Ron Wolf: Legend. Ted Thompson: Failure.· Page 20

gbguy20
Veteran Member

9 years ago

It isn't nonsense. He played DT for Philly and dwarfed his Packers tackles numbers both seasons in Philly and had 9.5 sacks from the DT position. Do you want to take a look at Ryan Pickett's numbers and compare? Oh, but Pickett was a Ted Thompson FA and just a dynamite move, right? You posting stats minus context or ever having seen him play is what is nonsense.

Post up all the Packers DT sack totals over the past several seasons. Cullen was versatile and could play DE or DT and was a fine Packer. He was just a little too much like Clay Matthews in he was injured often. Remarkable he played all 32 games for Philly the next two seasons. You do realize Ted Thompson chose to give HUGE money to AJ freaking Hawk in favor of Cullen? You tell me what nonsense is again?

Originally Posted by: uffda udfa

1. Fair point
2. I didn't look at Pickett's stats. Nor have I ever said any of the bullshit you just followed that with, so why say it?
3. I didn't look at the other stats. So you could very well have a good point, but you didn't bother to bring the stats with your statement, so who knows.

BAD EMAIL because the address couldn ot be found, or is unable to receive mail.

DoddPower
Veteran Member

9 years ago

#192

Who cares about grading individual drafts? If I'm interviewing a new employee out of college, I don't care about their Calc 2 grade, I care about the sum of the parts and overall skills. Is Sam Shields reflected in this?

Originally Posted by: musccy

This is a critical point. I think many folks would be OK with players like Sam Shields and Tramon Williams if they were first round picks. Finding very good players as UDFAs means every bit as much as finding very good players in the top rounds. It doesn't matter where they came from and how they got there. All that matters is that they become very good players that help the Packers win. Shields and Williams were/are better than dozens and dozens of high draft picks. Similar things could be said for our general mid-round draft pick offensive line, which is finally pretty darn good.

Wade
Veteran Member

9 years ago

#193

Okay, FWIW, here is why I think Ted Thompson isn't as good at drafting as people thinking, and, more importantly, he's not where he needs to be *given* his approach to *veteran* free agency:

1. First, my "grades", pick by pick. For 2013 and 2014 my rankings are more my "potential" evaluation. For earlier years, it is my assessment of the player's performance level in the NFL. I don't use "fail" or "bad" -- to me, "underwhelming" is sufficient. These are players that I don't think constituted enough value. "GPA" doesn't count 2013 and 2014; if it did, it would likely be a bit lower I suppose.
2. I do not consider "# of starts" relevant information. Draft too many underwhelmers and some of them get to start. Start too many underwhelmers and you don't have a good team.
3. I also did not adjust for position here. Had I, given how I value OL and DL relative to the other positions, most of the annual grades, and definitely the GPA, would be lower.
4. If we count "solid" as a hit, "extra base hit" as a double, and "underwhelming" as an out, then his batting average would be 0.287 and slugging percentage 0.564. To be honest, this was better than I thought -- not the "Dave Kingman of drafting" that I have labelled him in the past. Major league numbers, but is it enough to make the World Series if he only has one player in the bullpen because he doesn't use veteran free agency more? I don't think so.
(Aside: I didn't count either Murphy or Abbrederis (I didn't want to put a value on players that either didn't or havent played yet), Ted Thompson came up to bat 94 times. If I had to assign a value to either, I would have to put "underwhelming" on both, which would knock both BA and SP down.)

GPA (2005-2012): 2.54, or B-/C+

Year No. Round Pick Player Name Position College

Grade for 2014: Incomplete
2014 1 1 21 21 Ha Ha Clinton-Dix DB Alabama extra base hit
2 2 21 53 Davante Adams WR Fresno State solid
3 3 21 85 Khyri Thornton DT Southern Mississippi underwhelming
4 3 34 98 Richard Rodgers TE California solid
5 4 21 121 Carl Bradford LB Arizona State underwhelming
6 5 21 161 Corey Linsley C Ohio State underwhelming
7 5 36 176 Jared Abbrederis WR Wisconsin incomplete
8 6 21 197 Demetri Goodson DB Baylor underwhelming
9 7 21 236 Jeff Janis WR Saginaw Valley State underwhelming

