Okay, FWIW, here is why I think Ted Thompson isn't as good at drafting as people thinking, and, more importantly, he's not where he needs to be *given* his approach to *veteran* free agency:


1. First, my "grades", pick by pick. For 2013 and 2014 my rankings are more my "potential" evaluation. For earlier years, it is my assessment of the player's performance level in the NFL. I don't use "fail" or "bad" -- to me, "underwhelming" is sufficient. These are players that I don't think constituted enough value. "GPA" doesn't count 2013 and 2014; if it did, it would likely be a bit lower I suppose.
2. I do not consider "# of starts" relevant information. Draft too many underwhelmers and some of them get to start. Start too many underwhelmers and you don't have a good team.
3. I also did not adjust for position here. Had I, given how I value OL and DL relative to the other positions, most of the annual grades, and definitely the GPA, would be lower.
4. If we count "solid" as a hit, "extra base hit" as a double, and "underwhelming" as an out, then his batting average would be 0.287 and slugging percentage 0.564. To be honest, this was better than I thought -- not the "Dave Kingman of drafting" that I have labelled him in the past. Major league numbers, but is it enough to make the World Series if he only has one player in the bullpen because he doesn't use veteran free agency more? I don't think so.
(Aside: I didn't count either Murphy or Abbrederis (I didn't want to put a value on players that either didn't or havent played yet), Ted Thompson came up to bat 94 times. If I had to assign a value to either, I would have to put "underwhelming" on both, which would knock both BA and SP down.)

GPA (2005-2012): 2.54, or B-/C+

Year No. Round Pick Player Name Position College

Grade for 2014: Incomplete
2014 1 1 21 21 Ha Ha Clinton-Dix DB Alabama extra base hit
2 2 21 53 Davante Adams WR Fresno State solid
3 3 21 85 Khyri Thornton DT Southern Mississippi underwhelming
4 3 34 98 Richard Rodgers TE California solid
5 4 21 121 Carl Bradford LB Arizona State underwhelming
6 5 21 161 Corey Linsley C Ohio State underwhelming
7 5 36 176 Jared Abbrederis WR Wisconsin incomplete
8 6 21 197 Demetri Goodson DB Baylor underwhelming
9 7 21 236 Jeff Janis WR Saginaw Valley State underwhelming

Grade 2013: Incomplete
2013 1 1 26 26 Datone Jones DE UCLA underwhelming
2 2 29 61 Eddie Lacy RB Alabama extra base hit
3 4 12 109 David Bakhtiari T Colorado underwhelming
4 4 25 122 J.C. Tretter T Cornell underwhelming
5 4 28 125 Johnathan Franklin RB UCLA underwhelming
6 5 26 159 Micah Hyde DB Iowa solid
7 5 34 167 Josh Boyd DE Mississippi State underwhelming
8 6 25 193 Nate Palmer LB Illinois State underwhelming
9 7 10 216 Charles Johnson WR Grand Valley State underwhelming
10 7 18 224 Kevin Dorsey WR Maryland underwhelming
11 7 26 232 Sam Barrington LB South Florida underwhelming

Grade for 2012: C-
2012 1 1 28 28 Nick Perry DE USC underwhelming
2 2 19 51 Jerel Worthy DT Michigan State underwhelming
3 2 30 62 Casey Hayward DB Vanderbilt solid
4 4 37 132 Mike Daniels DT Iowa solid
5 4 38 133 Jeron McMillian DB Maine underwhelming
6 5 28 163 Terrell Manning LB North Carolina State underwhelming
7 7 34 241 Andrew Datko T Florida State underwhelming
8 7 36 243 B.J. Coleman QB Tennessee-Chattanooga underwhelming

Grade for 2011: D
2011 1 1 32 32 Derek Sherrod T Mississippi State underwhelming
2 2 32 64 Randall Cobb WR Kentucky homerun
3 3 32 96 Alex Green RB Hawaii underwhelming
4 4 34 131 Davon House DB New Mexico State underwhelming
5 5 10 141 D.J. Williams TE Arkansas underwhelming
6 6 14 179 Caleb Schlauderaff G Utah underwhelming
7 6 21 186 D.J. Smith LB Appalachian State underwhelming
8 6 32 197 Ricky Elmore DE Arizona underwhelming
9 7 15 218 Ryan Taylor TE North Carolina underwhelming
10 7 30 233 Lawrence Guy DT Arizona State underwhelmingf

