Ron Wolf: Legend. Ted Thompson: Failure.· Page 21

gbguy20
Veteran Member

9 years ago

Okay, FWIW, here is why I think Ted Thompson isn't as good at drafting as people thinking, and, more importantly, he's not where he needs to be *given* his approach to *veteran* free agency:

1. First, my "grades", pick by pick. For 2013 and 2014 my rankings are more my "potential" evaluation. For earlier years, it is my assessment of the player's performance level in the NFL. I don't use "fail" or "bad" -- to me, "underwhelming" is sufficient. These are players that I don't think constituted enough value. "GPA" doesn't count 2013 and 2014; if it did, it would likely be a bit lower I suppose.
2. I do not consider "# of starts" relevant information. Draft too many underwhelmers and some of them get to start. Start too many underwhelmers and you don't have a good team.
3. I also did not adjust for position here. Had I, given how I value OL and DL relative to the other positions, most of the annual grades, and definitely the GPA, would be lower.
4. If we count "solid" as a hit, "extra base hit" as a double, and "underwhelming" as an out, then his batting average would be 0.287 and slugging percentage 0.564. To be honest, this was better than I thought -- not the "Dave Kingman of drafting" that I have labelled him in the past. Major league numbers, but is it enough to make the World Series if he only has one player in the bullpen because he doesn't use veteran free agency more? I don't think so.
(Aside: I didn't count either Murphy or Abbrederis (I didn't want to put a value on players that either didn't or havent played yet), Ted Thompson came up to bat 94 times. If I had to assign a value to either, I would have to put "underwhelming" on both, which would knock both BA and SP down.)

GPA (2005-2012): 2.54, or B-/C+

Year No. Round Pick Player Name Position College

Grade for 2014: Incomplete
2014 1 1 21 21 Ha Ha Clinton-Dix DB Alabama extra base hit
2 2 21 53 Davante Adams WR Fresno State solid
3 3 21 85 Khyri Thornton DT Southern Mississippi underwhelming
4 3 34 98 Richard Rodgers TE California solid
5 4 21 121 Carl Bradford LB Arizona State underwhelming
6 5 21 161 Corey Linsley C Ohio State underwhelming
7 5 36 176 Jared Abbrederis WR Wisconsin incomplete
8 6 21 197 Demetri Goodson DB Baylor underwhelming
9 7 21 236 Jeff Janis WR Saginaw Valley State underwhelming

Grade 2013: Incomplete
2013 1 1 26 26 Datone Jones DE UCLA underwhelming
2 2 29 61 Eddie Lacy RB Alabama extra base hit
3 4 12 109 David Bakhtiari T Colorado underwhelming
4 4 25 122 J.C. Tretter T Cornell underwhelming
5 4 28 125 Johnathan Franklin RB UCLA underwhelming
6 5 26 159 Micah Hyde DB Iowa solid
7 5 34 167 Josh Boyd DE Mississippi State underwhelming
8 6 25 193 Nate Palmer LB Illinois State underwhelming
9 7 10 216 Charles Johnson WR Grand Valley State underwhelming
10 7 18 224 Kevin Dorsey WR Maryland underwhelming
11 7 26 232 Sam Barrington LB South Florida underwhelming

Grade for 2012: C-
2012 1 1 28 28 Nick Perry DE USC underwhelming
2 2 19 51 Jerel Worthy DT Michigan State underwhelming
3 2 30 62 Casey Hayward DB Vanderbilt solid
4 4 37 132 Mike Daniels DT Iowa solid
5 4 38 133 Jeron McMillian DB Maine underwhelming
6 5 28 163 Terrell Manning LB North Carolina State underwhelming
7 7 34 241 Andrew Datko T Florida State underwhelming
8 7 36 243 B.J. Coleman QB Tennessee-Chattanooga underwhelming