Grade 2013: Incomplete
2013 1 1 26 26 Datone Jones DE UCLA underwhelming
2 2 29 61 Eddie Lacy RB Alabama extra base hit
3 4 12 109 David Bakhtiari T Colorado underwhelming
4 4 25 122 J.C. Tretter T Cornell underwhelming
5 4 28 125 Johnathan Franklin RB UCLA underwhelming
6 5 26 159 Micah Hyde DB Iowa solid
7 5 34 167 Josh Boyd DE Mississippi State underwhelming
8 6 25 193 Nate Palmer LB Illinois State underwhelming
9 7 10 216 Charles Johnson WR Grand Valley State underwhelming
10 7 18 224 Kevin Dorsey WR Maryland underwhelming
11 7 26 232 Sam Barrington LB South Florida underwhelming

Grade for 2012: C-
2012 1 1 28 28 Nick Perry DE USC underwhelming
2 2 19 51 Jerel Worthy DT Michigan State underwhelming
3 2 30 62 Casey Hayward DB Vanderbilt solid
4 4 37 132 Mike Daniels DT Iowa solid
5 4 38 133 Jeron McMillian DB Maine underwhelming
6 5 28 163 Terrell Manning LB North Carolina State underwhelming
7 7 34 241 Andrew Datko T Florida State underwhelming
8 7 36 243 B.J. Coleman QB Tennessee-Chattanooga underwhelming

Grade for 2011: D
2011 1 1 32 32 Derek Sherrod T Mississippi State underwhelming
2 2 32 64 Randall Cobb WR Kentucky homerun
3 3 32 96 Alex Green RB Hawaii underwhelming
4 4 34 131 Davon House DB New Mexico State underwhelming
5 5 10 141 D.J. Williams TE Arkansas underwhelming
6 6 14 179 Caleb Schlauderaff G Utah underwhelming
7 6 21 186 D.J. Smith LB Appalachian State underwhelming
8 6 32 197 Ricky Elmore DE Arizona underwhelming
9 7 15 218 Ryan Taylor TE North Carolina underwhelming
10 7 30 233 Lawrence Guy DT Arizona State underwhelmingf

Grade for 2010: B-
2010 1 1 23 23 Bryan Bulaga T Iowa solid
2 2 24 56 Michael Neal DT Purdue underwhelming
3 3 7 71 Morgan Burnett DB Georgia Tech solid
4 5 23 154 Andrew Quarless TE Penn State solid
5 5 38 169 Marshall Newhouse G Texas Christian underwhelming
6 6 24 193 James Stark RB Buffalo solid
7 7 23 230 C.J. Wilson DE East Carolina underwhelming

Grade for 2009: C+
2009 1 1 9 9 B.J. Raji DT Boston College underwhelming
2 1 26 26 Clay Matthews LB USC home run
3 4 9 109 T.J. Lang T Eastern Michigan solid
4 5 9 145 Quinn Johnson RB Louisiana State underwhelming
5 5 26 162 Jamon Meredith T South Carolina underwhelming
6 6 9 182 Jarius Wynn DE Georgia underwhelming
7 6 14 187 Brandon Underwood DB Cincinnati underwhelming
8 7 9 218 Brad Jones LB Colorado underwhelming

Grade for 2008: B+
2008 1 2 5 36 Jordy Nelson WR Kansas State home run
2 2 25 56 Brian Brohm QB Louisville underwhelming
3 2 29 60 Patrick Lee DB Auburn underwhelming
4 3 28 91 Jermichael Finley TE Texas extra base hit
5 4 3 102 Jeremy Thompson DE Wake Forest underwhelming
6 4 36 135 Josh Sitton T Central Florida home run
7 5 15 150 Breno Giacomini T Louisville underwhelming
8 7 2 209 Matt Flynn QB Louisiana State solid
9 7 10 217 Brett Swain WR San Diego State underwhelming