Grade for 2010: B-
2010 1 1 23 23 Bryan Bulaga T Iowa solid
2 2 24 56 Michael Neal DT Purdue underwhelming
3 3 7 71 Morgan Burnett DB Georgia Tech solid
4 5 23 154 Andrew Quarless TE Penn State solid
5 5 38 169 Marshall Newhouse G Texas Christian underwhelming
6 6 24 193 James Stark RB Buffalo solid
7 7 23 230 C.J. Wilson DE East Carolina underwhelming

Grade for 2009: C+
2009 1 1 9 9 B.J. Raji DT Boston College underwhelming
2 1 26 26 Clay Matthews LB USC home run
3 4 9 109 T.J. Lang T Eastern Michigan solid
4 5 9 145 Quinn Johnson RB Louisiana State underwhelming
5 5 26 162 Jamon Meredith T South Carolina underwhelming
6 6 9 182 Jarius Wynn DE Georgia underwhelming
7 6 14 187 Brandon Underwood DB Cincinnati underwhelming
8 7 9 218 Brad Jones LB Colorado underwhelming

Grade for 2008: B+
2008 1 2 5 36 Jordy Nelson WR Kansas State home run
2 2 25 56 Brian Brohm QB Louisville underwhelming
3 2 29 60 Patrick Lee DB Auburn underwhelming
4 3 28 91 Jermichael Finley TE Texas extra base hit
5 4 3 102 Jeremy Thompson DE Wake Forest underwhelming
6 4 36 135 Josh Sitton T Central Florida home run
7 5 15 150 Breno Giacomini T Louisville underwhelming
8 7 2 209 Matt Flynn QB Louisiana State solid
9 7 10 217 Brett Swain WR San Diego State underwhelming

Grade for 2007: C+
2007 1 1 16 16 Justin Harrell DT Tennessee underwhelming
2 2 31 63 Brandon Jackson RB Nebraska underwhelming
3 3 14 78 James Jones WR San Jose State extra base hit
4 3 26 89 Aaron Rouse DB Virginia Tech underwhelming
5 4 20 119 Allen Barbre T Missouri Southern State underwhelming
6 5 20 157 David Clowney WR Virginia Tech underwhelming
7 6 17 191 Korey Hall LB Boise State underwhelming
8 6 18 192 Desmond Bishop LB California solid
9 6 19 193 Mason Crosby K Colorado extra base hit
10 7 18 228 DeShawn Wynn RB Florida underwhelming
11 7 33 243 Clark Harris TE Rutgers underwhelming

Grade for 2006 B
2006 1 1 5 5 A.J. Hawk LB Ohio State solid
2 2 15 47 Daryn Colledge T Boise State underwhelming
3 2 20 52 Greg Jennings WR Western Michigan extra base hit
4 3 3 67 Abdul Hodge LB Iowa underwhelming
5 3 11 75 Jason Spitz C Louisville underwhelming
6 4 7 104 Cory Rodgers WR Texas Christian underwhelming
7 4 18 115 Will Blackmon WR Boston College underwhelming
8 5 15 148 Ingle Martin QB Furman underwhelming
9 5 33 165 Tony Moll T Nevada underwhelming
10 6 14 183 Johnny Jolly DT Texas A&M Solid
11 6 16 185 Tyrone Culver DB Fresno State underwhelming
12 7 45 253 Dave Tollefson DE Northwest Missouri State solid (though elsewhere)