Grade for 2011: D
2011 1 1 32 32 Derek Sherrod T Mississippi State underwhelming
2 2 32 64 Randall Cobb WR Kentucky homerun
3 3 32 96 Alex Green RB Hawaii underwhelming
4 4 34 131 Davon House DB New Mexico State underwhelming
5 5 10 141 D.J. Williams TE Arkansas underwhelming
6 6 14 179 Caleb Schlauderaff G Utah underwhelming
7 6 21 186 D.J. Smith LB Appalachian State underwhelming
8 6 32 197 Ricky Elmore DE Arizona underwhelming
9 7 15 218 Ryan Taylor TE North Carolina underwhelming
10 7 30 233 Lawrence Guy DT Arizona State underwhelmingf

Grade for 2010: B-
2010 1 1 23 23 Bryan Bulaga T Iowa solid
2 2 24 56 Michael Neal DT Purdue underwhelming
3 3 7 71 Morgan Burnett DB Georgia Tech solid
4 5 23 154 Andrew Quarless TE Penn State solid
5 5 38 169 Marshall Newhouse G Texas Christian underwhelming
6 6 24 193 James Stark RB Buffalo solid
7 7 23 230 C.J. Wilson DE East Carolina underwhelming

Grade for 2009: C+
2009 1 1 9 9 B.J. Raji DT Boston College underwhelming
2 1 26 26 Clay Matthews LB USC home run
3 4 9 109 T.J. Lang T Eastern Michigan solid
4 5 9 145 Quinn Johnson RB Louisiana State underwhelming
5 5 26 162 Jamon Meredith T South Carolina underwhelming
6 6 9 182 Jarius Wynn DE Georgia underwhelming
7 6 14 187 Brandon Underwood DB Cincinnati underwhelming
8 7 9 218 Brad Jones LB Colorado underwhelming

Grade for 2008: B+
2008 1 2 5 36 Jordy Nelson WR Kansas State home run
2 2 25 56 Brian Brohm QB Louisville underwhelming
3 2 29 60 Patrick Lee DB Auburn underwhelming
4 3 28 91 Jermichael Finley TE Texas extra base hit
5 4 3 102 Jeremy Thompson DE Wake Forest underwhelming
6 4 36 135 Josh Sitton T Central Florida home run
7 5 15 150 Breno Giacomini T Louisville underwhelming
8 7 2 209 Matt Flynn QB Louisiana State solid
9 7 10 217 Brett Swain WR San Diego State underwhelming

Grade for 2007: C+
2007 1 1 16 16 Justin Harrell DT Tennessee underwhelming
2 2 31 63 Brandon Jackson RB Nebraska underwhelming
3 3 14 78 James Jones WR San Jose State extra base hit
4 3 26 89 Aaron Rouse DB Virginia Tech underwhelming
5 4 20 119 Allen Barbre T Missouri Southern State underwhelming
6 5 20 157 David Clowney WR Virginia Tech underwhelming
7 6 17 191 Korey Hall LB Boise State underwhelming
8 6 18 192 Desmond Bishop LB California solid
9 6 19 193 Mason Crosby K Colorado extra base hit
10 7 18 228 DeShawn Wynn RB Florida underwhelming
11 7 33 243 Clark Harris TE Rutgers underwhelming

Grade for 2006 B
2006 1 1 5 5 A.J. Hawk LB Ohio State solid
2 2 15 47 Daryn Colledge T Boise State underwhelming
3 2 20 52 Greg Jennings WR Western Michigan extra base hit
4 3 3 67 Abdul Hodge LB Iowa underwhelming
5 3 11 75 Jason Spitz C Louisville underwhelming
6 4 7 104 Cory Rodgers WR Texas Christian underwhelming
7 4 18 115 Will Blackmon WR Boston College underwhelming
8 5 15 148 Ingle Martin QB Furman underwhelming
9 5 33 165 Tony Moll T Nevada underwhelming
10 6 14 183 Johnny Jolly DT Texas A&M Solid
11 6 16 185 Tyrone Culver DB Fresno State underwhelming
12 7 45 253 Dave Tollefson DE Northwest Missouri State solid (though elsewhere)