Grade for 2007: C+
2007 1 1 16 16 Justin Harrell DT Tennessee underwhelming
2 2 31 63 Brandon Jackson RB Nebraska underwhelming
3 3 14 78 James Jones WR San Jose State extra base hit
4 3 26 89 Aaron Rouse DB Virginia Tech underwhelming
5 4 20 119 Allen Barbre T Missouri Southern State underwhelming
6 5 20 157 David Clowney WR Virginia Tech underwhelming
7 6 17 191 Korey Hall LB Boise State underwhelming
8 6 18 192 Desmond Bishop LB California solid
9 6 19 193 Mason Crosby K Colorado extra base hit
10 7 18 228 DeShawn Wynn RB Florida underwhelming
11 7 33 243 Clark Harris TE Rutgers underwhelming

Grade for 2006 B
2006 1 1 5 5 A.J. Hawk LB Ohio State solid
2 2 15 47 Daryn Colledge T Boise State underwhelming
3 2 20 52 Greg Jennings WR Western Michigan extra base hit
4 3 3 67 Abdul Hodge LB Iowa underwhelming
5 3 11 75 Jason Spitz C Louisville underwhelming
6 4 7 104 Cory Rodgers WR Texas Christian underwhelming
7 4 18 115 Will Blackmon WR Boston College underwhelming
8 5 15 148 Ingle Martin QB Furman underwhelming
9 5 33 165 Tony Moll T Nevada underwhelming
10 6 14 183 Johnny Jolly DT Texas A&M Solid
11 6 16 185 Tyrone Culver DB Fresno State underwhelming
12 7 45 253 Dave Tollefson DE Northwest Missouri State solid (though elsewhere)

Grade for 2005: A. Two home runs, and a solid contributor.
2005 1 1 24 24 Aaron Rodgers QB California HOME RUN
2 2 19 51 Nick Collins DB Bethune-Cookman HOME RUN
3 2 26 58 Terrence Murphy WR Texas A&M no comment
4 4 14 115 Marviel Underwood DB San Diego State underwhelming
5 4 24 125 Brady Poppinga LB Brigham Young solid
6 5 7 143 Junius Coston C North Carolina A&T underwhelming
7 5 31 167 Michael Hawkins DB Oklahoma underwhelming [FWIW I loved this pick at the time]
8 6 6 180 Mike Montgomery DT Texas A&M underwhelming
9 6 21 195 Craig Bragg WR UCLA b underwhelming
10 7 31 245 Kurt Campbell DB Albany State underwhelming
11 7 32 246 William Whitticker G Michigan State

underwhelming

And do not be conformed to this world, but be transformed by the renewing of your mind, that you may prove what is that good and acceptable and perfect will of God.
Romans 12:2 (NKJV)

Porforis
Veteran Member

9 years ago

#194

Can't we all just agree that we're all too lazy to do an in-depth analysis of a few other teams at the top of the NFL success pile and compare their drafts to ours based on quantifiable metrics like stats? Although Wade did a terrific job of outlining the last decade or so. Might not agree with all of the grades but it's something.

Wade
Veteran Member

9 years ago

#195

Originally Posted by: DoddPower

Yes, Shields and Williams proved better than dozens and dozens of high draft picks.

They also proved better than thousands of UDFAs.

The point I think uffda is making -- and certainly the one *I* would make -- is not that Ted hasn't had some big successes. It is that he hasn't had *enough* of them.

If you are going to put more emphasis than the average GM on draft-and-UDFA-and-develop than other teams, it isn't enough to have some draft and UDFA successes. You must have *MORE* draft and UDFA successes than GMs who also have a lot of "veteran FA" in their quiver.

I haven't had time to do similar calculations for other GMS as I did in my last post. Nor, frankly, do I have interest. What I care about is whether this team, from its president on down, strives not just to "succeed" but to *dominate*. And, when the part of the team has had a decade (as Thompson has), whether he *has* dominated. I don't think he has.

I don't think as ill of Ted as uffda does. To me, he's better than the majority of GMs in the league and (with the exception of his OL performance) has been for his entire time in GB. But to me, "better than the majority" isn't enough. I want striving (and ultimately performance) that is top 3-5 top to bottom. Despite its OL (which I am *still* not satisfied with, by the way) GB has a top 3-5 offense. But they are not close to top 5 in defense or special teams or coaching. Or, IMO, at GM.

