Barfarn
9 years ago

It is just pain sad that it can't be admitted that draft status has a large effect on who is kept on a roster. I think back to Ahmad Carroll, Jamal Reynolds, Derek Sherrod, etc. You pay these guys a bunch of money and you're just going to cut them? Their draft status and money given to them makes cutting them over a better undrafted player all but impossible. To not recognize this as a way of life in the NFL?

Lots of respect to you, Barfarn...I love how you cut and paste from some of the pay sites to provide backing for your statement. Thornton was kept because he was a 3rd rounder. No other reason. Had he been a UDFA he's long gone.

Originally Posted by: uffda udfa 



First, I dont subscribe to any pay sites. There's a lot of free content out there.

Second, the Thornton stuff was 100% original. Some of what is written you'll find no where else but maybe in TT's confidential files. LOL

Third, ya gotta watch the game!!!! when watching try to understand the player's assignment; then evaluate how he did in the context of that assignment. If CM3 was supposed to maintain outside contain and he dives inside grabs the RB by foot for a 3 yard loss; he'll get big grades from PFF and the announcers; but he gets an F from the position coaches; well they may give him a D because it worked.

Fourth, one cant evaluate a move by Ted Thompson based on info that could only be learned in hindsight. Doing so only further evidences a Ted Thompson bias. The decision to not cut Sherrod looks good in hindsight. But what if the same decision was made on Mike Flanagan, Neal, Perry or Aaron Rodgers [none of these guys showed much in their early years]. If Thornton makes the team in 2015, it'll have nothing to do w/ where he was picked.

Fifth, oops i just remembered I subscribe to one pay site: "Siri Premium." I asked her if Ted Thompson keeps draft picks over UDFA and her response was: "Barfarn, are you a dumba$$; if Ted Thompson kept draft picks over UDFA; why in 2011 did Ted Thompson cut Elmore and keep Vic So'to [as well as walden, Zombo, Francis]; Cut Datko in favor of Adams and Vujonovich and Barclay; cut DJ smith and T.Manning and keep Lattimore; cut McMillian keep MD jennings; Cut Alex Green and keep D. Harris? shall i go on Barfarn?"
uffda udfa
9 years ago

First, I dont subscribe to any pay sites. There's a lot of free content out there.

Second, the Thornton stuff was 100% original. Some of what is written you'll find no where else but maybe in TT's confidential files. LOL

Third, ya gotta watch the game!!!! when watching try to understand the player's assignment; then evaluate how he did in the context of that assignment. If CM3 was supposed to maintain outside contain and he dives inside grabs the RB by foot for a 3 yard loss; he'll get big grades from PFF and the announcers; but he gets an F from the position coaches; well they may give him a D because it worked.

Fourth, one cant evaluate a move by Ted Thompson based on info that could only be learned in hindsight. Doing so only further evidences a Ted Thompson bias. The decision to not cut Sherrod looks good in hindsight. But what if the same decision was made on Mike Flanagan, Neal, Perry or Aaron Rodgers [none of these guys showed much in their early years]. If Thornton makes the team in 2015, it'll have nothing to do w/ where he was picked.

Fifth, oops i just remembered I subscribe to one pay site: "Siri Premium." I asked her if Ted Thompson keeps draft picks over UDFA and her response was: "Barfarn, are you a dumba$$; if Ted Thompson kept draft picks over UDFA; why in 2011 did Ted Thompson cut Elmore and keep Vic So'to [as well as walden, Zombo, Francis]; Cut Datko in favor of Adams and Vujonovich and Barclay; cut DJ smith and T.Manning and keep Lattimore; cut McMillian keep MD jennings; Cut Alex Green and keep D. Harris? shall i go on Barfarn?"

Originally Posted by: Barfarn 



This is by far your best work to date. Kudos. Elmore is the most compelling evidence he doesn't always keep the draft choice over the UDFA. You have to look at the draft choice for that current season... not a guy who'd proven over a season, or two, that he sucked like Alex Green, TM, and McMillian. All guys who showed they blowed. DJ Smith wasn't cut in favor of new draftee who outplayed him, he was dropped due to past injury and failing a physical. Elmore was just freaking terrible but if he'd been a 3rd round choice, he still would've stuck or stashed on IR like Thornton due to his draft status.