Grade for 2005: A. Two home runs, and a solid contributor.
2005 1 1 24 24 Aaron Rodgers QB California HOME RUN
2 2 19 51 Nick Collins DB Bethune-Cookman HOME RUN
3 2 26 58 Terrence Murphy WR Texas A&M no comment
4 4 14 115 Marviel Underwood DB San Diego State underwhelming
5 4 24 125 Brady Poppinga LB Brigham Young solid
6 5 7 143 Junius Coston C North Carolina A&T underwhelming
7 5 31 167 Michael Hawkins DB Oklahoma underwhelming [FWIW I loved this pick at the time]
8 6 6 180 Mike Montgomery DT Texas A&M underwhelming
9 6 21 195 Craig Bragg WR UCLA b underwhelming
10 7 31 245 Kurt Campbell DB Albany State underwhelming
11 7 32 246 William Whitticker G Michigan State

Originally Posted by: Wade

Amazing post. The rating idea was great. Thank you for this. How much does that grade change if you include his hits on UDFAs in the same time span? Or would that not work due to arguments about whether or not his misses in UDFA would have to be included as well?

Yes, Shields and Williams proved better than dozens and dozens of high draft picks.

They also proved better than thousands of UDFAs.

The point I think uffda is making -- and certainly the one *I* would make -- is not that Ted hasn't had some big successes. It is that he hasn't had *enough* of them.

If you are going to put more emphasis than the average GM on draft-and-UDFA-and-develop than other teams, it isn't enough to have some draft and UDFA successes. You must have *MORE* draft and UDFA successes than GMs who also have a lot of "veteran FA" in their quiver.

I haven't had time to do similar calculations for other GMS as I did in my last post. Nor, frankly, do I have interest. What I care about is whether this team, from its president on down, strives not just to "succeed" but to *dominate*. And, when the part of the team has had a decade (as Thompson has), whether he *has* dominated. I don't think he has.

I don't think as ill of Ted as uffda does. To me, he's better than the majority of GMs in the league and (with the exception of his OL performance) has been for his entire time in GB. But to me, "better than the majority" isn't enough. I want striving (and ultimately performance) that is top 3-5 top to bottom. Despite its OL (which I am *still* not satisfied with, by the way) GB has a top 3-5 offense. But they are not close to top 5 in defense or special teams or coaching. Or, IMO, at GM.

So they, and this includes Ted, are not good enough.

Winning the division every year is cool. But remember who else is in the division. I mean, come on, we're talking the Bears and the Lions and the Vikings. It ain't close to enough.

I want to be *that* team. The team NO ONE wants to play.

And that means I want the team led by people who strive to be *that* team. I want people who don't finesse things, who don't play the percentages, who don't talk about any given Sunday and parity and how the league has changed because of the salary cap or because of Some Factor Q. People who don't blame it on refs or weather or luck or pad level or coming out flat or anything else.

I want the team led by people who think its still possible to be John Wooden's UCLA or Vince Lombardi's Packers. People who think they're going to win by 20 every week even if the other guy's bring their A game.

People who, when they go home without another Lombardi trophy, say, "We're not good enough. Period."

That's what I want. And I'm going to keep bitching until I see that.

Originally Posted by: Wade

Wade just became my favorite poster.

I now regret asking TT's crowd to grade his drafts. After reading the first four picks I just had to stop. Calling Dix, Davante and RR "home runs" tells me that I wish I'd had teachers who graded like this in school. I would've been an A+ student without a doubt.

HHCD, Davante and RR do not look anywhere near home runs. I would say all 3 were okay. Hard saying which direction they're headed. Could all 3 turn into homers? Unlikely. Very unlikely. I'm not sure other than them being Packers why anyone would think those three were homeruns? Seriously, nerd, why?

I would grade them this way... HHCD between a B and B-, Davante a B-, and RR a C to C-. I did agree with your Thornton analysis and would give him a hearty F-.

Oops, just had to look at the rest. Bradford is a D to D-, Linsley I would give a B to B+... Goodson a D...and Janis a B.