So they, and this includes Ted, are not good enough.

Winning the division every year is cool. But remember who else is in the division. I mean, come on, we're talking the Bears and the Lions and the Vikings. It ain't close to enough.

I want to be *that* team. The team NO ONE wants to play.

And that means I want the team led by people who strive to be *that* team. I want people who don't finesse things, who don't play the percentages, who don't talk about any given Sunday and parity and how the league has changed because of the salary cap or because of Some Factor Q. People who don't blame it on refs or weather or luck or pad level or coming out flat or anything else.

I want the team led by people who think its still possible to be John Wooden's UCLA or Vince Lombardi's Packers. People who think they're going to win by 20 every week even if the other guy's bring their A game.

People who, when they go home without another Lombardi trophy, say, "We're not good enough. Period."

That's what I want. And I'm going to keep bitching until I see that.

And do not be conformed to this world, but be transformed by the renewing of your mind, that you may prove what is that good and acceptable and perfect will of God.
Romans 12:2 (NKJV)

uffda udfa
Veteran Member Topic Starter

9 years ago

#196

Originally Posted by: Wade

I was going to like this more than once but all I would've done is remove the applause and put it back. Beautiful post. I don't dislike Ted Thompson as much as many think I do... What I despise is this unabashed gushing over him that is senseless and nothing but sentimentality.

If I just read we had a decent GM who could be worse, I wouldn't type a thing about him. When I read that he's an Aaron Rodgers of GM's, I just can't help myself.

Ted Thompson sits on his hands per former GM: "because they’ve had 25 fricking years of great quarterbacks. Of course it works. Try it without a special quarterback."

QCHuskerFan
Member

9 years ago

#197

2 real choices.
Ted Thompson and Mike McCarthy are above average as the Packers have consistently been winners in a super competitive league.

Or
Ted Thompson sucks. But McCarthy is better than Lombardi, Holmgren and Lambeau combined. Since the Packers are an extremely successful team in a super competitive league.

As competitive as the NFL is, it is impossible for both to be as incompetent as some would argue.

BAD EMAIL because the address couldn ot be found, or is unable to receive mail.

DoddPower
Veteran Member

9 years ago

#198

Originally Posted by: Wade

I don't think anyone is saying Ted Thompson couldn't do better. That's just silly. I certainly haven't said that, and I don't think I've seen anyone that has. What I have said, however, is that Ted Thompson is pretty good. I think he's above average overall, and excels in certain areas such as the salary cap, wide receivers, getting team friendly contracts, etc. I think the Packers could easily be champions again with the addition of a couple more very good players. Perhaps three. I think it will be possible to get another couple good players in this draft. If so, I expect the Packers will be seriously competing for a Super Bowl again this season and next season, at the least. While it could be better, that's pretty good. Obviously we all want the "dominant" thing you constantly preach. Who wouldn't? That's not something unique to you. But if I can't have that, I'll still be pretty happy with another Super Bowl victory. As long as Ted Thompson has another good draft like he did last season, I think the Packers are well-positioned to obtain another Lombardi.

Also, I still think Aaron Rodgers needs to play better in the playoffs. I want to see more than just one great playoff run out of possibly "the best ever."

nerdmann
Premier Member

9 years ago

#199

Year No. Round Pick Player Name Position

2014 1 1 21 21 Ha Ha Clinton-Dix TBD, looks like a home run.
2 2 21 53 Davante Adams WR TBD, looks like a home run.
3 3 21 85 Khyri Thornton DT TBD, looks like a bust, calculated gamble on talent/drive
4 3 34 98 Richard Rodgers TE TBD, home run, not a speed burner but gets it done
5 4 21 121 Carl Bradford LB TBD, move him to his actual position, see what happens.
6 5 21 161 Corey Linsley C TBD, home run, came in as a rookie, played high level
7 5 36 176 Jared Abbrederis TBD, injury
8 6 21 197 Demetri Goodson TBD, looks like a project at best.
9 7 21 236 Jeff Janis WR TBD, looks raw but has the skills. what you want in a 7th.