Grade for 2005: A. Two home runs, and a solid contributor.
2005 1 1 24 24 Aaron Rodgers QB California HOME RUN
2 2 19 51 Nick Collins DB Bethune-Cookman HOME RUN
3 2 26 58 Terrence Murphy WR Texas A&M no comment
4 4 14 115 Marviel Underwood DB San Diego State underwhelming
5 4 24 125 Brady Poppinga LB Brigham Young solid
6 5 7 143 Junius Coston C North Carolina A&T underwhelming
7 5 31 167 Michael Hawkins DB Oklahoma underwhelming [FWIW I loved this pick at the time]
8 6 6 180 Mike Montgomery DT Texas A&M underwhelming
9 6 21 195 Craig Bragg WR UCLA b underwhelming
10 7 31 245 Kurt Campbell DB Albany State underwhelming
11 7 32 246 William Whitticker G Michigan State

Originally Posted by: Wade 

Yes, Shields and Williams proved better than dozens and dozens of high draft picks.

They also proved better than thousands of UDFAs.

The point I think uffda is making -- and certainly the one *I* would make -- is not that Ted hasn't had some big successes. It is that he hasn't had *enough* of them.

If you are going to put more emphasis than the average GM on draft-and-UDFA-and-develop than other teams, it isn't enough to have some draft and UDFA successes. You must have *MORE* draft and UDFA successes than GMs who also have a lot of "veteran FA" in their quiver.

I haven't had time to do similar calculations for other GMS as I did in my last post. Nor, frankly, do I have interest. What I care about is whether this team, from its president on down, strives not just to "succeed" but to *dominate*. And, when the part of the team has had a decade (as Thompson has), whether he *has* dominated. I don't think he has.

I don't think as ill of Ted as uffda does. To me, he's better than the majority of GMs in the league and (with the exception of his OL performance) has been for his entire time in GB. But to me, "better than the majority" isn't enough. I want striving (and ultimately performance) that is top 3-5 top to bottom. Despite its OL (which I am *still* not satisfied with, by the way) GB has a top 3-5 offense. But they are not close to top 5 in defense or special teams or coaching. Or, IMO, at GM.

So they, and this includes Ted, are not good enough.

Winning the division every year is cool. But remember who else is in the division. I mean, come on, we're talking the Bears and the Lions and the Vikings. It ain't close to enough.

I want to be *that* team. The team NO ONE wants to play.

And that means I want the team led by people who strive to be *that* team. I want people who don't finesse things, who don't play the percentages, who don't talk about any given Sunday and parity and how the league has changed because of the salary cap or because of Some Factor Q. People who don't blame it on refs or weather or luck or pad level or coming out flat or anything else.

I want the team led by people who think its still possible to be John Wooden's UCLA or Vince Lombardi's Packers. People who think they're going to win by 20 every week even if the other guy's bring their A game.

People who, when they go home without another Lombardi trophy, say, "We're not good enough. Period."

That's what I want. And I'm going to keep bitching until I see that.

Originally Posted by: Wade 

I now regret asking TT's crowd to grade his drafts. After reading the first four picks I just had to stop. Calling Dix, Davante and RR "home runs" tells me that I wish I'd had teachers who graded like this in school. I would've been an A+ student without a doubt.

HHCD, Davante and RR do not look anywhere near home runs. I would say all 3 were okay. Hard saying which direction they're headed. Could all 3 turn into homers? Unlikely. Very unlikely. I'm not sure other than them being Packers why anyone would think those three were homeruns? Seriously, nerd, why?

I would grade them this way... HHCD between a B and B-, Davante a B-, and RR a C to C-. I did agree with your Thornton analysis and would give him a hearty F-.

Oops, just had to look at the rest. Bradford is a D to D-, Linsley I would give a B to B+... Goodson a D...and Janis a B.

Originally Posted by: uffda udfa 

I now regret asking TT's crowd to grade his drafts. After reading the first four picks I just had to stop. Calling Dix, Davante and RR "home runs" tells me that I wish I'd had teachers who graded like this in school. I would've been an A+ student without a doubt.

HHCD, Davante and RR do not look anywhere near home runs. I would say all 3 were okay. Hard saying which direction they're headed. Could all 3 turn into homers? Unlikely. Very unlikely. I'm not sure other than them being Packers why anyone would think those three were homeruns? Seriously, nerd, why?