Originally Posted by: uffda udfa

I was kind of thinking the same thing - as in too many homeruns in that list. However, it really begs the question of how much you actually expect from your draft picks. For HHCD to come in as a rookie and become a starter and play at a relatively decent level, as a late first rounder - thats pretty darn good don't you think? Do you really expect late 1st rounders, and late 2nd rounders to come in and be all stars right away? I don't expect that on anyone except for the top of the 1st. So to be able to contribute in a good way right off the bat is deserving of a good grade in my opinion. A 6th round pick turning out to be a quality starter is a homerun, even if he isn't an all star, simply based on where he was drafted. I am never expecting anything out of 6th round picks, I always think they are lucky to make the team. If they actually become starters in their first couple of years, then that was a great pick and they are a homerun.

You've got to base your ratings on where they were drafted.

edit: I almost forgot. I see a lot of bad grades for BJ Raji in here. However, wasn't he exactly what we wanted from a top 10 pick? He came in and made an immediate impact on our defense over his first 2 years and was a large part of our Superbowl run. Shouldn't that give him a better rating? Due to his large immediate impact? We got what we wanted out of our first round pick, he contributed to our Superbowl victory. Would you rather have a pick who plays well his entire career, and never contributes to a superbowl win, or a player who has some strong years and helps us win one? Yes, I realize hes played like garbage since then. How would you all have graded him after his first 2 years? How will you all grade him if he blows shit up this season?

BAD EMAIL because the address couldn ot be found, or is unable to receive mail.

nerdmann
Premier Member

9 years ago

#202

Originally Posted by: uffda udfa

All as rookies.

Compare Davante to Greg Jennings and James Jones' rookie years. Nelson too. Hell, even Cobb.

Compare Rodgers to Finley's rookie year.

If you expect every single pick to be a pro bowler on day one, then yeah, you must be disappointed.

“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don't do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”

greengold
Member

9 years ago

#203

Originally Posted by: uffda udfa

Thank you for finally offering your analysis. I like Nerd's analysis too. Mainly because he obviously put some thought into each grade. Not just miss, miss, ok, miss, ok, D-.

I do understand the need for difference makers on the team. But not every pick that isn't a difference maker should be graded a miss. It is the GMs responsibility to bring in solid role players as well. Unlike fantasy football, you can't have allstars at every position.

Barfarn
Senior Member

9 years ago

#204

It isn't nonsense. He played DT for Philly and dwarfed his Packers tackles numbers both seasons in Philly and had 9.5 sacks from the DT position. Do you want to take a look at Ryan Pickett's numbers and compare? Oh, but Pickett was a Ted Thompson FA and just a dynamite move, right? You posting stats minus context or ever having seen him play is what is nonsense.

Post up all the Packers DT sack totals over the past several seasons. Cullen was versatile and could play DE or DT and was a fine Packer. He was just a little too much like Clay Matthews in he was injured often. Remarkable he played all 32 games for Philly the next two seasons. You do realize Ted Thompson chose to give HUGE money to AJ freaking Hawk in favor of Cullen? You tell me what nonsense is again?

Originally Posted by: uffda udfa

Another Dream Team Queen red-herring.

The Eagles in 2010 were 10-6, on the cusp and their GM went "balls out." He nabbed Jenkins from us; DR Cromartie, Namdi Asommugha (primo signing); Mathis, Babin, Peters; etc. what did they call themselves???? The Dream Team...LOL Wow, the Dream team only went 8-8; an then what, 4-12???? How is that possible w/ a GM doing all the right things like spending a fortune on a bunch of FAs? Ted Thompson is such an idiot for not doing this!!!!

IN GB Jenkins one-gapped on passing downs and in base 3-4 and CM3 got the attention; that's why his sack totals were as high as they were. When Capers didn't have a "jenkins-type" to play he went more 2-4-5 w/ the DTs 2 gapping and LBs getting the sacks/tackles. In Philly, they played a 4-3, not a 3-4 [Apples and oranges] Jenkins over two full yrs got 9 sacks; but only because all the attention went to Cole and Babin on outiside; compared to his DT counterpart in 2011 patterson came out on all passing downs and still had 2.5 sacks; in 2012 Cox was a rookie played 1/2 year and had 5 sacks to Jenkins' 4. 9 sacks is okay; but he only got them because other DLman that got more attention.

uffda udfa
Veteran Member Topic Starter

9 years ago

#205

Originally Posted by: Barfarn

I love when something like this is used as validation it doesn't work. Our first SB in 3 decades was due to Wolf assembling a dream team via FA.