2013 1 1 26 26 Datone Jones DE Solid, slowed by injuries
2 2 29 61 Eddie Lacy RB Alabama Home run
3 4 12 109 David Bakhtiari T Home run
4 4 25 122 J.C. Tretter T TBD, slowed by injuries, versatility opens extra roster spot
5 4 28 125 Johnathan Franklin RB Injury, dude was the real deal. HOME RUN for Ted.
6 5 26 159 Micah Hyde DB Very solid
7 5 34 167 Josh Boyd DE Solid
8 6 25 193 Nate PalmerLB Busted at OLB, gets a shot inside this year, where he belongs
9 7 10 216 Charles Johnson WR F' up by training staff. performing well elsewhere.
10 7 18 224 Kevin Dorsey WR Slowed by injury, good enough for NFL, not for GB
11 7 26 232 Sam Barrington LB Played solidly in first year of action. Potential starter

2012 1 1 28 28 Nick Perry DESlowed by injury, high level when healthy. Needs pitch count
2 2 19 51 Jerel WorthyDT Injury, had ok as rookie, still in league, not good enough for GB
3 2 30 62 Casey Hayward DB Elite
4 4 37 132 Mike Daniels DT Very good, One notch below elite
5 4 38 133 Jeron McMillian DB Bust
6 5 28 163 Terrell Manning LBWasn't he ill in TC? Still in league, iirc. Not good enuf here.
7 7 34 241 Andrew Datko T Injury gamble, didn't pan out
8 7 36 243 B.J. Coleman QB Late round flyer, didn't pan out.

2011 1 1 32 32 Derek Sherrod T Horrific leg breakage, multiple surgeries, still in league.
2 2 32 64 Randall Cobb WR Very good
3 3 32 96 Alex Green RB Blew out his knee, never used properly, still in league
4 4 34 131 Davon House DB Got a big contract and starting opportunity elsewhere
5 5 10 141 D.J. Williams TE Never really stepped up.
6 6 14 179 Caleb Schlauderaff G Played elsewhere
7 6 21 186 D.J. Smith LB Blew out knee, played elsewhere
8 6 32 197 Ricky Elmore DE Late round flyer, stopped juicing at NFL level
9 7 15 218 Ryan Taylor TE ST role player, solid late round pick
10 7 30 233 Lawrence Guy DT Played elsewhere, just not good enough for GB

2010 1 1 23 23 Bryan Bulaga T Home run
2 2 24 56 Michael Neal DT Slowed by injury, role player.
3 3 7 71 Morgan Burnett DB Has chance to be elite
4 5 23 154 Andrew Quarless TE Solid despite horrific knee injury
5 5 38 169 Marshall Newhouse G Newhouse was LT for two years, still in league
6 6 24 193 James Stark RB Very good, a notch below elite
7 7 23 230 C.J. Wilson DE Solid pro, very good 7th round value.

2009 1 1 9 9 B.J. Raji DT Pretty good initially. Shot at redemption at actual position.
2 1 26 26 Clay Matthews LB Home run
3 4 9 109 T.J. Lang T Home run, not below elite
4 5 9 145 Quinn Johnson RB Solid 6 year career at obsolete position
5 5 26 162 Jamon Meredith T Still in league, not good enuf in GB
6 6 9 182 Jarius Wynn DE Stuck around for a few years
7 6 14 187 Brandon Underwood DB Bust
8 7 9 218 Brad Jones LB Stuck around, solid 7th rounder

2008 1 2 5 36 Jordy Nelson WR Home run
2 2 25 56 Brian Brohm QB Bust
3 2 29 60 Patrick Lee DB Bust
4 3 28 91 Jermichael Finley TE Notch below elite
5 4 3 102 Jeremy Thompson DE Injury
6 4 36 135 Josh Sitton T Home run
7 5 15 150 Breno Giacomini T Starter for SB champs, not good enough for GB
8 7 2 209 Matt Flynn QB Solid back up
9 7 10 217 Brett Swain WR Solid role player, blew out knee, played elsewhere