I would grade them this way... HHCD between a B and B-, Davante a B-, and RR a C to C-. I did agree with your Thornton analysis and would give him a hearty F-.

Oops, just had to look at the rest. Bradford is a D to D-, Linsley I would give a B to B+... Goodson a D...and Janis a B.

Originally Posted by: uffda udfa 

I now regret asking TT's crowd to grade his drafts. After reading the first four picks I just had to stop. Calling Dix, Davante and RR "home runs" tells me that I wish I'd had teachers who graded like this in school. I would've been an A+ student without a doubt.

HHCD, Davante and RR do not look anywhere near home runs. I would say all 3 were okay. Hard saying which direction they're headed. Could all 3 turn into homers? Unlikely. Very unlikely. I'm not sure other than them being Packers why anyone would think those three were homeruns? Seriously, nerd, why?

I would grade them this way... HHCD between a B and B-, Davante a B-, and RR a C to C-. I did agree with your Thornton analysis and would give him a hearty F-.

Oops, just had to look at the rest. Bradford is a D to D-, Linsley I would give a B to B+... Goodson a D...and Janis a B.

Originally Posted by: uffda udfa 

It isn't nonsense. He played DT for Philly and dwarfed his Packers tackles numbers both seasons in Philly and had 9.5 sacks from the DT position. Do you want to take a look at Ryan Pickett's numbers and compare? Oh, but Pickett was a Ted Thompson FA and just a dynamite move, right? You posting stats minus context or ever having seen him play is what is nonsense.

Post up all the Packers DT sack totals over the past several seasons. Cullen was versatile and could play DE or DT and was a fine Packer. He was just a little too much like Clay Matthews in he was injured often. Remarkable he played all 32 games for Philly the next two seasons. You do realize Ted Thompson chose to give HUGE money to AJ freaking Hawk in favor of Cullen? You tell me what nonsense is again?

Originally Posted by: uffda udfa 

Another Dream Team Queen red-herring.

The Eagles in 2010 were 10-6, on the cusp and their GM went "balls out." He nabbed Jenkins from us; DR Cromartie, Namdi Asommugha (primo signing); Mathis, Babin, Peters; etc. what did they call themselves???? The Dream Team...LOL Wow, the Dream team only went 8-8; an then what, 4-12???? How is that possible w/ a GM doing all the right things like spending a fortune on a bunch of FAs? Ted Thompson is such an idiot for not doing this!!!!

IN GB Jenkins one-gapped on passing downs and in base 3-4 and CM3 got the attention; that's why his sack totals were as high as they were. When Capers didn't have a "jenkins-type" to play he went more 2-4-5 w/ the DTs 2 gapping and LBs getting the sacks/tackles. In Philly, they played a 4-3, not a 3-4 [Apples and oranges] Jenkins over two full yrs got 9 sacks; but only because all the attention went to Cole and Babin on outiside; compared to his DT counterpart in 2011 patterson came out on all passing downs and still had 2.5 sacks; in 2012 Cox was a rookie played 1/2 year and had 5 sacks to Jenkins' 4. 9 sacks is okay; but he only got them because other DLman that got more attention.

Originally Posted by: Barfarn 

Okay, FWIW, here is why I think Ted Thompson isn't as good at drafting as people thinking, and, more importantly, he's not where he needs to be *given* his approach to *veteran* free agency:

GPA (2005-2012): 2.54, or B-/C+

Originally Posted by: Wade 

AR12 is why we're as good as we are. Take any of the 31 GMs and we still win division titles. I would bet 16 other gms could get this franchise a ring.

Originally Posted by: uffda udfa 

I love when something like this is used as validation it doesn't work. Our first SB in 3 decades was due to Wolf assembling a dream team via FA.

Mike Vick wasn't good that season. It's too bad the Eagles got all the pieces but not a QB. Mike Vick isn't a winning NFL QB...

What Philly did has nothing to do with Ted Thompson overpaying Hawk while letting Cullen walk. Didn't work out real well for us but who notices when you deflect truth with shinola line by line.

Originally Posted by: uffda udfa 

AR12 is why we're as good as we are.

Originally Posted by: uffda udfa