Mike Vick wasn't good that season. It's too bad the Eagles got all the pieces but not a QB. Mike Vick isn't a winning NFL QB...

What Philly did has nothing to do with Ted Thompson overpaying Hawk while letting Cullen walk. Didn't work out real well for us but who notices when you deflect truth with shinola line by line.

Ted Thompson sits on his hands per former GM: "because they’ve had 25 fricking years of great quarterbacks. Of course it works. Try it without a special quarterback."

Barfarn
Senior Member

9 years ago

#206

Originally Posted by: Wade

Wade, I’m sure you can imagine I disagree [though doesn’t necessarily mean you’re incorrect]; but you had a couple of nice write-ups. However, if this evaluation is correct there is no way we’re a 12-4 team or the other GMs all got Cs and Ds.

Piecemeal evaluation is hard in football. 2 underwhelms; 2 solids and 1 homerun on an OLine=dead QB; but if those pieces play well together then it is as Aristotle said, “the whole is [exponentially] greater than the sum of the parts.” Part of the key to good drafting is making sure the player fits in to the different team cultures and schemes [Trust me, there is a special culture in that OL group]. And Daniels may be correctly viewed as solid; but you’ll see his grand slam value if he gets hurt, plays 3 tech in 4-3 or signs his next contract. [Note: if ya get a bunch of dream team FAs; the whole can be worth a lot less than the sum of the parts].
Ted Thompson put together a final 4 roster [final 2 if not Bosticized] w/ little use of FAs. It’s been said the strength of a roster is best measured by what other GMs will pay for the scraps: House got 26+M [not a single snap in playoffs]; Williams 21M/10M Guaranteed [Wasn’t starting in 2015] and most throwaways got guaranteed $$ [Jones and Hawk 500K; Lattimore 60K; Boykin 20K] and Bostic was claimed. Other GMs have great respect for this Roster. Now this either means TT’s a stellar drafter or has made up the supposed vet FA deficiency w/ UDFAs, which is an integral part of the whom to draft/whom not to draft process.

The ONLY WAY to win a SB, in this era, is to have a bunch of 1st contract studs. Vet FAs impede the process of developing those 1st contract studs.

uffda udfa
Veteran Member Topic Starter

9 years ago

#207

AR12 is why we're as good as we are. Take any of the 31 GMs and we still win division titles. I would bet 16 other gms could get this franchise a ring.

Ted Thompson sits on his hands per former GM: "because they’ve had 25 fricking years of great quarterbacks. Of course it works. Try it without a special quarterback."

nerdmann
Premier Member

9 years ago

#208

AR12 is why we're as good as we are. Take any of the 31 GMs and we still win division titles. I would bet 16 other gms could get this franchise a ring.

Originally Posted by: uffda udfa

Because they're already doing so well with their current teams?

Good to know you'd take Jerry Jones over Ted. What about Dan Snyder? What about the other GMs in our division? Pretty much a laughing stock if you ask me.

“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don't do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”

Barfarn
Senior Member

9 years ago

#209

Originally Posted by: uffda udfa

The point of exercise was to empirically and rationally using football acumen; as opposed to emotion, irrationality and football acumenlessness; to show that Jenkins was not Mike Daniels. And your response validates that position.

But, since you mention it, Grats on going to a different era to find a rebuttal to my FA sideshow banter. Remember the Seinfeld clown, "you're living in the past ma'am."

Every year 15 teams try this FA pile up crap and every year about 15 fail. Most becoming worse and then a lot worse. Philly is the rule, not the exception. How'd the Bears do w/ Bennett, Houston, Allen, Mincy, and their trades for Cutler and Marshall etc. How'd Denver do w/ ware, ward, sanders, Talib, Montgomry? I could go on and on.

In this era, every now and then a team wins IN SPITE of the fact they piled up FAs as the quantity and quality of the 1st contract studs overcomes the harm caused by the GM's stupidity in piling up FAs.