2007 1 1 16 16 Justin Harrell DT Calculated injury risk, broke leg, busted
2 2 31 63 Brandon Jackson RB Solid if unspectacular pro, great in pass pro
3 3 14 78 James Jones WR Notch below elite
4 3 26 89 Aaron Rouse DB Bust
5 4 20 119 Allen Barbre T Classic Mike McCarthy "smaller, qucker OL. Mike requested those, not Ted
6 5 20 157 David Clowney WR Played elsewhere
7 6 17 191 Korey Hall LB Converted LB to FB, solid role player, hung around league.
8 6 18 192 Desmond Bishop LB Inured
9 6 19 193 Mason Crosby K Elite kicker. struggled one year
10 7 18 228 DeShawn Wynn RB Late round flyer on talented head case, didn't pan out
11 7 33 243 Clark Harris TE Bust

2006 1 1 5 5 A.J. Hawk LB Solid, unspectacular, safe pick
2 2 15 47 Daryn Colledge T Decent starter, crazy wife
3 2 20 52 Greg Jennings WR Home run
4 3 3 67 Abdul Hodge LB Blew out knee, hung around for awhile
5 3 11 75 Jason Spitz C Mike McCarthy special, "smaller quicker" olinemen
6 4 7 104 Cory Rodgers WR Didn't pan out as returner
7 4 18 115 Will Blackmon WR DB. Good returner, played elsewhere, brittle feet.
8 5 15 148 Ingle Martin QB Ty Detmer clone
9 5 33 165 Tony Moll T Mike McCarthy requested these "smaller quicker" guys. sucked
10 6 14 183 Johnny Jolly DT Very good, had off field issues
11 6 16 185 Tyrone Culver DB Don't recall
12 7 45 253 Dave Tollefson DE Solid

2005 1 1 24 24 Aaron Rodgers QB HOME RUN
2 2 19 51 Nick Collins DB HOME RUN
3 2 26 58 Terrence Murphy Home run, spinal stenosis
4 4 14 115 Marviel Underwood DB Hung around, underwhelmed
5 4 24 125 Brady Poppinga LB Solid role player, depth
6 5 7 143 Junius Coston C Mike McCarthy special. ("smaller/qucker" oline)
7 5 31 167 Michael Hawkins DB Underwhelmed
8 6 6 180 Mike Montgomery DT Nothing special
9 6 21 195 Craig Bragg WR Bust, don't really recall
10 7 31 245 Kurt Campbell DB Don't recall
11 7 32 246 William Whitticker G Another Mike McCarthy Special, but recall the contracts Rivero and Wahle had, Ted needed low cost alternatives, and Mike wanted to go with that "zone blocking" bullshit that required "smaller, quicker" guys. So I don't put these guys on Ted, that's on Mike.

“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don't do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”

uffda udfa
Veteran Member Topic Starter

9 years ago

#200

Originally Posted by: nerdmann

I now regret asking TT's crowd to grade his drafts. After reading the first four picks I just had to stop. Calling Dix, Davante and RR "home runs" tells me that I wish I'd had teachers who graded like this in school. I would've been an A+ student without a doubt.

HHCD, Davante and RR do not look anywhere near home runs. I would say all 3 were okay. Hard saying which direction they're headed. Could all 3 turn into homers? Unlikely. Very unlikely. I'm not sure other than them being Packers why anyone would think those three were homeruns? Seriously, nerd, why?

I would grade them this way... HHCD between a B and B-, Davante a B-, and RR a C to C-. I did agree with your Thornton analysis and would give him a hearty F-.

Oops, just had to look at the rest. Bradford is a D to D-, Linsley I would give a B to B+... Goodson a D...and Janis a B.

Ted Thompson sits on his hands per former GM: "because they’ve had 25 fricking years of great quarterbacks. Of course it works. Try it without a special quarterback."

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packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : the total and percentage are the same as the previous weeks

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Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : Offense gets his ass in gear, this could be good.

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beast (17-Nov) : That's great news and Packers need to keep upgrading their OL, DL and DBs this off-season, so missing one guy doesn't kill them

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