Mitigating Risk
Pack93z - PackersHome Member

So here we are, on the threshold of something that is uncommon in the game; changing a complete philosophy of playing defense in an offseason.

Although I happen to believe it wont be a revolutionary change, meaning that we will become a traditional 3-4 defense. But even in that context there is a certain amount of query to why the sudden shift in mindset and how to protect ourselves from failure.

Before I begin to break down my thoughts on the why question, I first feel I must address something that struck me amiss during McCarthys press conference announcing the hire.

I'm a big believer in the 3-4 defense Mike quipped.

If that is true then why not take that stand in the beginning of your rein here as the head coach? Why during the shareholders meeting last season did you endorse the defense as the tone setter of the team?

Sanders reluctance to change wasn't a revelation this season, but you endorsed it to the ninth before the season began. So I understand your desire to have more flexibility on defense, and I must add it is about time, but the move strikes me of some desperation to redeem a wrong. That wrong, is dragging your feet in making a stand of an ongoing issue from the start. You had to see the issues in the 07 season with lack of adjustment in numerous games in which the press coverage was getting torched. Or the failure of the defense to generate pressure when the front four struggled to get it on their own accord, failures in blitz packages tracing back to the 06 season.

Then you endorse that unit as the flagship of the franchise, only to see it sink that very ship with powder keg after powder keg exploding over the course of the 08 season. I understand the desire for an alternate path of direction, but talk about change; dropping a charge like endorsing a 3-4 concept as base is explosive in its own right.

Yes I am critical of the plodding pace to recognize an issue and pondering actions to make a change, but I applaud him at the very same time for finally making the change. Albeit I was far more comforted by Capers presser than I was of Mikes, a flexing changing defense is a must to continued consistent success of a defense at that level. My only criticism of McCarthys cleaning house and changes of direction this offseason is that he didnt clear the team of another area of concern, the lack of growth and consistent production along the offensive line. Maybe those changes are happening behind the curtain, maybe they are adopting more of a power blocking concept and taking advantage of Campen and Fontenos experience. Guess we have to wait to see if that change is forthcoming.

So back to why they may be making the change now at an unusual timeframe to make such a drastic change and some of the high level risk that may be included after the wrappers are torn off next fall.

The whys are complex and simple in the same breaths of explanation while the notion is radical there are compelling answers to the why question.

The main topics I will broach are:

Playing wide and deep
Speed thrills and kills
Pressure Points
Zone Blitzing
The economics of the game

Playing Wide and Deep

Like the 4-3 Man Over and Under, a three down front with upright backers to the wings give you a very wide base in alignment if you wish. Depending on the techniques deployed by the down line man, two gap and clog or single gap and penetrate, you can vary the look and within the same alignment make the defense very wide or deep with a simple shift. We will get more into that with the Pressure point discussion, but the main focus here is that this defense is not only more flexible in coverage and blitz, it is also just as dynamic against the run with the proper personnel in play.

With 5 players along the line and two deep, you have less natural gaps to allow the offensive team to form running lanes.. dependent upon your line calls you can create targeting problems in blocking assignments by shading the interior backers or moving them around presnap and still maintain balance along the defensive assignments.

The risk here is you have to have discipline in your defensive players to maintain their assignments, especially up front, and not breakdown. If you have a defensive lineman break off his assignment it allows the offense to get deeper into the defense quicker than the 4-3 and the potential for longer gains with more consistency is higher than a four man front where there is more balanced pressure along the offensive line.

Speed Thrills and Kills

Simply it allows you to deploy more agile and speedier players in the box, albeit it forgoes a little bulk and natural strength with it as well. Under the premise, it should strain the bulkier offensive lineman to get ahead of the play faster and place undo pressure on them in location and footwork in blocking. Basically, they are asked to hit a faster target, that in theory being deeper or wider in the defense should balance the scale a little in terms of strength and positional leverage.