Barfarn
Senior Member

9 years ago

#210

AR12 is why we're as good as we are.

Originally Posted by: uffda udfa

WRONG!

Two years ago Sheriff Floyd wasn't the #3 player that fell to the 20's to Min; he was always a late 1st round/early second that the draftniks, who copy off of each other, got wrong. Adrian Hubbard was NEVER a 3rd round pick on ANY TEAM's draft board. And Aaron Rodgers was a late 1st/early second player. Compare AR's film to Dalton or Dan Persa from NU and you'll see.

When it was TT's turn to draft, Aaron Rodgers was either the last player in the tier so he was selected BPA or there were others in the tier and QB was position of greatest need, so with all else = QG/AR was BPA.

MacCarthy transformed Aaron Rodgers into a HOFer and transformed talentless noodle arm Flynn into a guy that Schneider thought was worth 3yr/26M/10MG. If Ted Thompson didn't draft AR; he'd have drafted Orton; Clemens, Whitehurst; Jackson; Kolb, Trent Edwards [this guy was talented-more than Brady] and/or Ingle Martin [LOL] and, maybe there would have been a swing and miss or two; but if not Aaron Rodgers today you'd be crying, "if Ted Thompson didn't draft HOFer Trent Edwards we'd suck."

why'd i just say all this...I'm stupid! Where would seattle be w/o Wilson; NE w/o Brady; Pitt w/o Rothlessberger; Indy w/o Manning? Duh! The Aaron Rodgers argument is the last gasp from a defeated wit.

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bboystyle (23-Dec) : yes due to tie breaker

Zero2Cool (23-Dec) : I mean, unlikely, yes, but mathematically, 5th is possible by what I'm reading.

Zero2Cool (23-Dec) : If Vikings lose out, Packers win out, Packers get 5th, right?

bboystyle (23-Dec) : Minny isnt going to lose out so 5th seed is out of the equation. We are playing for the 6th or 7th seed which makes no difference

Mucky Tundra (23-Dec) : beast, the ad revenue goes to the broadcast company but they gotta pay to air the game on their channel/network

beast (23-Dec) : If we win tonight the game is still relative in terms of 5th, 6th or 7th seed... win and it's 5th or 6th, lose and it's 6th or 7th

beast (23-Dec) : Mucky, I thought the ad revenue went to the broadcasting companies or the NFL, at least not directly

Zero2Cool (23-Dec) : I think the revenue share is moot, isn't it? That's the CBA an Salary Cap handling that.

bboystyle (23-Dec) : i mean game becomes irrelevant if we win tonight. Just a game where we are trying to play spoilers to Vikings chance at the #1 seed

Mucky Tundra (23-Dec) : beast, I would guess ad revenue from more eyes watching tv

Zero2Cool (23-Dec) : I would think it would hurt the home team because people would have to cancel last minute maybe? i dunno

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Zero2Cool (23-Dec) : I wanna kill new QB's ... blitz the crap out of them.

beast (23-Dec) : Barry seemed to get too conservative against new QBs, Hafley doesn't have that issue

Zero2Cool (23-Dec) : However, we seem to struggle vs new QB's

Zero2Cool (23-Dec) : Should be moot point, cuz Packers should win tonight.

packerfanoutwest (23-Dec) : ok I stand corrected

Zero2Cool (23-Dec) : Ok, yes, you are right. I see that now how they get 7th

Zero2Cool (23-Dec) : 5th - Packers win out, Vikings lose out. Maybe?

beast (23-Dec) : Saying no to the 6th lock.

beast (23-Dec) : No, with the Commanders beating the Eagles, Packers could have a good chance of 6th or 7th unless the win out

Zero2Cool (23-Dec) : I think if Packers win, they are locked 6th with chance for 5th.

beast (23-Dec) : But it doesn't matter, as the Packers win surely win one of their remaining games

beast (23-Dec) : This is not complex, just someone doesn't want to believe reality

beast (23-Dec) : We already have told you... if Packers lose all their games (they won't, but if they did), and Buccaneers and Falcons win all theirs

Zero2Cool (23-Dec) : I posted it in that Packers and 1 seed thread

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