he may end up having to reach somewhat only because he can't get a trade partner that allows him to trade up/down for the right value. Especially if he has to stay put at #27 in the first.

To me an acceptable and often unavoidable reach is "up to half a round" for the top 50 picks, "up to 20-30 picks" for the top 100. Reaching more than that would fall into the "flyer" category. So, for example, I considered Mike Neal and Nick Perry reaches for where they were drafted, but'd have put Thornton, Jerel Worthy, Davante Adams all as flyers.

Originally Posted by: Wade 



If I'm Ted and I'm in a conundrum like that at #27, BAM! Jaylon, baby!
“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don't do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”
wpr
  • wpr
  • Preferred Member
8 years ago

You distinguish between a flyer (e.g. Khyri Thornton) and a reach, Wayne? I have a feeling that he may end up having to reach somewhat only because he can't get a trade partner that allows him to trade up/down for the right value. Especially if he has to stay put at #27 in the first.

To me an acceptable and often unavoidable reach is "up to half a round" for the top 50 picks, "up to 20-30 picks" for the top 100. Reaching more than that would fall into the "flyer" category. So, for example, I considered Mike Neal and Nick Perry reaches for where they were drafted, but'd have put Thornton, Jerel Worthy, Davante Adams all as flyers.

Originally Posted by: Wade 



No a flyer and a reach are the same thing to me and I don't want to waste the first two rounds for sure and really the 3rd round too. Many of the busts GB has had occurred when Teddy tried to force the issue.

I understand outside the first 3-5 players taken, you will never draft a player exactly at the position value they are listed at. I also understand that the value that is attributed by the so called experts will differ, somethings a lot, from the value a specific team assigns to a player. But I can not see why a team, in the first round, would take a player that is rated 15-16 slots lower unless they are chasing a specific position and we know Teddy doesn't do that. He always takes TBPA. *wink wink*
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beast
8 years ago

You distinguish between a flyer (e.g. Khyri Thornton) and a reach, Wayne?

Originally Posted by: Wade 


No a flyer and a reach are the same thing to me

Originally Posted by: wpr 



I think often times flyer and reach are meant as the same thing, but I've also seen a few people use them differently.

The distinguish those people used was that a flyer is more of a term for a risky boom or bust type player with the player having a possibility of living up to or exceed where they were drafted but also could easily become a bust, and so it was more about taking a chance (or flyer) on their upside potential to possibly give you that return value. While reach was a term for a player you felt more certain about what they were going to deliver, and it might be good, but just not as good as one would normally expect with that level of a draft pick.


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wpr
  • wpr
  • Preferred Member
8 years ago

I think often times flyer and reach are meant as the same thing, but I've also seen a few people use them differently.

The distinguish those people used was that a flyer is more of a term for a risky boom or bust type player with the player having a possibility of living up to or exceed where they were drafted but also could easily become a bust, and so it was more about taking a chance (or flyer) on their upside potential to possibly give you that return value. While reach was a term for a player you felt more certain about what they were going to deliver, and it might be good, but just not as good as one would normally expect with that level of a draft pick.

Originally Posted by: beast 



I understand what you are saying but why would anyone "reach" for a player unless they thought they could exceed their anticipated slot? Thus a "flyer" too. At least for me. I don't mind it if people want to distinguish between the two. They have that right.
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beast
8 years ago

I understand what you are saying but why would anyone "reach" for a player unless they thought they could exceed their anticipated slot? Thus a "flyer" too. At least for me. I don't mind it if people want to distinguish between the two. They have that right.

Originally Posted by: wpr 



Normally it's a 3rd party who thinks the pick was a reach, such as some fans thought selecting Randall at 30 overall least year was a reach, while the Packers might disagree.

Personally I think drafting kickers/punters before the 4th round have been some of the biggest reaches in NFL history, but those that made the decisions might disagree.


But some of the reasons teams have reach for a pick

[list]
  • Because the team don't think it's a reach

  • Because the team has a very large need at that position
  • (happens a lot with the QB position)

  • Because the team really wants a certain player and doesn't think they'll make it to their next pick
  • (especially if you don't have a pick in the next round)

  • Because the GM might not know how to evaluate players
  • (often the case when Owners or Money Market GMs are running the show)

  • Can't find a decent trade back, and don't think any player is worth the selection
  • (Seahawks GM John Schneider, said they only rated 16 players in the 2015 draft as worthy of a first round pick and therefore their were going to be 16 reaches in the 2015 first round and that's why they traded their first round pick before the draft).
    [/list]
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    DarkaneRules
    8 years ago
    I'm always excited when we pick because I like being surprised about new players I've never heard of hopefully making a name for themselves in the NFL. Randall was amazing last year for a rookie. I was just in awe. He made mistakes here and there but you wouldn't see him make the same mistake twice.
    Circular Arguments: They are a heck of an annoyance
    Yerko
    8 years ago

    I'm always excited when we pick because I like being surprised about new players I've never heard of hopefully making a name for themselves in the NFL. Randall was amazing last year for a rookie. I was just in awe. He made mistakes here and there but you wouldn't see him make the same mistake twice.

    Originally Posted by: DarkaneRules 



    I remember being both shocked and disturbed by last years draft when Ted went back to back with the cornerback picks AND selected two guys that I either didn't know much about (Randall) or who I thought was more like a 3rd round pick (Rollins).

    Now I sit back and enjoy both these players wearing the Packers uniform and the Rollins pick is much better to me because my brother (a Bears fan) wanted Chicago to take him badly. Anytime Rollins makes a play, I let him know.