I do watch the games, and neither you, or I, know for certain what a particular player's assignment is/was on a particular play unless you're part of the organization or you know the guy personally. In watching games, I really really really really (4th one for you) felt Rolle played much better than Goodson. Of course, when you draft someone vs. add someone as a street guy, you are more invested, mentally, in the draft choice. He is a guy you scouted (most likely) and thought would be worth a selection. The street guy is typically a guy you had a shot at in a previous draft or current and didn't feel he warranted a selection. That, in and of itself, gives you pause in cutting your draft pick because you're going against your own evaluations pre draft. No question Ted Thompson had Goodson valued higher than Rolle and that's why Goodson was chosen and Rolle not.

Still, to defend the idea that "it never happens" that a draft pick makes a team over a street guy or UDFA just because he's a draft choice is completely inerrant and I don't need Siri Premium to answer for me...nor AskJeeves.
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Ted Thompson sits on his hands per former GM: "because they’ve had 25 fricking years of great quarterbacks. Of course it works. Try it without a special quarterback."


nerdmann
9 years ago

This is by far your best work to date. Kudos. Elmore is the most compelling evidence he doesn't always keep the draft choice over the UDFA. You have to look at the draft choice for that current season... not a guy who'd proven over a season, or two, that he sucked like Alex Green, TM, and McMillian. All guys who showed they blowed. DJ Smith wasn't cut in favor of new draftee who outplayed him, he was dropped due to past injury and failing a physical. Elmore was just freaking terrible but if he'd been a 3rd round choice, he still would've stuck or stashed on IR like Thornton due to his draft status.

Originally Posted by: uffda udfa 



I still like Alex Green. They just didn't use him correctly.

Plus he blew out his knee.
“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don't do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”
buckeyepackfan
9 years ago
Not sure what all this has to do with Goodson striving to be a starter?

He will compete with those already on the roster and those Ted decides to bring in.

Hopefully he will make that year 1 to year 2 jump that coaches expect and gets a chance to contribute on the field.

I was addicted to The Hokey Pokey, but I turned myself around!
mi_keys
9 years ago
Regarding the premise that players are kept just because of their draft status, since Ted Thompson took over as GM 9 draft picks have not made a 53 man roster for the Green Bay Packers. Almost once a year. In most cases, there were rookie or second year UDFA that made the team at that position or similar (e.g. a G/C in place of a G/T).

According to Spotrac, Demetri Goodson's highest cap hit in the remaining three years is just under $716K and the lowest is just under $536K. Evidently, only $103K is guaranteed. We're paying him peanuts, as you would expect of a player on a late round rookie deal.

The draft pick was a sunk cost the moment it was made. You can't go back in time and change the pick, that resource has been used and all sales are final. Arguing from the standpoint of "we spent a draft pick" falls under the sunk cost logical fallacy. I'd be willing to bet the vast majority, if not all NFL GM's understand that basic logical fallacy, otherwise they wouldn't be in the position they are in. Going forward, it would've cost us essentially nothing to cut the guy last preseason, and Ted Thompson knew that.

In short, I don't see an objective reason to believe Ted Thompson kept Goodson only or even largely because of his draft status. It assumes a correlation is the causation (draft pick was kept; UFA was not) and ignores confounding variables such as perceived potential (as others have mentioned). It also assumes Ted Thompson was acting irrationally and is not supported by TT's track record of cutting late round picks in favor of UDFA's. Ted Thompson may prove wrong but being wrong doesn't require irrational decision making.

Draft picks that did not make 53 man roster:


2005: Ted Thompson drafted WR Craig Bragg (6th / 195th overall), waived Bragg to the practice squad and then cut him that year. He never made the 53 man roster for the Packers.

That year, two UDFA second year WR's made the team: Jamal Jones and Andrae Thurman. Neither had played a snap their rookies years in 2004 yet that didn't stop Ted Thompson from keeping both over Craig.

In spite of being a draft pick that year, Ted Thompson didn't even keep Bragg on the practice squad. That in a year riddled with undrafted free agents filling roster spots due to the utter lack of depth left at the end of the Sherman GM years. Notable UDFA's that year included Samkon Gado and Atari Bigby.

2007: Ted Thompson drafted WR David Clowney (5th / 157th overall) and TE Clark Harris (7th / 243rd overall). Clowney was waived and picked up by the Jets. Harris was waived and then cut from the practices squad.

That year, Green Bay kept Shaun Bodiford and Chris Francies who were both second year UDFA free agent WR. Bodiford didn't have a career reception going into the year and Francies only had 2. No UDFA TE on the team that I can tell but Harris failed to beat out a 4th year Ryan Kruase who was a free agent come over from San Diego with 5 career receptions. Not exactly an established individual that we sunk a bunch of resources into.

2009: Ted Thompson drafted G/T Jamon Meredith (5th / 162nd overall) who was waived to the practice squad and then picked up by Buffalo that year.