This is my biggest area of concern with the switch, to this date I have seen very poor play inside the box from our current group of linebackers.. to have four of them on the field they are going to have learn to play better in the leverage game, with their hands to shed blocks effectively. They also are going to have to become more active and flowing to make it harder for them to be blocked effectively. No more sitting on their heels waiting for the play to come to them.. if they sit and wait.. the pain of an effective running game will be apparent.


Pressure Points

We all heard McCarthy use the word pressure points within the defense, what makes it different from a 4-3, where you can play man over or under shifting the front around.

Generally you have 3 stout players lined up on the defensive line, if they are man enough they are going to either force doubles to move them or in the least consume one blocker.. at the point of attacked.. the 4-3 is superior in terms of numbers and size.. but where you gain running a 3-4 is you force the offensive line to stretch their blocking assignments wider and deeper creating seams in which you can fill and attack the offense in the running game. In a 4 front, the olineman dont have to reach that far to block down or seal off.. in a three four you are putting that pressure into play creating points to attack the offense.

Why doesnt everyone use the 3-4 with some of the advantages.. well it is simple, it applies more pressure on your down lineman and you have to be very disciplined in your gap reads and assignments.. it is a less forgiving defense IMO.

Zone Blitzing

So we have attacked the point in the running game.. but this defense is just as dynamic on the passing game front if not even more.

You now have more speed on the field, widening your defense and forcing pressure on the offense.. you can vary the 4th, and if desired 5th and 6th pass rusher.. by lining up and showing blitz of a number of fronts you keep the offensive protection off balance, unsure of where the blitz is coming from and whom will be peeling off and dropping into coverage.. with that increased speed upon the field and lined up deep and wide, you have combinations of coverage scheme that just are available in a 4-3 or as effective.

Does that zone concept have to extend all the way through the back end of the defense.. not necessarily.. but traditionally it does. But queue up some Ravens footage and you will see a lot of man press from the corners and zone from the backers and safeties.. so it doesnt exactly mean the death of the press we so adore. Just varied looks to keep the offense in check and forcing them to read the coverage properly.

Folk wonder why the Packers defense collapsed late in games.. well with the offense knowing what the scheme was, they could step up to the line, not worry about coverage issues and attack the defense with what worked throughout the game.. pretty simple actually.

The economics of the game

The sheer number of tweeners coming out of college on a yearly basis is exceptional, most fit the mold of the pass rushing breed. Most tweeners fit horribly into a 4-3 defense.. not stout enough to play the end and not agile enough to play a OLB in a 4-3 with the coverage game.. one dimensional players more so. But with the NFL evolving more towards a pass first mentality, we should gain some advantage here in terms of applying pressure, finding that niche, and affording that niche.

Guess what, in this league you pay a premium for people that can rush the passer.. especially in a 4-3 alignment where the bulk of the pressure comes from the ends.. not an abundance of players that consistently provide pressure from that position.. which means a premium dollar must be paid.

With an abundance of tweeners each year, you can afford to rely less upon the premium players and the dollars they collect and reload talent with less issue. The choices and options become more vast with greater numbers, just look at the way Pittsburgh and Baltimore reload yearly.

But that is only one dimension of the defense, where you save and find talent easier on the edges, it is harder and costly to maintain talent on the interior. Quality Nose tackles are hard to find and just look around the league, guys that can play the nose command sizeable dollars late into their careers.. a 3-4 DE is just about as hard to find, that is if you want one that can consistently give you a pass rush push from the position.. see Richard Seymour as a prime example.

While some believe it is a cheaper defense to run, I say nay, the dollars are just shifted and spread out a little more equally.


Again, I dont see us becoming a static 3-4 traditional defense, but taking into account the variations one can set in the 3-4 alignment, some 4 man fronts in rotation and the notion spoken by Dom of adjusting the scheme to the talent at hand.. I see no reason that the risk of converting over in a single offseason will be any greater than continuing forward in a traditional 4-3 alignment that we have grown accustomed to the better part of a decade and a half, 1994 being the first year that we converted to the 4-3 base.

Is it September yet?

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