    Nerd- thanks for the big board. A lot of good players coming out of this draft. I wouldn't be upset at all if the Packers went with Jaylon at #27. Unless there is a player who magically dropped to 27, why not?

    Exciting to think about him playing for the Packers.
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    steveishere
    8 years ago

    I remember being both shocked and disturbed by last years draft when Ted went back to back with the cornerback picks AND selected two guys that I either didn't know much about (Randall) or who I thought was more like a 3rd round pick (Rollins).

    Now I sit back and enjoy both these players wearing the Packers uniform and the Rollins pick is much better to me because my brother (a Bears fan) wanted Chicago to take him badly. Anytime Rollins makes a play, I let him know.

    Nerd- thanks for the big board. A lot of good players coming out of this draft. I wouldn't be upset at all if the Packers went with Jaylon at #27. Unless there is a player who magically dropped to 27, why not?

    Exciting to think about him playing for the Packers.

    Originally Posted by: Yerko 



    The draft threads from last year for those to specifically are some fun reading lol.
    Fan Shout
    Zero2Cool (4m) : I'm not sure I hope for that. I'll be at the game.
    Martha Careful (14h) : I hope it is colder than a well-diggers ass on Thanksgiving night.
    Zero2Cool (22h) : doubt he wants to face the speedsters
    beast (22h) : Dolphins offense can be explosive... I wonder if we'll have Alexander back
    Zero2Cool (25-Nov) : No Doubs could be issue Thursday
    Mucky Tundra (25-Nov) : Bears. Santos. Blocked FG
    Zero2Cool (24-Nov) : Bears. Vikings. OT
    Mucky Tundra (24-Nov) : Thems the breaks I guess
    Mucky Tundra (24-Nov) : Two players out and Williams had an injury designation this week but Oladapo is a healthy scratch
    Zero2Cool (24-Nov) : Packers inactives vs 49ers: • CB Jaire Alexander • S Kitan Oladapo • LB Edgerrin Cooper • OL Jacob Monk
    TheKanataThrilla (24-Nov) : Aaron Jones with a costly red zone fumble
    Zero2Cool (24-Nov) : When we trade Malik for a 1st rounder, we'll need a new QB2.
    packerfanoutwest (23-Nov) : Report: Aaron Rodgers wants to play in 2025, but not for the Jets
    beast (23-Nov) : That's what I told the Police officer about my speed when he pulled me over
    packerfanoutwest (23-Nov) : NFL told Bears that Packers’ blocked field goal was legal
    packerfanoutwest (22-Nov) : 49ers are underdogs at Packers, ending streak of 36 straight games as favorites
    Zero2Cool (22-Nov) : 49ers might be down their QB, DL, TE and LT?
    packerfanoutwest (22-Nov) : Jaire Alexander says he has a torn PCL
    Zero2Cool (20-Nov) : Even with the context it's ... what?
    Mucky Tundra (20-Nov) : Matt LaFleur without context: “I don’t wanna pat you on the butt and you poop in my hand.”
    beast (20-Nov) : We brought in a former Packers OL coach to help evaluate OL as a scout
    beast (20-Nov) : Jets have been pretty good at picking DL
    Zero2Cool (20-Nov) : He landed good players thanks to high draft slot. He isn't good.
    Zero2Cool (20-Nov) : He can shove his knowledge up his ass. He knows nothing.
    beast (20-Nov) : More knowledge, just like bring in the Jets head coach
    Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : What? Why? Huh?
    beast (19-Nov) : I wonder if the Packers might to try to bring Douglas in through Milt Hendrickson/Ravens connections
    Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : The Jets fired Joe Douglas, per sources
    packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : Jets are a mess......
    Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : Pretty sure Jets fired their scouting staff and just pluck former Packers.
    Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : Jets sign Anders Carlson to their 53.
    Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : When you cycle the weeks, the total over remains for season. But you get your W/L for that selected week. Confusing.
    packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : the total and percentage are the same as the previous weeks
    packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : the total and percentage are the same as the previous weeks
    packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : the totals are accurate..nrvrtmind
    Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : I don't follow what you are saying. The totals are not the same as last week.
    packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : ok so then wht are the totals the same as last week?
    Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : NFL Pick'em is auto updated when NFL Scores tab is clicked
    Martha Careful (19-Nov) : The offense was OK. Let's not forget the Bear defense is very very good.
    packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : Who updates the leaderboard on NFLPickem?
    beast (19-Nov) : Has the Packers offense been worse since the former Jets coach joined the Packers?
    Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : Offense gets his ass in gear, this could be good.
    Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : Backup QB helped with three wins. Special Teams contributed to three wins.
    bboystyle (18-Nov) : Lions played outside thats why. They scored 16 and 17 in the only 2 outside games this year
    Zero2Cool (18-Nov) : The rest of the NFL is catching up to Packers ... kicking is an issue throughout league
    packerfanoutwest (18-Nov) : Packers DL Kenny Clark: We knew 'we were going to block' Bears' game-winning field goal attempt
    Zero2Cool (18-Nov) : Lions seem to be throttling everyone, but only (only) got 24 lol maybe the rain is why
    Zero2Cool (18-Nov) : Packers vs Lions game doesn't seem so bad.
    beast (18-Nov) : Dennis Green "They are what we thought they were, and we let them off the hook!"
    Martha Careful (17-Nov) : comment of the day Z2Cool "Bears better than we want to admit. Packers worse than we think. It's facts."
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