That year, Green Bay kept UDFA rookie G/C Evan Dietrich-Smith.

2011: Ted Thompson drafted G/C Caleb Schlauderaff (6th / 179th overall) and OLB Ricky Elmore (6th / 197th overall) on to trade Caleb Schlauderaff to the Jets for a conditional 7th round pick (according to JS Online the Packers were going to cut him but were able to salvage a 7th round pick) and waive Ricky Elmore.

That year, Vic So'oto made the team as an UDFA rookie at outside linebacker. The only UDFA lineman we had that year was Evan Dietrich-Smith, who still had not made an appearance for the Packers. There was no recent UDFA lineman on the roster (unless you count Dietrich-Smith again, who had not yet made a regular season appearance for the Packers), though Ray Dominguez was on the practice squad as an UDFA rookie G/T.

2012: Ted Thompson drafted T Andrew Datko (7th / 241st overall) and BJ Coleman (7th / 243rd overall), both of whom spent two years on the practice squad but never made the 53 man roster.

That year, UDFA rookie G/C Greg Van Roten was called up for the Packers as was UDFA G/T Don Barclay.

2013: Ted Thompson drafted WR Charles Johnson (7th / 216th overall).

That year, second year UDFA WR Jarrett Boykin made the team.
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+3
Smokey
9 years ago
Dreams and goals are a necessary motivation to achieve. Demetri Goodson's goal should be to wake up from this Dream and realize that he'll lucky if he makes this seasons practice squad.
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buckeyepackfan
9 years ago

Dreams and goals are a necessary motivation to achieve. Demetri Goodson's goal should be to wake up from this Dream and realize that he'll lucky if he makes this seasons practice squad.

Originally Posted by: Smokey 



If what you are say I g is true, then that would mean Ted either drafted or signed an UDFA that outplayed him and won the job.

NOT EVERY PLAYER DRAFTED IS GOING TO IMMEDIATELY START!

It took Nick Collins 3 Yeats to develop into a starter then one of the best .

Goodson May never turn into a starter for The Packers, but what happens if he is the next Sam Shields.
Raw coming out of College but with all kinds of potential.

So you would rather Goodson come into this camp with the attitude of fuck. It, I'm never gonna make it, why should I try?

I was addicted to The Hokey Pokey, but I turned myself around!
greengold
9 years ago

2005:
Ted Thompson drafted WR Craig Bragg (6th / 195th overall), waived Bragg to the practice squad and then cut him that year. He never made the 53 man roster for the Packers.

That year, two UDFA second year WR's made the team: Jamal Jones and Andrae Thurman. Neither had played a snap their rookies years in 2004 yet that didn't stop Ted Thompson from keeping both over Craig.

In spite of being a draft pick that year, Ted Thompson didn't even keep Bragg on the practice squad. That in a year riddled with undrafted free agents filling roster spots due to the utter lack of depth left at the end of the Sherman GM years. Notable UDFA's that year included Samkon Gado and Atari Bigby.

Originally Posted by: mi_keys 



No fair bringing up 2005 UDFAs!! Everyone knows Ted Thompson was just sabotaging Mike Sherman that year. :crazy:

+1
uffda udfa
9 years ago

No fair bringing up 2005 UDFAs!! Everyone knows Ted Thompson was just sabotaging Mike Sherman that year. :crazy:

Originally Posted by: greengold 



Yup. And just ask the Ted Thompson crowd about him selecting Rodgers that year. Oh, what a great ballsy pick as the team "needed" help at a position that was much more likely to see the field that year. Isn't that always the defense for selecting Rodgers being such a brilliant move?

If you don't think Ted Thompson was happy to let our franchise suffer a brutal year so he could fire Sherman and bring his own guy in you're horribly deluded.

Back to Goodson...Whitt thought Rolle was the one with Shields type skills, but we held onto Goodson but I'm sure being a draft pick had nothing to do with that. Not a thing.
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Ted Thompson sits on his hands per former GM: "because they’ve had 25 fricking years of great quarterbacks. Of course it works. Try it without a special quarterback."


Zero2Cool
9 years ago

I remember most members being surprised that Goods on was kept over Rolle on final cut downs.

Originally Posted by: buckeyepackfan 



I remember seeing a handful or so, not most. And I also remember being confused by those few select people who were surprised. Between the two, neither of them was substantially better than the other. I think Goodson was hurt and maybe they felt 'hey we know what Rolle can do, its not much, maybe Goodson will be better' or something like that.

I mean really, he was what the 5th or 6th CB? It's not like they were ruining the future of the team by deciding on one over the other.
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